The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route and strengthening the EU-Kyrgyzstan partnership

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The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route and strengthening the EU-Kyrgyzstan partnership

By The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies / IFIMES

The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and the evolving security situation in the Red Sea, due to attacks by the Yemeni Houthi movement on ships in this critical global trade corridor, have forced European countries to find an alternative commercial transport route that connects them with China without going through Russia, the Red Sea, or the Suez Canal.

Europe’s attention is now focused more than ever on the Middle Corridor, a combined land, sea, and rail trade route that can link China with the EU. In 2023, China was the EU’s third-largest export partner accounting for 8.8% of EU exports, while imports from China made up 20.5% of the EU’s total imports. Germany is leading European efforts to strengthen the infrastructure of this corridor to bypass the northern trade route, which connects China to Europe and passes through Russia. The three largest exporters to China from the EU are Germany (€97 billion), France (€25 billion), and the Netherlands (€22 billion)[2].

The Middle Corridor “TITR”

The Middle Corridor, known as the “Trans-Caspian International Transport Route” (TITR), is one of the three global trade corridors between China and Europe. Spanning 4,256 kilometres, it includes both land roads and railways, as well as 508 kilometres of sea routes. The corridor begins in the Chinese city of Kashgar and continues through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to the port of Türkmenbaşy on the Caspian Sea coast in Turkmenistan. From there, goods are transported in containers through Azerbaijan and Georgia to the railway station in Kars in northern Turkey, and then onward to Turkish sea ports before reaching Europe.

There are two main trade routes connecting Asia with Europe:

  • The first is the sea route through the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and the Mediterranean Sea, which serves as the main artery for international trade. Recent tensions in the Red Sea resulted in a 50% reduction in traffic since the beginning of 2024, forcing maritime traffic to take a longer route around the African continent via the Cape of Good Hope.
  • The second route is the Northern Corridor, which connects China with Europe via a railway that passes through Russia.

According to data from the Turkish Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, the Middle Corridor is notably faster compared to the Northern Corridor, which passes through Russia. In comparison, the Northern Corridor spans around 10,000 kilometres and requires at least 15 days for transport. The Southern maritime route, approximately 20,000 kilometres long, takes between 45 and 60 days[3].

The World Bank (WB) presented key findings from its latest study on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, during a regional presentation in Tbilisi on 27 February 2024[4]. Cargo transport volume on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route increased by 88% in the first nine months of 2023, reaching two million tons. This underscores the growing reliance of global trade on this corridor[5].

New geopolitical alliances in Central Asia 2024

Historically, Central Asia — encompassing Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan — has served as a geostrategic hub connecting Asia and Europe through infrastructure, trade, and energy networks. It remains the largest landlocked region in the world without access to global seas.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian countries encountered significant challenges. Geopolitically, they have enhanced their infrastructure by forging stronger ties with China. 

Simultaneously, these nations have aligned their long-term economic policies towards the West to attract investments and support development efforts.

U.S. policy towards the region

Historically, there was little significant Western interest in Central Asia, but the situation has now changed as the region has become a focal point of geopolitical competition among major powers: Russia, China, the United States, and the EU.

In September 2023, American President Joe Biden met for the first time with the presidents of the five Central Asian states (Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. President Biden described this meeting as a “historic moment.”[6]

The sudden U.S. withdrawal from neighbouring Afghanistan in 2021, coupled with Russian-Chinese rivalry in the region, has paved the way for new alliances in Central Asia. In essence, it is no longer a “forgotten region” but rather an emerging region preparing for a “decisive game.”

Despite challenges, leaders of Central Asian states are persistently working to institutionalize their regional alliance, particularly through regular annual meetings aimed at creating better conditions for trade and investment.

President Biden has proposed launching the C5+1 Dialogue on critical minerals to develop and harness the abundant mineral wealth of Central Asia. Kazakhstan looks to the United States for support in establishing a UN Regional Center for Sustainable Development Goals. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan is actively encouraging international investors to invest in its hydropower sector.

Japan: A new player in Central Asia

Interestingly, Japan has recently embarked on efforts to engage in the geopolitical game of courting Central Asian countries. While Tokyo and Central Asian nations have shared historical ties since ancient times, Japan’s recent interest in the region appears to be growing.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to visit Central Asia in August 2024 and participate in the inaugural summit with the leaders of the five-country group (Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan). Meanwhile, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov visited Tokyo on 2 November 2023, aiming to reduce the dependency of Central Asian countries on Russia and China. During a joint press conference, the Japanese prime minister emphasized the significance of strengthening cooperation with Central Asia, particularly in sustainable development, infrastructure support, and human resource development. Looking ahead, Japan could potentially assist in developing the Caspian Sea transport route, and Tokyo may also actively participate in projects involving renewable energy and decarbonization in Central Asian countries[7].

EU policy towards Central Asia

President of the European Council, Charles Michel, visited Kyrgyzstan on 3 June 2023, to participate in the Second Summit between the European Union and Central Asia, a region currently experiencing intense competition among major powers. The event took place just two weeks after President Xi Jinping’s summit with the leaders of the five Central Asian states on 18 May 2023. China is consolidating its economic dominance in this traditionally Russian-influenced region, which is pivotal for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), valued at one trillion dollars.

The Russo-Ukrainian war has given new impetus to relations between Central Asia and the European Union. With Moscow preoccupied with the conflict and ensuing sanctions, leaders of Central Asian states are taking steps to diversify their partnerships and reduce dependency on Russia and China, while simultaneously enhancing relations with Turkey, India, Japan, UAE, and others.

The European Union is the largest donor to the region, providing 1.1 billion euros in aid between 2014 and 2020. Furthermore, the EU stands as the leading investment partner in Central Asia, representing 42% of total investments, significantly ahead of the United States (14.2%), Russia (6%), and China (3.7%).

In early 2023, the EU threatened to impose additional sanctions on countries accused of aiding Russia in circumventing Western sanctions, including Central Asian states. This EU move aims to mitigate the impact of sanctions against Russia, which could indirectly affect Central Asian countries and potentially push them closer into Moscow’s embrace. Despite the region’s declared commitment to pursuing a multilateral foreign policy, these nations maintain close ties with Russia due to military, economic alliances, and cultural connections. Meanwhile, China has taken a more active role in the region by approving significant loans to finance the “New Silk Routes” massive infrastructure projects.

Political systems in Central Asia remain the focus of Western non-governmental organizations (NGOs), which characterize them as authoritarian. However, the official policy of the EU is not influenced by such considerations. The truth is that these countries have strong central administrations with significant presidential powers, similar to many Western states such as the US, France, and others.

President Japarov enhanced EU-Kyrgyzstan partnership

Five years after concluding negotiations and initialling the draft Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA), Kyrgyzstan and the European Union signed the agreement in Brussels during the working visit of Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov on 25 June 2024. The ceremony took place in the presence of President Japarov and President of the European Council Charles Michel[8].

EPCA replaces the earlier Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) from 1999, which had previously formed the basis of EU-Kyrgyzstan relations.

High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, Josep Borrell, stated: “We are happy to count the Kyrgyz Republic amongst our close partners.” He characterized the EPCA as a demonstration of the EU’s “steadfast commitment to strengthening and deepening our bilateral relations based on shared values and common interests in all areas of mutual benefit, reflecting new geopolitical and economic realities.” The European External Action Service (EEAS) later released a statement quoting Borrell, emphasizing that the EU is “pleased to count the Kyrgyz Republic amongst our close partners.”

The EEAS highlighted key areas of cooperation including trade, investment, sustainable development, connectivity, research, innovation, education, environmental protection, climate change, as well as governance, human rights, and civil society.

The EU anticipates that this agreement will facilitate “strengthening cooperation in foreign and security policy, including conflict prevention and crisis management, risk reduction, cybersecurity, regional stability, disarmament, non-proliferation, arms control, and export control.”[9]

Analysts highlight the significance of advancing EU-Kyrgyzstan relations, largely attributed to President Sadyr Japarov’s efforts and commitment to improve ties with the European Union. The signed EPCA agreement serves as the formal foundation for enhancing relations across all sectors.

