By Guido Lanfranchi.

After a long campaign, the Global Coalition against ISIS declared that the Islamic State has been militarily defeated. Yet, the organization will continue to pose a threat in the Middle East and beyond, and efforts to counter their narrative and actions are still very much needed – the Coalition warned.

At the end of March 2019, the years-long campaign to deprive the Islamic State of its hold on territory in the area across the Syrian-Iraqi border finally came to an end. The campaign has been jointly managed by a coalition of 74 countries and 5 international organization, named the Global Coalition against ISIS, in cooperation with the Iraqi Security Forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have been operating on the ground on the two sides of the Syrian-Iraqi border. Since the beginning of the operations in 2014, over 111.000 square kilometres of territory have been freed from the Islamic State’s control, thus taking 7.7 million people out of the group’s control – official data provided by the Coalition show.

In the wake of the liberation of Baghouz by the SDF, British Major General Christopher Ghika, Deputy Commander of Strategy and Information for the Coalition, exposed the Coalition’s view to the press. While welcoming the military defeat of the Islamic State and its deprivation of controlled territory, Maj. Gen. Ghika warned that “this is not the end of them [the Islamic State], nor of the military campaign against them”. As it has been denied territorial control, the Islamic State is now set to turn into an underground movement – he noted, warning that such development would still pose a major threat to countries in the region and beyond, as the group is expected to still rely on around one thousand active fighters. 

As a result – Maj. Gen. Ghika announced – the Coalition will not stop its efforts. First of all, the countries active in the Coalition will continue to support, not least through direct military training, both the Iraqi Security Forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces, in order to ensure that local forces will be able to fight any threat that might emanate from the Islamic State’s cells in the two countries. To this end, the Coalition will keep a certain number of troops on the ground – Maj. Gen. Ghika noted, although declining to specify any figure in this regard.

The continued engagement of the Coalition will be broader than its military training – Maj- Gen. Ghika stressed. He underlined the importance of countering the narrative of the Islamic State, with a view on winning the hearts and minds of the group’s silent supporters. In addition to that, he noted that work will be needed to disrupt the international network supporting the group, as well as to ensure that displaced people will be able to return to their homes. 

Moreover, much work will need to be done to ensure that those who have committed crimes will be held accountable. Currently, a large number of fighters and civilians associated with the Islamic State is being held in Syria. As among these fighters there are several foreign nationals, it will be important to reach an international consensus on how to deal with the cases of these people – Maj. Gen. Ghika said, stressing however that the decision to readmit or not foreign fighters in their countries of origin will depend on the will of sovereign national governments.

In the wake of the military defeat of the Islamic State, many challenges still lie ahead, and the Global Coalition against ISIS will have to face the hard task of trying to tackle them.

By Guido Lanfranchi.

In the wake of meetings with representatives from both the Venezuelan opposition and Russia, U.S. Special Representative Elliott Abrams blamed the government of Nicolás Maduro and its supporters for the crisis in Venezuela. The United States – he announced – will continue to push for the restoration of democracy in the country.

As the situation of Venezuela continues to be characterized by the power struggle between Mr. Nicolás Maduro and Mr. Juan Guaidó, this political clash has implication on the international diplomatic scene too. The international community remains split on the political crisis faced by Venezuela: on the one hand, 54 countries, led by the United States and the Lima Group, have recognized the legitimacy of interim President Guaidó; on the other hand, other countries around the world, including powerful states such as Russia and China, continue to consider the government of President Maduro as the legitimate one. While the positions of these countries remain distant, diplomats from both sides are currently attempting to jointly address the situation in Venezuela, as proved by the recent talks between Senior U.S. and Russian officials in Rome.

While the positions of these countries remain distant, diplomats from both sides are currently attempting to jointly address the situation in Venezuela, as proved by the recent talks between Senior U.S. and Russian officials in Rome.

In the wake of the Rome talks, Mr. Elliott Abrams, U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela, addressed the press to explain the U.S. administration’s position on the situation in the country. Touching upon the situation in Venezuela, Mr. Abrams regretted the continuation of the blackouts that have been recently affecting the country, defining them as “a symbol of the mismanagement that the Maduro regime is responsible for”. He went on by accusing the government of weaponizing and politicizing the humanitarian aid distributed in Venezuela, as well as of ensuring the loyalty of the army through a mix of fear and clientelism.

Special Representative Abrams continued by outlining the U.S. strategy in Venezuela. He reiterated that the only aim of the United States is “supporting the Venezuelan people in their desire to get rid of the Maduro regime and return Venezuela to democracy”. In doing so – he pledged – the U.S. will continue to back interim President Juan Guaidó, as shown by the recent meeting held by Guaidó’s wife, Ms. Fabiana Rosales, with U.S. President Trump and Vice President Pence. Moreover, the U.S. will continue to insist for the delivery of humanitarian aid in the country – Mr. Abrams noted, dubbing as “ridiculous” the narrative portraying the U.S. aid as malign interference.

