Reflections on Eight Years of Collaborative Work and the Future of Chemical Disarmament

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As his eight-year tenure as Director-General of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) draws to a close, H.E. Ambassador Fernando Arias offers his final reflections to Diplomat Magazine. One of the most senior and respected figures within The Hague’s diplomatic community, Ambassador Arias has dedicated more than a decade of service in the Netherlands, including four years as Ambassador of Spain and eight years leading one of the world’s most critical multilateral institutions.

Elected by the Conference of the States Parties representing 193 member states, his leadership has coincided with a historic milestone: the verified destruction of all declared chemical weapons stockpiles worldwide. Yet, as he underscores, the mission is far from complete. In an era marked by geopolitical tensions, emerging technologies, and evolving security threats, the OPCW remains at the forefront of safeguarding international peace and security.

In this exclusive final interview, Ambassador Arias reflects on the Organisation’s achievements, the persistent risks of chemical weapons, and the challenges that lie ahead—offering a compelling perspective on why the OPCW’s work is more essential today than ever before.

H.E. Fernando Arias and King Willem Alexander of the Netherlands.

As the head of the OPCW, could you explain the key successes of the Organisation over the past 30 years?

One of the OPCW’s most notable achievements is its near-universal membership: 193 States Parties, equal to that of the United Nations.

As a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, the Organisation has made a significant contribution to international peace and security through its extensive efforts to eliminate chemical weapons. This has been one of its greatest achievements.

By July 2023, all 72,000 metric tonnes of declared chemical weapons worldwide had been irreversibly destroyed by the possessor States Parties under stringent verification by the OPCW.

Hundreds of international cooperation activities have been conducted by the OPCW over the past 30 years. These initiatives have spanned broad areas, including assistance and protection in case of use of chemical weapons or chemical incidents, technical capacity building on national implementation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (the Convention), and the promotion of peaceful uses of chemistry.

The programmes for enhancing the expertise of customs officials, first responders, investigators and laboratory analysts have been especially valued by States Parties, as has our dedicated Africa Programme, tailor-made to meet the needs of African Member States.

These achievements are the result of the collective vision of the States Parties of a world free of chemical weapons, and of their commitment to the Convention and the OPCW. The Technical Secretariat of the OPCW has played its crucial role by effectively and professionally implementing its mandate.

You mentioned that all declared chemical weapons stockpiles had been irreversibly destroyed by 2023. What issues is the OPCW currently addressing? What are the remaining risks and challenges in achieving a world free from chemical weapons threats?

Although the stockpiled chemical weapons declared by possessor States Parties have all been destroyed, that does not mean that chemical weapons no longer pose a threat to international peace and security.

Currently, we are working with the new Government of Syria on the comprehensive identification and destruction of all components of the Syrian chemical weapons programme left behind by the Assad regime. We are also working together with relevant States Parties to destroy the old and abandoned chemical weapons from the First and Second World Wars, which continue to be discovered in several places.

Apart from that, to provide collective assurances of the adherence to the Convention by all States Parties, we monitor nearly 5,000 chemical research and industrial facilities all over the world, to verify that these facilities are used exclusively for peaceful purposes. We are also working with partners in the international community to prevent chemical terrorism, among other things.

The main challenges fall into two categories: those related to proliferation and re-emergence of chemical weapons; and those related to the emergence of new disruptive technologies.

The Convention bans an entire category of weapons of mass destruction.

Yet, recent conflicts and escalating geopolitical tensions have heightened concerns over continued possible use of chemical weapons on the battlefield.

At the same time, new and emerging technologies present significant challenges, as many of them can be misused in ways that undermine the object and purpose of the Convention, making it possible to acquire, weaponise and use toxic chemicals as weapons, in a faster, easier and more effective way.

Recognising that the Chemical Weapons Convention was negotiated 40 years ago, and that the political and security dynamics as well as the scientific and technological landscape have shifted so much since then, do you believe that the Convention remains effective and sufficient in curbing the chemical weapons threat? Has the OPCW taken any steps to adapt to these developments?

The OPCW is the international organisation tasked with ensuring a chemical weapons‑free world. It is undisputed that chemical weapons are stigmatised and considered abhorrent by the international community. No State has contested the Convention or legitimised the use of chemical weapons. Consequently, there is widespread political support for the work of the Organisation. In spite of the challenges I have mentioned, the Convention remains resilient and technically sound, with a rigorous verification regime.

