By Corneliu Pivariu, CEO INGEPO Consulting, MG (two stars general – ret.)
A fulminant ascent of the French political stage of this young men, 39 years old, the founder and the candidate of En Marche! movement, established on April the 6th, 2016 only who won the first round of the French presidential elections and who is designated by all public opinion polls as winner of the second round (May the 7th) at a great distance from the second place, Marine Le Pen – the candidate of the National Front.
At the second round, he won with 66,9% against 33,1%, becoming the 8th President of France during the Fifth Republic.
A graduate of the National School of Administration (ENA) in 2004, he worked as inspector of taxes with the French ministry of finances (where he met Jaques Attali – with whom he maintains verry good relations), then for a period (2008-2012) in the banking system (Rothschild&Cie -Investments), from where his fortune originated. In 2012 he was appointed by the president François Hollande (both of them fellows at ENA and who knew each other since 2006) as the latter’s economic advisor and deputy general secretary at Élysée, and, in 2014, the prime minister Walls appointed him as minister of economy and industry, a position he resigned from in August 2016.
In November the same year, he declared he will run for the presidency as candidate of the movement he established, En Marche!, (a movement which, according to recent declarations, numbers already more that 200,000 members). Macron declares he belongs to the centre and there are enough voces reproaching him of betraying François Hollande when he saw the latter has no chances for a second mandate.
Emmanuel Macron is a product of the System (we consider that under this denomination there is a group of interests, mainly of economic and financial nature having objectives that differ from those of the existing political parties and that brings together personalities of the most important fields of the economic, banking, defense and security system and media life as well as of other important fields), who found a candidate able to coalesce the options of the electorate dissatisfied with the entire spectre of the political class and wins the position of France’s president.
Macron’s platform has six main elements: upholding culture and education as a condition for achieving national cohesion; modernizing the economy; job creation; reinforcing security; strengthening the democratic principles and institutions and defending France’s interests abroad as a major orientation of the foreign policy.
Here are some of the most concrete elements of the center candidate Macron’s program: cutting public expenditures by 60 bill. € yearly during the next 5 years; cutting corporate tax from 33% to 25%, a drop in unemployment from 10% to 7% and savings of 10 bill. € in unemployment benefits; increasing the defense budget to 2% of the GDP – according to NATO’s decision; reducing the number of parliamentarians by a third. In order to reinforce the national security Macron stressed the importance of developping the European defense system by setting up a 5,000 strong military force for defending the European Union’s borders.
The program provides as well for a 50 bill. € investment plan for 5 years, programes for the agriculture – for encouraging the local producers, the development of renewable energy sources, the development of the control mechanisms of the investments and orienting them towards the country’s strategic sectors. As far as migration is concerned, it proposes reducing the time of asylum granting to six months and all who are rejected must be immediately deported under escort, thus reducing the risk of the presence of foreigners without staying documents in France.
Emmanuel Macron is an opponent of the post-Brexit populists – and the vote in The Netherlands calmed the spirits in Europe, and is a proponent of France’s appurtenance and contribution to the European Union. Being approved by the banking system, Macron will enjoy its support if he continues the policies promised in this field.
How will Macron govern after the parliamentary elections of this year when, most probably, his formation will not succeed in obtaining the majority in parliament? How will he succeed in recovering France’s economy relegated to the 28th place globally as per GDP, with a continuously increase of the public debt since 2006 (64.3% of the GDP) and that reached 96% in 2016 (2,150 bill. €)? These are some questions only to which Emmanel (the God’s son in Hebrew), will have to find not only answers but to implement them too.
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About the author:
Corneliu Pivariu, former first deputy for military intelligence (two stars general) in the Romanian MoD, retired 2003. Member of IISS – London, alumni of Harvard – Kennedy School Executive Education and others international organizations. Founder of INGEPO Consulting, and bimonthly Bulletin, Geostrategic Pulse”. Main areas of expertise – geopolitics, intelligence and security.
