By Corneliu Pivariu.
The meeting of two hours and sixteen minutes (instead of around 30 minutes as planned) between president Donald Trump and president Vladimir Putin, a first that enjoied special attention from international mass media, ended in, at least from what is seen so far, an agreement for a cease-fire in south-east of Syria.
The difficulty of solving the civil war in Syria is proved once more by the fact that the two sides agreed upon a cease-fire in an area with a less complex situation. Moreover, it would be wrong not to add to it Jordan’s contribution, of King Abdullah II personally, who, in a short time president Donald Trump took over his mandate, paid a visit to Washington (he was also the first head of an Arab state received at the White House) and to Moscow too. Jordan further plays an important role for implementing the cease-fire agreed upon in Hamburg at July 7th as the six years of civil war in Syria represent a threat to the Hashemite Kingdom’s security, to Jordan’s economic and humanitarian situation.
The said cease-fire is important for Israel, too, as it stretches from Golan Heights to Quneitra, Daraa and Sweida regions.
Untill sending these lines to print, the cease-fire lasted in spite of some news insuficiently confirmed concerning bombing, by Assad regime of some positions in Sweida and the intervention, in the same area, of some forces of the 3rd tanks division.
No details of the understanding were made public officially and American sources who insisted on anonimity declared for Al-Hayat newspaper in London that the USA and Russia agreed upon Iran’s being denied access to south of Syria (what Israel wants) and also that president Bashar Al-Assad stays in power. Other security, military and political measures concerning the influence zones and keeping the security at the Syrian-Jordanian border have been agreed upon as well.
A fragmented opposition operates south of Syria (around 50 rebel factions – according to Jordanian sources), and efforts are being made that these forces be directed to fight Jahbat al-Nusra and Khalid Ibn al-Walid groups. Pacifying this area, especially around Daraa, will contribute to encouraging the Syrian refugees in Jordan to return home yet this implies granting certain important humanitarian aids.
Although some sources mention that this understanding is part of the larger agreement concerning the establishment of de-escalation zones agreed upon at Astana among Russia, Turkey and Iran, we think that neither Moscow, nor Washington want to involve Turkey and Iran in the said agreement and on July 10th the American Secretary of State Rex Tillerson declared that the USA are prepared to work together with Russia for establishing no-fly zones in Syria and the American Secretary of State Rex Tillerson declared, the same day, that Russia will continue to cooperate with the USA regarding the de-escalation areas south of Syria and added that Moscow, Washington and Amman agreed upon setting up a center based in the Jordan’s capital for monitoring the situation in the south.
We estimate that the Russian-Agreement concerning south of Syria is put in jeopardy by Iran that has considerable influence in Syria and that does not want its strategic interests of what is known as being the ”Shia crescent” be endangered.
Geopolitically, Syria is too little as well for being a basis of an USA-Russia understanding, yet the adage according to which the great ones agree on the little ones’ account stands perfectly valid.
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About the author:
Corneliu Pivariu, former first deputy for military intelligence (two stars general) in the Romanian MoD, retired 2003. Member of IISS – London, alumni of Harvard – Kennedy School Executive Education and others international organizations. Founder of INGEPO Consulting, and bimonthly Bulletin, Geostrategic Pulse”. Main areas of expertise – geopolitics, intelligence and security.
