By Nika Salvetti and Prof. Andre Nijhof. Is there a positive connection between these two terms? Especially when we hear news about the wrong doing of companies operating in complex contexts? There is a very simple answer also supported by vast research findings, which is a positive answer, just because today companies cannot afford to do bad without having been noticed thus without facing serious consequences which would undermine their image, reputation and overall legitimacy. The role of business in society has changed. On one side businesses are expanding their operations and activities outside the traditional markets, along a more complex global supply chain which increases unpredictability and uncertainty increasing business risks; on the other side society is more aware of their actions and impacts and it is demanding more responsible behaviours and practical solutions to address common social, economic and environmental challenges (Prandi and Lozano, 2010). As the McKinsey report (2010) stresses, busineses today are challenged by the changing context in which businesses operate, from traditional and established, to non traditional and complex business environment; by a progressive stress on natural resources (i.e. water) which threaten their availability; by the increasing complexity of socio-economic and environmental global problems, i.e. climate change, structural unemployment, disproportionate urbanization, insecurity, which raise the societal pressure on businesses to act and provide innovative solutions (McKinsey, 2010).

While operating in complex settings, such as conflict affected areas and fragile states[1], businesses are more exposed to issues related to human rights, sustainable development and peace building (UNGC, 2010). Usually businesses operate in complex settings due to the opportunity of the easy access and exploitation of natural resources, cheap labour and a new and large market, often ignoring the high costs and risks associated to the increase of uncontrolled insecurity, lack of good governance and abuse of human rights (Anderson, Markides and Kupp, 2010). If we look at the textile industry, for example, the famous Western brands have no interest to get trapped in a negative campaign which boycott their operations caused by the irresponsible behaviours of their local providers to not respect the basic rules and regulations in relation to labour and/or environmental rights. The recent accident in Turkey, forecasted by BBC worldwide, denouncing local garments’ factories to exploit Syrian refugees’ girls by providing very bad working conditions, had an immediate reaction internationally prompting one of the retailer companies to adopt a remediation plan with also the option to terminate the contract, if immediate labour adjustments would not take place. This is just an example of how today the communication becomes a clear weapon against irresponsible behaviours. But the point to address is another. Why should we wait for these ‘accidents’ to occur to prompt a more responsible reaction of the companies? What about preventive and conscious business measures to establish the foundation of peaceful and responsible relationships? Recognizing that the primary responsibility of restoring stability, security and promoting development lies with the legitimate Government, we believe that a more active and responsible participation of businesses in contributing to peace and sustainable development in complex environments is expected. Businesses are today seen as a potential partner for building peace while contributing to sustainable development and stability (UNGC, 2010). To fulfil such exigent tasks, businesses have to recognize the relevant role they can play in such complex environment, ensuring sustainable economic growth while concurrently mitigating social and environmental impacts. In fact they are the engine for jobs’ creation, local economic growth through the potential promotion of inclusive and local businesses. They can promote better relationships between different stakeholders and guide and support local governments in addressing and solving social and environmental problems. Moreover they can contribute to the national economic growth through their capital investments and tax revenues. However if their contributions are not aligned with the principles of responsible investments as stressed by the UN Global Compact (2010), the OECD guidelines for Multinationals, the ILO convention on labour rights, the Business & Human Rights nexus promoted by the Ruggie Report[2], they can easily contribute to the exacerbation of conflict manifested by violent societal upraises, workers’ strikes and boycotts, societal polarization which might lead to a worst case scenario of civil conflict. Getting to know the local context, its challenges and opportunities, the roles and level of influence played by the different stakeholders, might be a first step to review business strategies in order to gain long term financial returns by joining collective efforts to address the major local socio-economic and environmental challenges (Davis and Franks, 2011)[3]. Overall businesses have to realize that the costs related to conflict and instability is much higher than the ‘costs’ of building and keeping peace thus sustainable development (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2012). —————— About the authors: Phd Cand. Nika Salvetti, Nyenrode University. Email: N.Salvetti@nyenrode.nl Programme Leader Business & Peace. UPEACE Centre The Hague. Email: nsalvetti@upeace.org (for more information about the programme on Business & Peace please check our website www.upeace.nl) Prof. Andre Nijhof,  Nyenrode University. Email: A.Nijhof@nyenrode.nl ——————– [1] A fragile state is a low-income country characterized by weak state capacity and/or weak state legitimacy leaving citizens vulnerable to a range of shocks. Conflict affected areas are those in which significant socio-economic disruptions lead to weak governance, extensive damage to infrastructure, and disruption of social provision. ADB, 2012. [2] United Nations Global Compact (UNGC)’s principles; OECD [3] Davis, R. and Franks, D.M., 2011. The costs of conflict with local communities in the extractive industry. Published for the first international Seminar on Social Responsibility in Mining. Oct. 2016. Santiago de Chile.  