However, more than 35 years have passed since the Convention was negotiated, and the text is showing its age. The global political tensions make it extremely difficult to introduce substantive amendments to the Convention. Nevertheless, there have been successful efforts to keep pace with scientific developments. For instance, in response to the use of a variant of the novichok nerve agent in 2018, the States Parties decided to amend the schedules of chemicals subject to OPCW verification, to incorporate a number of new novichok-related chemicals in the coverage of the Convention. I believe more technical changes of this nature will be needed in the future.

More broadly, the Secretariat and the States Parties continue to assess the implementation of the Convention every five years at a Review Conference. The Scientific Advisory Board also provides advice to me on ways that the Convention can be adapted and strengthened. Such mechanisms have proven effective at keeping the Convention fit for purpose in a changing world.

Could you elaborate on new technologies and their implications for the OPCW? How might technological advancements affect the Organisation’s work in the future?

New and emerging technologies have a direct impact on the functioning of the Organisation. AI, in particular, improves our laboratory capabilities at the OPCW Centre for Chemistry and Technology, and also has uses in various inspections, investigations, forensics and sampling techniques involving sophisticated scientific methods.

However, these benefits co-exist with risks. To cite some examples, formulas for new and extremely toxic chemicals can now be generated quickly, easily and cheaply, without the need for extensive manual research and laboratory capacity. Fortunately, for the time being, the step between obtaining the formula and the material production of the chemicals remains complicated. Nonetheless, we must be alert to the reality that these technologies could make it easier for malicious actors to develop and deploy new toxic chemicals as weapons. Equally concerning are technologies such as drones, which can be used as delivery systems for toxic chemicals, extending their reach and causing harm on a wider scale.

New technologies also enable the design of new and powerful laboratories in a small space, making detection difficult in case of illegal activities. 3D printing allows the manufacturing of equipment to take place locally, thereby avoiding the scrutiny usually performed by control regimes that regulate international trade.

Automation enables laboratories to operate with minimal staff, reducing the risks of information leaks and making clandestine illegal activities harder to detect.

These are but a few examples, and there are many more that affect the threat spectrum the Organisation faces.

In this context, could you share insights about the recently inaugurated OPCW ChemTech Centre? What kind of activities are conducted there?

The Centre for Chemistry and Technology (the ChemTech Centre), which was inaugurated in the presence of His Majesty King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands in May 2023, was the Organisation’s response to challenges posed by scientific and technological developments as well as the evolving political context. Its state-of-the-art facilities and capabilities bolster our ability to monitor and react to any potential risk of the re-emergence of chemical weapons. The Centre also serves as a hub for maintaining and improving the skills and knowledge of our experts.

Today, the ChemTech Centre is an invaluable platform where we conduct the technical work and training programmes I have mentioned. It also constitutes a powerful tool at the disposal of the States Parties, with significant potential to further enhance national implementation of the Convention in all its aspects.

Given everything you have mentioned, what are your thoughts on the future of the OPCW in this turbulent age?

When the Convention was being negotiated, some founding fathers of the Organisation thought with good reason that the OPCW would have completed its most fundamental role with the completion of the destruction of declared stockpiles. They anticipated that, upon reaching this milestone, the Organisation could be reduced to a very small Secretariat, or even be closed. The unexpected reality is that with rising geopolitical tensions and the risks posed by new and emerging technologies, this Organisation’s work will continue well into the future. In effect, the OPCW is now more necessary than ever.

Ambassador Bucci pays inaugural visit to Saxony

10 June 2026, Dresden, Free State of Saxony, Germany: The Premier of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, received the Ambassador of the Italian Republic in Germany, Fabrizio Bucci, for a bilateral meeting at the Hall of Coat of Arms in the Saxon State Chancellery. 

The Ambassador paid a two-day visit to Dresden, the capital of the federal state of Saxony. 

Cooperation at the local and regional levels was the focus of discussions with the Mayor of Dresden, Dirk Hilbert and the Premier of the Free State of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer.
Relations with this federal state are forward-looking: Sardinia and Saxony are jointly bidding to host the Einstein Telescope — one of Europe’s most significant research projects. For Ambassador Bucci, the collaboration between Sardinia and Dresden is “proof of the innovative strength of regions that, while geographically, historically, and culturally distinct, are working together on cutting-edge scientific projects.”

