The Iranian-Israeli confrontation – the start of a regional war or a ‘deterrence strategy’?

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The Iranian-Israeli confrontation – the start of a regional war or a ‘deterrence strategy’?

Absurd Wars of the Middle East

Iran’s bombardment of Israel on 1 October 2024, with approximately 180 projectiles, including many ballistic missiles, marked a clear shift toward direct confrontation between the two regional powers, Iran and Israel. This contrasts with the indirect ‘proxy wars‘ waged since 7 October 2023, through pro-Iranian militias, particularly the Palestinian Hamas movement, Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Houthi movement in Yemen. According to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the attack came in response to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in central Tehran on 31 July 2024, and Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September 2024.

This attack differs from Iran’s earlier strike on 13-14 April this year, as it was twice as intense. In this operation, Iran used ballistic missiles, unlike the April attack, where mostly drones and cruise missiles were employed. Most of the missiles in the April strike were conventional rockets, which took at least two hours to reach their targets in Israel, except for a few ballistic missiles. In contrast, in the latest attack, the rockets took only 15 minutes to hit their targets in Israel. For the first time, Iran deployed its hypersonic missile “Fattah,” capable of speeds 15 times faster than the speed of sound and with a range of up to 1,400 kilometres. This is only the second time such missiles have been used, with Russia deploying them first in the Ukraine war.

The activation of the Lebanese front

There is a well-known saying attributed to Lenin that “there are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen.” This saying has never felt more true than during this fateful September, which began with the explosion of thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah, followed by the assassination of Iran’s key ally in the region, Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut. These dramatic developments triggered a series of questions: What is Iran’s true role in the conflict? Will Iran avoid a direct confrontation with Israel? Is Iran’s support for its Middle Eastern allies enough to counter Israel’s superior military machine? Could Iran be willing to sacrifice its allies in exchange for a stronger position in its nuclear negotiations with the West? Many questions are being raised about the nature of the relationship between Tehran and pro-Iranian militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

Since the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel conflict on 7 October 2023, Hezbollah’s stance has been clear – to support the Hamas movement in the war by opening the northern front, thereby exerting military, economic, and psychological pressure on the Israeli army. However, the warfare on the northern front over the course of the year was governed by the “rules of engagement (ROE)”[2]. Both sides largely stuck to these rules, with Israeli planes bombing Hezbollah bases in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah responding with rocket attacks on Israeli military bases in northern Israel—blow for blow, according to the rules.

The assassination of Nasrallah disrupted the long-standing “deterrence” policy that has consistently shaped the complex dynamics between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. Iran spent decades building Hezbollah, not just as one of its key proxies, but also as a critical element of the Islamic Republic’s defence doctrine. It is estimated that Hezbollah holds around 150,000 missiles and several thousand drones, all acquired with Iran’s help over more than a decade. Hezbollah has served as Iran’s “insurance policy” against any Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities.

In response to this series of strikes, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated at the United Nations on 25 September 2024, that Hezbollah is “fully capable of defending itself and of defending Lebanon and the Lebanese people.”[3] Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking at the UN General Assembly, condemned Israel’s war in Gaza and warned that its attacks on Lebanon could not simply go unanswered. He adopted a more conciliatory tone compared to his hardline predecessors, avoiding rhetoric about eliminating Israel as the Islamic Republic’s greatest enemy. The Iranian president added that Israel seeks to drag Iran into a war, adding that “Iran is ready to de-escalate tensions with Israel and lay down arms if Israel does the same.” This statement drew criticism from some rigid conservatives close to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei concerning his remarks about easing tensions with Israel.[4]

Iran has found itself trapped in the web of regional alliances it has spun itself to secure external protection. Both Iran and Israel are ensnared in a downward spiral of violence, and it is currently impossible to predict to what extent and how far this conflict might spread. In any case, Iran is now in a defensive position, as its alliance system has been shaken by the defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah, thus diminishing its credibility as a regional power. As a result, Tehran felt compelled to retaliate with these missile strikes on Israel.

Escalation within the rules of  engagement and mutual deterrence

According to analysts, the current escalation is unfolding within the bounds of the rules of engagement and mutual deterrence and is unlikely to escalate into a wider regional conflict. In all these strikes, Iran has refrained from targeting key strategic sites in Israel, such as airports, ports, power plants, or the Dimona nuclear reactor. There is no doubt that, prior to both attacks, there were indirect communications with Washington concerning their nature, scale, and timing. Tehran informed Moscow of the scope of its strikes, allowing the U.S. and Israeli sides to be notified through international intermediaries.

Israel’s potential response to the Iranian strike

In the aftermath of the attack, Israel promptly issued threats to respond by targeting Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities. Its air force had been preparing for this scenario as early as 2022. Israel views Iran as an existential threat because of its nuclear program and has repeatedly warned it would destroy the Bushehr nuclear plant. In late May 2022, Israel conducted exercises for this situation, deploying 100 fighter jets and submarines. However, Israel faces significant challenges in carrying out such a mission against Iran, as this would not resemble the operation to destroy Iraq’s Tammuz nuclear reactor in June 1981, where 16 F-16s were used. This time, such an operation is nearly impossible.

Among the preparations Israel began in 2019 was the acquisition of F-35 aircraft with larger fuel tanks, allowing them to carry out strikes on Iran without relying on refuelling tankers, thus completing the mission without requiring mid-air refuelling.

However, an F-35 fighter with larger fuel tanks will not be able to carry enough bombs to strike heavily fortified targets, and, in addition, it will lose some of its stealth technology to avoid detection by Iranian radars. Other aircraft, such as the F-16s and F-15s, will need to refuel, putting them in a very vulnerable position against Iranian radar systems.

The United States is not backing an Israeli strike on Iran, as the Pentagon does not have precise intelligence on the air defence systems Iran possesses—whether they are Russian-made S-400s or other systems manufactured domestically. It stands to reason that any nation capable of producing ballistic and hypersonic missiles, like Iran, can also develop advanced air defence technologies.

