“A Thought and a Smile…”
By Eelco H. Dykstra, M.D.
Columnists author articles offering an opinion or perspective about a particular subject.
The columns I write are ‘playfully provocative’ and intended to deliver both a smile and a thought. A smile because you hadn’t quite looked at something that way and a thought because the column may leave you wondering…
So, this month’s column is about geopolitical turmoil.
In general terms, there is geopolitical turmoil because we (can) see the demise of a ‘Western,’ rules-based alliance (up to forty-five countries) as the dominant global force since Worl War II. At the same time, we (can) see the emergency of a much more ‘multi-polar’ world, confirmed by the dramatic growth of the BRICS+ network (up to 100 countries who like to sign up).
More specifically and recently, we saw a tsunami of executive orders signed by the new POTUS, Donald J. Trump and even more recent, a speech by his Vice-President James D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference. Their impact was such that we might no longer be talking about turmoil, but about ‘mayhem.’
Mayhem?
Well, you might say, that is quite an exaggeration, but is it, really?
Not when we look at the chair of the Munich Conference who burst into tears when VP James Vance didn’t follow the scripted anti-Russia and pro-Ukraine message but instead criticized the European political elite for ignoring democratic key values in their own countries.
Also, not when we note a comment by a former Dutch military commander-in chief who, speaking on behalf of Europe, said this: “The United States is still an ally, but no longer a friend.”
So, let’s take a closer look at what’s behind this geopolitical turmoil by zooming in on two things: hedging and rare earth metals.
Hedging is the practice by individual investors, institutional investors, countries, and corporations to reduce their exposure to various risks. One could consider it to be a kind of insurance yet bear in mind that hedging is not as simple as paying an insurance company a fee every year for coverage. Hedging isn’t a perfect science: things can easily go wrong too.
Rare earth metals are critical for semi-conductor technologies, electric vehicles, and defence systems. Because the strategic importance of these rare earth metals will only grow, global powers like the United States, China and Russia continue their efforts to secure (access to) these valuable resources, shaping global power dynamics in the process.
An illustration of hedging (access to) this kind of critical resources is the recent claim by the Trump administration for ownership of 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth metals as compensation for the military aid it has provided.
So, what then, might one take aways from this column?
Well, what do you think of:
- We see global powers getting involved in – even militarizing – regional conflicts to hedge against (a shortage of) essential resources. This is not only true for Ukraine, but we (will) see the same in Africa, South America, Asia-Pacific and Arctic regions.
- The Trump administration realizes that 1000% of nothing is also nothing – hence the hedging… – and is distancing itself from the European Union politics-as-usual. This will leave Europe in a jam and in an off-side position.
- Expect more surprising (= non-linear) developments to come out of the increasingly multipolar world order in the context of BRICS+.
Which, finally, brings us also to the question what Europe and its leadership might do to reverse their increasingly ‘offside’ position on the global playing field?
Should they listen better and take note of what critics like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are saying?
Should they listen better and take note of the criticism and concerns of large parts of their own populations?
Or should we just stick to reminding everyone of the key-message in my last column:
“Embrace any form of criticism because it shows one cares!”
I don’t know.
You tell me!
About the author:
Once dubbed a ‘Global Nomad’ in East Africa, Eelco H. Dykstra is a seasoned international crisis and emergency expert. As a true ‘Prac-Ademic’, he blends – also in his column “A Thought and a Smile” – his innate optimism with knowledge from his practical experience and rigorous fact-finding.
Aside from being founder/chair of the Daily Impact Emergency Management (DIEM) network and a visiting professor in South Africa, he initiated the ’20/20 Vision’ program for the dual purpose of strengthening value-based resilience and overcoming the obstacles that stand in the way of implementing lessons (to be) learned. Eelco has been a correspondent, written multiple books and articles and continues to work extensively with media, government, business, NGO’s and community-based initiatives. In short, Eelco is a transdisciplinary and trans-cultural multi-tasker – just like diplomats are.
Among his hobbies are cooking and playing the cello – see picture, taken by Tom Manning, during an impromptu performance with the Soweto Youth Orchestra.
Eelco H. Dykstra Professor (visiting), Adaptation and Resilience, University of South-Africa, UNISA. Chair, ’20/20 Vision’ Program: How do we go from ‘Risk’ to ‘Resilience”? Founder, Daily Impact Emergency Management (DIEM) Network
www.diem.nu www.20outof20.vision / eelco.dykstra@diem.nu
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