Ljubljana/Bruxelles/Bishkek, 9 August 2024     

Footnotes:
[1] IFIMES – International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives.”

[2] China – EU – International trade in goods statistics. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=China-EU_-_international_trade_in_goods_statistics   

[3] Türkiye’s Multilateral Transportation Policy. Available at:  www.mfa.gov.tr/turkiye_s-multilateral-transportation-policy.en.mfa .

[4] World Bank Presents Key Findings of Latest Study on Middle Corridor in Tbilisi. Available at: https://astanatimes.com/2024/03/world-bank-presents-key-findings-of-latest-study-on-middle-corridor-in-tbilisi/

[5] Cargo Transportation Along Middle Corridor Soars 88%, Reaches 2 Million Tons in 2023 

[6] First Central Asia – USA summit in New York – Agenda and Initiatives. Available at:  www.newscentralasia.net/2023/09/20/first-central-asia-usa-summit-in-new-york-agenda-and-initiatives/   
https://astanatimes.com/2023/12/cargo-transportation-along-middle-corridor-soars-88-reaches-2-million-tons-in-2023/

[7] Japan looks to wean Kyrgyzstan off reliance on China, Russia. Available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Japan-looks-to-wean-Kyrgyzstan-off-reliance-on-China-Russia

[8] Factsheet on Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between the EU and Kyrgyz Republic, Available at: www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/factsheet-enhanced-partnership-and-cooperation-agreement-between-eu-and-kyrgyz-republic_en

[9] Kyrgyzstan, EU Sign Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. Available at:  https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/kyrgyzstan-eu-sign-enhanced-partnership-and-cooperation-agreement/ 

A law that can ‘legalize pedophilia’ is on the table

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A law that can ‘legalize pedophilia’ is on the table

Critics say that the amendment would allow legal child marriage and harm women’s status

The Jerusalem Post (05.08.2024) – A proposed amendment to Iraq’s Personal Status Law is causing controversy, especially among women’s rights supporters. The amended law would allow men to decide upon marriage whether to follow Sunni or Shiite family law and would give clerics unprecedented legal authority. Critics say it would deprive Shiite women of basic rights and even open the door to child marriage.

The draft amendment would change inheritance law in Iraq by mandating that inheritance operate by sect. Under the current law, which is based on Sunni inheritance customs, a woman whose husband dies inherits his estate. The amended law would allow women in Sunni marriages to inherit from their husbands but would ban women in Shiite marriages from doing so, in accordance with Shiite custom.

Custody law is also differentiated by sect under the amendment. Sunni custody customs, which currently apply to all Iraqis, mandate that a divorced woman maintain custody of her children until they reach puberty, at which point the children can decide which parent to live with. Under Shiite law, the children’s father automatically receives custody unless he chooses otherwise.

A woman seeking divorce from a Shiite man under the amended law would be forced to pay a sum of money to her husband to end the marriage. In current Iraqi family law, based on Sunni custom, a woman can request a separation and be granted a divorce by a judge if she provides adequate justification.

One of the most controversial effects of the amended law would be the legalization of “pleasure marriage,” a concept unique to the Shiite sect. A pleasure marriage, known in Arabic as nikah mut’ah, is a temporary marriage that can last as little as an hour. Unlike a permanent marriage, a pleasure marriage does not require registration in court or the presence of witnesses.

Critics say that the legalization of pleasure marriage would be devastating to the status of Shiite women and could be used to legitimate child marriage and prostitution.

Iraqi nongovernmental organizations, human rights activists, lawyers, Sunni clerics, and many political parties have heavily criticized the amendment. But the ruling Shiite coalition, known as the Coordination Framework, insists on passing the amendment, as do Iraq’s Shiite clerics.

An Iraqi parliamentary source, who declined to be named, told The Media Linethat the Shiite authority in Najaf, Iraq is pushing the Shiite parties to pass the amendment.

“They are now negotiating with us—either we pass the law or no other law proposed by the rest of the blocs will be passed, and since they are the majority, they may pass this law, but they need more votes,” the source said.

Much of the discussion of the amendment relates to dynamics between Iraq’s Shiite majority and Sunni minority and is taking place in a parliament obstructed by those same dynamics. The parliament, the Council of Representatives of Iraq, has been without a speaker since November 2023, when the Federal Supreme Court removed Sunni Speaker of Parliament Mohamed al-Halbousi from his post. (According to Iraqi custom, the speaker is always Sunni, the prime minister is Shiite, and the president is Kurdish.) Divisions between the two major Sunni parties have kept the parliament without a speaker for the past eight months.

Amendment to the law

The parliamentary source said that the authority that the law gives to clerics is unconstitutional, as is the lack of reference to religious groups other than Sunni or Shiite Muslims. Around 2% of Iraq’s population, or about 890,000 people, are not Muslim.

While Shiite parties are intent on passing the Personal Status Law amendment, Sunni parties are working to pass a general amnesty law, the source said. That law would grant amnesty for the many Iraqis convicted of terrorism without just cause, most of whom are Sunni.

The source said that negotiations will likely lead to both the amended Personal Status Law and the general amnesty law being passed or to neither of them passing.

In a statement published on its website, the Coordination Framework called on the Council of Representatives to proceed with the first reading of the amendment. It described the proposed amendment as “in harmony with the constitution, which stipulates that Iraqis are free to make their choices in a manner that does not conflict with the constants of Sharia and the foundations of democracy.”

“The Shiite woman is the biggest loser from this law if it is passed,” Heba Al-Naib, an Iraqi journalist and member of several women’s associations, told The Media Line. She said that the new law would lead to legalized child marriage in Iraq, in contradiction to the original 1959 Personal Status Law, which requires that both members of a couple be above 18 years old to marry.

“The law legalizes pedophilia,” Al-Naib said. “There are cases of marriage outside the law for young children, some of them 8 or 9 years old. This used to happen outside the courts and only with a contract from a cleric. Now this will become official. Instead of the state fighting it, it will become legal.”

She also said that the legalization of pleasure marriage would lead to “official prostitution.”

The Shiite Women’s Support Association has seen thousands of cases of women involved in pleasure marriages, Al-Naib said. “After the man spent a day or two with them and they became pregnant, the husband refused to acknowledge the children, considering that they might be children from another temporary marriage and not from him,” she explained.

Nawar Assem, founder of the Dream Women’s Organization, told The Media Line that unofficial estimates suggest that more than half a million marriages in Iraq involve children under the age of 15. Official figures show that around 250,000 Iraqi girls under 18 are married, she said.

“Shiite women in particular will be wronged, and Iraqi women in general, if child marriage is allowed,” Assem said. “Most of these marriages end either in crime, divorce, an unhappy life, or death, as a result of the girl becoming pregnant before she can bear children and raise them.”

She said that she and other activists will fight against the amendment even if they are threatened with murder.

Talal al-Azzawi, an Iraqi lawyer, noted that the amendment allows a man, but not a woman, to choose which sect the couple will follow.

“What is the fault of the Sunni woman that the provisions of the Shiite sect are imposed on her because it is the sect of the husband? The proposal is contrary to the provisions of the Iraqi constitution,” he told The Media Line.

“The other problem is that the law will be subject to the mood of the clerics. Does he want to divorce the wife or not?” he added.

He also said that the legalization of pleasure marriages would cause problems in Iraqi courts.

“There are women who want to cheat on their husbands, or husbands who want to cheat on their wives, so they get married temporarily for a few hours or a few days, and then the cheating begins,” he said. “The cleric who signed the marriage contract does not know whether it is cheating or not, and problems and murders occur Imagine if this matter will be legal and take place in court.”

Iraqi human rights activist Mohammed Ezz said that the amendment would be a step “thousands of years backward” for Iraq. “Maybe later we will see a law that restores slavery,” he told The Media Line.

Shiite cleric Sayed Jafar al-Mousawi defended the amendment. “Islam is what governs us,” he told The Media Line. “It’s our law.”

Al-Mousawi said that the Personal Status Law was originally legislated by “secular people who do not understand religion.”

He criticized Westerners as hypocritical for opposing child marriages when children in the West begin having sex “at an early age, maybe 12 or even 11.”

