By Zhou Chao, Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND
It is undeniable that, as of this year, the process of de-globalization has been unfolding for nearly a decade. The increasing divergence in global economic development patterns is now a widely accepted reality. When considering the countries and regions poised to take leading roles in the future global economic landscape, a range of perspectives has emerged. Some analysts predict that, thanks to its youthful population and growing economic power, India will solidify its position in the global economy. Others suggest that Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, will emerge as key players due to similar advantages. Additionally, some experts anticipate a promising future for the five Central Asian countries. However, in these discussions, the Americas seem to be somewhat overlooked.
In terms of the future global economic structure, the “Century of the Americas” should not be underestimated. Latin American countries, such as Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, as well as North American countries, including the United States and Canada, will occupy a more important position in the global economic structure, with greater influence.
The past emphasis on the economic dimensions of globalization has been somewhat one-sided and superficial. This focus has led to the development of overly complex and extended global supply chains, which have proven vulnerable to disruptions from natural disasters and regional conflicts. Furthermore, the widening global wealth gap has contributed to growing dissatisfaction within nations over this narrow form of globalization. As a result, regionalization is likely to become a lasting trend, with the U.S. increasingly turning its attention and resources toward the Americas, its geographically closer neighbors.
For the Americas as a whole, the U.S.’ primary objective will be to effectively manage and integrate the entire continent both ideologically and economically. The economic strength of North America, particularly that of the U.S. and Canada, is indisputable. While Canada has developed some opposition to the U.S. on specific issues, such as trade disputes, there is comparatively little ideological divide between the two nations. Economically, Canada remains heavily dependent on the U.S., and its eventual full integration into the U.S.’s regional strategy appears inevitable. Consequently, the most crucial task for the U.S. is the integration of the Latin American region.
In terms of economic development and strategic integration, the Latin American region holds significant importance for the U.S.
To cite some examples of crucial resources, the Latin American region holds at least 65% of the world’s lithium reserves. It also holds 49% of the silver reserves and 44% of copper. In addition, the Latin American region is also rich in oil and gas resources. Effectively managing and developing these resources is of great strategic importance to the U.S., as it plays a crucial role in ensuring resource independence and reducing reliance on China. Moreover, the region plus the Caribbean represents a vast consumer market, accounting for 8.3% of the global population.
Latin America’s economic growth potential is particularly promising in countries like Brazil and Mexico, which are seen as markets with significant growth prospects. All these factors contribute to the U.S.’s strong interest in the region, offering attractive returns on potential capital investments.
Although some Latin American countries face internal political instability, the overall situation in the region remains favorable compared to other regions. Unlike some Southeast Asian nations, Latin America does not suffer from extreme internal military fragmentation or warlordism. While criminal groups pose concerns, their influence is not as destructive as extremist forces in regions such as Central Asia or the Middle East. The internal challenges in Latin American countries, mostly related to governance issues, are more remediable than those faced by some of the larger countries in other regions.
In terms of U.S. integration of the region, the key players will be Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. The success or failure of U.S. efforts to integrate the region will largely depend on the attitudes of these three nations. Mexico, while occasionally confrontational on issues like tariffs, has no significant ideological opposition to the U.S. Furthermore, Mexico’s economic dependence on the U.S. makes full integration into U.S. regional strategy highly likely. The country’s economic potential, especially its growing manufacturing sector, makes it an important partner for the U.S.
In Argentina, President Javier Milei’s recent radical reforms have already had a notable impact, further aligning the country with the U.S.’s regional strategy. His economic reforms, particularly in the monetary and financial sectors, have deepened Argentina’s integration into the broader American economic framework.
Brazil, on the other hand, is currently governed by left-wing forces, which create some ideological distance from the U.S. Despite economic challenges, such as low investment efficiency and heavy reliance on primary product exports, Brazil’s overall economic performance remains stable. While left-wing influence in Brazil is strong, right-wing factions still exert significant control at local and central levels. This suggests that Brazil could eventually pursue economic reforms that align more closely with U.S. interests, potentially integrating more fully into the U.S. regional strategy.
Other Latin American countries, with smaller populations and economies, will likely face less resistance to U.S. influence, making their full integration into U.S. strategy highly probable. Cuba, long isolated and suffering from internal economic struggles, has little capacity to obstruct U.S. plans for the region. Similarly, while Venezuela’s current political stability under Nicolás Maduro persists, the country’s relatively small size and limited resources prevent it from significantly impeding U.S. integration efforts.
Although Latin America faces numerous challenges, the U.S. is in a strong position to integrate the region, meeting its developmental needs through emerging economies within the Americas. For this vision to be realized, Latin American countries like Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil must have large, youthful populations, thriving manufacturing sectors, and stable social environments. These countries will need to effectively absorb U.S. capital, providing the foundation for sustained economic growth and prosperity.
Once U.S. capital, technology, and ideas reshape key countries within the region, Latin America’s economic and social development could experience significant leaps forward. This would not only strengthen the region’s international status and influence but also solidify its role as a central pillar in a resurgent global economy.