By Jhr. Alexander W. Beelaerts van Blokland. ——————- About the author: Jhr. Alexander W. Beelaerts van Blokland LL.M., Justice (Judge) in the Court of Appeal and Special Advisor International Affairs, appointed by the Mayor and Aldermen of The Hague. a.beelaerts@planet.nl

An Adi elder of Siskin village crossing the hanging bridge over the river Siang. In the dawn-lit mountains on the border of India and China by the river Siang, the indigenous Adi tribe face a confluence of issues. By Joor Baruah. “It is never about resolving differences and working together. Never! It is always about ‘India’ and ‘China’,” mourns an elder from Siskin village as he crosses a bridge close to the border of India and China. Every year, the Adi community collectively weaves these bamboo bridges across the pristine river Siang. The Siang originates in Tibet, elegantly flows through the Himalayas, enters the northeast Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh (also known as “land of the dawn-lit mountains”), and, like a sacred thread, connects the tribes of the region, especially the Adi villages around the old town of Pasighat. The Adi tribe is unique in their use of shamanic chants about their origin mythologies, animistic rituals around nature, and amicable resolution of disputes in their traditional courts.

The people here have always faced conflicts. In 1962, soon after the Tibetan Uprising of 1959 when India granted asylum to the Dalai Lama, the Chinese army invaded this area of Arunachal Pradesh, on the pretext of a disputed Himalayan border. Beyond being subjected to territorial interest, these indigenous people of the hills were struggling to build bridges with the people of the valley. “The Assamese in the valley used to call us Abhors, meaning uncontrolled savages. The British also continued calling us savages. We revolted; we wanted to be called Adi. In 1972 this area, the Northeast Frontier Agency (NEFA), became a Union Territory of India and, in 1987, a state. From then on we are Adi. Adi means hills. People of the hills,” explains Oshang Ering, a respected Adi elder and the first matriculate of the tribe. With the memories of the 1962 Sino-Indian War still fresh, China continues to reassert its territorial claim. “We are a part of India. Though there is a strong history of neglect and alienation, Arunachal Pradesh and this Northeastern region is a part of India. Why will we part? If by chance China invades us again, I will be the first to run ahead and fight,” says the leader of the vegetable sellers in the women-driven Pasighat market. It is apparent that the Adi people want to be left alone. “We are generally cooperative people but during wars, we can be fierce warriors. However, we don’t fight unless it is decided in our Kebang (traditional court),” says Ering calmly. “Our Kebang is the perfect form of democracy. Perhaps democracy was born here,” states Kalim Borang, a cultural analyst and writer, with beaming pride. Unfortunately, the Kebang is not consulted about decisions regarding Adi land and now water. On the Chinese side of the border, where the Siang is called Tsangpo, multiple mega dams have been built. On the Indian side, there are plans to build even more. Flowing through the land of the Adis, the Siang meets the rivers Lohit and Dibang downstream to form the mighty river Brahmaputra that touches the lives of millions of people as it flows through the Assam valley.

The Siang is now the site of a dam war. There seem to be no dialogue between India and China. “Well-strategized run-of-the-river can help. But if the dams on Brahmaputra and its tributaries are not planned well, the flora and fauna of the entire region is at risk. There can be a tsunami every night,” says environmentalist Pradip Bhuyan, whose activism and petition resulted in the Green Tribunal ordering a detailed assessment of the dams. “These dams are dangerous. We have our usual catastrophic floods in June and July. During that time if China opens the dams, then even without missiles, the Assamese people will be destroyed,” says Roti Pegu, a boatman ferrying people across the Brahmaputra, between Assam and Arunachal. In a few years, the 3.07-mile (4.94 km) Bogibeel Bridge connecting Assam and Arunachal will be complete and Roti, along with many other boatmen, will lose their livelihood. Perhaps the building of the bridge influenced India’s current government’s decision to include Pasighat as a potential smart city in its development agenda. The unending line of posts being constructed for the bridge seems to represent the vanishing point of indigeneity. There is already an ongoing migration, both legal and illegal, to this tribal land. The Adis’ indigenous identity, a microcosm of northeast India’s more than two hundred ethnic and tribal communities, is under threat. The Adi culture and way of life are fast changing. The animistic Donyi Polo (sun and moon God) rituals are being forgotten and the Miri (priests) who can chant the Abang (mythological chanting/oral history) are becoming rare.