“When a woman reaches puberty and gets her period, she becomes a full woman, and she has the right to marry. And when a child reaches puberty, he has the right to marry too, so why do we refuse?” he said.

“The matter remains in the hands of the fathers.”

He also defended the Shiite legal regulations that allow pleasure marriages and forbid a woman from inheriting her husband’s estate.

“The amendment will pass,” al-Mousawi said. “Otherwise, we have other ways to pass it.”

Iraqi Sunni cleric Muawiya al-Badri harshly criticized the amendment, saying it has “nothing to do with Islam.” Now that child marriage is no longer acceptable in society, it should no longer be acceptable religiously either, he told The Media Line.

“Their problem with the law is that it took into account the Sunni opinion in 1959, and since 2003 until now they have tried to amend it several times, but they always fail,” al-Badri said of Iraqi Shiites. “The one who drafted the law saw what was most beneficial for women and society, and put it in law, but now they reject it just because it is a law according to the legitimate Sunni opinion.”

Published by HRWF: https://hrwf.eu/iraq-a-law-that-can-legalize-pedophilia-is-on-the-table/

Financial scammers detained following actions coordinated by Eurojust

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Financial scammers detained following actions coordinated by Eurojust

Romanian and Moldovan authorities worked together to uncover an organised crime group (OCG) that has subjected more than 150 victims to financial scams since 2022. By selling a non-existent investment scheme, the group was able to gain access to their victims’ bank accounts. The damages resulting from their scam are estimated at approximately EUR 3 million. Following a joint investigation, supported by Eurojust and Europol, Romanian and Moldovan authorities were able to detain 12 people on 7 August.

The OCG started their scam by posting false advertisements on the internet that promoted an investment plan that would lead to secure, quick and substantial earnings in virtual currencies. To ensure the credibility of the advertisements, pictures of well-known people, logos of banks and specialised economic publications were added.

People clicking on the advertisement were led to a fake investment platform where the victims would fill in their personal information. To obtain even more personal data, the scammers, posing as financial actors, called their victims to gain access to their bank accounts. With access to the bank accounts, the group transferred sums of money and took over the possession of the victim’s virtual currencies. Through this scam, the OCG was able to gain approximately EUR 3 million.

Investigations into the scam started after victims in Romania reached out to the authorities. This resulted in the uncovering of an organised crime group in Moldova that was responsible for the scam. Investigations continued at Eurojust, where the Romanian and Moldovan authorities set up a joint investigation team (JIT) to work together quickly and efficiently to stop the OCG.

The coordinated actions led to an action day on 7 August during which 19 house searches were conducted in Moldova and evidence such as computers, data storage units, weapons and ammunition, and documents were seized. Moldovan authorities ordered the preventive detention of 12 suspects.

Europol supported the action day by setting up a virtual command post to coordinate the operational activities, providing live cryptoanalysis and cross-checks against Europol’s databases as the data was being collected in the field.

The following authorities were involved in the actions:

  • Romania: Directorate for Investigation of Organized Crime and Terrorism – Central Structure
  • Moldova: Prosecutor’s Office for Combating Organized Crime and Special Cases

Gen Z revolution: Hasina out, Yunus in

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Gen Z revolution: Hasina out, Yunus in

By Sheikh Mohammed Belal

In Bangladesh, everything looks new after the Gen Z revolution. A new era is forming in Bangladesh after protests drove out the premier and forced her to flee the country. After 20 years in power, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has resigned and fled Bangladesh amid widespread protests, with her government’s violent crackdown on dissent killing several hundred people and fuelling public anger.

This movement showcases the power and influence of the younger generation in advocating for change and shaping the future of Bangladesh. What began as student demonstrations against job quotas quickly coalesced into a full-fledged people’s revolution leading to the dissolution of parliament and the release of opposition leaders.

Generation Z (those born from the mid-to-late 1990s to the early 2010s) made it possible to resign a government as powerful as it was. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who had been in power for 15 years and was seen as one of the most authoritarian governments in the world.

Bangladesh Gen Z revolution, August 2024. Credit Prothom Alo

The resignation of Sheikh Hasina and the subsequent formation of an interim government, with Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus at the helm, marked a turning point in Bangladesh’s political landscape.

The students’ protests were initially against the quota system that reserved 30% of civil service posts for relatives of veterans of the 1971 war of independence from Pakistan. The system was seen as discriminatory and favouring supporters of the ruling Awami League activists. 

The “Gen Z Revolution” in Bangladesh is not the first instance of youth-led movements in history, but it is one of the most significant in terms of its impact and the role of Generation Z. What sets the Bangladeshi movement apart is the demographic makeup of the protesters, with Generation Z playing a central role. This generation has grown up with technology and social media, which they’ve used effectively to organize protests and spread their message globally. It’s a powerful example of how the connectivity and digital savviness of Gen Z can lead to significant political change.

Professor Muhammad Yunus, often referred to as a “social guru,” is renowned for his pioneering work in microfinance and social business. His lifelong mission for poverty alleviation and his commitment to using business as a force for good, which resonates with many, especially among the younger generation seeking change.

He is the founder of the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for his efforts to create economic and social development from below. His philosophy centres around the belief that providing small loans to the poor can empower them to break the cycle of poverty. This approach, known as micro finance, has been influential globally, inspiring similar initiatives in various countries.

Professor Muhammad Yunus. GettyImages-535100130-1693945502

Moreover, Professor Yunus advocates for the concept of “social business” – businesses created to address social problems rather than to make profits for investors. This idea has gained traction as a sustainable way to address issues like poverty, healthcare, and education.

Before fleeing out from Bangladesh, fugitive Hasina did all she could to take away the very bank-Grameen Bank-that Professor Yunus helped establish. Once asked Muhammad Yunus, at the time, under relentless persecution by Hasina— why he didn’t just leave?

“Why continue in a country where the prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, was threatening him with prison terms while making public statements about dunking him in the Padma River to teach him a lesson? “ he responded to the Voice of America (VOA).

“What I have done in Bangladesh is my life’s work,” he said the Voice of America. “It’s made a difference to the people of Bangladesh. I cannot just walk away from the things I have done. It’s not that it’s all done and finished. If I walked away, what happens to them? They’re abandoned! And what happens to all the work?” This week, that loyalty, that devotion to his native land, finally paid off.

But as the line from the Broadway musical “Hamilton” puts it, “Winning was easy … Governing’s harder.”  After a prolonged period of autocracy, the elements and remnants of fascism are deep into the governance structure of Bangladesh.

With a population of about 170 million, Professor Yunus will have to deal with more that social business or microfinance. He needs to make significant reforms across the governance structures to  restore trust in the new government he will lead.

As he wrote recently in The Economist, “No Bangladeshi younger than 30 has ever cast a vote in an unrigged national election. Over the past 15 years the government corrupted many of our institutions, most tragically the judiciary and education system, at all levels.”

Now, in an ironic turn of events, he is going to do the jobs so that all such irregularities are reformed to restore trust of the people of Bangladesh to the government.

The world needs Yunus to succeed. Giving Bangladesh a free and democratic government could lift millions out of poverty while setting a precedence for all hard-working people for a new beginning.

Indeed, Bangladesh’s Gen Z people’s revolution will add to the curricula of universities and educational institutions as it was organised with so much of unity and coordination, even at the time when internet was off and curfew was enforced, unprecedented in the recent history.

When Premier Hasina became a fugitive, it was students who took control of the country as virtually all Hasina appointed police run away to their own safety. Students managed traffic control to guarding the houses and religious icons of the minority Hindu community. Internet is swarmed with photos where students were seen performing all kinds of work along with the members of Bangladesh Army to make the country ready for a future that they behold in their chest.

Here’s the edited disclaimer for the end of the article:

The views expressed are entirely personal and do not reflect the position of the organization or institution with which the writer is affiliated.

Hydrogen: Obligation or hype in global energy transition

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Hydrogen: Obligation or hype in global energy transition

By Hrishikesh Chinchkar, M.SC. – Researcher in Renewable Energy and Stakeholder Engagement at Kelso Institute Europe

We are living in a time of unprecedented technological advancement, making our lives increasingly comfortable. However, have you ever considered how our growing luxurious lifestyles impact the environment? Between 1970 and 2019, approximately 11072 weather, climate, and water-related disasters were reported resulting in 2.06 million deaths and $3.64 trillion in economic losses. These incidents underscore the urgent need to transition from fossil-based energy systems to renewable ones, aiming to keep the global average temperature rise well below 2°C while striving at limiting it to 1.5°C.