During his visit, the Ambassador toured the Technical University of Dresden and Professor Gianaurelio Cuniberti’s laboratory, met with business representatives, visited the Old Masters Picture Gallery, and stopped by a school to speak with students.

For further information 

State Chancellery of the Free State of Saxony: https://www.ministerpraesident.sachsen.de/antrittsbesuch-des-italienischen-botschafters-18904.html

Ambassador Bucci received by NRW Premier Wüst 

Friday, 22 May 2025, Berlin, Germany: NRW Premier Hendrik Wüst received the Ambassador of the Italian Republic in Germany, Fabrizio Bucci, for a bilateral meeting at the representation of Germany’s most populous federal state in the German capital. The exchange focused on the close relations between the two countries and shared interests regarding the new German federal government.

During the encounter, Premier Wüst said: “Italy is a key partner for North Rhine-Westphalia. Together, we are committed to a strong and capable European Union. Italy plays a pivotal role regarding migration, particularly as a country with an EU external border. North Rhine-Westphalia’s position is clear: on the issue of migration, we need a European solution based on solidarity, and we must not leave countries of first entry to face the challenge alone. North Rhine-Westphalia and Italy also collaborate closely on future-oriented topics such as artificial intelligence and its implementation in public administration—notably within the framework of our regional partnership with Piedmont. We intend to further intensify these joint efforts in the future.”

Luncheon held in honour of Ambassador Bucci by Premier Wüst and Nathanael Liminski, Head of State Chancellery, NRW. Picture by LV-b-nadine-zilliges.

Italy is an important partner for North Rhine-Westphalia. With a trade volume of 25.4 billion euros (2024), Italy ranks seventh among North Rhine-Westphalia’s trading partners, following Poland and preceding Austria. Around 650 Italian subsidiaries employing 27,000 people are based in North Rhine-Westphalia. More than 142,000 Italians live here—representing one in four of all Italians living in Germany. There are currently 17 town twinnings between North Rhine-Westphalia and Italy, including Cologne with Turin, Unna with Pisa, and Oberhausen with Iglesias.

Ambassador Bucci was accredited as head of mission of Italian Republic in the Federal Republic of Germany on 31 January 2025 at Bellevue Castle in a ceremony headed by the Federal President Dr. Frank-Walter Steinmeier

For further information 

State Chancellery of North Rhine-Westphalia: https://www.land.nrw/pressemitteilung/ministerpraesident-hendrik-wuest-empfaengt-den-botschafter-italiens-fabrizio-bucci

Prince Abdul Mateen to lead the Bruneian Foreign Ministry

Thursday, 4 June 2026: His Majesty The Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of the State of Brunei Darussalam reshuffled his cabinet, appointing HRH Prince Abdul Mateen Bolkiah as the country’s chief of diplomacy. Prince Abdul Mateen thus became the third foreign minister of Brunei since the country regained its independence from the UK in 1984. Prince Abdul Mateen is deputised by Erywan Yusof, who has been in office as Second Minister of Foreign Affairs since 30 January 2018. 

Foreign Minister Bolkiah (born 10 August 1991) has a military background. Prince Abdul Mateen attended the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst in the United Kingdom in 2010 and was commissioned into the Royal Brunei Air Force after graduation. He was later transferred to the Royal Brunei Armed Forces, where he currently serves as a Lieutenant Colonel. 

In 2011, he was appointed to the Privy Council and became Deputy Chairman of the Department of State Customs, marking an early entry into formal state responsibilities.

Since then, he has regularly represented the Bruneian Royal House at major international and ceremonial events. He attended the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Malta in 2015 on behalf of his father, later joining the Sultan again at the 2022 summit in Rwanda. He has also appeared at high-profile occasions such as the inauguration of the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies’ new building in 2017, the 2019 enthronement of Emperor Naruhito in Japan, the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II in 2022, and the coronation of King Charles III in 2023.

His role has also extended to regional diplomacy. In 2018, he took part in Brunei-Jordan meetings in Amman that produced agreements on infrastructure, tourism, defence, and customs cooperation. He later accompanied the Sultan to the 2019 ASEM summit in Brussels and the ASEAN summit in Thailand, before appearing at further royal and state events in Jordan, Malaysia, and the Philippines in the years that followed. For instance, in May 2026, Abdul Mateen Bolkiah again joined His Majesty The Sultan, representing Brunei in the 48th ASEAN Summit held in Cebu City, Philippines.