“Adi does not have a script. It is an oral language. Young people today do not know how to speak Adi. The children of the rich people do not study here. They study far away. When they visit, they speak English and Hindi, though they are Adis. If we speak in Adi, we are stupid. If they can speak in English and Hindi we are stupid. That is what is happening. They forget their own language,” say the elders of Yagrun village over a Solung (Adi planting festival) dinner. With the Adi youth moving to bigger cities in pursuit of an urban life, the farmers must employ migrant workers. “Apart from the challenge of paying wages, another problem is that some of these workers from the neighboring states are insurgents in disguise – United Liberation Front Of Assam (ULFA), National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) from Assam, and National Socialist Council Of Nagaland (NSCN) especially in the Tirap/Changlang districts of the state,” says Jamo Tani, an Adi farmer and activist from the Pasighat area. Though Arunachal does not have a homegrown insurgency, various factors including insurgency in the interstate border have resulted in the imposition of the unpopular Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), which provides special powers to the India Army resulting in massive human rights violations. With the Chinese and Indian armies modernizing their warfare, AFSPA providing impunity to the Indian army, and insurgency within the state borders, conflict has become a way of life. With the recent developments in 2016 – political unrest in the Arunachal Pradesh government, ruthless floods in the Assam valley, increased Indian and Chinese armed forces to guard or expand territorial interests, and the ongoing great dam war – it is critically important that India give Arunachal Pradesh and the Northeast the attention they deserve, and that the powers in New Delhi and Beijing engage in serious, constructive diplomacy and dialogue.

Information: Adi | At The Confluence is an award-winning documentary film that portrays the resilience of the Adi people, who are faced with a complicated set of issues in the border of India and China. See http://www.theaditribe.com for more information. ————————– [The quoted statements in this article are excerpts from interviews filmed for the documentary. Joor Baruah has taken the photographs during his travel to the Adi villages]

It was the first visit of Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic to the Kingdom of the Netherlands since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the Kyrgyz Republic and the Netherlands. By the invitation of the Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs Mr Bert Koenders, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic Mr Erlan Abdyldaev visited The Hague last October.

During the meeting the Ministers exchanged views on the political developments and the progress of democratic reforms in the Kyrgyz Republic, and also discussed security issues in Central Asia. Koenders and Abdyldaev both reaffirmed the importance of international cooperation to prevent radicalization and fighting against terrorism, also discussed opportunities for expanding economic cooperation between the two countries. The Dutch side noted the importance of Kyrgyzstan receiving “Partner for Democracy” status of the PACE, as well as the Generalized scheme of preferences (GSP +) status of the European Union. The Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to continue working together in a framework of multilateral organizations recognizing the importance of strengthening the relations between the Kyrgyz Republic and the European Union.

On the picture Mr Aldo Verbruggen, President of AMADE Nederland. AMADE Nederland, a beautiful gala evening in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, The Netherlands. In presence of Mr Daniel Endres, Deputy High Commissioner of UNHCR and Director External Relations UNHCR, AMADE Nederland organized a beautiful charity gala evening in Het Noordbrababants Museum in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, on the 12th of November 2016. AMADE Nederland is an independent Dutch charity organization established as a local branch of AMADE Mondiale in Monaco. AMADE was initiated more than 50 years ago by the late Princes Grace, and chaired by Her daughter HRH The Princess of Hanover, Princess Caroline of Monaco since 1993. AMADE stands up for the most vulnerable children in the world regardless nationality, origin, or religion all over world trying to improve their surroundings in terms of healthcare, education and protection of their rights. AMADE initiates aid campaigns independently or supports aid programs in cooperation with other organizations and operates through a network of local AMADE branches in several countries on almost each continent.

AMADE Nederland was incorporated in May 2014 on the initiative of Mr Pieter Bogaardt, Dutch citizen and resident of Monaco, former member of the Board of Directors and of the Executive Committee of AMADE Mondiale. A few years ago AMADE Nederland has made commitment to join the worldwide campaign of UNHCR ‘Time to Act’, in support of the Syrian refugee children, with the aim of preventing a lost generation and breaking the barriers of access to education and health care. The gala event in Het Noordbrabants Museum was dedicated thereto and with great success. Upon arrival of the honouree guests, reception took place at the ‘Centrale As’ of the museum. After the cocktail the guests visited the impressive exhibition of Claire Morgan, ‘The Sound of Silence’. Once the guests were welcomed in the historical hall of the museum, a delightful dinner was served in a magical atmosphere, enlivened by baritone Ernst Daniel Smid and his musicians. During dinner true serious matters were presented. The speech by the President of AMADE Nederland, Mr Aldo Verbruggen, was inspiring, emphasizing the urge to act and to continue to act, supporting the vulnerable child refugees and making the attendants aware of the responsibility of all people in the free world. Caring for these children can make a difference; it might be a small drop, but small drops all together will ultimately result into an ocean. Mr Daniel Endres, explained the role of UNHCR in the terrible Syrian conflict, the refugee children can do nothing about and pointed out the on going difficulties UNHCR is facing every day again and again, at the same time stating, how much private initiatives to support UNHCR in fulfilling its tasks and obligations, are being very very much appreciated.