The adoption of the Paris Agreement and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has catalysed the global energy transition. Investment in renewables by both developed and emerging economies has significantly increased the share of renewables over the last decade. The European Union (EU) has emerged as a global leader in fostering clean energy, increasing the share of renewable sources from 16.5% in 2013 to approximately a quarter of total energy consumption in 2023.

However, decarbonizing energy-intensive industries (EIIs) is paramount to achieving the Paris Agreement goals. The steel and chemical industries, responsible for 7% and 5% of global CO2 emissions respectively, face significant challenges in decarbonisation due to the need for high process temperatures, capital-intensive and long-lived assets, significant infrastructure upgrades, and lack of conducive policies. Hydrogen has emerged as the frontrunner in decarbonising EIIs, prompting 61 countries to unveil national hydrogen strategies. Globally, 1600-1800 hydrogen projects are in development, signifying the critical role of hydrogen in transforming the energy system. Transitioning from fossil-based hydrogen to clean hydrogen offers an opportunity to save a gigatonne of global CO2 emissions annually.

Why Investment in Hydrogen is an Obligation and Opportunity, Not Hype

The global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation to address severe threats of climate change, ensure energy security, and fostering economic growth. The Russian invasion of Ukraine exposed the EU’s vulnerability due to its high dependence on fossil fuels, prompting reforms to reduce reliance on Russian gas. Similarly, many countries are formulating energy policies to lessen dependence on fossil fuels. Hydrogen has emerged as a key player in advancing the future global energy system.

Although the share of renewables is rapidly increasing in the global energy mix, certain sectors require special attention for decarbonisation. The steel and chemical industries are crucial to the global economy, providing employment to millions and serving as the backbone for many dependent industries. Currently, no mature alternative technologies exist to decarbonise these sectors. Blast furnaces are widely used for crude steel production is primarily rely on fossil fuels. Coke derived from fossil fuels, is used as a reducing agent to convert iron ore into molten iron, resulting in significant emissions. Immense research is underway to use renewable hydrogen as a substitute for coke in blast furnaces. The Swedish company H2 Green Steel has demonstrated that using hydrogen can reduce emissions by up to 95% compared to traditional blast furnace technology. Refurbishing existing blast furnaces to inject hydrogen offers significant potential to reduce process emissions. For instance, producing one tonne of hot rolled coil emits 1850 kg of CO2 via the traditional route while the hydrogen-based route emits only 196 kg of CO2.

Similarly, using renewable hydrogen to produce ammonia has the potential to save approximately 2-2.5 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of ammonia produced. The Haber-Bosch process is widely used for ammonia synthesis and primarily relies on hydrogen derived from natural gas, coal, and oil responsible for significant GHG emissions. Various processes, such as electrolysis powered by renewables, biomass-derived hydrogen, biological hydrogen production, and nuclear-powered electrolysis, offer alternatives to produce green or low-carbon ammonia. Therefore, low-carbon or green hydrogen presents immense potential to decarbonise EIIs.

Additionally, renewable energy sources depend on natural resources like solar insolation, wind speed, and biomass. Hydrogen offers numerous opportunities, such as storing excess electricity produced from renewables, facilitating sector integration, and optimizing the grid. The rising share of renewables makes the existing grid infrastructure vulnerable to surplus generation. Moreover, substantial investment and digitalization are required to optimize renewable energy consumption. Hydrogen plays a crucial role in optimizing renewable energy use and prolonging investment in upgrading the grid infrastructure.

Key Risks and Challenges in Clean Hydrogen Investment

Despite the promising potential, clean hydrogen projects face significant risks and challenges, particularly in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs). Key deterrents for public and private financial institutions include:

  1. Uncertain Market Demand: The lack of credible off-takers and price volatility creates uncertainty deterring investment.
  2. High Cost of Finance: Political risks and market uncertainties elevate the cost of finance, making projects less attractive.
  3. Infrastructure and Technology Risks: Significant investment is required for infrastructure development and technology adoption adding to financial risk.

Economic and Risk Mitigation Instruments

To mobilize private capital and help projects achieve Final Investment Decision (FID), several economic and risk mitigation instruments should be developed:

  1. Off-take Guarantees: Ensuring demand by guaranteeing purchase agreements.
  2. Political Risk Insurance: Protecting investments against political instability.
  3. Technology Performance Guarantees: Assuring investors of the reliability and efficiency of new technologies.
  4. Foreign Currency Guarantees: Mitigating risks associated with currency fluctuations.

Governments, international financial institutions, and insurance companies like Swiss Re are well-positioned to develop and implement these instruments.

Supporting International Financing Initiatives

Governments and International Finance Institutions (IFIs) can support the coordination of international financing initiatives for clean hydrogen by:

  1. Creating Joint Financing Partnerships: Collaborating with multiple stakeholders to pool resources and share risks.
  2. Establishing Multi-Stakeholder Platforms: Facilitating transparent interactions and harmonizing processes among various actors.
  3. Standardizing Contracts: Streamlining transactions and creating governance accountability to spur market growth.

Conclusion

The rising threat of climate change, increasing energy demand, geopolitical conflicts, and pressure to meet decarbonisation goals have prompted countries to adopt sustainable energy policies. Hydrogen is seen as a prominent alternative for the global energy transition. The enthusiasm for hydrogen in the global energy market is justified in many ways. However, issues surrounding the exploitation of resources required for hydrogen technologies, such as the displacement of indigenous communities and energy colonialism, need to be addressed to ensure a just transition. Additionally, the massive investment required to facilitate hydrogen transport and storage presents a challenge.

Hydrogen is not just an obligation but an opportunity to meet climate targets and ensure energy security in the face of growing geopolitical conflicts. It is a critical component in the global energy transition, with the potential to revolutionize the energy landscape and contribute significantly to a sustainable future.

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Zelenskyy’s three perils

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Zelenskyy’s three perils

By Sazzad Haider

This month, the Ukraine crisis has taken a new turn. As usual, every day Ukraine is constantly losing ground and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is begging the West for more weapons. And he is assuring his people that Russia will soon be defeated.

Three events this month could have major implications for the war in Ukraine.

The first event was, in the British general election the defeat of Rishi Sunak, one of the mastermind of the Ukraine war. But the election results of UK election is not a big concern for President Zelenskyy. The Labor Party promised him long ago as saying: “if there is a change of government after the election, there will be no change in Britain’s resolve to stand with Ukraine, confront Russian aggression and pursue [Russian President Vladimir] Putin for his war crimes.”

However the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer may not be as generous as Sunak in helping Ukraine.

While Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is not too much worried about the results of the British elections, the upcoming US elections have enough reasons for him to worry about. Republican candidate Donald Trump is likely to win the November election.

Trump said that he could end the Ukraine war ‘within 24 hours’ if he won the November elections. According to U.S. media Trump would shift the U.S. position on Ukraine. Moreover, he will create a two-tier NATO system; only members who met the 2 percent spending threshold would get the “security guarantee of the U.S.

Vladimir Putin responded with great enthusiasm for trump’s desire to stop war. Putin said that he took Trump’s words seriously. While Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reacted with shock and dismay to the remarks of Trump. “If Trump knows how to finish this war, he should tell us today,” Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy  said.

In his previous tenure as US President, Donald Trump was the pathfinder of 21-century’s American Isolationist policy as he adopted his “America First” agenda to retreat from a leading contributor to its traditional allies. He raised the question of the existence of NATO and pushed the alliance to the verge of break up.

He pulled out from the Paris climate treaty, the Iranian nuclear deal and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. He also reduced the US’ global responsibilities in the UNESCO, the United Nations Human Rights Council and the World Health Organization.  Significantly, he began a large repatriation of U.S. soldiers from Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.  

In October 2019, Trump launched a drive to withdraw the US troops from northern Syria.  Trump also restrained from the opportunity to oust Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.  In his tenure, former US President Donald Trump also avoided further direct war. 

