“A Thought and a Smile…”
By Eelco H. Dykstra, M.D.
“Our Plan B is that Plan A works”.
This statement means you placed all your eggs are in one basket. Is that smart? Does that prepare you for things you might not know, foresee or expect? Following the ‘9/11’ massacre, the United States government created not only the Department for Homeland Security but also a National Response PLAN (NRP).
A few years later, there was a name change – instead of a plan, it was now known as ‘National Response FRAMEWORK’ (NRF). Why? Because it became obvious that any plan should allow for flexibility. Unforeseen or unexpected circumstances that could force decisionmakers to abandon or deviate from existing plans, protocols and procedures. The flexibility to improvise.
Imagine…
An engineer tasked to build an underground parking garage.
A medical doctor looking to diagnose and treat a difficult patient.
A diplomat considering stepping in to mediate in an intense conflict.
All three are forward-looking, trying to create something positive. All wanting to reach their goals. All of them focusing on the Opportunity-side of things.
When we put this in terms of football or soccer, they ask: How do we score goals? Taking advantage of opportunities leads to success. Well, who wouldn’t want this, we all want to be successful in what we do, right?
Yet there is another side as well, which is the Jeopardy-side of things.
The risks. The things we are afraid of. Unexpected and unforeseen events or circumstances that lead to misery and failure. In terms of football or soccer, now the question becomes: What prevents us from scoring goals?
In theory, many people will agree that these are two sides of the same coin. In practice however, many people don’t look at both sides together, but at one OR the other. When disconnected, we often see one-sided approaches where opportunity leads to success and glory. But we also see another one-sided approach where jeopardy leads to the doom and gloom of damage, destruction, death and dysfunction.
So, this is what we see:
- OPPORTUNITY – We see talented entrepreneurs consumed by a desire to quickly convert their startup business into glorious success. Convinced that things cannot go wrong, they only look at the opportunity side. Business degree programs (MBA), investors, consultants and coaches tend to follow and reinforce this one-sided approach. And yes, the mainstream media do the same: let’s say 99 out of 100 start-ups fail and only one survives and thrives against all the odds. Guess who makes the news?
- JEOPARDY – On the jeopardy side, we see risk managers and consultants who continuously assess, calculate and talk about the probability and impact of all kinds of risks. It’s the core business of the military and lawyers, insurance brokers, healthcare professionals, and politicians. It’s the realm of fear. The fear for each other (conflict), for the world around them (safety and security), their health (illnesses and death), and their future. They seek reassurance, they seek a semblance of risk-control.
Back to the engineer, the doctor and the diplomat.
Once they are armed with knowledge and experience, they realize they must consider both sides. They realize that opportunity and jeopardy always travel together.
Engineers, medical doctors and diplomats switch effortlessly back and forth, equally alert for signs that opportunity may turn into jeopardy and that jeopardy can be turned into opportunity. Anything that doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, right?
- ENGINEERS – The thinking of engineers zooms in on how to avoid jeopardy by organizing the work in such a way that materials, machines and manpower lead to finishing the construction on time, within budget and according to contract specifications.
- MEDICAL DOCTORS – When faced with patients, doctors have it in their DNA to ask themselves three questions:
- What is – or are – the problem(s)?
- How can I find out?
- What am I going to do about it?
Thus, they also zoom in on assessing what the problem is (jeopardy – diagnosis) to then look for the opportunity (the therapy).
- DIPLOMATS – The thinking of diplomats zooms in on identifying the roots, causes and context of (possible) conflicts to then figure out what the options are for prevention, de-escalation, a sustainable truce or a permanent, peaceful solution.
In short, it’s called systems-thinking.
They consider opportunity and jeopardy on an ‘and-and’ instead of ‘or-or’ basis
They juggle.
They keep not a single ball, but many ‘opportunity balls’ and ‘jeopardy balls’ up in the air.
They look at the big(ger) picture – otherwise, they cannot see the moving parts.
They must see the moving parts – otherwise, they cannot see how they interact.
They must see how they interact – otherwise, they cannot anticipate cascading effects.
How about you?
Can you?
Juggle?
About the author:
Once dubbed a ‘Global Nomad’ in East Africa, Eelco H. Dykstra is a seasoned international crisis and emergency expert. As a true ‘Prac-Ademic’, he blends – also in his column “A Thought and a Smile” – his innate optimism with knowledge from his practical experience and rigorous fact-finding.
Aside from being founder/chair of the Daily Impact Emergency Management (DIEM) network and a visiting professor in South Africa, he initiated the ’20/20 Vision’ program for the dual purpose of strengthening value-based resilience and overcoming the obstacles that stand in the way of implementing lessons (to be) learned. Eelco has been a correspondent, written multiple books and articles and continues to work extensively with media, government, business, NGO’s and community-based initiatives. In short, Eelco is a transdisciplinary and trans-cultural multi-tasker – just like diplomats are.
Among his hobbies are cooking and playing the cello – see picture, taken by Tom Manning, during an impromptu performance with the Soweto Youth Orchestra.
Eelco H. Dykstra Professor (visiting), Adaptation and Resilience, University of South-Africa, UNISA. Chair, ’20/20 Vision’ Program: How do we go from ‘Risk’ to ‘Resilience”? Founder, Daily Impact Emergency Management (DIEM) Network
www.diem.nu www.20outof20.vision
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