The gala event ended with an auction of high quality items such as a sculpture of the German artist Rotraut Klein-Moquay, ‘Playing with Stars’, donated by Guy Pieters Gallery in Knokke Le Zoute, a beautiful bronze sculpture of the Dutch well known artist Nancy Faas, ‘Protection, Art meets Humanity’, a weekend in the legendary Plaza Athénée in Paris and jewellery of Gassan Diamonds, ‘Fly me to the Moon’, led by the famous auction master Mr Junior Zegger. Thanks to the guests offering high amounts for the items and thanks to Mr Paul van Rensch, who sponsored the evening by contributing great travel photo books and some selected photographs printed on metal, all items auctioned for impressive amounts. The auction was a great success! The major part of the revenue of the event will be donated for the benefit of the Syrian child refugees in the camps in Jordan. Another part of the revenue will be donated to an educational project for children to be organized by Het Noordbrabants Museum. Charity is a never-ending story. With the contribution of donators AMADE hopes to make the life of some children a little better. Find out more about AMADE and visit the website (www.amade-nederland.com).    

On the picture Helga Gál Hungarian wine expert.   By John Dunkelgrün. On December 1st the Embassy of Hungary together with Nyenrode Business University organised a wine tasting at the Carlton Ambassador. The evening was not a diplomatic event, but as Dr. András Kocsis, the ambassador, said in his welcome speech, its goal was to introduce Hungarian wines to Dutch wine importers and wine experts in The Netherlands.

Hungarian wines used to have a great name all over Europe but during the communist years the planners went for quantity rather than quality. As there are now many countries that produce wines from as far away as New Zealand to neighbour Slovakia, Hungary decided to go for quality. The embassy had Helga Gál, the wine expert from the Ministry of Agriculture especially flown in for this presentation. She gave a very impressive overview of the Hungarian wine industry.

For additional Robert Huibert’s pictures, please open the following link: https://www.flickr.com/photos/121611753@N07/albums/72157677949996555 Hungarian wine production, she said, focuses on quality, tradition and character. Some of the original vineyard owners have bought back their estates and are planting their vines on the hills rather than the flat fields that can produce copious quantities of plonk. Hungary has a real wine drinking culture and over the last decades wine shops have sprung up all over the country. There people, especially young people, can buy great wines by the glass in modern cool surroundings. They don’t have to fork out big money for a whole bottle and strangely, this mushrooming culture has reduced the consumption of alcohol.

The guests were welcomed with a glass of Garamvári from the Balaton region. It is a fresh tasting bubbly that is much better than most of the Prosecco available here. There are six distinct wine making regions in Hungary, Danube, Pannon, Balaton, Transdanubia, Upper Hungary and of course, Tokaj. Apart from the bubbly there were seven wines to taste. Your correspondent, somewhat awed by the array of wine experts who attended, will not give you a sip by sip account of the various wines. Suffice it to say that they ranged from the good to the excellent with an aged Tokaj as a pièce de résistance.

In the Tokaj region wines have been made for millennia. It was the first wine area in the world that received defined and protected name. They have even found a fossilised vine leaf dating back to the miocene, over five million years ago. If that isn’t tradition, I don’t know what is. It is to be hoped that these wines will soon be available to the wine loving public in The Netherlands.