If Trump is elected he would convince Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to sign a peace treaty with Russia. Ukraine does not have the ability to continue a one-hour war with Russia without the US support. There is no doubt that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will have to make a huge concession for this. The concession that the late Statesman Henry Kissinger had spoken of at the beginning of the war.

In 2022, Former U.S. secretary of state Henry A. Kissinger said at a conference at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia to help end the invasion as a vast majority of Ukrainians are against the war. He also urged the United States and the West to not seek an embarrassing defeat for Russia in Ukraine, warning it could worsen Europe’s long-term stability.

One of the goals of the Ukraine war was to strengthen the security of NATO countries by defeating Russia and expanding NATO. But after two years of war and not being able to defeat Putin, the whole of Europe is now suffering from depression. Apart from military and economic support to Ukraine, the burden of Ukrainian refugees has exhausted Europe. This has created a division between NATO countries. The latest Moscow visit of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin has unearthed the NATO division.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen criticized Orban’s Moscow visit, termed “appeasement will not stop” Putin. Now we have to wait and see, what kind of measures NATO will take against the Hungarian Prime Minister in the wake of this unexpected visit.

Without a doubt, a cease-fire without the recovery of all Ukrainian territory would be a failure of NATO and in the future no country would step into NATO’s fold like Ukraine. On the other hand, if Trump wins the US election, it will be seen how effective NATO will be.

At this moment there is no chance of stopping the war in Ukraine. Because Putin will not give back the won land of Ukraine in any order. On the other hand, it is not possible for Zelenskyy to sign a peace agreement without recovering the occupied territories. But if Trump wins, or if the U.S. wants to, peace is possible at a moment’s notice. Because the United States has many examples of running away leaving its best allies in danger. In the last century, this kind of incident happened in Vietnam or Iran and recently in Afghanistan. So no matter what the mouth says, it is clear that President Zelenskyy is in great danger.

Eurasian dimensions of Belarus’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

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Eurasian dimensions of Belarus’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

At the summit held on 3-4 July 2024 in the Kazakh capital, Astana, the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) signed the “Astana Declaration,” formally approving Belarus’s accession to the organisation as its tenth member state.

Belarus’s membership in this organisation holds a strategic geopolitical dimension, as the country borders three EU member states, as well as Russia to the east and northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. This summit marked the inaugural meeting in the “SCO Plus” format, which includes 10 member states and 14 dialogue partner states. Dialogue partner status has been available since 2008. Guest participants at the summit included the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the United Nations, and Turkmenistan.

The SCO is the successor of the Shanghai Five, established in 1996 by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan in response to security threats posed by terrorism and separatism in Central Asia. These concerns intensified, particularly following the US military intervention in Afghanistan. In its foreign policy, the organisation adheres to the principles of non-alignment, cooperation with other countries and regions, and openness to the outside world. The organisation has since evolved into the largest and most populous comprehensive regional organisation in the world in terms of geographical scope and population size, covering approximately 80% of Eurasia and 40% of the global population. As of 2023, its aggregated GDP accounted for about 32% of the global total GDP[2]. Turkey, a NATO member, holds dialogue partner status alongside other states that belong to the Western economic and military structure, such as Egypt, Israel, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain.

The advantages of Belarus’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

Belarus’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is significant from several perspectives. Initially established as a regional organisation of Asia-Pacific countries, the SCO has now expanded to include a Euro-Asian dimension with Belarus’s inclusion. For Belarus, joining the SCO marks a notable shift in Minsk’s official foreign policy towards the East. This transformation began four years ago, particularly after the turbulent opposition demonstrations following the elections, in which the West attempted to interfere with the results to overthrow President Alexander Lukashenko‘s government. It became clear that the previous multilateral approach, which relied on balancing relations with both the West and Russia, was futile. This approach failed to provide external security for Belarus, instead making the country more vulnerable to external threats and placing it in a precarious position and vacuum between major powers, as it was not institutionally aligned with either side. Belarus has identified key priorities for its SCO membership, aiming to develop economic cooperation with the East and aspiring to act as a bridge connecting the SCO with the European Union.

In line with the “Astana Declaration,” Belarus places importance on and is committed to fostering a more representative, equitable, and pluralistic global order. It believes that cooperation within the SCO can serve as a foundation for a more equitable and balanced security structure in Eurasia and globally while upholding principles of peaceful dispute resolution, non-use of force, and non-interference in the internal affairs of states. The declaration also underscores the necessity of respecting each state’s right to independently choose its form of internal governance and development paths.

Belarus’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation further underscores its distinct political trajectory compared to its post-Soviet neighbours — Poland, the Baltic states, and Ukraine—where the trend towards integration into Euro-Atlantic structures has been accompanied by increasing Russophobia and populist rhetoric. This trend has often proved more detrimental than beneficial to Western interests.

In the early 1990s, it seemed that Belarus was poised to follow a similarly perilous path. Why did this not happen? The reason lies in the fact that Russophobia based on local ethnic nationalism was not as deeply ingrained in Belarusian society as it was in the Baltic states and Ukraine. This allowed Belarus to engage with its Western and Eastern neighbours in a more measured and pragmatic manner, free from ideological constraints and stereotypes.

Western analysts approach the expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) into Belarus with scepticism, often characterising it as a Chinese geopolitical initiative aimed at countering both Russia and the EU and viewing it as a potential manifestation of Chinese hegemony. However, the SCO includes countries like India, which are geopolitical rivals of China and have frequent border disputes. This illustrates that the SCO operates within a multilateral framework designed to coordinate the sometimes conflicting interests of major Eurasian actors. This is evidenced by Turkey’s participation in a recent summit, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in attendance, reflecting Ankara’s desire, as a NATO member, to upgrade its status from a dialogue partner to a full member of the SCO. This move is part of Turkey’s broader strategy to enhance its relations with both the West and, simultaneously, with Russia and China. Turkey acts as a bridge connecting the SCO with the EU, while Belarus represents the final station and gateway to Western Europe. The participation of UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the Astana summit reflects the UN’s ambition to position itself as an inclusive organisation that engages with all major international actors.

Belarus has substantial economic interests in cooperating with SCO countries, especially China, to leverage Chinese railway routes for accessing existing trade ports and establishing new trade routes between Europe and the East. As a landlocked country, Belarus has no choice but to strengthen its involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (B&R). Rail and road transport have historically been vital for Belarusian exports, but their importance has drastically declined since Belarus lost access to the Baltic and Ukrainian ports due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Eurasia as the epicentre of future geopolitical conflict

Belarus’s accession to the SCO as a full member is seen as a move with significant political and security implications, especially amidst the intensifying confrontation between the West and Russia in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. This development aligns with the organisation’s aspirations to become a power centre that serves as a counterbalance to Western institutions, particularly NATO. However, internal disagreements and a lack of consensus among member states could constrain these ambitions and undermine the organisation’s effectiveness and regional importance. The primary challenge lies in the struggle for influence, particularly between China and Russia. China seeks to advance its commercial interests through the Belt and Road Initiative and the Central Corridor project (TUTIT), which extends from China through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan in Central Asia, reaching the Caspian Sea and extending to Europe via Turkish railways and ports.

The decline in freight traffic by the Belarusian State Railway Company (BCh) from January to September 2024 is attributed to Belarus’s pivot towards utilizing Chinese land routes for its imports and exports. This shift may help Belarus generate additional revenue through parallel channels.

Analysts suggest that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) remains a major global player with increasing regional and international significance, despite uncertainties about its future direction and nature. The question remains whether the SCO will evolve into an anti-Western and effectively adversarial platform or whether it will succeed in establishing itself as a viable economic and security alliance alongside NATO. Such ambitions depend on the organisation’s ability to achieve internal coordination and prevent disputes from escalating in ways that could undermine its future and cohesion.

