By ANBOUND Think Tank
Great power relations typically refer to the relations between nations within the international system that wield significant influence, such as the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union. These relations, shaped by their interactions, ultimately determine the direction of the global order. In the context of de-globalization, great power relations have come to represent the dominant power structure of the current era. In contrast, multilateral partnerships, such as U.S.-EU relations and the transatlantic alliance, are also important. However, de-globalization has undermined these multilateral frameworks, particularly as they are in direct opposition to the principles of Trumpism and the stance of American conservatives, particularly the “America First” doctrine. This ideological shift exposes a clear contradiction in U.S. foreign policy.
At its core, Trumpism is not concerned with multilateral institutions like the transatlantic partnership but rather focuses on strengthening bilateral relations among great powers. This focus helps explain why Trump consistently sought to maintain favorable relations with Russia and, despite various challenges, advanced ties with China. Some observers may highlight Trump’s recent visit to the United Kingdom, but in reality, this was more about his desire for global recognition and status, and indeed a sort of “monarchical mindset”. Trump aimed to elevate himself on the world stage, seeking recognition not from multilateral organizations but from powerful nations with traditional significance, like the U.K. However, his visit could not resolve the deeper ideological rifts between the liberal and conservative factions within the Anglo-American relationship. As noted by King Charles III during a banquet, Trump’s stances on issues such as aid to Ukraine, immigration, and environmental concerns were sharply criticized. Nevertheless, in the context of Trump’s broader worldview, these issues remain secondary. The British, of course, are well aware of this tendency.
For China, navigating the evolving landscape of great power relations requires a thoughtful and strategic approach. From a geopolitical perspective, the new international relations theory called “Balance, Cooperation, Existence” (BCE) could serve as both a guiding framework and a strategic approach for it to interact with other great powers.
The “Balance” component emphasizes the need for interdependence and mutual benefits in areas such as trade, industry, and regional interests. This requires both give-and-take, ensuring that all parties stand to gain. The “Cooperation” aspect stresses the importance of regional collaboration as a foundation for broader cooperation on specific issues. Crucially, cooperation is the key to maintaining peace and facilitating competition without leading to total breakdowns in great power relations. Finally, “Existence” underscores the importance of maintaining sovereignty and independence by avoiding entangling alliances that could compromise a nation’s interests. It advocates for China to safeguard its national interests while maintaining its stature as a key player on the global stage.
The BCE theory should form the foundation of China’s approach to future great power relations. In this framework, China should present BCE as a conceptual model for international understanding, representing a geopolitical philosophy grounded in existential principles. This approach focuses on balance rather than confrontation, cooperation over isolation, and independence rather than aggression. In a world marked by ongoing tensions, China’s adoption of the BCE framework will enhance its international standing, making it a respected and recognized global force. The key to achieving this status lies in the world’s recognition of China’s legitimate place in global affairs and a willingness to engage in dialogue based on balance and cooperation.
Great power relations are inherently complex and delicate, especially for emerging powers like China. In seeking a prominent role on the global stage, it is essential for China to draw upon historical lessons, one of the most important being the need to avoid overextending. While strategic competitions are integral to great power relations, they do not necessitate all-out confrontation. Overexertion or seeking to decisively defeat rivals in a single blow is neither a sustainable nor appropriate approach in great power relations and is counterproductive to the BCE framework.
In its dealings with the global community, China will need to adopt a diplomatic language that resonates universally, clearly articulating its national position and aspirations. Only through this approach can China truly enter the realm of great power relations and assert itself as a pivotal player in shaping the global order.