The Pentagon is keen to prevent its advanced F-35 jets from being shot down over Iranian soil, fearing a repeat of the 1999 incident when an F-117 Stealth fighter was brought down over Serbia, with its secrets falling into the hands of China and Russia. The Pentagon was forced to halt production of those aircraft and replace them with the more modern F-35 program. The Pentagon also has a bitter history with Iran, dating back to November 2019, when Iranian air forces shot down an RQ-4 Global Hawk drone using their domestically produced “Sevom Khordad” system, despite the drone’s cutting-edge technology.

Tehran, on the other hand, has conveyed a clear message to Israel through intermediaries,[5] warning that any military attack will be met with a harsh and unconventional response, involving the destruction of Israel’s critical civilian and military infrastructure. Given the speed and effectiveness of Iran’s ballistic and hypersonic missiles, one question remains – if Israel attacks Iran with F-35 fighter jets and succeeds, Iran will respond with an unconventional strike on military and civilian airports. Will Israeli fighter jets then find suitable runways in Israel to land on upon their return? Meanwhile, Israel’s threat to launch powerful military strikes against Iran remains merely a media ploy. It is possible that Israel will respond in a more limited way, using long-range missiles that could target non-strategic areas without causing fatalities. This was the case with Israel’s 19 April 2024 strike on the area around the Iranian military airbase near Isfahan.[6]

Resolving the Palestinian issue – the key to regional security and stability

Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran has aspired to become the dominant power in the region. To achieve these historical ambitions, it has embraced the Palestinian cause and the rhetoric of Israel’s destruction as a means to this national goal. Tehran has provided financial and military support to various resistance groups against Israel, particularly Hamas and Hezbollah, the Houthi movement, and other Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, forming the “axis of resistance.” Israel must understand that it cannot destroy Iran, but bringing an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would remove Tehran’s main leverage and eliminate its ability to use the Palestinian issue as a political tool for regional dominance.

Since the founding of Israel, every U.S. administration has supported an Israeli-Palestinian peace based on a two-state solution. Over the past three decades, the United States has attempted to mediate an agreement between the two sides but has largely failed, mainly because neither side is willing to make the concessions demanded by the other. Although the U.S. has never given up and has consistently urged both sides to compromise, it has never wavered from the principle that a two-state solution remains the only practical option. Israel, in particular, must understand that no future U.S. administration is likely to change this stance.

Despite a growing belief among Israelis that the two-state solution is no longer viable, there is no other sustainable option to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Many Israelis have been misled by the false narrative that a Palestinian state would pose an existential threat to Israel, whereas, in reality, Israel’s national security lies precisely in the creation of a Palestinian state, with full cooperation between the two sides on issues ranging from the economy to national security.

Israelis and Palestinians have become increasingly intertwined, making territorial separation virtually impossible. There are about three million Palestinians in the West Bank, more than two million in Gaza, and two million in Israel. Meanwhile, there are more than 700,000 Israelis in the West Bank, including 230,000 in East Jerusalem. The total number of Israeli Jews is approximately equal to the total number of Palestinians across all three areas, each around seven million. Under no circumstances will either side be able to eradicate the other or attempt ethnic cleansing in any form, including through violence.

Whatever the outcome of the escalation or a future war between Iran and Israel, the root cause of the conflict will remain—the Palestinian issue. There is no doubt that peace and stability in the Middle East, which would ensure safety and security for the region’s countries and peoples, as well as for Israel and the Jewish people, begins with the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Ljubljana/Washington/Brussels, 8 October 2024

Published by IFIMES – International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives.”

From Jeopardy to Opportunity: What do Diplomats, Doctors and Engineers have in common?

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From Jeopardy to Opportunity: What do Diplomats, Doctors and Engineers have in common?

“A Thought and a Smile…”

By Eelco H. Dykstra, M.D.

“Our Plan B is that Plan A works”.

This statement means you placed all your eggs are in one basket. Is that smart? Does that prepare you for things you might not know, foresee or expect? Following the ‘9/11’ massacre, the United States government created not only the Department for Homeland Security but also a National Response PLAN (NRP).

A few years later, there was a name change – instead of a plan, it was now known as ‘National Response FRAMEWORK’ (NRF).  Why? Because it became obvious that any plan should allow for flexibility. Unforeseen or unexpected circumstances that could force decisionmakers to abandon or deviate from existing plans, protocols and procedures. The flexibility to improvise.

Imagine…

An engineer tasked to build an underground parking garage.

A medical doctor looking to diagnose and treat a difficult patient.

A diplomat considering stepping in to mediate in an intense conflict.

All three are forward-looking, trying to create something positive. All wanting to reach their goals. All of them focusing on the Opportunity-side of things.  

When we put this in terms of football or soccer, they ask: How do we score goals? Taking advantage of opportunities leads to success. Well, who wouldn’t want this, we all want to be successful in what we do, right?  

Yet there is another side as well, which is the Jeopardy-side of things.

The risks. The things we are afraid of. Unexpected and unforeseen events or circumstances that lead to misery and failure. In terms of football or soccer, now the question becomes: What prevents us from scoring goals? 

In theory, many people will agree that these are two sides of the same coin. In practice however, many people don’t look at both sides together, but at one OR the other. When disconnected, we often see one-sided approaches where opportunity leads to success and glory. But we also see another one-sided approach where jeopardy leads to the doom and gloom of damage, destruction, death and dysfunction.

So, this is what we see:

  • OPPORTUNITY – We see talented entrepreneurs consumed by a desire to quickly convert their startup business into glorious success. Convinced that things cannot go wrong, they only look at the opportunity side. Business degree programs (MBA), investors, consultants and coaches tend to follow and reinforce this one-sided approach. And yes, the mainstream media do the same: let’s say 99 out of 100 start-ups fail and only one survives and thrives against all the odds. Guess who makes the news?   
  • JEOPARDY – On the jeopardy side, we see risk managers and consultants who continuously assess, calculate and talk about the probability and impact of all kinds of risks. It’s the core business of the military and lawyers, insurance brokers, healthcare professionals, and politicians. It’s the realm of fear. The fear for each other (conflict), for the world around them (safety and security), their health (illnesses and death), and their future. They seek reassurance, they seek a semblance of risk-control.    