Chinese military exercises in Belarus

China and Belarus recently completed a joint military exercise held from July 8 to 19, 2024, near the Belarusian city of Brest, just five kilometres from the border with Poland, a NATO member. The manoeuvres, named “Eagle Assault,” lasted 11 days and took place just before the NATO leaders’ summit in Washington from July 9 to 11, 2024. Belarus has characterized these military exercises as a response to the “aggressive foreign policy of the West towards Belarus” and to “Ukrainian provocations.”[3]

The Chinese Ministry of Defense stated that the exercises aimed to enhance the training and coordination capabilities of the participating military forces, as well as to deepen practical cooperation between the two countries’ armed forces. A delegation from the Chinese Central Military Commission also held talks in Minsk, where both sides discussed the prospects for Belarusian-Chinese military training cooperation and agreed on new areas of collaboration. This latest demonstration of their security and defence capabilities and partnership comes just days after Belarus acceded to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which is supported by both Beijing and Moscow.

Belarusian-Chinese military exercises demonstrate that President Lukashenko is pursuing a multilateral policy and is not merely a satellite of Moscow, as he is often portrayed within the EU. It is premature to discuss a division of influence between Russia and China within Belarus, which maintains a high degree of sovereignty and will seek to further strengthen it. This includes diversifying its foreign relations with major players such as the United States and the European Union, in addition to China and Russia.

EU policy towards Belarus

Belarus is one of the few European countries that has not sought membership in the European Union, nor has the EU extended an offer of membership to Minsk.

The European Economic Community (EEC) recognised Belarus’s independence in 1991, and Belarus has signed several bilateral and multilateral agreements with the EU. In 1995, Belarus and the EU signed a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, but this agreement was never ratified by the EU. Belarus is a member of the EU’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences[4] for trade relations and is also part of the EU’s Eastern Partnership[5]. Relations between Belarus and the EU began to deteriorate after Alexander Lukashenko was elected President in 1994, and Belarus was excluded from the European Neighbourhood Policy in response to the establishment of an authoritarian regime under Lukashenko.

There have been periods of improved relations between Belarus and the EU. In 2015, the EU suspended most sanctions against Belarusian officials. In 2016, the travel ban imposed on Lukashenko in 2000 was lifted. That same year, two opposition candidates were elected to the Belarusian parliament[6], and the death penalty was suspended. These developments were seen by some EU officials as steps towards democratisation. However, certain power centres and lobbying groups have pursued a different path, focusing on destabilising the country.

Relations between Belarus and the EU reached their lowest point following opposition protests held after the presidential elections in August 2020. The EU imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials responsible for “violence and election fraud.”[7]

Historical experience has likely played a role in shaping the EU’s stance, particularly due to the negative attitudes of the Baltic EU member states towards Belarus. The transition of the Baltic states from being part of the Soviet Union (USSR) to full EU and NATO membership has transformed their historical grievances into frustrations regarding their shared Soviet past. This aspect has, in many instances, negatively affected EU-Belarus relations.

The EU should formulate its policy based on a positive, cooperative approach that encourages rather than deters engagement, leaving no room for historical grievances, regardless of their origins.

Analysts argue that the EU needs to adopt a more balanced, substantive, and cautious policy towards Belarus, avoiding the influence of unilateral interests from neighbouring countries, primarily Poland and the Baltic states, which have historical grievances and their own bilateral interests and disputes. It is already evident that some neighbouring countries have exploited their EU membership to place Belarusian individuals and companies on the EU’s “blacklist,” largely driven by their own unilateral interests and subjective perceptions.

U.S. policy towards Belarus

The United States recognized the independence of the Republic of Belarus in 1991, and on 28 December 1991, Belarus and the United States established diplomatic relations.

The United States encouraged Belarus to conclude an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and adhere to the agreed-upon measures within the framework of macroeconomic stabilization programs and other reforms, including the commitment to accelerate the privatization process to create a more favourable business and investment climate. Although there were some direct U.S. private investments in Belarus, their scale did not expand significantly due to the slow pace of reforms.

The golden period in the normalisation of relations with the U.S. occurred following the visit of U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton to Minsk on 29 August 2019. During this visit, Bolton met with Lukashenko to discuss improving relations between the two countries. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also visited Belarus for the first time in 26 years to offer American assistance following Russia’s decision to halt energy supplies to Belarus[8]. The U.S. State Department described the purpose of the visit as an effort to reaffirm the United States’ commitment to Belarus’s sovereignty, independence, stability, and prosperity, and demonstrate a desire to normalise bilateral relations.

President Donald Trump, in line with his foreign policy doctrine, faced criticism from major media outlets both in the U.S. and internationally. Nine days after the outbreak of unrest following the elections in Belarus, he coldly remarked, “I like seeing democracy,” adding, “‘Democracy’ is a very important word. It doesn’t seem like it’s too much democracy there, in Belarus.” He noted that the protests were “peaceful,” without addressing the violence that occurred after the elections, and added, “I support democracy.” To conclude any further discussion, he stated, “Okay, any other question?”[9]

“America First” is the foreign policy doctrine promoted and adopted by Donald Trump during his first presidential term (2017-2021). This doctrine emphasizes prioritizing American interests in international affairs, even if it contradicts the principles of multilateral cooperation traditionally upheld by U.S. diplomacy. If Trump is re-elected as President, a key question is how his policies might affect transatlantic relations between the United States and Europe.

By selecting James David Vance as his vice-presidential candidate, Donald Trump sent a clear signal to the world that the United States would shift towards isolationism. Vance has limited experience in foreign policy. In an interview with right-wing journalist and political consultant Steve Bannon, Vance stated, “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” He is one of the most vocal critics of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, urging Kyiv to halt military operations and urgently negotiate with Putin while dismissing the feasibility of restoring Ukraine’s pre-war borders. His doctrine is clear: “Ukraine must accept the results of the war with Russia without U.S. support.”[10]

Trump’s potential re-election could alter how the United States perceives issues related to the European Union, including the conflict in Ukraine and certainly in relations with Belarus.

Could Belarus play a key role in peace efforts in Ukraine?

Re-elected European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (EPP/CDU) addressed the European Parliament, stating: “Europe cannot control dictators and demagogues around the world, but we can decide to protect our own democracy. Europe cannot decide elections across the globe, but we can decide to invest in the security and defence of our continent. Europe cannot stop change, but we can choose to embrace it by investing in a new era of prosperity and improving our quality of life.[11]” In doing so, Von der Leyen indirectly acknowledged the mistake made in 2020 when the EU directly intervened in the Belarusian presidential election by supporting opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and imposing sanctions on Belarus. This action isolated Belarus at a time when it might have been closest to the EU and pushed it into Russia’s embrace.

Analysts believe that the EU should avoid repeating past mistakes regarding Belarus and should return to the level of engagement it had after the signing of the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements. The EU needs to leverage Belarus’s role to achieve a viable peace solution for Ukraine, as peace will not materialize on its own without significant effort and activity. The withdrawal of Belarusian forces from the Ukrainian border is seen as a positive signal, indicating readiness to initiate negotiations between the warring parties with the involvement of the international community. As an organization initially founded as a peace project, the EU should not abandon its commitment to peace. It must ensure that Ukrainian neighbours, who may have their own particular interests and even candid aspirations towards Ukraine and Belarus, are excluded from the peace process. Tsikhanouskaya, as a product of both the EU and Belarusian neighbour’s interference, underscores this issue. Peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved unless the actors on the other side of the front lines demonstrate genuine interest. This time, the message coming through Belarus and Minsk could be a crucial step in that direction. The upcoming U.S. presidential elections should provide additional impetus for reaching a peace solution for Ukraine.

Published by IFIMES Ljubljana/Bruxelles/Washington/Minsk, 26 July 2024           

Footnotes:
[1]  IFIMES – International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives.”