Brexit – Pakistanization finally comes home, who Needs Greater State Projects in the Balkans? Ever since the end of the WWI, and especially since the end of the WWII, the UK official foreign policy line was nearly always the same, imperial – partition and division. Divide/atomise and rule (divide at impere) ! Was it Asia, Latin America, Africa, Ukraine, Balkans or the Middle East – Pakistanization was the UK classical (colonial) concept, action and answer ! With the Brexit at sight, seems that the Pakistanization (finally) came home. However, certain destructive UK quasi-intellectual circles are trying to postpone inevitable. Following lines are about that ill-fated attempt.   ********** By Dr. Zlatko Hadžidedić. Foreign Affairs, a renowned American foreign policy journal, recently published an article under the title Dysfunction in the Balkans, written by Timothy Less. In this article the author offers his advice to the new American Administration, suggesting it to abandon the policy of support to the territorial integrity of the states created in the process of dissolution of the former Yugoslavia. Timothy Less advocates a total redesign of the existing state boundaries in the Balkans, on the basis of a rather problematic claim that the multiethnic states in the Balkans (such as Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia) proved to be dysfunctional, whereas the ethnically homogenous states (such as Croatia, Albania and Croatia) proved to be prosperous. Also, the author claims that the peoples in the Balkans, having lost any enthusiasm for the multiethnic status quo, predominantly strive to finally accomplish the imagined monoethnic greater state projects – so-called Greater Serbia, Greater Croatia and Greater Albania. According to Less’ design, the imagined Greater Serbia should embrace the existing Serb entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina (that is, 49% of the Bosnian territory), but also the entire internationally recognized Republic of Montenegro; the Greater Croatia should embrace a future Croatian entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina; the Greater Albania should embrace both Kosovo and the western part of Macedonia. All these territorial redesigns, claims Less, would eventually bring about a lasting peace and stability in the region. The question is, to what extent these proposals can be seen as founded in the geopolitical reality of the Balkans, or the author only acts as a spokesperson for particular interest groups whose aim is to accomplish their geopolitical projects, regardless of the price paid by the peoples of the Balkans? First, let us take a look at the author’s professional background. According to his official biographies, Timothy Less was the head of the British diplomatic office in Banja Luka, the capital of the Serb entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina. He was also the political secretary of the British Embassy in Skopje, Macedonia. Now he runs a consulting agency called Nova Europa, so he has officially left the British diplomatic service. Thus he served as a diplomat exactly in those two states which are, according to his analysis, the most desirable candidates for dissolution. If one remembers that the British foreign policy, since the 1990s, has occasionally but unambiguously advocated the creation of the imagined monoethnic greater states – Greater Serbia, Greater Croatia and Greater Albania – as an alleged path towards lasting stability in the Balkans, it is difficult to escape the impression that this diplomat, having served in Banja Luka and Skopje, probably acted as an informal adviser to those very political forces, such as the Serbian and Albanian separatists, who should be the most active participants in the realization of those greater state projects. And ever since he left the diplomatic service, Timothy Less has regularly published articles in which he ‘foresees’, that is, invites new ethnic conflicts and ethnic divisions in the Balkans. In the Foreign Affairs article now he attempts to persuade the new American Administration that it should also adopt the policy of completion of the greater state projects in the region. Ironically, Less now makes that in order to prevent all those ethnic wars that he himself has been announcing, that is, inviting and advocating. Obviously, the long-term strategy of inviting ethnic conflicts in order to implement the greater state projects in the Balkans, together with the current strategy of advocating their completion in order to allegedly bring the stability back to the region, must be perceived as a serious geopolitical projection designed by one relatively influential part of the British foreign policy establishment. In that context, so-called ‘independent experts’, such as Timothy Less, have a task to persuade the world that such projections can be ‘the only reasonable solution’. Still, it is clear that he is as independent as his solutions are reasonable. For example, Less claims that multiethnic states, in which the aforementioned national projects have remained unaccomplished, are the main impediments to stability in the Balkans. However, the historical reality has demonstrated that this claim is a simple red herring fallacy. For, the very concept of completed ethnonational states is a concept that has only led towards perpetual instability wherever applied, because such ethnonational territories cannot be created without violence, that is, without ethnic cleansing and wars. The strategy of ‘solving national issues’ has always led, both in the Balkans and elsewhere, only towards permanent instability, never towards final stability. What is particularly interesting, in accordance with the principle of national self-determination promoted at the Peace Conference in Versailles the winners in the World War I advocated the creation of the common national state of the Southern Slavs. Some seventy years later, the same great powers accepted, and sometimes advocated, the dissolution of that very state in the name of self-determination of some other national states, since all the former Yugoslav republics, with the exception of Bosnia-Herzegovina, had been constituted as national states. And now, their spokespersons, like Less, advocate a dissolution of most of these states in order to complete some greater state projects – of course, again in the name of national self-determination. Looking from that perspective, one can only conclude that national self-determination, as much as the nation itself, is a totally arbitrary category, changeable in accordance with current geopolitical interests – of course, the interests of the big ones, not of those small ones whose ‘problem of national self-determination’ is allegedly being solved. Since we cannot reject Less’ proposal as a mere list of the author’s wishes and desires, let us ask ourselves what is the true relevance of Foreign Affairs in international political circles and how much this article can really influence future actions of the new American Administration. Foreign Affairs is a publication sponsored by the body called the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), whose membership from the very beginning consisted of senior politicians, secretaries of state, directors of CIA, bankers, academics, lawyers and senior media figures. This body was founded in 1921 as a common Anglo-American project, conceived as the embodiment of the so-called special relationship between the United States and Great Britain, which had been created during the World War I and has remained present to the present day. In this sense, there can hardly be a journal in the entire world with greater political influence, comparable only with the influence of the CFR itself. Therefore, the geopolitical manifesto written by Timothy Less must be taken with ultimate seriousness, because it certainly reflects the interests of some influential circles within the Anglo-American foreign policy establishment. Bearing in mind all the public support that Hillary Clinton enjoyed during her presidential campaign from the people gathered around Foreign Affairs, it is reasonable to assume that she would probably adopt Less’ suggestions. However, it is less likely that the newly-elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, who did not enjoy a slightest support from these circles, will not be so naive as to adopt the strategy of completion of greater state projects presented in Foreign Affairs as his own strategy and a vision that can contribute to peace and stability in any part of the world. However, if that happens, we shall face not only new ethnic conflicts in the Balkans, but also a lasting instability in the rest of the world. —————- About the author: Graduate of the London School of Economics, Prof. Zlatko Hadžidedić is a prominent thinker, prolific author of numerous books, and indispensable political figure of the former Yugoslav socio-political space in 1990s, 2000s and 2010s.  