Back to the engineer, the doctor and the diplomat.

Once they are armed with knowledge and experience, they realize they must consider both sides. They realize that opportunity and jeopardy always travel together.  

Engineers, medical doctors and diplomats switch effortlessly back and forth, equally alert for signs that opportunity may turn into jeopardy and that jeopardy can be turned into opportunity. Anything that doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, right?   

  • ENGINEERS – The thinking of engineers zooms in on how to avoid jeopardy by organizing the work in such a way that materials, machines and manpower lead to finishing the construction on time, within budget and according to contract specifications.
  • MEDICAL DOCTORS – When faced with patients, doctors have it in their DNA to ask themselves three questions:
  • What is – or are – the problem(s)?
  • How can I find out?
  • What am I going to do about it?

Thus, they also zoom in on assessing what the problem is (jeopardy – diagnosis) to then look for the opportunity (the therapy).

  • DIPLOMATS – The thinking of diplomats zooms in on identifying the roots, causes and context of (possible) conflicts to then figure out what the options are for prevention, de-escalation, a sustainable truce or a permanent, peaceful solution.

In short, it’s called systems-thinking.

They consider opportunity and jeopardy on an ‘and-and’ instead of ‘or-or’ basis

They juggle.

They keep not a single ball, but many ‘opportunity balls’ and ‘jeopardy balls’ up in the air.

They look at the big(ger) picture – otherwise, they cannot see the moving parts.

They must see the moving parts – otherwise, they cannot see how they interact.

They must see how they interact – otherwise, they cannot anticipate cascading effects.

How about you?

Can you?

Juggle?

About the author:

Eelco H. Dykstra. Photography by Tom Manning

Once dubbed a ‘Global Nomad’ in East Africa, Eelco H. Dykstra is a seasoned international crisis and emergency expert. As a true ‘Prac-Ademic’, he blends – also in his column “A Thought and a Smile” – his innate optimism with knowledge from his practical experience and rigorous fact-finding. 

Aside from being founder/chair of the Daily Impact Emergency Management (DIEM) network and a visiting professor in South Africa, he initiated the ’20/20 Vision’ program for the dual purpose of strengthening value-based resilience and overcoming the obstacles that stand in the way of implementing lessons (to  be) learned. Eelco has been a correspondent, written multiple books and articles and continues to work extensively with media, government, business, NGO’s and community-based initiatives. In short, Eelco is a transdisciplinary and trans-cultural multi-tasker – just like diplomats are.

Among his hobbies are cooking and playing the cello – see picture, taken by Tom Manning, during an impromptu performance with the Soweto Youth Orchestra.

Eelco H. Dykstra Professor (visiting), Adaptation and Resilience, University of South-Africa, UNISA. Chair, ’20/20 Vision’ Program: How do we go from ‘Risk’ to ‘Resilience”? Founder, Daily Impact Emergency Management (DIEM) Network 
www.diem.nu  www.20outof20.vision

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Zhang Qian: The Diplomat Who Opened the Silk Road

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Zhang Qian: The Diplomat Who Opened the Silk Road

By Prof. Richard T. Griffiths

This is the first of a series of articles about the diplomats that travelled along the fabled ancient silk roads. Their role was to help maintain peace or to prepare for war. On those outcomes rested the fate of the merchants and travellers, the preachers and adventurers who formed the transmission belts for the passage of merchandise and culture.

Some of these envoys became legends, etched into the lore and histories of their nations. Others remain nameless, overshadowed by the great events they helped shape. One of the pioneering diplomats whose name has passed down through history was Zhang Qian (张骞). This is his story.

An inauspicious start

In 138 BCE, Emperor Wu of Han (汉武帝) dispatched Zhang Qian, a military officer, with one hundred men to reach the Yuezhi people and forge an alliance against their joint enemy, the Xiongnu.

The success of the mission depended on being able to pass undetected through Xiongnu territory. Unfortunately they were captured and made slaves. Most of the prisoners acclimatised and assimilated into their new lives. As a result, vigilance may have relaxed. Indeed, Zhang Qian’s apparent compliance might have contributed to it. But Zhang Qian had not forgotten his mission and, after ten years, he and his loyal servant Ganfu, managed to escape.

The journey home

The Xiongnu’s lands were vast, marked by open steppes, deserts, and mountainous regions. Zhang Qian and Ganfu travelled mostly on foot, subsisting on what they could forage, and constantly remained on high alert to avoid capture. Eventually, the party arrived at the centre of the Yuezhi peoples in what is now northern Afghanistan. The Yuezhi had thrived in their new environment and had settled into a peaceful and prosperous existence. They showed little interest in Zhang’s proposal for a military alliance against the Xiongnu or anyone else. Despite the Yuezhi’s disinterest in his proposal, Zhang Qian spent a year diligently documenting their customs and the riches of their lands, understanding the broader implications for the Han Empire. On his way home, Zhang Qian travelled through Central Asia, documenting the wealth and sophistication of regions such as Bactria and Ferghana. He reported bustling markets filled with precious goods and high-quality horses. Then, unbelievably, the Xiongnu captured them again. Two years later, Zhang Qian and Ganfu used the confusion following a dynastic struggle, to escape once again. In 125 BCE they returned to China.

