Black Swan season

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.By John Dunkelgrün

My friends and family call me an eternal optimist. Some even call me dangerously optimistic. While I don’t agree with the latter classification, I know I’ve been optimistic all my life. It has helped me get through very difficult situations and especially in the last few years with the growth of my modest investment portfolio.

However, recently I have been feeling uneasy about the world economy in general and the markets in particular. What worries me is not the longest expansion of the world economy ever, nor the oldest bull market on record. It is more the result of the following pebbles in my shoes that urge me to tread carefully:

  • The unpredictability of President Trump’s policies. There is a real chance that a moment will come when he will be impeached and/or sent to jail. That would give the markets a big negative shock.
  • The United States are building an unbearable mountain of debt. Chickens will eventually come home to ro.
  • This year’s budget deficit in the US is worse than the most pessimistic economists expected
  • The tsunami of investments that President Trump promised as a result of his uneven tax cut has not materialised[
  • Profits of the large corporations, which fuelled the stock markets are weakening.
  • Revenue growth in the FAANG club of companies is weakening.
  • The US trade war with China.
  • Growing tension in the South China Sea and between China and Taiwan.
  • The time may come when China decides its loss of control and face due to the continuing mass protests is worse than the fall-out of abrogating the deal with Britain about Hong Kong’s special stat.
  • The tension around the Gulf of Hormuz and the threat of hot conflict with Iran.
  • Possible tension and strife caused by food shortages due to climate change.
  • Brexit and the collapse of normal democracy in Britain. Great Britain breaking up into three entities.
  • The shift towards populist rightwing politics in countries like Poland, Hungary, Brazil, and Australia.
  • The possibility of a failure of Italy. Its economy is so big, the EU possibly wouldn’t survive this disaster in its current form.
  • The risk of massive bankruptcies among China’s banks and big government-owned companies.

Perhaps all this is a false alarm and maybe the decline in profits and revenue growth is just a short blip, but I feel more uneasy about it by the day. The time seems ripe for a mega Black Swan (thank you Mr. Taleb) and sometimes it is better to lock in one’s profits.

If you have time of life, you can always come back when the tension is out of the air. And if you don’t, what does it matter?

Suriname, the most forested country in the world

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Hosted HFLD Conference on Climate Finance Mobilization.

In the picture H.E President Desire Bouterse, President of the Republic Suriname (R) and H.E Antoine Joly, Ambassador of France in Suriname (L)

By Mr. Oquemele Denz MSc, ChargĆ© d’affaires, Embassy of theĀ RepublicĀ of Suriname.

The Embassy of the Republic of Suriname in the Hague, Netherlands, introduces Suriname to the Diplomat Magazine as the most forested country in the world, with a forest coverage of 93%. In addition, Suriname has a low deforestation rate and with these characteristics belongs to the group of countries with High Forest cover and Low Deforestation (HFLD).

It is imperative for this trend to change since these HFLD developing countries are in dire need of adequate and tangible international climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building to support their transition towards a climate resilient and low emissions development and to achieve the goals set forth in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement.

Suriname Climate Finance Mobilization Conference.

In this regard, the Government of Suriname, with the support of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Office in Suriname, hosted the high-level HFLD Conference on Climate Finance Mobilization in her capital Paramaribo from 12-14 February, 2019. This conference gathered around 200 national and international experts from 27 countries and 15 international, regional and non-governmental organizations to increase cooperation and exchange knowledge and experiences on climate finance mechanisms.

Mr. Oquemele Denz, Charge d’affaires of the Republic of Suriname to The Netherlands.

On this occasion the HFLD developing countries established their joint strategies and positions on climate finance mobilization, summarized in the adopted ā€œKrutu of Paramaribo Joint Declaration on HFLD Climate Finance Mobilizationā€. This declaration has mandated Suriname to bring the HFLD developing countries’ effort to the international fora, an assignment taken very seriously and to which Suriname has pledged its dedication.

Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic Suriname, H.E  Ms. Yldiz Pollack-Beighle (R)

By this mandate the Government of Suriname convened the first meeting of the HFLD Platform on May 6, 2019 in New York, on the margins of the 14th the United NationsForum on Forests (UNFF14) with the objective to operationalize the ā€œHFLD Platformā€ asa flexible forum for consultation and collaboration on policies related to HFLD and climate finance mobilization.