[2] The International Monetary Fund (IMF): World Economic Outlook database: April 2024, link: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/

[3] China and Belarus hold joint drills near Polish border ahead of NATO summit, link: www.politico.eu/article/china-bealrus-polish-border-nato-summit-drill-ukraine-russia-war-defense-aggression-fight-ministry/

[4] The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) is a preferential tariff system that allows for reduced tariffs on various products. The concept of GSP differs significantly from the “Most-Favored-Nation” (MFN) principle. Available at: https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/belarus_en 

[5] The Eastern Partnership (EaP) is a joint initiative of the European Union, its member states, and six Eastern European countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Available at: www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/eap_factsheet_belarus_eng.pdf 

[6] Anna Konopatskaya, of the United Civic party, won a district in Minsk, and Yelena Anisim, of the Belarusian Language Society, also won a seat. Available at: www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/12/belarus-activists-unmoved-election-two-opposition-mps-lukashenko

[7] EU announces sanctions against Belarus over ‘violence’ on protesters and electoral ‘falsification’. Available at: www.euronews.com/2020/08/14/eu-announces-sanctions-against-belarus-over-violence-on-protesters-and-electoral-falsifica

[8] Pompeo says US can supply Belarus with 100% of oil, gas. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/863371d1353f29fb38b27fe0e5027b8e

[9] Opinion  Trump’s strange silence on Belarus. Available at: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trumps-strange-silence-on-belarus/2020/08/21/698cf4f0-e3d1-11ea-8dd2-d07812bf00f7_story.html

[10] Trump’s choice of Vance ‘terrible news’ for Ukraine. Available at: www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/17/trump-jd-vance-vp-ukraine

[11] Statement at the European Parliament Plenary by President Ursula von der Leyen, candidate for a second mandate 2024-2029, Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_24_3871

Hindutva and Zionism: A Marriage of Convenience

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Hindutva and Zionism: A Marriage of Convenience

By Fatima Saleem

The resurgence of fascism in global politics has led to an uptick in incidents of ultra-nationalism, racism, Islamophobia and intolerance. Both; Zionism and Hindutva are premised on similar beliefs and are deeply embedded in the teachings of ethno-nationalist far-right. The two have joined hands to form an ideological bond having direct implications for domestic, regional and global politics.

According to orthodox Jewish traditions, Jews are forbidden from forming a state of their own until the arrival of their Messiah, and doing otherwise is considered blasphemous. But this has not stopped the Zionists from pursuing their agenda. Historically, Zionism emerged in 1897 as a result of political developments in Eastern Europe where Jews were facing mass persecution. Its founder Theodor Herzl, advocated for the formation of a separate Jewish state in Palestine. The Jerusalem program is the guiding principle of Zionism and broadly aims to promote the unity of the Jewish people, ensure the centrality of the State of Israel and Jerusalem, promote Jewish migration (Aliyah) to Israel and ensure integration of immigrants, strengthen Israel as a Zionist state, fight anti-Semitism and make the country an expression of practical Zionism.

The program was first adopted in 1951 and has undergone multiple revisions. The left-wing Zionists are more secular while the right-wing Zionists promote a government centered on Jewish religious traditions. According to Henry Kissinger, Israel never had a foreign policy, only domestic politics. If this is to be believed then its actions are an extension of its domestic Zionist agenda.  Promoting illegal settlements, restricting access to Al-Aqsa Mosque, declaring Jerusalem as its unequivocal capital, the ongoing Israel-Gaza war and calling Palestinians “animals” are some of the practical manifestations of it.  

Hindutva is the ideology of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and is heavily influenced by Mussolini’s Italy, the rise of Nazism and the third Reich in Germany. The term was first coined by V.D. Savarkar in 1923 and promotes Hindu nationalism and supremacy. Savarkar’s work, ‘The Essentials of Hindutva’, promotes a Hindu majoritarian state, the “Hindu Rashtra” for the protection of its “cultural citizenship”. Unlike Islam and Christianity; Jainism, Buddhism and Sikhism find their origins in India. Premised on this, Savarkar termed these religions as variations of Hinduism while completely rejecting the Abrahamic texts. This has been a decisive factor in today’s ongoing religious tensions in India. 

The amendments to India’s Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) 2019, the abrogation of articles 370 and 35a in the state of Jammu and Kashmir and increased incidents of mob lynching against minorities are some of the practical examples of Hindutva ideology.

Premised on hyper-nationalistic beliefs, both ideologies of Zionism and Hindutva hold astounding similarities. India and Israel are ruled by ethno-racially driven regimes, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the coalition of right-wing Likud party and Religious Zionism respectively. Aiming to keep their lands racially pure, Hindutva propagates the creation of a Hindu Rashtra and Akhand Bharat while Zionists strive to create a Greater Israel.

Both ideologies have a legacy of colonisation and are actively engaged in genocidal practices. Proponents of the two ideologies are engaged in distorting history. The desecration of religious sites in India and Israel has also become a common occurrence. According to a report of the People’s Union for Human Rights, in Gujarat alone, 500 mosques and shrines have been demolished to date.

Historically, India-Israel ties were never strong. After independence, India supported the cause of Palestine. However, in a bid to develop stronger ties with the US, in 1992, India established formal diplomatic relations with Israel. With time, relations have grown stronger and now encompass: economic, political, military, and cultural domains.

In the contemporary geopolitical scenario where India and Israel both act as net security providers for their respective regions, it is convenient for them to also have similar political ideologies. The growing Indo-Israel nexus can also be explained in the larger context of the US-China rivalry where India’s status as the US’ strategic partner has further augmented New Delhi-Tel Aviv relations. The deepening bond can further be explained by India’s ambition to obtain regional dominance for which it is actively pursuing a policy to remain close to countries having advanced military and technological capabilities.

Currently, India is Israel’s largest buyer of military equipment and its second-largest trade partner in Asia. Ties have been further strengthened by cooperation in cybersecurity, the energy sector, air transport agreements, film co-production and investment MoUs.

Amidst the current Israel-Palestine conflict in Gaza, thousands of Indian labourers have migrated to Israel in a bid to replace Palestinians. Israel is also actively assisting the Indian army in Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir through information sharing, providing surveillance softwares and supplying weapons.

As Indo-Israel relation grows, the Hindutva Bhakts continue to hold Zionists in high esteem. This unholy alliance poses a dire threat to the values of multiculturalism and peaceful co-existence. The mastermind of the Norway 2011 attack, Anders Behring Breivik who killed 69 individuals released a manifesto “A European Declaration of Independence” in which he glorified the Hindutva ideology. This is a dangerous precedence and shows that these fascist ideologies are influencing individuals.  

As the sphere of influence of Zionism and Hindutva expands, the world silently watches them carry out gross human rights violations in Gaza and Kashmir, respectively. It has therefore become incumbent upon the international community to hold these fascist governments to account before it gets too late.

To contact the writer Fatima Saleem, Email: fatimasaleemraza@gmail.com

Digital sovereignty for Africa?

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Digital sovereignty for Africa?

By Dr. Jovan Kurbalia 

Africa today is at yet another pivotal moment in its history (in series of many in its pre-modern and modern times). If the continent fails to navigate the AI transition correctly, the technological gap between Africa and the rest of the world may (irreversibly) widen. Therefore, the collaborative Programs like this one (Certified Economic Diplomat, developed by the Ghana’s IEF Institute together with its European think-tank, academic, media and inter-cultural partners) matters so much. Spotifying the challenge is a half way to its solution.   

The current situation is not promising. Africa’s data is stored abroad. For example, the whole continent has fewer data farms than the Netherlands. Knowledge about Africa is also shaped beyond the continent, with, for example, less than 2% of Wikipedia editors coming from the continent. The modern AI system must reflect Africa’s wisdom gathered over centuries. The continent needs urgent action to safeguard and promote its data, knowledge, and wisdom for the AI era as part of the common cultural and knowledge heritage.

Data dilemma

Africa’s data infrastructure needs to be more developed. The entire continent has fewer data farms than the Netherlands, a stark indicator of the digital divide. This lack of infrastructure forces African countries to store their data abroad, traditionally in Europe and North America, and increasingly in China. This practice raises significant security and privacy concerns and limits Africa’s ability to leverage its data for economic growth and innovation.

Data localisation, the practice of managing data on a national level, is gaining traction globally. African countries can use data to foster local innovation and economic growth by investing in local data centres and data localisation policies.

Knowledge gap

The digital knowledge divide is another critical issue. Less than 2% of Wikipedia editors are from Africa, significantly underrepresenting African perspectives and knowledge. This disparity not only skews the global narrative but also deprives future generations of a comprehensive understanding of Africa’s rich history and culture.