The success of a failure

Zhang had failed to bring the alliance, but he told the Emperor of the (relatively) small but prosperous civilisations in Central Asia with goods that fed into trade routes that extended even further westward. These civilisations had wealth to form a market for Chinese goods and resources to exchange. Beyond these lay even more fabulous civilisations -– the Parthian Empire to the West and India to the South. Zhang, himself, was sent on a second mission to establish a trade route to India (whose products fascinated the Chinese court), which also ended in failure. However, in 119 BCE he was sent to establish peaceful links with the Wusun people, whose territory lay between that of the Xiongnu and Yuezhi. The ‘silk roads’ were now open to Chinese trade.

The story of an accidental hero

Zhang Qian’s story is known to us primarily through Sima Qian’s ‘Shiji’ (史记), a text completed no more than forty years after Zhang Qian’s return. Sima Qian, writing during a time when the Han Dynasty sought to define its place in a vast and interconnected world, framed Zhang Qian’s journey in a way that highlighted the Confucian virtues of loyalty and perseverance. However, as with many ancient sources, the line between historical fact and interpretive narrative is often blurred. Sima Qian’s account, while invaluable, should be understood as part of a broader effort to articulate the Han Dynasty’s imperial ideology and worldview.

Sima Qian likes to frame his history around individuals – high and low. He likes to show that individuals matter; that the virtues and vices they embody do help shape the course of history. In Zhang Qian’s story he concentrates on the Confucian virtues of loyalty, perseverance, and the pursuit of duty.

Sima Qian also shares the traditional Chinese idea of the ‘mandate of heaven’. By sending Zhang Qian on his mission, the emperor is fulfilling his imperial destiny of bringing order and stability to the world. By embracing the new opportunities for trade and exchange offered by Zhang Qian’s observations on foreign peoples and cultures, the emperor is helping unite diverse cultures under the auspices of one just and moral authority.

Zhang Qian’s story is framed as an epic tale of survival, showcasing his unwavering commitment to his mission despite the overwhelming odds. In many ways he is an accidental hero of an historical narrative devoted to show-piecing far larger messages.

Reflection

Zhang Qian’s journey exemplifies the profound impact of individual endeavour on the course of history. Though his mission to secure an alliance failed, his accounts of the Western Regions opened the Han Empire’s eyes to the vast opportunities for trade and cultural exchange. Sima Qian’s portrayal of Zhang Qian not only celebrated his perseverance and loyalty but also served to bolster the Han Dynasty’s imperial narrative.

This blend of fact and interpretation reminds us that history is as much about those who record it as those who live it. Even so, Zhang Qian’s legacy lies not just in the paths he traversed but in the enduring narrative of his journey, illustrating how the bravery of a single envoy can turn attention towards new horizons and help transform the fate of empires.

About the author:

Richard Griffiths is Director of the Silk Road Virtual Museum, covering the years 500-1500 CE, with twenty exhibition spaces providing access to over nine hundred exhibits. You can visit it here

Home – Silk Road Virtual Museum

Cyber Operations as Instruments of Warfare: Risks and Consequences for Civilians in Armed Conflicts

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Cyber Operations as Instruments of Warfare: Risks and Consequences for Civilians in Armed Conflicts

By  Marco Pizzorno

In recent years, cyber operations have emerged as a critical component of modern warfare strategies. With the rise of digitalization and global connectivity, armed conflicts are no longer confined to traditional battlefields; they now extend into cyberspace, where nations engage in sophisticated cyberattacks aimed at disrupting, damaging, or manipulating their adversaries. As military forces increasingly integrate cyber capabilities into their operations, concerns about the implications for civilian populations have come to the forefront.

Cyber warfare can take many forms, from hacking into critical infrastructure systems to conducting disinformation campaigns. According to a report by the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, “cyber operations can be used to achieve strategic objectives without the direct use of force” (NATO CCDCOE, 2019). This capability enables state and non-state actors to conduct operations that can inflict significant damage while maintaining a level of plausible deniability.

One of the most pressing concerns regarding cyber operations is their potential impact on civilian infrastructures. Critical services such as power grids, healthcare systems, and water supply networks are increasingly controlled by digital systems. A cyberattack on these infrastructures can lead to catastrophic consequences for civilian populations. For instance, the 2015 cyberattack on Ukraine’s power grid left over 200,000 people without electricity for several hours, highlighting the vulnerabilities present in critical systems (Zetter, 2016).

Furthermore, the ambiguity surrounding the attribution of cyberattacks complicates the legal and ethical frameworks governing warfare. The principle of distinction requires that combatants must differentiate between military targets and civilian objects. However, in the cyber realm, the lines are often blurred. A cyber operation targeting a military command center may inadvertently affect civilian networks, leading to unintended harm. As highlighted by experts, “the growing reliance on cyber technologies raises significant challenges for civilian protection in armed conflict” (Schmitt, 2017).

The risks to civilians extend beyond immediate physical harm. Cyber operations can generate widespread fear and uncertainty within populations. Disinformation campaigns, for example, can undermine societal trust and provoke panic. The U.S. Department of Defense has acknowledged that “cyber operations can create psychological effects that can influence public perception and morale” (DoD, 2018). This psychological dimension is particularly concerning in the context of hybrid warfare, where cyber tactics are combined with traditional military strategies to achieve broader objectives.

To mitigate the risks associated with cyber operations, there is an urgent need for the development of robust international norms and regulations. While existing frameworks provide some guidance, they do not adequately address the unique challenges posed by cyber warfare. Experts advocate for the establishment of new guidelines specifically tailored to the cyber domain, emphasizing the importance of protecting civilian infrastructure and ensuring accountability for those who conduct cyberattacks against non-combatants (Schmitt, 2017).

In conclusion, as cyber operations increasingly become a staple of modern warfare, the risks to civilian populations cannot be overlooked. The potential for collateral damage, the challenge of attribution, and the psychological impact of cyber operations all underscore the need for a comprehensive approach to address these issues. Policymakers, military leaders, and international organizations must work collaboratively to establish clear norms and protections that prioritize the safety and security of civilians in an era where the battlefield extends far beyond traditional frontlines.