The HFLD developing countries have chartered a new pathway to jointly continue their efforts and focus on practical results, and will work towards a united voice and innovative models to shape their mutual interests, which will strongly empower their efforts on their way forward.

Panorama Mesdag presents: Louis Apol on Nova Zembla

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From Ā 19 October 2019 to 1 March 2020

This autumn, Panorama Mesdag will be presenting the exciting exhibition Louis Apol on Nova Zembla. In 1880, the artist Louis Apol (1850–1936) of The Hague undertook the journey of a lifetime. He joined a team of scientists on an expedition to Nova Zembla, spending four months on board the polar schooner Willem Barentsz. As a specialist in painting winter landscapes, this trip offered him the ideal opportunity, during a treacherous journey, to study the most remarkable ice formations and desolate, snow-covered landscapes from close by and to depict them. ‘Apol draws and sketches everywhere; he won’t even leave his sketchbook behind when we go out hunting.’ The exhibition displays a selection of the 200 pencil drawings, sketches, and watercolours that Apol produced in the course of the trip. In looking through the eyes of this unusual crew member, we ourselves experience the adventurous expedition to Nova Zembla: we gain unique insight into life on board the polar schooner and the artist’s working method, and are introduced to the many remarkablecreatures, human beings, and natural phenomena that he encountered during the journey. The exhibition also reflects on the panoramic painting that Apol created in 1896 on the basis of his Nova Zembla sketches. It was a popular attraction in the Panorama building in Amsterdam for many years, until it suddenly fell off the radar around 1930. What happened to this enormous painting? ———————- Source: Captain’s logbook, Nova Zembla expedition In the picture Opnamedatum:Ā 2018-03-23

Taiwan’s Gamble in the Trade War- the New Southbound Policy and its consequences to the status quo

