By Sazzad Haider
In the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, neither party is likely to emerge as a clear victor or suffer a definitive defeat. There are three potential resolutions to this war.
1. Peace initiatives led by US President Donald Trump could bring a swift end to the conflict. In this scenario, he might collaborate with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Saudi Crown Prince Salman, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to encourage Iran to rejoin nuclear peace negotiations. This approach would preserve the dignity of both Israel and the United States, while also averting the threat of nuclear warfare or a third world war, which is the desire of peace advocates globally.
2. Iran has delivered unexpected developments in the past two to three days of the conflict, with significant damage occurring in the Jewish capital of Tel Aviv. Regardless of official statements, the United States is already covertly involved in this war. Efforts are underway to intercept Iranian missiles targeting Tel Aviv from US naval vessels. However, neither Iranian missiles nor drones are being successfully intercepted. There is no basis for believing that the US is not part of the Israeli strategy against Iran. Trump may have anticipated that Israel would independently handle the destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites, but he underestimated the backlash Israel would face. It is certain that the US Jewish lobby will not remain passive following an Iranian missile strike on Tel Aviv. Therefore, even if the US refrains from formal military engagement, it will be compelled to take action to appease the US Jewish lobby. To achieve this, Trump will need to meet the demands of Israeli Prime minister Netanyahu. The US treasury will have to be significantly depleted to support Israel, providing all types of munitions, including bunker-busting bombs, to ensure Tehran is devastated. There may even be a necessity to supply mini-nuclear bombs to Israel to enable retaliation for the destruction of Tel Aviv. This course of action would prolong the conflict.
3. The third option involves the United States engaging in direct military conflict with Iran. This action would initiate World War III. Should US President Trump abandon his pacifist stance and enter into direct warfare alongside Israel, the United States would bear the full responsibility for the ensuing conflict. Furthermore, Israel is likely to enlist the support of its European allies to combat Iran. In essence, this war would encompass the entire globe. If the United States were to engage in direct conflict with Iran, it would find itself with four nuclear-armed nations—China, Russia, Pakistan, and North Korea—supporting Iran. A significant concern for the United States would be Kim Jong Un, also known as Rocket Boy. Kim should choose to participate in this conflict on Iran’s behalf, he would not hesitate to deploy nuclear weapons. Consequently, US military bases, as well as its allies Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, could potentially become targets for nuclear strikes.
Beyond Israel, Iran has the capacity to involve the United States in warfare, as the US has already engaged in undeclared hostilities against Iran. The presence of US warships and bases provides support to Israel. It is unlikely that Iran would remain passive for an extended period. Iran may launch attacks on US bases, irrespective of the potential repercussions. The United States might also label Iran as the initial aggressor and seek to obliterate that nation, along with Israel.
Undoubtedly, US involvement in this conflict would have catastrophic implications for the entire world, leading to dire consequences for all nations involved.
