By Anton Lutter, MA.
More then ever the international press has focused on the Dutch parliamentary elections last April. The reason: the surge of populist influence in Europe. After the Brexit referendum in Great Britain the elections in The Netherlands would be the first parliamentary elections in Europe, before the much awaited presidential election in France on April 23 and second round in may, parliamentary elections in Germany on the 24th of September this year and quite unexpectedly general elections June 8 in Great Britain.
Europe was obviously relieved that the populist PVV (Party for Freedom) under its well-known leader Mr. Geert Wilders, although gaining 4 seats ending up a total of 20, didn’t become the largest party in parliament. What didn’t hit the international press was that beforehand most parties had excluded forming a government coalition with PVV, so in reality even if the PVV had become ultimate winner, they would never had obtained cabinet positions. If populism has been defeated is of course another question. Elections don’t solve problems good government does, so it is up to the new government to address the issues which underlie the existence of populism.
The march 15 elections with a record setting 81,9% turnout and 28 parties contending 150 parliamentary seats, have brought some significant changes in the political landscape. The government party VVD (Peoples party for Freedom and Democracy), with its leader prime minister Mr. Mark Rutte lost 8 seats in parliament, though with 33 seats still remains the largest group in parliament. Traditionally the largest party will take the lead in forming a new government, VVD minister of health, welfare and sport has been chosen to act as the so-called informateur, whose role is to explore possible governing alliances. The second government party the PVDA (Labour party) has taken the biggest loss in seats of any party in Dutch history. They went from 38 to 9 seats losing more then 1.7 million popular votes, meaning their participation in a new government is highly unlikely. Thus the combined government parties lost a total of 37 seats, the biggest loss since the elections of 2002.
Minister Schippers has chosen to look into alliances which include the most significant winners, being CDA, D’66 and GL. CDA (Christian Democratic Appeal) with 19 seats has ended being the third party in parliament. Under its current leader Mr. Sybrand van Haersma Buma the CDA gained 6 seats. Without doubt they will enter government again, being excluded in 2012 due to heavy losses. Since the founding of the CDA in 1977 they have been in opposition only three times and delivered the prime ministers up until 1994 and lastly between 2002-2010. The fourth party D’66 (Democrats 66) gained 7 seats also having 19 seats. Their party leader Mr. Alexander Pechtold, also a former minister of government reform and kingdom relations (2005-2006) is expected to enter the cabinet again. The “big win” has been GL (Green Left). The youthful leadership of Jesse Klaver has won the party 10 seats ending with 14 seats being the fourth largest party in parliament. GL, which has never been in government, have a strong left-green program which will make it a challenge to form a coalition with the previously mentioned parties.
Also remarkable of this election is the fact that parliament has to divide its seats amongst 13 parties, whereby DENK and Forum for Democracy have entered as new parties obtaining 3 and 2 seats respectively. DENK was founded in 2015 by two former PVDA members of parliament of Turkish descent who broke away forming Group Tunahan/Öztürk. They attracted mostly voters with a migrant background winning strongly in cities with large migrant inhabitants like Rotterdam, Amsterdam and The Hague, beating the PVDA in all instances. Strictly speaking Forum for Democracy is the sole new party in parliament, obtaining two seats in parliament, an impressive accomplishment considering that on the right site of politics many parties contended. This party campaigned on themes like ending political clique forming and the introduction of a binding referendum. PvdD (animal welfare party), 50+ (party for the elderly) and CU (Christian Union) also won extra seats in parliament, the latter having entered government for the first and only time in 2007could be considered so again.
The conclusion of the Dutch 2017 parliamentary elections is that although a more right-wing oriented tendency has increased, straightforward populism has not, also the loss of the PVDA has made the left-wing block smaller then ever. The Dutch electorate voted in varied way, but the end result makes a stable middle of the road government possible. More then likely Mr. Mark Rutte will return as prime minister, with parties like D’66 and CDA returning to power again. A coalition with GL would then make up a majority of 85 seats, although more scenarios are possible including forming a minority cabinet with changing support from different parties.
About the author:
Anton Lutter, MA. is a Consultant in Protocol and Public Diplomacy, former City Councillor of The Hague.