As for the relations between the U.S. administration and the Maduro government, Special Representative Abrams underlined that past attempts to negotiate with Mr. Maduro did not lead to any steps forward for the country. Therefore, “the only thing to negotiate with Maduro is his terms of departure” – he claimed, stressing that the U.S. administration will continue with its strategy of applying pressure on Mr. Maduro through sanctions. Questioned about the potential negative effects of such sanctions on the Venezuelan population, Mr. Abrams underlined that the economic crisis affecting Venezuela dates back to well before the recently-imposed U.S. sanctions, thus fully blaming the government for the current situation.

After blaming the government of Mr. Maduro, Special Representative Abrams went on by pointing the finger at its international supporters, chiefly Russia. He condemned Russia for its support to the government of Mr. Maduro, accusing Russian authorities of being interested in protecting the money owed by Venezuela to Russia, without caring about the Venezuelan people. Moreover, Mr. Abrams condemned the recent arrival of military flights from Russia to Venezuela, describing such actions as “counterproductive for any solution”. However, he noted that the discussions between the U.S. and Russia on Venezuela continue, including at a very high-level, with the direct involvement of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Finally, Special Representative Abrams voiced its concern for the arrest of Mr. Roberto Marrero, Guaidó’s chief of staff, pointing at it as an example of the increasing repression perpetrated by the government of Mr. Maduro. Speaking about the potential challenges faced by interim President Guaidó himself, Mr. Abrams warned that “the regime will pay an enormous price for doing anything to Interim President Guaidó, not just diplomatically but internally from the Venezuelan people”, and expressed his hope that the Venezuelan government will decide not undertake any such measures. 

Until now, the U.S. has decided to employ economic, political, diplomatic, and financial pressure to address the situation in Venezuela – Special Representative Abrams argued. Yet – he specified – all options remain on the table, as recently remarked by U.S. President Trump. As the situation in Venezuela evolves, international dynamics are set to play a key role in shaping the course of events. 

By Guido Lanfranchi.

In late March, the United States Treasury further increased its economic and financial pressure on Iran. The most recent measures consisted of sanctions towards a network funding Iran’s armed forces, as well as of enhanced warnings for private companies engaging with Iranian entities.

Since May 2018, when the United States decided to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, the U.S. Treasury has been busy with devising and implementing a set of measures aimed at depriving the Iranian government from its sources of revenue.

Speaking to the press during a trip to South and South-East Asia, Ms. Sigal Mandelker, Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence at the U.S. Treasury Department, outlined to the press the most recent set of measures, which took effect as of March 26^th. 

The most recent sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury targeted a network of 25 individuals and entities from Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey, allegedly involved in the transfer of over a billion dollars to Iran’s armed forces, notably to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL). This network was devised by the Iranian government to provide support to the IRGC and Iran’s foreign fighters abroad, including in Syria – Ms. Mandelker explained, noting that similar patterns of behaviour had already been observed over the past years.

Under Secretary Mandelker described the mechanism employed by the network, which consisted of front companies set up by the Iranian entity Ansar Bank and its subsidiary Ansar Exchange. These entities allegedly trafficked in rials, dollars, euros, and gold, in order to provide large amounts of money, amounting to over a billion dollars, to Iran’s armed groups, such as the IRGC and MODAFL. These military entities are largely involved in Iran’s military efforts in the region – Ms. Mandelker noted, stressing that both entities were also designated under the European Union’s non-proliferation sanctions authorities in 2011.

In addition to such measures, at the end of March the U.S. Treasury also updated its Maritime Advisory of November 2018. Back then, the U.S. administration had warned private companies, and especially shipping companies, about alleged oil-for-terror schemes, in which the Iranian government would ship oil to countries in the Middle East in exchange for money to its military proxies, such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Quds Force. In the March update, the Treasury highlighted the presence of additional risks related to Iranian oil’s shipping to Syria, providing guidance to companies on how to mitigate risks and warning them against conducting business with Iran. 

Such actions – Ms. Mandelker reiterated – are part of the broader U.S. campaign to put “unprecedented maximum pressure” on Iran and its government. The standoff between the United States and Iran seems set to continue at a very high level. 

By Barend ter Haar.

When a man starts shooting around to kill people he doesn’t know, for terroristic purposes or just because he is crazy, he receives all the public attention he is looking for but does not deserve. This poses a challenge for governments.