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By Jake Wright. Taiwan is in a period of uncertainty. Although its ruling party (the DPP) advocates for independence, refusing to abide by the 1992 Consensus and are pushing for a fully sovereign state of Taiwan, unlike its political rivals (the KMT) who mutually ā€˜agree to disagree’ with the PRC on who is the legitimate government of China. Despite this bold platform, Taiwan’s circle of diplomatic allies recognizing its statehood has shrunk to just 17 states and economic growth is stagnating. For three years, Taiwan played defensively on the international stage to keep the remaining support close with enticing investments. The clearest example of buying allies’ favour was a $150 million loan approved to Haiti, although it has yet to be ratified by Haitian Parliament. Still, the head of staff for President Moise, Wilson Laleau, foreshadowed to Haiti exploring potential partnerships with the PRC. Indeed, this was not enough for four: Burkina Faso, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Panama and SĆ£o TomĆ© and PrĆ­ncipe who have flipped recognition to the PRC over the past three years. Taiwan’s response is pragmatic: pivoting towards an informal economic offensive on emerging markets. This is achieved by offering investment to South-South East Asian countries for developing their capabilities for exports, to serve as a counterpoint to China’s disruptive posturing in the region. This is the New Southbound Policy. This Policy will financially incentivise domestic champions of key industries to divert its supply chains away from mainland China and set up operations in the South to benefit from cheaper labour and expand Taiwanese soft power. It shall1) promote economic collaborations and developing destination markets; 2) develop and share talents and resources; 3) relocate manufacturing to destination countries to provide them with a Taiwanese model of production; and 4) expand cooperation between Taiwan and the destination countries. Countries hostile to China’s projection, such as Vietnam and India, are expected to benefit the most from these relocations. Despite the Center for Strategic and International Studies publishing a reporton the Policy, arguing its impact is on small-to-medium enterprises, the ongoing trade war has broadened its application. Several corporations in the IT sector have already started relocating elements of their supply line to the South, having the Taiwan government sponsoring these migrations will encourage more. The intended effect of this is to decouple Taiwan’s reliance with the mainland and place it as a global competitor against the PRC.
Night market – Taiwan. Image by Robert Pastryk from Pixabay
Much has been written on the impact the Policy could have for Taiwan’s slowing economic growth and its position in the region with a tariff-stricken China. Don Shapiroposits this will reawaken Taiwan’s ā€˜soft power’ with a much wider scope than before. This is framed as a respite to Taiwan’s ā€˜over-reliance’ on the PRC, reducing its insecurity due to external political ā€˜shocks’. The Communist Party of China has conducted targeted suspensions of foreign enterprises at times of political antagonism; as in the case of Lotte. Regardless, very little has been said on the New Southbound Policy’s effect on the cross-Strait relationship. This decoupling strategy may finally make a peaceful resolution, or at least transforming to constructive de-escalation, a practical impossibility. Without this common basis of economic self-interest held by the other party, provocations are more likely to be interpreted as unilateral and destructive in nature. Moreover, this movement will permanently change the narrative for future rapprochement discussions: once the supply chain is relocated, Taiwanese enterprises become both economic and political competition in southern markets. In 2009, Taiwanese economist Liang Chi-yuan commented in the Sunday Timesthat Chinese investment in Taiwan would deter them from attacking, and for good reason. When both parties are invested in each other and share common goals, there is far less room for miscalculating intentions: attacking the other means crippling your own economic output. This was understood by the KMT (nationalist opposition) and comprehensively expanded under the Ma Ying-jeou administration. The KMT adhered stringently to the 1992 consensus and focused on cooperating on practical issues. After a bitter rivalry for which side is the legitimate representative of China, Ma Ying-jeou broke new ground by participating in a summit with Xi Jinping. The result was to widen and deepen the interdependence between Taiwan and the PRC, providing additional incentives to reduce hostilities and cooperate. Lifting the ban on direct flights exponentially increased leisure and business travel between the two states. The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement helped alleviate the economic downturn and allowed more Taiwanese corporations to export their supply chain to the PRC for cheaper production costs. The consequence of this was a significant reduction in cross-strait tensions – no provocations, stronger Ā security and stable interactions. This positive diplomatic effort brought about the most peaceful era of cross-strait relations in over sixty years. Almost all of this progress has been lost: the Tourism Bureaureports Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan has fallen from 4.18 million in 2015 to 2.69 million in 2018; the lowest intra-strait movements since 2010. On 31stJuly, the PRC halted issuing individual travel permits to Taiwan, limiting travel to tourist groups only. Moreover, military escalations will intensify as Taiwan received approval for a $2.2 billion arms sale from the US and China responded with a military beach drill. Although the link between economics and security is often derided as an anachronism, the cross-Strait mutual investment in each other’s market has a tangible benefit to deterring the outbreak of conflict. This author is not justifying the PRC’s approach to Taiwan, but is speaking from a position of political practicality. The DPP should opt for the re-engagement of high-level talks with the PRC without preconditions of recognition, and continue the positive progress made by the Ma Ying-jeou administration. Moreover, it should establish an official exchange office in the PRC to facilitate non-economic, cooperative activities. Clearly, the DPP does not want to spark a conflict with its New Southbound Policy, but the unintended consequences of losing economic linkages to the PRC could be catastrophic. ————————– About the author:Ā Jake Wright, is an East Asian geopolitics and conflict researcher.