By Corneliu Pivariu, CEO INGEPO Consulting, MG (two stars general – ret.) The civil war in Syria has been closely followed by Israel. Of course this is not only a contemplative attention, Israel is acting especially by political and diplomatic means so to that end of this conflict does not represent a new threat to its existence. In this regard the Israeli leadership develops close ties with Russia especially to prevent as much as possible a dangerous increase of the support that Moscow gives to the Lebanese Hezbollah The Hezbollah has a great influence in the political and social life of Lebanon, it has an important presence in the Lebanese parliament deputies and the election of general Michel Aoun, which is a political all as president mars a further strengthening of its position in Lebanon. The Hezbollah is present not only in southern Lebanon but also in the south of Beirut, Bekaa Valley and the mountainous region of Hermel, featuring an impressive infrastructure socio-economic activities (schools, hospitals and other social services, companies, stores) media (radio, TV, newspapers) telephone networks (including a land network of its own and intelligence and military components of. The Hezbollah as a whole is classified as a terrorist organization in the US, Israel, Canada, France, the Netherlands, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Arab League. Its military component is considered terrorist by Britain and the European Union. Hezbollah’s main foreign ally is Iran, which has offered since its creation financial, military and logistical support and expertise. Syria had a great contribution in this respect; the beginning of the military cooperation between Iran-Hezbollah-Syria can be set in with the establishment of the paramilitary camp in the immediate vicinity of the springs of the Barada river northwest of Damascus near the border with Lebanon. At the beginning of the wrongly named “Arab Spring” the Hezbollah has followed the developments with some distance, but the beginning of the civil war in Syria and the relationships it has with the Assad clan and of course those with Iran, led Hezbollah to engage directly militarily on the side of a Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The official recognition of this involvement happened in with the battle of Qusair (a Syrian locality near the border with Lebanon) where it had a key role in the annihilation of the Syrian opposition in this area. From that time until now, the Hezbollah has lost at least 1,000 fighters and a number of commanders in the battles fought on the Syrian territory including in the area of Aleppo. The military component of Hezbollah acquired a great military experience. According to the latest public data, in 2016 the Hezbollah had 45,000 fighters of which 21,000 were in active duty. About 8,000 of them are deployed in Syria (the figure is apparently the double of the combatants of the organization involved in the conflict with Israel in 2006). The level of weapons and military equipment has been improved in terms of quality and quantity after the 2016 conflict with Israel. Hezbollah’s military budget in 2016 was almost one billion dollars. It is generally considered that the Hezbollah has about 100,000 unguided reactive rockets and missiles able to hit Israel up to 150 km (Iranian Zelzate-1 missiles) thousands of antitank missiles of various types (from the Russian AT-3 Sagger to its Iranian version Raad and MILAN) a strong component of air defense (SA-7, SA-14, SA-18, SA-22- from Russia, Stinger from Afghanistan via Iran, Vanguard from China via Syria); nearly 100 T-55 and T-72 tanks offered by Syria; C-802 anti-ship missiles (of Chinese origin via Iran) and P-800 Oniks from Russia. Iran has provided the Hezbollah at least four Mohajer-4 UAVs. Under these circumstances Israel believes that the Hezbollah represents one of the biggest military threats. If at the end of the civil war in Syria the Hezbollah manages to maintain its combat capability, even if Israel will preserve its superiority in many aspects, a new conflict in southern Lebanon will produce a lot more losses and will be more expensive than the one in 2006, one of the reasons for that being the fact that the Hezbollah will act in a territory where the population supports it. We consider that at least on the medium term, a new conflict between the Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon is very unlikely. A possible trigger may occur after a new rearrangement of the balance of forces in the Middle East . —————- About the author: Corneliu Pivariu, former first deputy for military intelligence (two stars general) in the Romanian MoD, retired 2003. Member of IISS – London, alumni of Harvard – Kennedy School Executive Education and others international organizations. Founder of INGEPO Consulting, and bimonthly Bulletin, Geostrategic Pulse”. Main areas of expertise – geopolitics, intelligence and security. Photography by INGEPO Consulting. Photographer: Ionus Paraschiv. This article has been published in www.ingepo.roGeostrategic Pulse, No 226, Monday 5 December 2016