References:

1. NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence. (2019). *The Cyber Operations Handbook*.

2. Zetter, K. (2016). *Inside the Hack of the Century: How Ukraine’s Power Grid Went Dark*. Wired.

3. U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). (2018). *Cyber Strategy: Summary of Key Points*.

4. Schmitt, M. N. (2017). *The Law of Armed Conflict and the Cyber Domain*. International Law Studies.

ICC Prosecutor’ statement on receipt of a referral by the Republic of Lithuania

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ICC Prosecutor’ statement on receipt of a referral by the Republic of Lithuania


On 30 September 2024, the Republic of Lithuania submitted a referral to my Office exercising its prerogative, as a State Party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), under article 14(1) of the  Statute.

In its referral, the Republic of Lithuania requests my Office to investigate alleged crimes against humanity committed in the Republic of Belarus, a non-ICC State party, stating that part of the elements of the alleged crimes was committed on the territory of Lithuania, an ICC State Party.

Specifically, the referral alleges that “beginning in April 2020, and from at least 1 May 2020, partly ongoing to the present day, and continuing, crimes against humanity – including deportation, persecution and other inhumane acts – have been carried out against the civilian population of Belarus, at the behest of senior Belarusian political, law enforcement and military leaders, and that part of the element of these crimes was committed on the territory of Lithuania, bringing such crimes temporally, territorially, and materially (by subject-matter) within the jurisdiction of the Court”.

As a result, the Government of Lithuania request my Office “to investigate all past, ongoing and future crimes within the Court’s jurisdiction, including as referred, as committed in the territory of the Republic of Belarus, and partly on the territory of Lithuania, since at least 1 May 2020”.

In accordance with the Rome Statute, a State Party may refer to my Office a situation in which one or more crimes within the jurisdiction of the Court appear to have been committed, requesting the Office to investigate the situation for the purpose of determining whether one or more specific persons should be charged with the commission of such crimes. A State Party referral does not automatically lead to the opening of an investigation.

I can confirm that my Office will conduct a preliminary examination to examine the request within the limits of the ICC jurisdiction, and to determine, based on statutory requirements, if there is a reasonable basis to proceed with the opening of an investigation.

Any interested person or entity who wishes to submit information to the OTP on these or other alleged crimes committed under the ICC’s jurisdiction may use OTPLink, a secure platform to receive such submissions

Elevating Diplomatic Hospitality at the Iconic Kurhaus

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Elevating Diplomatic Hospitality at the Iconic Kurhaus

In this insightful interview,  Diplomat Magazine sits down with Marcel Menzo, Sales Manager of the historic Grand Hotel Amrâth Kurhaus in Scheveningen. With a unique background in sports marketing and extensive international experience, Menzo shares how his career transition has shaped his approach to hospitality and diplomacy.

Menzo brings a fresh perspective to the hospitality industry, focusing on delivering exceptional service to the hotel’s diverse clientele. In this conversation, we explore the unique advantages the Kurhaus offers to diplomatic missions, the ongoing renovations enhancing its allure, and how Menzo’s management style aligns with the needs of diplomatic guests.

DM- You made a remarkable career switch from sports management to hotel management. How have your experiences in the sports industry influenced your approach as Sales Manager at the Grand Hotel Amrâth Kurhaus?

The switch is not exactly from sports management to hotel management, but rather from being the owner of a sports marketing agency to becoming the Manager of Sales in the hospitality industry. Through extensive travel for my own business, I gained insights into what hospitality entails and learned about the differences in customs and approaches across various countries and cultures.

Sales has been the common thread throughout my career, and it was this aspect of the position that attracted me the most. With over 20 years of experience in sales, I was eager to take on the challenge of achieving the sales targets for the Kurhaus. I believe the connecting factor between sports and hospitality is dealing with people and working together as a team to reach a successful outcome. This has enabled me to execute my role on five different levels.

DM- The Kurhaus is known for its rich history and elegant atmosphere. How do you balance preserving this charm while integrating modern amenities for diplomatic guests??

It is essential to understand the needs and desires of our diplomatic guests. In my opinion, their focus is more on personal attention than on modern facilities. From this perspective, we work hard on training our staff. However, we are not stagnant when it comes to facilities either. The integration of modern elements mainly happens in the background, such as the installation of LED lighting, heat pumps, and similar upgrades.

The Kurhaus has also achieved the Green Key Gold certification in this regard. While these modern amenities may not be visible in the rooms, they directly contribute to meeting the expectations of the modern traveler, including diplomatic missions. Our primary focus remains on the guest experience, both in the rooms and throughout the hotel. I personally welcome every diplomatic delegation, which sets the tone from the start.

DM- What sets the Kurhaus apart for embassies looking for event venues? How do you cater to the specific needs of diplomatic missions? 

It’s the combination of the large square footage, which is unparalleled in the area, and our personal service. The grandeur and history of the hotel are reflected in every room. This allows us to cater to any request, from intimate private dinners in the Spiegelzaal to stately gatherings in the former ballroom.

The iconic Kurzaal is a true showpiece of the hotel, where many wonderful events have taken place (such as national days) and where many more will take place in the future. Since the Kurhaus is located by the sea, it offers guests who work daily in the center of The Hague a perfect opportunity to escape from their business activities for a while. With the sea as a backdrop, the boulevard as a relaxing walk, and a magnificent sunset, after a night at the Kurhaus, you can start the next workday feeling refreshed.

DM-  What do you find most rewarding about working with diplomatic clients? How do their needs and expectations differ from other guests, and how do you ensure their experience at the Kurhaus exceeds these expectations?

The most rewarding aspect of working with diplomatic clients is the trust and loyalty you build, which grows over time. As mentioned earlier, I can easily empathize with different cultures and customs, allowing me to quickly establish rapport and create an environment where diplomatic guests feel comfortable. Every guest is equal to me and receives the same treatment.