Prince Abdul Mateen is joined in the new cabinet by his half-brother, HRH Prince Abdul Malik, who was appointed for the first time as minister in the Prime Minister’s Office. Crown Prince Al-Muhtadee Billah, meanwhile, has retained his position as senior minister at the Prime Minister’s Office.

The shift is providing valuable experience in government to senior yet younger members of the House of Bolkiah, reinforcing perceptions that the next generation of the Bolkiah dynasty is being prepared to take on greater responsibilities as the Sultan, who serves as Head of State and Government, and as the Minister of Defence and Minister Finance and Economy, is about to reach the age of 80 years old on 15 July 2026. 

Another notable feature of the reshuffle is the creation of three coordinating ministers, a move that has drawn comparisons with Singapore’s governance model. Brunei has close ties with Singapore as the Brunei dollar and the Singapore dollar are pegged at a 1:1 par value under the two nations’ longstanding Currency Interchangeability Agreement. 

The move also addresses a practical challenge. Achieving the goals of Wawasan 2035 (the programme for achieving an economy not reliant on oil and gas) requires close cooperation among the ministries responsible for the economy, education, manpower, investment, digitisation, infrastructure, and social development. Although Brunei has long advocated a ‘whole-of-government’ approach, implementation has often been fragmented across agencies. The new coordinating ministers appear to be intended to bridge these gaps and accelerate decision-making. The latter reform is relevant in a time when Brunei’s oil and gas reserves may wane away in less than thirty years.

For further information 

https://www.mfa.gov.bn/site/home.aspx

Azerbaijan’s Nasimi Aghayev hosts National Day reception in Berlin

26 May 2026, Berlin, Germany: To mark its Independence Day, the Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in Germany hosted a festive reception at the Azerbaijani Cultural Centre located in Berlin-Tiergarten.

Around 400 guests attended the event, including high-ranking representatives of the Federal Foreign Office, members of the German Bundestag, ambassadors from numerous nations, and prominent figures from politics, business, academia, culture, and the media.

Following the national anthems of Azerbaijan and Germany, performed by an ensemble from the Berlin Symphony Orchestra, Ambassador Nasimi Aghayev welcomed the guests. In his address, he recalled the founding of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic on May 28, 1918 — the first parliamentary and secular republic in the Muslim world.

Ambassador Aghayev highlighted Azerbaijan’s development into a strong and internationally respected state, as well as the country’s strategic role as a bridge between Europe and Asia. He also emphasised the dynamic evolution of German-Azerbaijani relations.

Addressing developments in the South Caucasus, the Ambassador spoke of a “new reality” gradually emerging through dialogue and cooperation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Pointing to trade between the two countries as a sign of growing confidence-building, he underscored the importance of sustainable peace for the region.

Ambassador Christoph Israng, Head of the Europe Department at the Federal Foreign Office, conveyed congratulations on Azerbaijan’s Independence Day on behalf of German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul. He acknowledged the strong bilateral ties and emphasised Azerbaijan’s importance for stability and cooperation in the South Caucasus.

The evening was accompanied by music from the jazz group “Caucasian Consort.” The reception concluded with a selection of Azerbaijani culinary specialities.

For further information 

https://berlin.mfa.gov.az/de/news/musteqillik-gunu-almaniyada-tenteneli-sekilde-qeyd-olunub

The International Day for Dialogue among Civilizations

By John Dunkelgrün

On 7 June 2024, the United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution A/RES/78/286, declaring June 10th as the International Day for Dialogue among Civilizations. The resolution, originally proposed by the People’s Republic of China, was quickly seconded by eighty nations.

On June 10th of this year, the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Netherlands, in partnership with Diplomat Magazine, hosted an event at the Peace Palace to commemorate and highlight this vital initiative for the second time.

At a time when the global order that has brought unprecedented prosperity and well-being to billions is threatened by war, mass migration, and climate change, it is easy to grow cynical about such efforts. Yet, to quote Sir Winston Churchill:

“To talk-talk-talk is always better than to war-war-war.”