Fracking Societies through manufactured revolts

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ByĀ Carlos Pereyra. If society is considered as an open, complex and dynamic system.Ā  This system is attributed for the quality of both organizing and disorganizing.Ā  Constructive chaos occurs when there is an attempt to harness these destructive and seemingly random forces, for strategic purposes. The chaos strategy proposes the artificial creation of disorder and violence in a country or areas that are considered as an object. It can be secured through an unconventional war – use of different methods to achieve internal convulsions within a target country or the use of armed intermediaries to lead to a civil war scenario in a target country.Ā  It is a standardized regime changeĀ approach when to topple government or to trigger political collapse of a country or entire region. Chaos theory aroused great interest from a sector of the American elite.Ā Different authors and protagonists, academics and practitioners, took theoretical premises of it to understand the mechanics of social movements in countries and operate on them to obtain designated objectives.Ā  They would formulate their application as a strategy, through a built chaos, for the achievement of American geostrategic interests. These models begin with the introduction of a colour revolution, or a ā€œSpringā€. That represents some kind of revolt or navigated or manufactured ā€˜spontaneity’ of a street demonstration. Certainly, it represents a clear cut case of a soft coup, which could then be followed by a hard blow, through an unconventional war.Ā  If the first fails, population is exposed to social engineering methods and hybrid wars, so that they can escalate into violence, produce civil wars, the results are the change of government or the collapse of the State itself. If this sequence is repeated in several countries of the same region, we can talk about areas that are not integrated (Gap) under Barnett’s parameters. ā€œGradually, the imperial civilizing mission (Expansion is a path to Security) got a new form. It became a moral duty – R2P (Responsibility to Protect), as much as the parental duty is to raise their infant child. The handsome, masculine and strong Western Prince CharmingĀ has one duty – to emancipate his Eastern Sleeping Beauty. Giving a ā€˜kiss’ meant projecting the western physical military presence, and commerceā€ – remarks prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic in his brilliant geo-philosophical synthesis ā€œImperialism of Lullabyā€. Hence, what is a chaos? Engineering the Chaos Chaos theory applied as a strategy is simply a form of social engineering. Based on a comparison of the main guidelines of the strategy of chaos and hybrid warfare, we find under deduction that chaos theory is understood as a variant of the hybrid and fourth generation paradigm of wars.Ā  The objective is to change the regime of a country marked as objective, but it should not be ruled out that the collapse of the state structure is not a desired objective. As we have observed in all these cases, Chaos Theory has been used as a geostrategic foundation of the US to strengthen its role as a global hegemon after the Cold War, mainly in the Middle East area. Chaos theory seeks to provoke, induce attitudes, behaviours, through social engineering to the population of a target country in addition to infiltrating external elements, violence spreads like a computer virus, the expected result is that the system will ā€œreset/restartā€ with a change of government or such a state disintegrated.Ā  If that is the last case it will also be favourable for the US anyway. Based on the historical methodology to analyse, and the prospective methodology to project, based on trend tracking.Ā  Its future use in other scenarios is not ruled out. Just as Arab springs and colour revolutions have occurred in the former Soviet space, this does not mean that they cannot be introduced outside those geographical areas, according to the interests of contenders fighting for their interests.Ā  Many of these patterns mentioned above are observed in Venezuela to date. Chaos theory and strategy is a paradigmatic methodology of the US, in the geopolitical plane its main objective is the fragmentation and fracturing of the Eurasian belt. We must emphasize that this search for an unquestionable American unipolar hegemony project found its counterweight in recent years with the participation and active intervention in various scenarios and global situations of China and Russia, which to date seem to seek to consolidate a strategic partnership. ————————– About the author: Carlos Pereyra MĆ©le is a Director of the Argentina-based Dossier Geopolitico  

The US and the global promotion of Hybrid Wars. A perspective from Latin America

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About the latest geopolitical and international events