This is, however, where we differ from our other guests. We treat every corporate guest as a VIP, but embassies often require a different approach and will always be handled by me personally as their unique point of contact. The experience that we, from the General Manager to all operational staff, provide will hopefully enable us to welcome more delegations in the future and grow into the ambassador hotel of the region.

Marcel Menzo

“Known for its timeless elegance and seaside charm, the Kurhaus has become a prominent venue for diplomatic events and international gatherings, offering personal attention and customized services for high-profile guests.“

Cultural Fusion in Delft – The Elegance of Algerian Fashion and Ceramics Shining in the Royal City

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Cultural Fusion in Delft – The Elegance of Algerian Fashion and Ceramics Shining in the Royal City

The Algerian Cultural Week in the Netherlands, organized by the Algerian Embassy in The Hague, to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the Algerian Revolution, brought together several Algerian artisans in various events, notably the festival of Embassies in The Hague and Delft festival. Among the participants were Mr. Fouad Azzi, a renowned haute couture designer, and Mr. Karim Haddaoui, a talented ceramist.

After discovering Delft during a festival on September 9th, both artists chose the royal city as the ideal backdrop to showcase part of the rich and diverse Algerian cultural heritage through a photo shoot highlighting Traditional Algerian Attire and Ceramics.

Models, dressed in traditional Algerian garments from Azzi’s collection and displaying delicate ceramic pieces crafted by Haddaoui, were featured in iconic locations throughout Delft, including the Prinsenhof Museum Garden, Oostpoort, Hortus Botanicus Garden, the Delft bridges, and the Vermeer Centrum Delft.

As they harmoniously blended with the city’s picturesque surroundings, the vivid colors of the Algerian costumes created a striking contrast with Delft’s historic architecture, producing a captivating and unique atmosphere.This visual exchange between Algerian tradition and the Dutch setting caught the attention of passersby, enriching the cultural and artistic character of the event. Azzi’s creations, such as the Karakou and Glila of Algiers, the Mlehfa, Chaoui dress, the Constantine Gandoura, and the Tlemcen Caftan Al kadhi, stood out with their gold and silver thread embroidery, embodying a subtle blend of tradition and modernity.

The models also showcased exquisite ceramic pieces, including plates, lampshades, jars, paintings, and bonbonnières, created by Mr. Karim Haddaoui, an Algerian ceramic artist.

These refined works, adorned with Islamic and Berber motifs, reflect the richness of Algerian heritage and are considered true treasures of the country’s craftsmanship.

Rooted in the ancient history of the region, they demonstrate ancestral know-how passed down through generations, while incorporating contemporary influences. Their vibrant colors and floral patterns give them a unique, lively dimension, further enhancing this artistic heritage.

The Azzi Atelier, specializing in haute couture and embroidery, was founded in 1965 by Mr. Azzi Med Lakhdar.

Creativity at the atelier has been passed down from father to son, expressed through a wide range of traditional clothing such as the Constantine Guendoura, the Algiers Karakou, the Tlemcen Caftan Al Kadhi, the Kabyle dress, the Chaoui dress. The Azzi Atelier regularly participates in cultural and economic events, both nationally and internationally, in cities such as Paris, Shanghai, Seoul, and Milan, and has received many prestigious awards.

As for Mr. Karim Haddaoui, he is an accomplished ceramist, a fine arts graduate, who has enjoyed a rich career s an art teacher and president of the Chamber of Crafts and Trades of Algiers.

His work has been recognized with numerous awards, both nationally and internationally, including the Alpha d’Or prize in Valencia, Spain.

From left to right: Mr Faouad Azzi, a haute couture designer, Mr. Keddid, President of the Chamber of Crafts in Bejaia and Mr. Karim Haddaoui, a ceramist.

Encouraged by the success of this event, the Algerian Embassy plans to organize further similar events across the Netherlands to strengthen cultural ties between the two countries.

Latin American Digital Leap

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Latin American Digital Leap

By Valentina Carvajal Caballero

On August 1st, a key corporate event was organized by the Association for the Progress of Management (APD) in partnership with Clan Nativus. APD, a renowned organization dedicated to promoting management excellence, joined forces with Clan Nativus, a collaborative platform that empowers businesses with digital tools and solutions for successful digital transformation. This event, held in Bogotá, Colombia, brought together leading experts and executives from Colombia and Latin America to discuss the transformative impact of digital technologies.

Key topics on the agenda included the metaverse, augmented reality, cybersecurity, NFCs, blockchain, human talent development, artificial intelligence in finance, business productivity, and automatization. Renowned speakers and senior managers from prominent companies and multinationals shared their insights and experiences, shedding light on the opportunities and challenges presented by digital transformation.

At the heart of the discussions was a recurring theme: the profound impact of digital transformation on human talent. While technology offers immense potential for growth and innovation, it also presents significant challenges that must be addressed to ensure a just and equitable future for all.

The Technological Divide: A Growing Conflict

Digital transformation promises improvements in efficiency, innovation, and competitiveness. However, it has also created a significant divide between companies that can quickly adapt and those that lag behind. This phenomenon not only affects market competitiveness but also directly impacts human talent development. Large, well-funded companies have the ability to invest in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and augmented reality. These investments not only transform their operations but also allow them to attract and retain top talent. Employees in these companies have access to continuous learning tools, enabling them to stay updated and competitive in an ever-evolving job market.

This disparity is particularly evident in the region’s SMEs, which often lack the resources to invest in advanced digital tools and infrastructure.This creates an imbalance in job opportunities and talent development. For example, during the forum, a prominent Colombian SME owner shared his experience of struggling to compete with larger rivals due to limited access to digital marketing tools. While his business had a strong product, he was unable to reach a wider audience and increase sales without investing in online advertising and e-commerce platforms.

The Skills Gap: A Barrier to Progress

The rapid pace of technological change has created a skills gap in Latin America. A study by the World Economic Forum found that 54% of Latin American workers will need to acquire new skills or upgrade their existing ones by 2025 (WEF, 2020). This skills gap is particularly pronounced in rural areas and among marginalized populations, where access to education and training is limited.

