By Sazzad Haider
Four events this October will have a significant impact on the politics of the year to come. The final campaign for the US presidential election has commenced this month. If Democratic President Kamala Harris wins the upcoming election, there will be no change in US foreign policy.
The rivalry between the U.S. President and Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to end. The fight in Ukraine will last longer—until Putin is exhausted and withdraws from Ukraine. Alternatively, NATO could descend directly into war. By doing this, Europe could gain experience with atomic bombs. If Putin is defeated in such a war, the United States may propose another Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe. The effect of this would strengthen the economy of the United States, and at least for the next fifty years, the sole dominance of the United States in the economy and politics of the world would be established.
But according to the latest opinion polls, it is difficult for Kamala to beat Trump. Trump’s victory does not bode well for Ukrainian President Zelensky. Zelensky understands that if NATO does not participate directly in this war, Ukraine will be far from winning and will not be able to recover the lost ground. Trump has already made it clear that he will end this war—he doesn’t mind giving Russia a part of Ukraine. Trump is a business mogul. The huge investments the U.S. must make globally (especially behind NATO) to maintain hostilities with Russia would not be necessary if it were allied with Putin, which yields no returns. Arctic or space sharing: Putin and Trump together can beat the rest. U.S. friendship with Russia can keep China away from Russia. This would keep Taiwan safe, and even allow for the use of Putin’s influence to bring North Korea’s rocket boy, Kim Jong Un, into the fold. In addition, Trump can hold a meeting with rocket boy.
Maybe Iran can also be isolated from Russia so that Iran does not receive any more Russian technology. By keeping Russia out of the Middle East, it will be easier for Israel to defeat its Arab enemies.
This October marks one year since the Gaza attack. Since October 7, 2023, nearly 42,000 Palestinians have been killed, over half of whom are women and children, with more than 96,000 injured. Gaza has suffered catastrophic destruction, with 90% of its population displaced and infrastructure—including roads, healthcare, and water facilities—decimated. Over 40 million tonnes of debris remain, and recovery efforts could take up to 15 years. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians live in overcrowded camps, battling hunger and disease. Not a single university remains in Gaza. Thousands of Palestinians are also arbitrarily detained and tortured in the West Bank.
Iran-Israel tensions have reached a fever pitch—a limited-scale war between the two countries hinted at this October. If this war does not stop, it will spread throughout the Middle East, which could turn into a world war. Now, let’s see if world leaders can save the world from war. So far, world leaders have incited both sides to conflict, but no peace envoy has stepped in. Thus, the world is headed for an uncertain future—a war that never ends.
This October, the three-day BRICS summit in Kazan was attended by 36 countries, with more than 20 of them represented by heads of state. Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted the summit while Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian participated. It was the largest diplomatic forum in Russia since Putin ordered troops into Ukraine in 2022.
The summit analyzed the current geopolitical situation, opposed the U.S.-imposed sanctions on China, Russia, and Iran as “unlawful,” and highlighted the need for an alternative payment system. The BRICS countries now represent almost half the world’s population, 40% of global oil production, and around 25% of goods exports. After the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russian President Putin has proven that he is not alone in the world, despite the arrest order against him by the International Court of Justice. It can be said that all countries outside the Western sphere of influence are now on Putin’s side. The participation of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in BRICS has multiplied the political and economic importance of the group. The influence of the United States in these two countries in the Middle East has gradually declined, while the influence of Russia and China has increased in the region as well as across the globe. Thus, the BRICS summit added to U.S. discomfort.
About the author:
Sazzad Haider is Writer & journalist, lives in Dhaka, Bangladesh. He is Editor-in-Chief of Diplomatic Journal.