  By Prof. Dr Miguel Ɓngel Barrios.
The great English geopolitical theorist Halford Mackinder in his famous conference ā€œThe geographical pivot in historyā€ in 1904 divided the world as a system (he was the first to speak of a system from a historic geopolitical approach to Earth) on the World Island: Eurasia, In the area of Russia is the decisive area of world power and the continental islands – such as Africa and America that do not have direct access to the world island. Over time, Nicholas John Spykman, geopolitical theorist of the US world supremacy and a disciple of Mackinder, wrote during the Second World War ā€œUSA against the worldā€ and ratifies the need to control Eurasia from the Rimland, since the US is a global hegemon that has the characteristic of not being located on the world island, but on the continental island.Ā [1] It is the first empire in history with this geopolitical exceptionality, so England is essential to divide Europe and Japan to divide Asia and thus become an accessible platform to control the world island. But Spykman adds a twist, we must keep Balkanized Latin America divided so that it does not manage to articulate its cultural unity in political power and for this the instrument was economic and military aggression. Spykman renews the so-called Monroe doctrine from a new geopolitical logic [2]Ā to make it their backyard and that ā€œAmerica for the Americans,ā€ truly means:ā€the Americas for the USAā€.Ā Ā we must remember that it was born to boycott the unionist idea of the Liberator Simon Bolivar.Ā  The philosopher JosĆ© Vasconcelos crumbles him very well in his work ā€œBolivariano vs MonroĆ­smoā€œ. The US is in a great strategic disorientation in the post-Cold War and in the face of the emergence of a multipolar world from the defeat of Daesh or ISIS, a terrorist organization created by them – as is clear from WikiLeaks and the role of Hillary Clinton – in Syria caused by the Syrian forces themselves, Russia, Iran and the active diplomacy of Pope Francis, as well as other events and processes. This makes the Imperial Republic a wounded and more dangerous lion with its Falcons pretending to redraw the world board, world system with military muscle. Thus being the main destabilizer of international security and at the same time promoter of global Terrorism. On the world island he is creating a dangerous escalation against the Islamic Republic of Iran, a country of regional power in the Islamic cultural world 40 years after the revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini.Ā precisely in the area of the Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz – of an unparalleled geopolitical significance as the main oil route – and here the power of Iran and its links with Russia and China are combined. It also involves England, its privileged retiree according to Brzezinski, in a dangerous zero-sum game that has already produced losses such as the demolition of a drone or the seizure of English ships. To this is added the diplomatic isolation due to the current worldwide discrediting of its historical allies such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, true serial human rights violators. This political short-sightedness of the hawks of American foreign policy may lead the US in a short time- into a fatal defeat in the World Island. This is aggravated by the impulse of a new Monroe doctrine on the continental island, that is, in what they consider their ā€œbackyard.ā€ This doctrine for us is clear has three pillars: economic, judicial and military. In economic terms, indirect or direct war against China, in judicial matters, to create a persecution party directed based on their interests (former judge Moro and the arrest of Lula is a paradigmatic case) and the militarization of South America creating the hypothesis that terrorism and organized crime are the threats in a new face of the old National Security Doctrine. In Venezuela the first hybrid war of Latin American history is taking placeĀ [3]Ā And this is a worldwide surprise, although many ā€œlocal expertsā€ are silent in that Venezuela in alliance with other actors is leading a defeat to the US on the World-Island. In this lies a central fact, the silence and the declaration of non-intervention of the Brazilian Armed Forces against the support of the US for its president, Bolsonaro. And the diplomatic group of countries of ā€œsupport for democracy in Venezuelaā€, a kind of new OAS, the so-called PROSUR or rather PRONORTE does not have the minimum prestige, to the point that one of its leaders is the discredited Argentine president Macri. Five months after the Guaidó doctrine was launched in the context of the new Monroe doctrine, everything has failed in Venezuela and even from the diplomatic to the military. Venezuela is the real border of South America with the US, the Caribbean is theĀ Mare Nostrum of the Empire and its geopolitical characteristics is unique because it is: Latin American, South American and Caribbean. It is the great achievement of rediscovering it for us what Commander Hugo ChĆ”vez did. The thing is about not to deviate us in the question of Maduro yes or Maduro not.Ā But in recognizing that the Guaidó doctrine can lead any citizen from a platform to proclaim himself president if the US recognizes him within fifteen minutes. If that succeeds, tomorrow anyone will proclaim himself president of the Amazon, Patagonia or the so-called Triple Frontier and a re-Balkanization of Latin America could occur. That is to say, at this point the US is also being defeated mainly by the unity of the Bolivarian armed forces. Not by chance, the disastrous Francis Fukuyama – admired by much of the Argentinian Inteligentzia – has just declared in his brand new visit to Argentina,Ā  that the Bolivarian armed forces is an army of drug traffickers And in his latest book ā€œIdentityā€ he attacks Juan Domingo Perón as the archetype of resentment politics in South America.Ā Ā The saddest thing is that the vast majority of pejotistĀ Ā [4]Ā leadersĀ Ā They do not feel referenced in these terms by cowardice and cipayismĀ [5]. However, Peronism as a cultural historical phenomenon is at the base of the Argentine people and pejotist leaders must know that if they are not faithful to the people, they will be razed by history. As the last point of the analysis, we say that it has just been carried out in Buenos Aires with the presence of the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, the II Hemispheric Conference against Terrorism, continuation of the first one held in December 2018 in the US. Terrorism is the enemy, as conclusion of the encounter. Better to say the so-called ā€œIslamic terrorismā€ and Iran is accused of the attacks on the Embassy and the AMIA. At this point, we echo the words of Pope Francis when he said that ā€œterrorism is not synonymous with Islamism.