By Michael Akerib.   “The treaty does not say that France must undertake to have children, but it is the first thing which ought to have been put in it. For if France turns her back on large families, one can put all the clauses one wants in a treaty, one can take all the guns of Germany, one can do whatever one likes, France will be lost because there will be no more Frenchmen.”  George Clemenceau A bit of history France went through the second demographic transition in the middle of the eighteenth century and its population lagged behind those of Germany and Great Britain. While citizens of these last two countries immigrated, France imported migrants from other Catholic countries such as Belgium, Italy, Poland and Spain. The French government also took pro-natality measures such as such as family allowances. While originally Europe’s most populated country, France’s slide into lower birth rates preceded the other countries of the continent by approximately 100 years. At the end of the 1930s, the country had the world’s oldest population. The French population, which has doubled over a period of two hundred years, has alternated periods of strong growth (in the first half of the 19th century, early 1920s and from the end of the Second World War to the 1960s) and of decline. One of the reasons for France being a demography laggard was most certainly the fact that French women had easier access to contraception than other European women, and in particular than German women. Further, the First World War killed or made prisoner 1.3 million men. One in eight Frenchmen aged between fifteen and forty-nine died. Petain’s government during the German occupation attempted to increase birth rates through the distribution of medals, but registered a total failure. Natality today Today France is only one of two countries in Europe with a growing population and has the continent’s highest birth rate at 2.0 children per woman, representing three quarters of Europe’s positive demography, but it remains below the replacement rate of 2.07. No doubt this very honourable result is due to the fact that the country offers a large number of day care centers, generous parental leave, allowances and tax breaks. France spends annually nearly 70 billion Euros, or nearly 4% of GDP, in various payments to encourage birth and the upkeep of children. One percent of GDP, or nearly 12 billion Euros, is spent just on the upkeep of children younger than three years old. Immigrant fertility is another important contributor. In Paris, for instance, one third of the mothers is foreign-born. These results have been achieved in spite of a number of drawbacks. Women have, in France like in other countries, entered massively in higher education, and therefore couple formation takes place increasingly later. Therefore highly educated women are time-restrained to have more than one or two children. While marriages have reached a low point, civil unions (PACS or Pacte Civil de Solidarité) are catching up with marriages – half the cohabiting population is not married. Women in France have their first child at 28 years old, ten years after their first sexual relations, while it was 24 years old thirty years ago. The number of childless women has remained stable at a low level and one woman in five has only one child and this has been a stable figure. 11% of women remain childless while the norm is of a two-child family. Women who are practising Catholics have a higher birth rate than non-practising women. The decline in fertility parallels religious decline. Men are increasingly childless. One of the reasons is that an increasing number of men live alone. However, this increased incidence of childlessness also affects men who have been married or lived with a heterosexual partner – 12% have remained childless. Aging It is forecast that France’s population will be of 73.6 million on January 1, 2060, thus representing an increase of 11.8 million compared to 2007. The number of people aged 60 or over will have increased, during the same time period, by 10.4 million and will represent one third of the population or 23.6 million. The number of people aged 75 to 84 will be of 11.9 million and those over 85 would be 5.4 million. Only 22% of the population will be younger than 20. These figures are based on a scenario in which the average number of children per woman is of 1.95, there is a positive migratory flux of 100 000 per year and life expectancy continues to progress at the same rhythm as in the past. While French women have a long life expectancy, among the longest in Europe, this is not the case for French men. For a male born in 2006, life expectancy was of 77.4 years, while it was 84.4 years for a male. By 2050, these figures are expected to be, respectively, of 82.7 and 89.1 and by 2100 to be, respectively, of 91 and 95. By 2060 the country should have 200 000 persons over 100 year old. In fact, their number doubles every 10 years with the vast majority (6 out of 7) being women. If France’s long term demographic growth is confirmed, with a population reaching 75 million by 2050, the equilibrium between European nations would be altered – Germany would have slightly under 71 million inhabitants, Great Britain just under 59 million and Italy 43 million, equal to the present Spanish population. The percentage of the population over 65 compared to the rest of the population – is expected to increase from 28% in 2013 to 46% in 2050 at which time the average life expectancy will have grown from 81 to 86 years. Health issues Compounding the extension of life and the continued higher than European-average birth rates, there will be a lack of personnel to take care of both these extremes of the population curve. This phenomenon has been called the ‘care deficit’. Economic impact The economic dependency ratio – in other words the percentage of the population over 65 compared to the rest of the population – is expected to increase from 28% in 2013 to 46% in 2050 at which time the average life expectancy will have grown from 81 to 86 years. This is expected to increase savings rates as pensions may be unable to offer generous payments to retirees. France is, in fact, France is the country in the EU where people spend the longest time in retirement: 24.5 years against an average of 19.8. A French specificity is the very small rate of employment of the population over 55 years old, particularly in comparison to other European countries. Thus, only 18% of the 60 – 64 years old are employed while the corresponding figure in Sweden is of 64%. Even worse, only 4% of the 65 – 69 age bracket are employed in France against 18% in Sweden. The situation in France is due not only to the fact that it is felt that younger persons are more productive, but also to the large salary differentials between employees due to their age and number of years in employment in the same company. Another effect of ageing is the later transmission of the inheritance. This means that the inheritors will be older than previously and will therefore be less tempted to make riskier investments, such as in shares. Corporations may face difficulties in raising finance. By 2060, the cost of aging will represent 3.7% of GDP. The majority of these costs will be represented by health costs as although the population is aging, the number of years during which the population is in good health is not changing. Conclusion Will France end up as a poor country of older people with those in the most advanced age groups left to care for themselves as the number of care givers shrinks? Unless a reversal of the population decline takes place, this is what is most likely to occur. ———————— About the author: Michael Akerib, professor of business and entrepreneurship, former University Vice-Rector. Owner, Rusconsult.

