By Fatima Saleem
The region comprising East Asia, South Asia, Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean hosts more than half of the world’s population, nearly two-thirds of the world’s economy, and seven of the world’s largest militaries. Seeing the region as the epicentre of global geopolitics, the US launched its Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) in February 2022 intending to “firmly anchor” in the region. Rekindling the spirit of previous administrations, the strategy is premised on the principles of:
- free and open Indo-Pacific
- Build connections within and beyond the region
- Drive regional prosperity
- Bolster Indo-Pacific security
- Build regional resilience to transnational threats
The rebranding of the region from Asia-Pacific (APAC) to Indo-Pacific shows that it remains central to Washington’s foreign. The new framework aims to form a consortium of like-minded countries to promote a US-led rule-based order. The strategy emphasizes successfully “defending US’ interests” through the “containment” of China via militarization of the region, transfer of critical technologies and forging alliances and regional partnerships. In its action plan, it discusses the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) as a counterweight to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), strengthening ASEAN, supporting India’s rise, delivering on the Quad and expanding US-Japan-Korea cooperation while promoting accountability in the region.
Even though Beijing still hasn’t produced a documented response to the IPS, in its diplomatic and academic discourse, China deliberately avoids use of the term Indo-Pacific and instead uses Asia-Pacific to describe the region. It has termed the IPS as a ‘fantasy targeting China’.
India appears several times in the IPS and is referred to as “strong India”, “India as a net security provider” and “Leading India in South Asia”. Its key role in the region has paved the way for its military ascendancy, increased diplomatic outreach and a growing economic clout which has inculcated amongst Indians an exaggerated sense of superiority.
The Japanese have labelled the region as a “Confluence of the two Seas”. Its strategy for the region is known as “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) and views Washington as its “security guarantor”
Following a policy of integrated deterrence, by the early 2030s, Australia will be provided with three Virginia class submarines thus showing that the US holds a central position in Australia’s defence capabilities and force structure.
As ASEAN nations find it increasingly difficult to remain neutral, the economic bloc launched its ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) to promote regional integration and meaningful cooperation with partners.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
| ASEAN-US | US $362.2 billion | US$ 441.7 billion | US$ 520.3 billion |
| ASEAN-China | $685.28 billion | US$ 878.2 billion | US $975.3 billion |
China has not only become ASEAN’s largest trading partner but also a significant contributor to its GDP growth, therefore, there will be a varying degree of commitment by ASEAN nations to the IPS as many of these states are within Beijing’s economic grasp. This will ultimately impact its long-term viability. One can therefore say that considering the varying national interests of each state, the strategy is perceived differently by all key players.
| Probability | Rationale | |||
| Low | Medium | High | ||
| Polarization of Indo-Pacific | x | x | ✓ | Indo-Pacific will therefore be divided into two blocs; led by China and the US |
| Nuclearization of the region | x | ✓ | x | Through arrangements like AUKUS, vertical and horizontal nuclear proliferation in the region might occur |
| De-dollarization | x | x | ✓ | In May 2023, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in its 42nd Summit decided to promote trade in regional currencies. These moves depict an attempt by APAC to decrease their reliance on the US dollar |
| AUKUS+ | x | ✓ | x | To enhance the defence capabilities of its allies, Japan, South Korea and India might join |
| QUAD+ | x | ✓ | x | To enhance diplomatic outreach, South Korea and Vietnam might be included |
| US-China war | ✓ | x | x | Increased incidents of cyber-attacks and proxy warfare should be expected |
Source: Author
The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has become the theatre of strategic competition and is being increasingly weaponized with states competing for access to resources and control over maritime routes. This has led to the emergence of new frameworks within an emerging multipolar system with several countries introducing their version of IPS.
Australia’s Indo-Pacific policies are a result of its defence and foreign policy white papers which aim to enhance its defence capabilities. ASEAN outlook on Indo-Pacific was published in 2019 where states have collectively adopted a calibrated approach to ensure neutrality and put ASEAN’s interests first. India’s Maritime Security Strategy of 2015, its Act East policy and its National Security Strategy of 2019 reflect its stance in the IOR, centred primarily on the containment of China.
The IOR lies in the South of Pakistan and as of now, the country has limited stakes in the region. However, its geographical position has made it impossible for us to remain insulated from the effects of unfolding great power rivalry.
US-India Joint Statement of June 2023 reaffirms that Washington will continue to give preferential treatment to India in the information, political and economic domains. This will unhinge stability in the South Asian region. As political volatility and economic vulnerability continue to plague Pakistan, the security situation along CPEC routes will likely deteriorate. Under such circumstances, it is high time Pakistan comes out of the Cold War thinking and views the regional and global strategic realignments with an open mind so that it is better equipped to deal with the storm brewing in the Asia-Pacific.
To contact the writer Fatima Saleem, Email: fatimasaleemraza@gmail.com