ā€ But two days before July 19 that the meeting was, President Macri declared in a record that he created under pressure from the US and Israel that the Hezbolla group of Lebanon is a terrorist organization. This constitutes a fact of a unique gravity because it is a true declaration of war against Lebanon, since Hezbolla is an officially recognized party that has legislators and ministries in Lebanon – that is, it is part of the government – and even more, not even the Ā United Nations declares it as a terrorist organization. And there is also a persecution without equal to Syrian-Lebanese citizens and descendants, fully integrated into Argentine society. The irresponsibility is so great that the Argentine government is involved in the ā€œthird world war in piecesā€ denounced by Pope Francis and dangerously aligns us with the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia, in a war they are losing to Russia, Turkey, Iran, China and Syria and papal multipolar diplomacy.Ā Ā And this defeat on the world island is the main factor in the birth of a multipolar ā€œorderā€, the opposite was a global military empire that was ā€œThe Project for the New American Centuryā€ of the American hawks. Also from the US, they accuse Hezbolla of having planned the two attacks and financing terrorism from the Triple Frontier. Triple Frontier is a geopolitical category born in the US referring to an ā€œarea without law.ā€ it was always and is the milestone of the three borders between Puerto IguazĆŗ-Argentina-, Foz do IguazĆŗ-Brasil- and Ciudad del Este-Paraguay . The record of tourist influx increases year by year, the integration is total in the commercial, cultural, educational fields like any border. Of course there are facts of insecurity, such as smuggling of all kinds, for example. which involves the issue of border security. But there was never a terrorist attack or terrorist groups were discovered. And here is a nuclear point. We cannot talk about any issue and more about security without specifying the strategic actors. There is no unanimous consensus in international law on terrorism. For us Terrorism, rather than a subject, is a tactic of violence for political purposes. It can be an individual, a para-police or paramilitary group, an individual or a State. That is, what defines terrorism is not the morphology of the subject but its action. Regarding organized crime, we can affirm that it is a structured group that, based on drug trafficking, and as territoriality gains, it becomes an economic and not only economic political actor. We also clarify that there is not only organized crime with the collusion of sectors of political, police, judicial, business, etc. But more than anything in the global financial sector. that is to say of the tax havens or ā€˜fiscal dens’ that make the dirty circuit of drug trafficking money ā€œenterā€ into the legal circuit. There are accusations of intelligence services of the ā€œfinancial movementsā€ of Lebanese families, and the ā€œsecurity expertsā€ in a cut and paste of the ā€œinformationā€ write about it. There are always very few exceptions among experts, but there are. But nobody says anything for ex. that the former president of Paraguay, Cartes, a close friend of Macri, is accused of being one of the leaders of the informal economy in Ciudad del Este. And besides, Ciudad del Este is full of Anglo-American banks. Already these reports, they came to say that Bin Laden was in the area in the 90s of the last century without any seriousness. However, it is striking that these ā€œexpertsā€ do not speak of the desires of the Imperial Republic of the GuaranĆ­ aquifer system, biodiversity, lithium, oil, gas, in synthesis of our natural resources. Finally, we have failed as Unasur at the time, when the South American Defense Council was created, it has not coordinated with the community the preparation of an Observatory of crime and violence between justice, municipalities, intermediate associations, universities, etc. There is much talking about the ā€œtriple frontierā€, without knowing, we reiterate by cutting and pasting newspapers. In my case, I am a Professor at the Tres Fronteras International UniversityĀ (University of the Three Borders) of postgraduate studies in Ciudad del Este, I have been invited by the Latin American University of Integration (UNILA) in Foz to exhibit at congresses and I have taught the Police of Misiones Province and the Argentinian Army in Iguazu. And therefore, they did not tell me, I know very well the milestone of the three Borders and in homage to that great border community we have a duty to know and demand the truth, but seriously. Therefore, we believe that the promotion of hybrid wars is carried out by the US, as a sponsor of Terrorism and worse, now that they are losing on the world island and the continental island. His strategic despair transforms him into the main destabilizer of world peace References: [1]Ā Miguel Ɓngel Barrios: Diccionario Latinoamericano deĀ Seguridad y GeopolĆ­tica. (Latin American Dictionary of Security and Geopolitics.) [2] Indeed a unilateral statement by President James Monroe devised by his secretary of state Quincy Adams. [3] In summary hybrid warfare are new forms of war where all types of war in history are combined, or whether conventional, unconventional, terrorism, psychological warfare, economic warfare, disinformation war, paramilitary actions seeking regime change government , etc.). [4] From PJ: Partido Justicialista (Justicialist Party, formal name of the official peronist party) [5]Ā From ā€œCIPAYOā€ (sepoy) derogatory term in Argentina, in reference to those who act or think in favor of foreign powers. Term popularized by the thinker Arturo Jauretche. ———————————– Article translated from Spanish into English by Juan MartĆ­n GonzĆ”lez CabaƱasĀ . Original article published by Dossier Geopolitico https://dossiergeopolitico.com/2019/07/23/las-novedades-geopoliticas-de-eeuu-como-promotor-del-terrorismo-en-el-siglo-xxi/   ———————————– About the author: Prof. Dr Miguel Ɓngel Barrios (Argentina) is Academic Director of Dossier Geopolitico. He holds PHD in Education – PHD in Political Science. Author of more than fifteen works of Latin American Politics, Prof. Dr Barrios is recognized by the specialized critics as one of the referents of Latin American thought.