Will they take a high profile in order to look vigorous and decisive, even when that is exactly what the terrorists hope for, because it heightens their profile too? Or can they withstand that pressure and, while giving high priority to the prevention of such attacks, put these risks into a realistic perspective?

A useful way to put them into a realistic perspective is to look at the reports of the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an institute that was founded in 2007 with a large grant of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This institute produces the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) study, based on a database that includes almost 800 million deaths. 

The aim of this study is to compare the effects of diseases and risks that kill people prematurely and cause ill health. It looks both at the direct causes of death, such as diseases, and at the factors that increase the risk of a disease, such as eating too much salt (3 million deaths in 2017).

We will first look at a selection of the direct causes of death in the world in 2016 (round numbers in thousands and as a percentage of all deaths):

• Heart diseases 17650 32,26 %
• Cancer   8930 16,32 %
• Road incidents   1340   2,45 %
• AIDS   1030   1,89 %
• Suicide     817   1,49 %
• Murder     391   0,71 %
• Conflicts     116   0,21 %
• Terrorism       35   0,06 %
• Natural disasters           7   0,01 %

It should be noted that these are global figures and that they vary significantly by country. Terrorists, for example, are mainly active in countries like Afghanistan and Iraq. In rich countries the dominant risk factors are unhealthy diets, smoking and alcohol, while lack of facilities to wash your hands is only a high risk in very poor countries.

Let us now look at the factors that increase the risk of a premature death. Be aware that when two risks interact, the resulting death appears twice. Somebody who is obese might, for example, do little physical exercise. The deaths caused by these two risk factors should therefore not simply be added up.

Number of deaths by a selection of risk factors in 2016
(round numbers in thousands):

• Smoking 6320
• High Body Mass Index (obesity) 4530
• Outdoor air pollution 4090
• Alcohol use 2810
• Household air pollution 2580
• Diet low in fruit 2360
• Diet low in vegetables 1520
• Low physical activity 1370
• Unsafe sex 1100
• Second hand smoke   884
• No access to hand washing facility   750

The outcome of very recent research is that unhealthy eating habits and air pollution are probably even more deadly than reflected in the figures of 2016. According to these reports unhealthy eating habits account globally for one in every five deaths, while air pollution reduced global life expectancy in 2017 by an average of 20 months. 

So, who are the people that endanger our life? 

When you have the privilege of living in a rich country, the person you have to fear most is the one that makes you smoke and drink and eat unhealthy, such as too little whole grains (3 million deaths in 2017).  And who is that person?

Air pollution and traffic accidents cannot be simply solved by changing our individual lifestyle, but require action at a local, national or even global level. But also these risks are mainly caused by ourselves and people like us. In short, the people we have to fear most are ourselves.

Does this mean that we can ignore terrorists? Of course not, but we should not grant them the privilege of being made more important than they are.

By Guido Lanfranchi.

A few months after the execution of exercise Trident Juncture, NATO is preparing for the annual exercise Baltic Operations, also known as BALTOPS. For the first time, this exercise will feature the presence of the U.S. 2^nd Fleet, under the command of Vice Admiral Andrew Lewis.

The organization phase of exercise Baltic Operations 2019 is nearing its completion, with the Final Planning Conference scheduled in these days in Vilnius, Lithuania. The execution of BALTOPS is not anything new, as the exercise is coming this year to its 47^th iteration. However, for the first time the 2019 edition of the exercise will feature the presence of the U.S. 2^nd Fleet, under the command of Vice Admiral Andrew Lewis. The 2^nd Fleet has been deployed to Europe since summer 2018 – Admiral Lewis explained – on account of the changing security environment, with a focus on operations in the Atlantic and in the Arctic. 

While the 2^nd Fleet is new in the European theatre, it will operate in coordination with a “practiced team of professionals” – Admiral Lewis noted, praising the cooperation between NATO allies in the organization of BALTOPS 2019. In the occasion of NATO’s 70^th anniversary, remembering the importance of such cooperation is all the more salient – Admiral Lewis reminded, focusing in particular on the Baltic states’ contribution to the strength of the Alliance.

These words of praise were widely echoed by U.K. Rear Admiral Andy Burns, Admiral Lewis’ Deputy for BALTOPS 2019, who warmly welcomed the deployment of the U.S. 2^nd Fleet in Europe. Read Admiral Burns underlined how his role as Deputy is a sign of the tight partnership between the U.K. and the U.S., as well as of the commitment of both nations to the security of the Baltic states.

He also provided a brief description of the BALTOPS exercise, which will include the deployment of air, maritime and ground forces from 18 nations, with the aim of improving flexibility and interoperability among different forces.

In a context of changing security scenarios and emerging threats, NATO remains committed to the security of all allied countries, and the security of the Baltic states remain a priority for the Alliance.