By Corneliu Pivariu.
As he declared previously during the electoral campaign and at the beginning of his office, president Donald Trump announced and signed on May, 8th 2018, the United States’ unilateral withdrawal from what is known to the public at large as the nuclear agreement with Iran (The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA –signed in the 5+1 format with Iran by the USA, Great Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany after long negotiations, in July 2015). For those who did not remember, Germany’s inclusion into this agreement was the result of the fact it supplied Iran, decades ago, dual technology that benefitted the development of the Iranian nuclear file.
Immediately after president Donald Trump’s official statement, the Iranian Foreign Affairs minister, Javad Zarif, begun a rapid diplomatic tour to China, Russia and the European Union. An advisor of the supreme leader Ali Kamenei state that Iran will neither renegotiate the agreement, nor its missiles program. Moreover, certain Iranian statements expressed the no-confidence in the European position of further supporting the implementation of the Agreement. Some other statements mentioned that Iran will, under unfavourable circumstances of the discussions with the European officials, will publicize the economic facilities and financial incentives granted to certain top European personalities and even to the American Secretary of State John Kerry, during the negotiations for agreeing JPCOA, and that would explain why the proposals that did not suit Iran were eliminated from the final text.
For the time being, the EU (and also France, Germany and great Britain, separately) and Russia support maintaining the agreement denounced by president Donald Trump. We notice the rather sharp statements of the Commissioner for Foreign and Security Policy Federica Mogherini (which, in our opinion, exceed the real – and modest – possibilities of the UE’s foreign policy under current European legislation), as well as Donald Tusk’s statements criticizing the American decision and endorsed keeping the agreement into force. Some other voices have been heard as well considering the USA, after its withdrawal from the agreement, (as that was a real surprise) as not being any longer an European trusted ally something that is, again in our opinion, a great strategic and geopolitical mistake. We restate the opinion that, particularly under the circumstances of today’s geopolitical developments, the alliance between Europe and the USA or between the USA and Europe should be a constant able to prevent a new world conflict with incalculable consequences for the mankind.
As far as the USA is concerned and in accordance with the decisions president Trump took, economic sanctions were imposed on certain Iranian entities including the Revolutionary Guard Corps (Pasdaran), Central Bank of Iran and other officials Moreover, the sanctions to be adopted will affect on the European firms (and American firms) that have already economic contracts amounting to hundreds and thousands of dollar with Iran. It is obvious that the sanctions against Iran, especially when they will be adopted by the European countries, will have important effects on the Iranian economy.
As it was natural, the USA’s position was approved by Israel and also by Saudi Arabia that stated that if Iran gets nuclear weapons, it will do the same. We remind here some information according to which Saudi Arabia has already concluded a secret protocol with Pakistan since several decades (stipulating that in case of a nuclear threat against Saudi Arabia, Islamabad will put at Riyadh’s disposal some nuclear strikes as response).
Russia seems to benefit as a result of this situation first by the crude oil price increase and then due to the possibilities of concluding new contracts with Tehran in case the European companies withdraw.
An important consequence of the Agreement’s denunciation, under the circumstances of worsening the situation, is a large-scale regional military conflict breaking out that may end in redesigning the map of the Middle East, drastically reducing the Iranian influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The Israeli military action against “almost the entire Iranian infrastructure in Syria”, as a response to the 20 Iranian missiles launched against Israel should be added, as it was the most powerful Israeli military actions of the last 40 years (Operation ”House of Cards”). It seems that the operation was coordinated by Israel with the USA and Russia. A new evidence of how complicated the developments in the Middle East are and could be.
The USA considered certainly the possibility of a military conflict with Iran breaking out. The question to be asked is what resulted from this analysis and what will Washington’s decision be.
About the author:
Corneliu Pivariu, former first deputy for military intelligence (two stars general) in the Romanian MoD, retired 2003. Member of IISS – London, alumni of Harvard – Kennedy School Executive Education and others international organizations. Founder of INGEPO Consulting, and bimonthly Bulletin, Geostrategic Pulse”. Main areas of expertise – geopolitics, intelligence and security.
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Corneliu Pivariu Ingepo Consulting. Photographer Ionus Paraschiv
