Energy, geography and great-power competition in the formation of a new strategic axis between the Middle East and Eastern Europe
“Who controls the Rimland[1] dominates Eurasia;
who dominates Eurasia influences the destiny of the world.”
— Nicholas Spykman
By Major General (Two Stars) (retd) Corneliu Pivariu
Two seemingly separate strategic theatres
In contemporary geopolitics, the lines of separation between major strategic theatres are becoming increasingly blurred. Spaces once considered distinct are beginning to function as elements of the same system of geopolitical interdependencies, in which energy routes, trade corridors and maritime chokepoints connect distant regions into a single strategic arc.
In this context, the Black Sea and the Middle East can no longer be viewed as two separate geopolitical spaces. While in traditional analysis the Black Sea was considered a frontier zone between Europe and the Eurasian space, and the Middle East an epicentre of energy politics and regional conflicts, developments over the past decade show that this conceptual separation is becoming increasingly irrelevant.
The two regions now appear as segments of the same strategic space linking the Persian Gulf to Eastern Europe. This geopolitical interdependence between the Middle East and the Pontic region has also been emphasized by other analysts, who describe this space as a zone of compression between the major maritime and continental geopolitical systems.
Within this geopolitical arc intersect the interests of great powers, energy flows and trade routes between Asia and Europe. Understanding this interconnection becomes essential for analysing geopolitical transformations in Eurasia and for assessing the new balances of power that are emerging in the 21st century.
The geography of energy and trade routes
This interconnection begins, above all, with geography. The Black Sea represents the gateway between Europe and the energy space of the Middle East and the Caspian basin. At the centre of this connection lies the system of the Turkish Straits — the Bosporus and the Dardanelles — the only maritime link between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, which makes control of this passage a geopolitical factor of global importance.
The legal regime of these straits is established by the Montreux Convention of 1936, which grants Turkey control over naval transit and provides Ankara with an essential strategic role in the military balance of the region.
The system of the Turkish Straits, the energy corridors crossing Anatolia and the Caucasus, as well as the transport infrastructure linking Asia to Europe create a strategic continuity between the two regions.
Within this system of interconnections, the Caucasus region plays the role of an intermediate strategic node through which the energy resources of the Caspian basin and the Middle East are connected to European transport infrastructures and markets.
The importance of this strategic arc has increased significantly in recent years, particularly in the context of European efforts to diversify energy and trade routes following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
The military interdependence of the two fronts
The military dimension reinforces this interdependence. The war in Ukraine has transformed the Black Sea into a major strategic theatre of confrontation between Russia and the West. At the same time, recurring tensions in the Middle East continue to influence global energy stability and the security of maritime routes.
The two fronts do not evolve in isolation. In practice, they simultaneously affect Europe’s security: the Black Sea directly influences the European security architecture, while the Middle East affects the continent’s energy flows and economic stability. From this perspective, Europe’s security increasingly depends on developments in both regions.
Pivot actors of the extended geopolitical space
Turkey plays a central role in this interconnection. Control of the Bosporus and the Dardanelles gives Ankara a unique strategic position, as these maritime passages represent the only link between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
At the same time, Turkey is involved militarily and politically both in the Pontic space and in the Middle East. Its presence in Syria and Iraq, its involvement in Libya, as well as its role in the strategic balance of the Black Sea transform Ankara into a geopolitical pivot between Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East. This position allows it to influence developments in both strategic theatres simultaneously.
In the context of a possible major destabilization of Iran, Turkey faces a complex strategic dilemma determined primarily by geographical proximity and by the experience accumulated over the past decade in managing regional crises. The lessons of the Syrian conflict have shown Ankara that the collapse of state order in a neighbouring country inevitably generates massive migration pressures, security risks and internal economic instability.
Consequently, Turkey’s security doctrine has increasingly shifted toward the concept of forward security, according to which threats must be managed as close as possible to their point of origin, even beyond national borders.
Within this doctrinal framework, the Turkish military has developed contingency plans in recent years for scenarios of regional destabilization, including the hypothesis of a partial collapse of the Iranian state. Such a situation could generate massive population movements toward the Turkish border and could create power vacuums in frontier regions.
From Ankara’s perspective, the main objective in such a scenario would not be the occupation of Iranian territory but the creation of limited buffer zones designed to manage refugee flows and prevent the spread of chaos toward Turkish territory.