One of the most memorable moments of the forum was a panel discussion featuring TOTTO -Colombian brand known for its high-quality backpacks, bags, and accessories, popular across Latin America and beyond- the panelist shared its experience of adapting to the changing job market and the challenges they faced in acquiring new skills. Many expressed concerns about job security and the fear of being left behind in the digital age.

Cultural and Political Implications

The cultural impact of digital transformation in Latin America extends beyond the workplace. As companies evolve, so too must the skills and cultural competencies of the workforce. However, the uneven adoption of digital technologies is causing a cultural rift. Traditional industries, which form a significant part of the Latin American economy, are struggling to keep pace with the rapid changes, leading to a cultural resistance to digitalization.

Moreover, the political landscape in Latin America plays a crucial role in shaping the digital transformation agenda. Governments in the region are increasingly recognizing the need to invest in digital infrastructure and education to prepare their populations for the future of work. However, political instability and varying levels of commitment across countries have resulted in inconsistent progress. In some cases, digital transformation initiatives are being used as political tools, leading to short-term gains rather than long-term development.

For example, countries like Brazil and Mexico have made significant strides in promoting digital literacy and supporting SMEs in their digitalization efforts. However, in countries with less political stability, such as Venezuela, the lack of coherent digital policies has further marginalized large segments of the population, exacerbating social inequalities and limiting the potential for economic growth.

The Impact on Employment and Wages

While automation and artificial intelligence can lead to job losses in certain sectors, they can also create new opportunities in others. However, the distribution of these opportunities is uneven. A study by the International Labour Organization (ILO) found that the digital economy has created 12 million jobs in Latin America and the Caribbean since 2010, but many of these jobs require high-level skills that are not widely available (ILO, 2022).

During the forum, a representative from a leading tech company named Baker Tilly, discussed the company’s efforts to create new jobs in data analytics, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity. While the company was committed to providing training and development opportunities for its employees, the representative also highlighted the need for governments and educational institutions to invest in workforce development programs to ensure that workers have the skills needed to fill these new roles.

Potential Solutions: Towards Inclusive and Secure Digital Transformation

During the forum, several solutions were proposed to address the emerging conflicts of digital transformation. One of the main recommendations was the creation of technological inclusion policies that promote equitable access to digital tools. This could include government subsidies or support programs to help SMEs access the same technologies as large corporations.

Additionally, the need to develop continuous learning programs accessible to all employees was emphasized. Companies must take responsibility for offering digital skills training, whether through online courses, workshops, or professional retraining programs. This will not only improve employees’ competitiveness but also contribute to the long-term success of businesses.

Regarding cybersecurity, strengthening regulatory frameworks and companies’ internal policies to protect both business and employee information was recommended. Creating secure digital environments is essential to ensuring that digital transformation does not become an unnecessary threat.

Digital transformation presents both opportunities and challenges for human talent in Latin America. By addressing the skills gap, promoting digital inclusion, and investing in education and training, governments and businesses can help ensure that the region’s workforce is well-equipped to thrive in the digital age. As the forum concluded, it was clear that the future of work in Latin America depends on a collaborative effort to harness the power of technology while mitigating its risks.

About the author:

Valentina Carvajal Caballero, Colombia ’s Universidad de Los Andes.

Valentina Carvajal Caballero is a communication and digital media student at La Universidad de Los Andes. As an Information Officer at IFIMES, she applies her expertise in research and digital transformation to advance the organization’s goals.

Founder of Clan Nativus Phydigital Agendas, Valentina combines her entrepreneurial drive with a deep understanding of Latin American digital landscapes to promote positive change through technology.

Bibliography:

  1. World Economic Forum (WEF). (2020). The Future of Jobs Report 2020. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2020/
  2. International Labour Organization (ILO). (2022). World Employment Report 2022: The Future of Work. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/research-and-publications/flagship-and-major-reports/world-employment-and-social-outlook/world-employment-and-social-outlook-trends-2022
  3. Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). (2023). Digital Transformation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Opportunities. Inter-American Development Bank. https://flagships.iadb.org/en/MicroReport/digitalizing-public-services-opportunities-for-latin-america-and-the-caribbean

Resources on Digital Divide and Inequality in Latin America

  1. World Bank. (2021). Digital Development: Bridging the Digital Divide in Latin America and the Caribbean. World Bank. https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/latinamerica/poor-digital-access-holding-latin-america-and-caribbean-back-heres-how-change-it
  2. United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). (2020). The Digital Divide in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Opportunities. ECLAC. https://www.cepal.org/en

Resources on Cybersecurity and Digital Risks

  1. Latin American Cybersecurity Outlook 2023. (2023). [invalid URL removed]
  2. International Telecommunication Union (ITU). (2022). Global Cybersecurity Index 2022. ITU. https://www.itu.int/pub/D-STR-GCI.01

The Celebration of National Day and Malaysia Day 2024

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The Celebration of National Day and Malaysia Day 2024

By Roy Lie Atajm

The celebration of both National Day (31 August) and Malaysia Day ( 16 September)  was joyfully marked by the Malaysian Embassy, The Hague, Netherlands with a delightful dinner on 21 September 2024.

The seated dinner in The Hague was a big hit, with guests enjoying about eight different items. H.E. Ambassador Roseli Abdul warmly addressed his guests and encouraged them to savour Malaysia’s rich culture, especially its delicious cuisine.

H.E. Mr. Mayerfas, Ambassador of Indonesia, H.E. Mr. Sekul Unal, Ambassador of Turkey, H.E. Ambassador Roseli Abdul of Malaysia, H.E. Ms Sahar Ghanem, Ambassador of Yemen and Dean of the Diplomatic Corps, H.E. Mr. Huong Nam Ngo, Ambassador of Vietnam, and the Ambassador of the Kingdom of Thailand H.E. Mr. Asi Mamanee.