International Day for Dialogue among Civilizations, second anniversary. Peace Palace 10 June 2026.

China clearly takes this initiative very seriously. The Honorable Mr. Wang Yi, China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, recorded a keynote speech for the occasion that was broadcast to Chinese embassies worldwide, anchoring the event at the Peace Palace. He was followed by H.E. Mr. Shen Bo, Ambassador to the Netherlands, and H.E. Mr. Vusi Philemon Madonsela, Ambassador of South Africa.

All three speakers underscored that dialogue is the only viable tool to bridge the immense confidence gap that has widened across the globe. As ambassador Shen mentioned “Civilizations may differ fundamentally, but no single culture holds a monopoly on wisdom. Just as football fans admire the vastly different styles of Messi, Ronaldo, and Mbappé, the global community must learn to appreciate cultural diversity as an asset rather than a threat.”

H.E. Mr. Vusi Philemon Madonsela, Ambassador of South Africa.

To illustrate this fusion of civilizations, the embassy welcomed Dutch singer Cindy van Minnen, award winner of the “Water Cube Cup” Chinese Song Contest who performed “Left Hand Points to the Moon” a beautifully soothing Chinese melody.

Additionally, Mr. Jin Yinfei, Director of the Zhejiang Art Museum, presented a fascinating artwork; an object resembling a classical French marble bust, crafted by a Chinese paper-art master into an amazingly morphable sculpture.

Whether the International Day for Dialogue among Civilizations will have a substantive effect on global tensions remains to be seen. However, every effort to encourage nations to speak to one another—and to truly understand one another rather than fight—is inherently worthwhile. It is a great pity that this event, much like the major Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions in Kazakhstan, receives so little media attention.

Alexandra Hill Tinoco: Carrying El Salvador’s Voice to the World

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The Legacy of José Gustavo Guerrero and the New Era of Salvadoran Diplomacy

At the historic Peace Palace in The Hague, home of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), a distinguished ceremony paid tribute to one of the most remarkable figures in the history of international law. In the presence of H.E. Judge Yuji Iwasawa, President of the International Court of Justice, and H.E. Agustín Vázquez Gómez, Ambassador of the Republic of El Salvador to the Kingdom of the Netherlands, a bust of Dr. José Gustavo Guerrero (1876–1958), the first President of the International Court of Justice, was unveiled in permanent recognition of his extraordinary contribution to international justice.

The bust, donated by the Government of El Salvador, honours a jurist whose influence transcended national borders and whose work helped shape the foundations of modern international law. Yet the ceremony was also a deep focus of contemporary El Salvador and of the diplomatic vision currently being advanced by the country’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, H.E. Alexandra Hill Tinoco.

Minister Hill Tinoco travelled to The Hague to participate personally in the tribute, underlining the importance her government places on preserving and shaping the country’s diplomatic heritage. For El Salvador, José Gustavo Guerrero represents far more than a distinguished historical figure. He symbolizes the ability of a small nation to contribute decisively to the international legal order.

“He elevated the Foreign Ministry to the highest levels of international law in El Salvador. He was the first President of the International Court of Justice and positioned El Salvador within the global legal elite. His legacy lies in being the Foreign Minister with the greatest international impact in the country’s history,” Minister Hill Tinoco remarked during the ceremony.

The tribute also highlighted a broader diplomatic transformation underway in El Salvador. Under the leadership of President Nayib Bukele and Foreign Minister Alexandra Hill Tinoco, the country has embarked on a more assertive international strategy aimed at strengthening its global presence and redefining how El Salvador is perceived abroad.

Bust of Dr Gustavo Guerrero, First President of the International Court of Justice.

For decades, Salvadoran foreign policy was characterized by caution and discretion. While it fulfilled its multilateral responsibilities and maintained constructive international relations, it rarely sought to shape international debates or project a distinctive national narrative. Today, that approach has evolved.

Hill Tinoco has overseen an active diplomatic agenda across the United Nations, the European Union, the United States, the Middle East, and Asia. Her foreign policy priorities have focused on strengthening relations with strategic partners, promoting investment and economic opportunities, engaging the Salvadoran diaspora, and advancing a more visible international profile for the country.