Another sensitive element concerns the ethnic dimension of the region. In north-western Iran lives a large community of ethnic Azeris, estimated at approximately 15–20 million people, concentrated mainly in the province of Iranian Azerbaijan, with its centre in Tabriz.
The cultural and linguistic ties between these communities and Azerbaijan, as well as the increasingly close political relations between Ankara and Baku, give this region a particular geopolitical relevance. In the event of a major destabilization of Iran, the north-west of the country could become a space of strategic competition between several regional powers, and Turkey would inevitably be involved in the security dynamics of the area.
In recent years, Ankara has significantly strengthened the security infrastructure along its border with Iran, including through the construction of an extensive system of physical barriers, surveillance systems and aerial monitoring capabilities based on drones. These measures reflect Turkey’s constant concern regarding the risks generated by regional instability and demonstrate that the Turkish state is preparing flexible options for potential crisis situations.
Overall, the scenarios discussed in analytical circles regarding possible Turkish involvement in north-western Iran should be understood more in the logic of preventive planning than as indications of expansionist intentions. Ankara’s strategic priority remains maintaining stability at its own borders and preventing Turkey from becoming a space for absorbing crises generated by conflicts in its immediate neighbourhood.
However, the geopolitical implications of a possible destabilization of Iran go far beyond the strictly defensive dimension of this planning. From a broader perspective, the region of Iranian Azerbaijan, centered arround Tabriz, represents one of the sensitive links of the geopolitical space connecting the Black Sea, the Caucasus and the Middle East.
In the event of destabilization in Iran, this area could become a point of convergence for the interests of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Russia and other regional actors. For this reason, developments in north-western Iran should be monitored not only as a regional security issue but also as a possible indicator of a reconfiguration of the strategic balance in a key region of Eurasia.
From this perspective, developments in Iranian Azerbaijan should not be viewed merely as a local security issue but as part of a broader geopolitical dynamic involving relations between the Turkic world, the Caucasian space and the Middle East.
In recent years, the consolidation of the strategic relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as regional connectivity and energy projects, has amplified the importance of this region within the geopolitical architecture of the Eurasian space.
Global competition within the strategic arc
Beyond the regional dimension, there is also a global competition unfolding in this space. The United States, Russia and China are simultaneously present both in the Middle East and in the extended Black Sea region.
For Washington, the stability of the Middle East and the security of the Black Sea are part of the same strategic system influencing European security and the control of energy routes.
For Russia, control of the Black Sea provides access to the Mediterranean and the Middle East, strengthening its power projection in the southern space of Eurasia.
For China, the stability of these routes is essential for energy security and for the functioning of Eurasian trade corridors.
An emerging strategic arc between the Persian Gulf and Eastern Europe
In this context, developments in one strategic theatre tend to produce direct effects in the other. A major escalation in the Middle East could affect European energy security and increase the importance of routes in the Black Sea region. Similarly, destabilization in the Pontic region would influence trade corridors between Europe and the Middle East and modify the regional geopolitical balance.
The two strategic spaces are therefore linked through a system of interdependencies that is becoming increasingly evident.
Thus, the Black Sea and the Middle East can no longer be analysed separately. They form a strategic arc stretching from the Persian Gulf to Eastern Europe and connecting energy resources, trade routes and maritime chokepoints between Asia and Europe.
Within this arc unfolds today one of the most important geopolitical competitions of the 21st century: the control of energy flows, trade corridors and strategic infrastructures connecting Eurasia to the global economy.
From this perspective, the Black Sea and the Middle East appear as two segments of the same geopolitical arc linking the Persian Gulf to Eastern Europe. Control of energy routes, trade corridors and maritime chokepoints in this space becomes one of the central stakes of competition between the great powers.
At the same time, this strategic axis gains additional relevance in the context of Western efforts to develop alternative energy and trade corridors to traditional routes controlled by Russia.
In a world undergoing an accelerated process of geopolitical rebalancing, this strategic axis will play an increasingly important role in defining energy security, regional stability and the balance of power between Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East.
In this sense, the geopolitical arc between the Persian Gulf and the Black Sea is not merely a zone where regional interests intersect. It is one of the spaces where a decisive part of the balance of power in 21st-century Eurasia will be shaped.