Slovenia Contributes €20,000 to Support OPCW Activities

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Slovenia’s Permanent Representative to the OPCW, H.E. Ambassador Sanja Å tiglic and H.E. Fernando Arias, OPCW Director General. The Government of Slovenia has contributed €20,000 to support significant projects and activities of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).
The donation was formalized last May at the Organization’s Headquarters in The Hague at a ceremony involving the OPCW Director-General, H.E. Mr Fernando Arias, and Slovenia’s Permanent Representative to the OPCW, H.E. Ambassador Sanja Å tiglic.
Slovenia’s Permanent Representative to the OPCW, H.E. Ambassador Sanja Å tiglic.
Ambassador Å tiglic, on behalf of the Government of the Republic of Slovenia, announced the decision to contribute €20,000 and remarked: ā€œSlovenia strongly supports the OPCW’s activities aiming for the goal of a world free of chemical weapons and the threat of their use. This includes investigating and attributing responsibility for documented use of chemical weapons in Syria, as well as increasing training and capacity building capabilities offered to States Parties through the construction of a new facility, the OPCW Centre for Chemistry and Technology.ā€ Director-General Arias stated: ā€œI wish to express my sincere thanks to the government of Slovenia for this contribution. Without the continued support of all the States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention, the OPCW would not be able to carry out its important work around the world.ā€ Slovenia contributed €10,000 to a special OPCW Trust Fund to support the project to upgrade the current OPCW Laboratory and Equipment Store. This project will result in the construction of a new facility, which will meet the demands of OPCW States Parties for enhanced verification tools, improved detection capabilities and response measures, as well as increased capacity-building activities. Slovenia contributed another €10,000 toward the Trust Fund for Syria Missions for the OPCW to identify the perpetrators of chemical weapons attacks in the Syrian Arab Republic.

Leiden University wins ICC Moot Court Competition

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Pictured here: ICC Judge Geoffrey A. Henderson with the winning team Ā©ICC-CPI Leiden University (The Netherlands) won the International Criminal Court (ICC) Moot Court Competition – English edition. The final round was held today, 7 June 2019, in CourtroomĀ IĀ of the ICC in The Hague (the Netherlands). The Honorable Society of King’s Inns (Ireland) and The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong) share the second place. The award for the Best Speaker went to Anna Rubbi from Leiden University (The Netherlands). Members of the winning team are Cale Davis, Keat Teoh, Elizabeth Hartley, Anna Rubbi, Olivia Waddell, Tess van Gaal and Pauline Martini. On the judge’s bench for this competition were ICC Judge Geoffrey A. Henderson, presiding, and ICC legal officers Simon de Smet and Chitrangada Singh. The teams competed on a fictitious case, presenting oral arguments in the roles of the Office of the Prosecutor, the Defence and State Counsel, which were web-streamed live on the Court’s website. This version of the ICC Moot Court Competition is organised by the Grotius Centre for International Legal Studies – Leiden University, in partnership with the International Bar Association and sponsored by the Planethood Foundation, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, The Hague Municipality and Stanza Bookshop. Top students of 69 universities from 51 countries and six continents worldwide participated in the preliminary stage of this year’s ICC Moot Court Competition. In the context of its Academic Programme, the ICC supports the organisation of ICC Moot Court Competitions in Chinese, English, Russian and Spanish, with a view to also support Arabic and French versions in the future. These initiatives play a critical role in galvanising interest in the Court’s work with academic communities as well as in enhancing promotion and respect for international criminal law.