In many respects, the Minister’s diplomatic vision echoes the example established by José Gustavo Guerrero more than half a century ago. Guerrero demonstrated that intellectual leadership, legal excellence, and principled diplomacy could elevate El Salvador onto the world stage. Today’s foreign policy seeks to build upon that legacy by ensuring that the country participates actively in shaping international discussions rather than merely observing them.

This transformation can be observed through several dimensions. First, El Salvador has sought to recover and strengthen its diplomatic voice. The country increasingly presents its own perspectives on issues such as security, governance, and development, responding directly to international debates and criticism with a clearly articulated national position.

Second, Salvadoran diplomacy has embraced strategic diversification. Traditional partnerships remain important, but engagement has expanded significantly across new regions, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, reflecting a pragmatic approach aimed at attracting investment, fostering technological cooperation, and broadening economic opportunities.

Third, the government has recognized the growing importance of international perception. In a world where narratives influence political and economic outcomes, diplomacy increasingly involves communicating national achievements and defending national interests in the global information environment.

Such a visible foreign policy inevitably attracts scrutiny and debate. Yet it also reflects a country that is increasingly determined to define itself on its own terms. As Minister Hill Tinoco has demonstrated throughout her tenure, international relevance requires both engagement and confidence.

Ambassador Agustín Vázquez Gómez and Judge Leonardo Brant.

During the ceremony, Ambassador Agustín Vázquez Gómez emphasized that the initiative to honour Judge Guerrero became possible thanks to the commitment and vision of the Minister of Foreign Affairs.

“Gracias a la visión y determinación de la Canciller Hill, este homenaje al Juez José Gustavo Guerrero ha sido posible. Su decidido impulso personal y su visita al Palacio de la Paz en septiembre de 2024 marcaron el inicio de este acto de memoria y reconocimiento histórico.”

The Ambassador further highlighted Guerrero’s universal legacy, describing him as a statesman who successfully combined scholarship with action, patriotism with multilateralism, and firmness with empathy.

Addressing the audience, Ambassador Vázquez Gómez reaffirmed El Salvador’s commitment to the principles that guided Guerrero throughout his distinguished career.

“We want future generations of judges, lawyers, diplomats and visitors who walk through these halls to see in the face of José Gustavo Guerrero not only the image of a great jurist, but also a reflection of the values for which he fought tirelessly. Today, from El Salvador, we reaffirm our commitment to the Charter of the United Nations and to the defence of international law as a foundation of the global order.”

The ceremony concluded as both a tribute to the past and a statement about the future. The permanent presence of José Gustavo Guerrero’s bust within the Peace Palace serves as a reminder of El Salvador’s enduring contribution to international justice. At the same time, it reflects the aspirations of a nation that, under the leadership of Alexandra Hill Tinoco, seeks to project its voice, strengthen its influence, and play an increasingly active role in international affairs.

In many ways, the connection between Guerrero and Hill Tinoco is symbolic of El Salvador’s diplomatic journey: a country whose historical achievements continue to inspire a modern foreign policy built on visibility, engagement, and strategic ambition. As El Salvador navigates an increasingly complex international landscape, the challenge will be to sustain that voice with consistency, results, and vision. The unveiling at the Peace Palace suggests that the country intends to do precisely that.

Military Power Meets Economic Reality

Why Trump Cannot Force Tehran to Yield

By Alek Karci Kurniawan

One of the enduring flaws in geopolitical analysis is the tendency to assess wars primarily through their military costs. For the United States, however, the decisive costs are often economic and political rather than military. The number of missiles launched or targets destroyed matters less than the consequences that follow.

In a confrontation with Iran, the critical arena extends beyond the Middle East. It lies in global energy markets and, ultimately, in the spending power of American households.

Around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption to this narrow chokepoint quickly unsettles energy markets. As tensions rise, oil prices follow. Higher crude prices feed into higher fuel costs, including in America.

For most Americans, events in the Gulf are remote. Petrol prices are not. Voters may pay little attention to the tactical outcome of military operations overseas, but they notice the cost of filling their cars. In domestic politics, fuel prices often carry greater weight than battlefield successes abroad.

That creates a dilemma for President Donald Trump. Pressure on Iran was intended to demonstrate American resolve and compel Tehran to accept Washington’s terms. Yet the economic consequences have proved harder to control than the military ones. Iran retains the capacity to impose costs without matching American power directly, while higher energy prices are felt by American consumers.