African governments and institutions must actively encourage and support local content creation to bridge this knowledge gap. Initiatives like training programs for Wikipedia editors, grants for digital content creators, and partnerships with global tech companies can help amplify African voices in the digital space. Additionally, integrating digital literacy into the education system will empower the next generation to contribute to and shape the global knowledge economy.

Africa’s wisdom

Africa’s wisdom, deeply rooted in oral traditions and cultural practices, is at risk of being overlooked in the AI era. AI systems, predominantly developed in the West, often fail to reflect African cultures and values. This oversight can lead to biased and culturally insensitive AI applications, further marginalizing the African continent.

By incorporating traditional values such as Ubuntu into AI developments, Africa can ensure that AI platforms and systems reflect the continent’s cultural values, including the high relevance of communal values.

Actionable steps for Africa

Invest in data infrastructure: African governments must prioritize the development of local data centres and cloud services. Public-private partnerships can be crucial in mobilizing the necessary resources and expertise.

Enact data localisation policies: Implementing data localisation laws can ensure that sensitive data remains within national borders, enhancing security and fostering local innovation.

Promote local content creation: Governments and institutions should support initiatives encouraging local content creation, such as training programs, grants, and partnerships with global tech companies.

Integrate AI and digital literacy into education: By incorporating digital literacy into the education system, Africa can empower the next generation to contribute to the global knowledge economy.

Incorporate traditional wisdom such as Ubuntu ethics into AI Governance: African nations should actively participate in global AI governance forums and advocate for including Ubuntu ethics in AI development.

Future developments

Africa stands at a crossroads in the digital age. The continent’s young population and significant potential for digital and societal development hold a promising digital future. Africa can secure its digital interests and preserve its rich cultural heritage for future generations by taking proactive steps to safeguard its data, knowledge, and wisdom.

The time to act is now. Africa must invest in data infrastructure, promote local content creation, and incorporate its unique cultural values into AI governance. Only then can it truly harness the power of the digital revolution and shape its own digital destiny.

About author

Jovan Kurbalija is the Founding Director of the DiploFoundation and Head of the Geneva Internet Platform. He previously served as Executive Director of the UN High-Level Panel on Digital Cooperation (2018-2019). Kurbalija has been lecturing at many universities worldwide, including the College of Europe, where he is a visiting professor.

Kurbalija has been a leading expert on the impact of AI and digitalisation on diplomacy and modern society. His book ‘Introduction to Internet Governance’, translated into 11 languages, is a textbook at many universities worldwide.

Kurbalija has led digital capacity development for Africa over the last 3 decades involving thousands of tech experts, diplomats, and business people. In 2022, he co-authored the landmark study on Africa’s digital diplomacy: ‘Stronger digital voices from Africa: Building African digital foreign policy and diplomacy’.

Leonardo’s Faces – Rachel Jones

Diplomat Magazine
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Leonardo’s Faces – Rachel Jones

The Leonardo Royal Hotel Den Haag Promenade is represented by both new and more experienced employees working together with passion as one team, to deliver great service and to depict the hotel’s values. In these monthly written pieces, there is a focus on their values and their approach to our international clients. This year’s focus is on the new events concept ‘Now We’re Talking’. It revolves around creating on-going conversations and a spark amongst attendees. It offers endless possibilities to get inspired and connected, with instant personal communication before, during and after your event. Therefore, we would also like to share some background information about the employees with you. Allow us to introduce you to Rachel Jones

  • Nationality: Dutch
  • Function: Guest Experience Agent
  • Department: Front Office

Introduction

When did you start working at the Promenade Hotel?

I began as a General Manager Trainee in February 2023, and I was fortunate to receive a wonderful opportunity to transition into a new role as a Guest Experience Agent.

What was your first impression of the Promenade Hotel?

I was immediately impressed. The interior design is chic and sophisticated creating a welcoming and luxurious atmosphere. Additionally, everyone I encountered upon entering the hotel was friendly and kind, making me feel right at home from the very start.

What makes the Promenade Hotel suitable for welcoming people from all around the world?

The Promenade Hotel is highly suitable for welcoming people from all around the world due to its incredible diversity and inclusive environment. With over 19 nationalities represented among our staff, we offer a rich and welcoming atmosphere that resonates with international guests. Our location is near many embassies, which frequently host events at our hotel. This further enhances our global appeal.

Additionally, our LEO’s International Flavors restaurant showcases a variety of international flavors, offering diverse dishes to cater to the guests from all over the world. A unique concept of our restaurant is that our chef, Sido de Brabander, encourages his team to create dishes from their home countries. This approach not only enriches our menu but also ensures we bring international and authentic flavours to the table, reinforcing our commitment to diversity and inclusion.

Overall, our hotel its diverse staff, strategic location, and international culinary offerings make it an ideal destination for guests from every corner of the globe.

Which diplomatic event has been most memorable for you, so far, at the Promenade Hotel?

My favourite event was the Food Festival by Bosnia. I particularly enjoyed it because I was actively involved, assisting the Food & Beverage team that night. I had the opportunity to taste a variety of delicious dishes that I had never tried before, which was a highlight for me. The atmosphere was lovely, enhanced by live violin and piano performances, making the experience even more special. The preparation for the event was seamless, and every department in our hotel played a role, whether big or small. That night, we hosted over 90 guests, and it was a complete success.

What international aspects do you see reflected along your daily duties and the work environment?

As a front office Guest Experience Agent, I frequently interact with guests from all over the world. This interaction provides a unique opportunity to understand and cater to diverse cultural preferences and expectations.

For instance, we celebrate and incorporate special international occasions, such as Italian Pasta Day, where our Italian colleague cooks pasta for our staff meal, or us at the Front Office serve Glühwein during the Christmas season for our guests. This attention to cultural details ensures that both our colleagues and guests feel welcomed and appreciated.

By embracing these international aspects, we create a rich and inclusive atmosphere that enhances the overall guest experience and fosters a sense of community among our staff.

NOW WE’RE TALKING!

The core values of the new concept are fun, surprising, genuine and connect.

Using your own words, how would you describe the new events concept?

I like the “Now We Are Talking” event concept. It allows us and the guests who have their events at our hotel to interact more with one another. This approach not only improves the guest experience, but it also promotes a feeling of community and engagement, making each event genuine memorable.

What do you find the most exciting or fun part of your current role within the Promenade hotel?

What I find most exciting and fun about my current role at the Promenade Hotel is the opportunity to genuinely connect with our guests. While making guests happy is a common goal in hospitality, for me, it is more than just a job—it is a passion. I have been doing this since I was 17 years old.

When I am surrounded by guests, engaging with them, offering tips for local restaurants, providing directions, or assisting them in any way, I feel truly fulfilled. I live and breathe hospitality, and there is nothing I enjoy more than ensuring our guests have a memorable experience. Forming personal bonds with them is incredibly rewarding; I strive to make sure they remember me, just as I remember them.

I also love when I hear an accent and can immediately identify that they speak Spanish or Papiamento. Switching to their language and having a fun, engaging conversation adds a personal touch to their stay. This ability to connect with guests on a deeper level through language makes my role even more enjoyable and fulfilling.

When was the last time someone surprised you or when you surprised someone?

The last time I surprised someone was for Father’s Day. My dad and brother live on the island of Aruba, and I arranged a spa treatment and a catamaran boat ride for him and my brother. I was so jealous when they sent me the pictures! Can you imagine being on a big catamaran, having cocktails, and just enjoying life? I am confident they had a fantastic time that day.

What is something about which you can always be genuinely passionate or enthusiastic?

My first job at the age of 17 was as a hotel guest concierge in five-star hotels at the Hyatt Regency, Marriot’s, and Hilton. One of my responsibilities was recommending restaurants to guests, and as a result, restaurants often invited my team and me to dine complimentary. This experience fuelled my passion for restaurants and food, making me a true foodie!

I can truly appreciate high quality service, and I love trying new dishes as well as reviewing them. I am definitely the type who will leave a detailed review for a restaurant with pictures on Google. In fact, I think I have visited over 150 restaurants in my life!

Connect with us! What is a piece of advice you would like to share with us?

My advice is simple: no matter your age, it is never too late to start something new. Whether it is a new life, a new job, a new environment, or even moving to a new country, just go for it! Embrace the change and seize the opportunities.

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