Residentie Orkest the Hague – Business Circle Meeting

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Public Transport: Past, present and future

By Roy Lie Atjam. The Philharmonic orchestra and the Residentie Orkest Business Circle met at the HTM museum. This particular Business Circle meeting was organized at the invitation of our esteemed member and General Director of the HTM, Mr. Jaap Bierman and Mr. Jan Linssen who is also a member of the philharmonic orchestra’s Business Circle Board and also CEO of ARS Traffic & Transport Technology.
Residentie Orkest the Hague – Business Circle Meeting
Mr. Bierman presented his vision on the future of public transport for the city, as well as provided the opportunity for all to get an insight into the historical part of the public transport company in The Hague HTM. The Hague Public Transport Museum with its impressive collection of historical trams proved to be an ideal location for the event. The Residentie Orkest Den Haag performed “ritmic” music at this unique location. The musical performers were Erik Reinders, Jos Tieman and Farid Sheek. Reinders and Tieman performed the Sonata for bassoon and bass by Mozart. Erik Reinders studied at the Royal Conservatory in The Hague and has been a bassoonist with the Residentie Orchestra since 1997. Jos Tieman has been a bassist with the Residentie Orkest since 1984 and studied at the Arnhem Municipal Conservatory. Farid Sheek also gave a great performance. Sheek and the Residentie Orkest gave a fine performance before at a similar gathering in het Paard. Ā Sheek, who fled Iran a few years ago, enthralled the audience playing the Daf,Ā one of the world’s oldest percussion instruments. His passion is to create a new musical blend, combining the beauty of Western and Eastern music. A networking session and cocktail reception followed the formal part of the evening.

New National Member for Estonia at Eurojust

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In the picture Ms Laura Vaik ; she took up her duties as the new National Member for Estonia at Eurojust in March 2019. Throughout her professional career, Ms Vaik participated as an expert in cross-border cooperation against organized crime in various international fora, committees, and organisations, inter alia the Council of Europe. In that role, she made a valuable contribution to fighting money laundering, financial crime and corruption, and she provided specialised training to prosecutors, judges and other judicial practitioners. Ms Vaik’s first position was Assistant Prosecutor at the Department of Financial Crimes of the Estonian Northern District Prosecutor’s Office; she was promoted to District Prosecutor in 2001. From 2003 – 2004, she served as a docent of general provisions on penal law at the Public Service Academy of Estonia. In the period 2005 – 2019, Ms Vaik occupied the position of State Prosecutor at the Prosecution Department of the Prosecutor’s General Office of Estonia, and subsequently at the Internal Control Department of the same institution. From 2008 to 2011, prior to her appointment as National Member for Estonia, Ms Vaik worked as a Seconded National Expert to the Estonian Desk at Eurojust. In the context of the Estonian Presidency of the Council of the European Union in 2017, Ms Vaik joined the DROIPEN Working Party on Substantive Criminal Law, whichworks to align national provisions of substantive criminal law. In 2006 and 2013, she was one of the nominees for the title of ā€˜Prosecutor of the Year’ in Estonia. In 2011, she published an article on Problems and Perspectives of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office in the Estonian judicial magazine Juridica. Ms Vaik graduated from the University of Tartu and obtained a Master’s Degree in Law in 2000. She also holds a Master’s Degree in public administration from Tallinn University of Technology. After her appointment to Eurojust, Ms Vaik said: ā€˜I am delighted to return to Eurojust as the new National Member for my country after my previous secondment to the Estonian Desk. It is a special honour for me to represent my country in an organisation that has contributed so much to fighting transnationalĀ organizedĀ crime and has a lot more to offer. I will dedicate all my experience and efforts to Eurojust’s goals and stronger cooperation with Member States and third countries. Only together can we target more criminals and better protect our fellow European citizens.’