The result is a familiar asymmetry. The United States can project military force across the region, but it cannot insulate itself from the economic effects of instability. A campaign designed to strengthen deterrence risks generating political pressure at home.

The contradiction becomes more pronounced when China enters the picture. For much of the past decade, Beijing has been treated as America’s principal strategic rival. Trade restrictions, technology controls and calls for economic decoupling have all reflected that view. Yet the Iran crisis highlights the limits of confrontation as a governing framework.

China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil and possesses economic leverage over Tehran that few other countries can match. Any effort to stabilise energy flows, reduce tensions or encourage compromise inevitably involves Beijing. In practice, a crisis centred on Iran increases the value of Chinese cooperation. This points to a broader reality. Military superiority does not automatically translate into political influence. The United States may retain overwhelming military advantages, but it cannot by itself determine the behaviour of every actor that matters. Nor can it guarantee stable energy markets without accommodating the interests of other major powers.

For decades after the Cold War, American strategy rested on the assumption that military primacy would underpin political leadership. That assumption is becoming harder to sustain. The more interconnected the global economy becomes, the less any single power can manage systemic risks alone.

The Iran crisis illustrates this shift. The harder Washington pressures Tehran, the greater the risk of disruption to energy markets. The greater the disruption, the more important China’s role becomes. And the more Washington relies on Beijing’s cooperation, the more difficult it becomes to sustain the notion of an international order managed largely on American terms.

Trump therefore faces a problem more complex than defeating an adversary. He must balance pressure on Iran, manage an often unpredictable Israel, contain economic fallout at home and preserve political support among voters increasingly sensitive to the cost of living.

The available options are all unattractive. De-escalation could ease pressure on energy markets but may be portrayed as a concession. Escalation would deepen economic risks and may ultimately require cooperation from China, a dependence that sits uneasily with Washington’s narrative of strategic competition.

Maintaining the status quo offers little relief. Escalation risks deepening the global energy crisis and increasing political costs at home, while preserving the current situation merely prolongs uncertainty for markets, policymakers and consumers alike.

The broader lesson is that power in the twenty-first century is constrained not only by rivals but also by interdependence. A conflict intended to reaffirm American dominance has instead underscored how much that dominance depends on the cooperation of others.

Trump’s room for manoeuvre is narrowing. The objective of forcing Iran to accept Washington’s terms has collided with geopolitical and economic realities that military power alone cannot resolve. A return to the status quo ante is unlikely. Reconstructing the framework of restraint once provided by the 2015 nuclear agreement is harder still, not least because Washington itself dismantled it. What remains is not a clear route to victory, but a search for an exit that limits the costs of a conflict whose strategic benefits are increasingly uncertain.

About the author:

Alek Karci Kurniawan is a Master’s Student at the Faculty of Economics, Khon Kaen University, Thailand; Indonesian Delegate to the International Youth Forum at the United Nations.

The National Day of Russia: Continuity Through the Centuries

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By H.E. Mr. Vladimir Tarabrin, Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the Kingdom of the Netherlands

For Russia, June 12 is a special date – the National Day of Russia. This day symbolizes the continuity of modern Russian statehood throughout history. For millions of our citizens, this Day serves as a reminder of the importance of national unity.

As President of Russia Vladimir Putin stated: «Over the course of more than a thousand years, our statehood has passed through different eras, including brutal invasions by enemies, fragmentation, and the tragedies of internal strife. Yet each such difficult period ultimately ended in the rebirth of the Fatherland. Heroic generations of our people overcame hardships and adversity, endured every trial, created and enhanced the greatness of our Motherland, and brought glory to their names».

Today, Russia seeks to strengthen its position on the global stage. Despite unprecedented external pressure and sanctions, our economy demonstrates resilience and the ability to adapt effectively to new conditions. Sound macroeconomic policies and the development of domestic production help ensure economic stability and the implementation of long-term national objectives.

Particular attention is being devoted to strengthening technological and industrial sovereignty. Russia maintains leading positions in a number of strategic sectors, including energy, nuclear industry, space technologies, agriculture, and the defense-industrial complex.

The nuclear industry serves as a prime example. Russia is the first country in the world to actively develop fourth-generation nuclear technologies aimed at closing the nuclear fuel cycle. Furthermore, it is the only country in the world with a fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers that utilize nuclear technology to maintain a permanent national presence in the Arctic. This allows for year-round navigation on the Northern Sea Route, one of the most promising trade routes of the 21st century.