The Ambassador also shared the following warm welcome, “As we commemorate 67 years of Malaysia’s independence, it is incredible to think about how far we have come as a nation. From our humble beginnings in 1957, we have transformed into a vibrant, diverse, and progressive society. Our achievements have been built on the principles of unity, tolerance, and resilience – values that we hold dear as Malaysians.

Under the leadership of our Prime Minister, Yang Amat Berhormat Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, we are embarking on a new chapter in our nation’s story. The Malaysia MADANI policy, with its focus on sustainability, prosperity, innovation, respect, trust, and compassion, is not just a government initiative – it is a collective aspiration for all Malaysians. It challenges us to build a nation that is not only economically prosperous but also socially harmonious and globally respected.

As we look to the future, we see a Malaysia that is at the forefront of the digital economy, a leader in sustainable development, and a beacon of multicultural harmony. We envision a nation where every citizen, regardless of background, has the opportunity to thrive and contribute to our shared success.

This vision is not a distant dream, but a reality we are actively working towards, step by step, day by day. Now, turning to the friendship between Malaysia and the Netherlands, I am proud to say that our ties have only grown stronger over the years. This year, we celebrate 67 years of diplomatic relations between our two countries. Malaysia and the Netherlands share a relationship grounded in mutual respect and cooperation.

H.E. Mr. Sekul Unal, Ambassador of Turkey, H.E. Mr. Mayerfas, Ambassador of Indonesia, H.E. Ambassador Roseli Abdul of Malaysia, H.E. Ms Sahar Ghanem, Ambassador of Yemen and Dean of the Diplomatic Corps, H.E. Mr. Huong Nam Ngo, Ambassador off Vietnam, and the Ambassador of the Kingdom of Thailand H.E. Mr. Asi Mamanee.
Mrs. Khadijah Kok Abdullah, Ambassador of Malaysia’ Spouse

Our partnership extends across various sectors: trade, investment, education, and culture. The Netherlands remains one of Malaysia’s top trading partners in Europe, and Dutch companies have long been invested in Malaysia’s growth story, particularly in sectors like technology, agriculture, and green energy.

Beyond economics, what truly strengthens our ties is the people-to-people connection. I see many of you here tonight, fellow Malaysians who have made the Netherlands your second home, contributing to the local society while staying deeply connected to our beloved Malaysia. The Malaysian community here is an integral part of the fabric of our bilateral relations, and I cannot express how proud I am of all of you for carrying Malaysia’s name with such pride and grace.

To our Dutch friends and partners, thank you for your continuous support and friendship. Let us continue to work hand in hand to create a brighter future for both our countries.

As we come together to celebrate 67 years of Malaysia’s independence and reflect on the path ahead, let us not forget the unity that has brought us this far. Under the vision of Malaysia MADANI and with strong partnerships like the one we share with the Netherlands, I am confident that Malaysia will continue to shine as a beacon of hope, progress, and unity.

During celebration dinner, Malaysia 67 Anniversary.

Before I conclude, allow me to share a pantun, a traditional form of Malay poetry, often used to convey meaningful messages in an elegant, rhythmic form. It reflects the beauty of our culture, and tonight, I offer this pantun as a closing tribute to our shared hopes for the future.

Anak kecil bermain baling.

Terkena ranting lalu tersenyum,”

Bersama kita melangkah seiring,

Malaysia maju, negara makmur.”

UNGA Resolution 2758 brooks no challenge and One-China Principle is unshakable

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By H.E. Mr. Tan Jian, Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to the Kingdom of the Netherlands

Recently, the head of the relevant department of the Taiwan authorities published an article in Dutch media, deliberately distorting and challenging one-China principle and UNGA Resolution 2758, trumpeting the notion that Taiwan`s status is undetermined, and advocating support for Taiwan`s participation throughout the UN system.

In view of this, it is more than necessary to explain this important question and clarify its root cause to our Dutch friends.

In 1971, Resolution 2758 was adopted at the 26th Session of the UN General Assembly stated in black and white that it “decides to restore all its rights to the People’s Republic of China and to recognize the representatives of its Government as the only legitimate representatives of China to the United Nations, and to expel forthwith the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek from the place which they unlawfully occupy at the United Nations and in all the organizations related to it.” If China’s representation at the UN does not include Taiwan, why should “the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek” be expelled from the UN? And Taiwan, as a part of China, did not need to be singled out in the resolution, just like Hawaii or Alaska that were not mentioned in the representation of the US.

The resolution made it clear that the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China at the UN; Taiwan is not a country but a part of China’s territory. It makes clear Taiwan’s status as a non-sovereign entity. UNGA Resolution 2758 resolved once and for all politically, legally and procedurally the issue of the representation of the whole of China, including Taiwan, at the UN. The resolution also made clear that there can only be one seat representing China at the UN and precluded the possibility of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan.”

For decades, the UN and its agencies have abided by UNGA Resolution 2758, firmly upheld that Taiwan is a province of China, and denied the so-called international representation claimed by the Taiwan authorities. In bilateral relations too, the one-China principle serves as the political and legal foundation of Sino-Dutch relations, as well as China`s diplomatic ties with 183 countries all over the world.

In recent years, the separatist forces of China’s Taiwan Region were attempting to invent a whole set of false narratives to mislead international public opinion, as what they were trying to do in the Dutch media. But fifty years on, anyone who attempts to challenge the historical and legal fact will only embarrass themselves in the face of a much broader-based international consensus and wide support for the just cause. Challenging the One-China principle will end up nowhere and turning back the wheel of history will not succeed.  China will never allow anyone or any force to separate Taiwan from the motherland in any way.

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the Open and Pragmatic Partnership for Comprehensive Cooperation between China and the Netherlands. The key to our sound development of bilateral relations is mutual understanding and support on issues involving each other’s core interests and major concerns. It is our expectation that the Netherlands could keep its promise of One-China principle, so that our two countries could further strengthen cooperation and deepen friendship.

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