By Daniele Scalea. The “Trump Train” (once a Twitter hashtag and then a successful metaphor of the assertive, and to date unstoppable, reform wind blown by Donald Trump) is finally arrived at the White House. But this is very likely not the final destination of its journey. The Trump Train could soon arrive in Europe. And it would be a return trip. As Donald Trump frequently referred to, his campaign owes a lot of inspiration from the Brexit movement. Surely Trump got in politics well before, but after June he’s started referring to his rise as a “Brexit plus plus plus”. And it wasn’t just a motivational motto. The Trumpist and Brexiteer final arguments strictly resemble one another: a proudly nationalistic rebuttal of adverse fallouts of globalization, from industrial outsourcing to the (West)self-hating ideology of extreme multiculturalism. The Trump Train and the Brexit share also a common grass-roots social base of support, which are the White working and middle classes of small cities and rural areas especially. Even if US society is still very different from the European one, the rampant globalization of last decades has made them quite close compared to half a century ago. Both US and Europe has experienced massive deindustrialization with a geographical concentration of the remaining high-tech industries in a few islands of happiness – few compared to the many rust belts of the Western world. Both US and Europe has seen a deep financialization of their economies. Both US and Europe has been overwhelmed by the new ideology of the so-called politically correct, a post-modern, constructivist, relativist and anti-Western set of theories and practices. It’s true: in the US you can find also the Bible Belt, but if we consider the European Union as a whole, we could see a Catholic Belt in its Eastern countries, opposed to Sweden (a European California) or London and Paris (European New Yorks) or in general the more liberal Western countries. Exactly as in the US, also in Europe the post-modernism is currently hegemonic in colleges and mainstream media, which are trying to inculcate it also in the common man, and the common woman – and the common *… Finally, the massive immigration flows of last decades in Europe are making her society more and more resembles the composite ethnic mix of North American society. In so similar environments, it is predictable to find similar political trends and demands. Brexit- and Trump-alike movements are in high gear throughout Europe, with very few notable exceptions (as Spain, but maybe only because the Partido Popular is quite more right-wing than its conservative counterparts in other countries). The working class vote has yet largely migrated from the Left to the Right, whereas the upper class is now proudly leftist in majority. Larger cities are the liberal strongholds while the suburbs are swarmed by Brexiteer-style so-called “populists”. You have read in every possible way how Trump prevail among White electorate by 60%-40%, losing among Blacks (10%-90%) and Hispanics (35%-65%). Surely we cannot trust too much pollsters’s statistics, but they are perfectly in line with surveys in previous elections. Now, take the Brexit vote: white voters chose Leave by a notable (and indeed determining the final result) margin of 53%-47%, which would be ever wider if it was not for the Scotland and Northern Ireland’s white voters, who had very particular and local-specific reason for prefering Remain. Anyway, they were not Scots or Irish the ethnic groups that by a larger majority voted for remain in the European Union. They were Asians (65%-35%), Muslims (70%-30%) and Blacks (75%-25%) instead. No wonder if, looking into the foreign-born voters in Europe, or also second- and third-generation immigrants, we will find a clear support for the Left. And since those groups are now numerically very considerable in many countries, they can actually determine the outcome of an European election. Precisely as Blacks and Hispanics in the US have been decisive in the elections of Presidents Kennedy, Carter, Clinton and Obama, all with minor approval among Whites. Prompting White voters to move rightwards With all these similarities in place, it becomes very likely for Europe to follow on the path already taken by US politics. Bets are open on which major European country will be the first stop of the Trump Train. About the author: Daniele Scalea, geopolitical analyst, is Director-general of IsAG (Rome Institute of Geopolitics) and Ph.D. Candidate in Political studies at the Sapienza University, Rome. Author of three books, is frequent contributor and columnist to various Tv-channels and newspapers. E-mail: daniele.scalea[at]gmail.com