The Russian Federation remains one of the world’s largest suppliers of food products and energy resources, making a significant contribution to global food and energy security. Amid instability in international markets, our country continues to fulfill its obligations to partners and advocates equitable economic cooperation free from the politicization of trade and sanctions.

An integral part of Russia’s national identity remains its immense cultural and scientific heritage. Russian scientists, writers, composers, and artists have long been a part of the world’s cultural legacy.

Throughout its history, Russia has evolved as a country of dialogue among cultures, where the diversity of traditions and identities serves as a source of development and internal resilience. It is precisely this historical experience that enables our country to consistently advocate for the establishment of a fair multipolar system of international relations based on equal and indivisible security, respect for the cultural and civilizational identity of nations, and the right of every state to independently determine their own paths of development.

As stated in the Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation approved by President Vladimir Putin, our key priority is “striving for a system of international relations that guarantees reliable security, preservation of its cultural and civilizational identity, and equal opportunities for development for all states, regardless of their geographical location, territorial size, demographic profile, resource base, military potential, or political, economic and social systems”.

Russia is actively developing relations with the countries of Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, while strengthening cooperation within BRICS, the SCO, and other multilateral frameworks. Expanding ties with Global South countries reflects objective trends in the modern world and contributes to a more stable and balanced international system.

At the same time, Russia consistently advocates for maintaining open dialogue and seeking diplomatic solutions to international problems. Russian diplomacy has traditionally been guided by the principle of considering the interests of all parties and preventing escalation of conflicts.

Preserving the memory of the Victory over Nazi Germany during the Second World War is of particular importance for Russian society. It was achieved through the unparalleled courage and self-sacrifice of millions of Soviet citizens. This memory must never be forgotten!

12 June symbolizes the continuity of our nation’s history, which has endured and overcome many challenges throughout the centuries. Modern Russia looks confidently toward the future, relying on its own resources, historical experience, and the potential of its people. Strengthening sovereignty, ensuring security, improving citizens’ quality of life and developing international cooperation on the basis of equality remain key objectives of our country.

Visit of the diplomatic corps accredited to Germany to the Saarland 

Wednesday, 3 June 2026, The Saarland, Germany: Federal President Dr. Frank-Walter Steinmeier visited the Saarland accompanied by foreign ambassadors serving in Germany and high-ranking representatives of international organizations. In the Saarland, he was welcomed by the federal state’s premier, Anke Rehlinger

Ambassadors Marika Linntam (Estonia), Veronika Wand-Danielsson (Sweden) and President Dr. Steinmeier – Picture by Embassy of Sweden in Germany.


Here in Saarland, people know that it is possible to cheer wholeheartedly for the state, root for Germany, and—at the same time—be a passionate European. Foreign ambassadors serving in Germany were able to see this for themselves during their visit to the state alongside Federal President Steinmeier.

Dr. Frank Walter Steinmeier and Ambassador Nasimi Aghayev (Azerbaijan) – Picture by Embassy of Azerbaijan in Germany.

In an address at the Völklingen Ironworks, the Federal President noted that Saarland benefits from the European Single Market and cross-border cooperation, while focusing on innovation and the transformation of its economy. Such trips represent more than just a day spent together; they embody active exchange, mutual curiosity, and the ultimate realization that openness makes us all stronger than isolation.

Ambassadors Yadir Salazar Mejía (Colombia), Louise Nzanga Ramazani (Democratic Republic of Congo), Maria Isabel de Resende Encoge (Angola). Staatskanzlei des Saarlandes, Jennifer Weyland.

First, they visited the electrical engineering company Hager in Blieskastel. Next, they went to research institutions on the Saarland University campus in Saarbrücken. Afterwards, the Federal President invited the diplomats to lunch at the Völklingen Ironworks. In the afternoon, the tour continued to Mettlach, where it visited the porcelain manufacturer Villeroy & Boch.

For further information 

German Federal Presidency: https://www.bundespraesident.de/SharedDocs/Berichte/DE/Frank-Walter-Steinmeier/2026/06/260603-Diplomatenausflug.html

Speech of the Federal President in Völklingen: https://www.bundespraesident.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Reden/2026/06/260603-ME-Diplo-Reise-ENGL.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=1