On the picture H. E. Nawaz Sharif Prime Minister of Pakistan. By Professor Waqas Halim. The two South Asia arch-rivals India and Pakistan have seen contrasting trajectories in the last decade. India has gone from strength to strength economically as well as politically; whereas Pakistan is beset with a multitude of intricate problems. It is grappling with the menaces of insurgency, terrorism and radical extremism, not to forget political instability and strained ties with India on the eastern flank. These conspicuous issues mar Pakistan from augmenting its elements of national power, which leaves it in a diplomatically weaker position. However, Pakistan has a substantial power base to capitalize and build upon to become a major force to in the South Asian power calculus. Despite the evident chaotic scenario, there is a visible opportunity for Pakistan to unleash its power potential in the region. Foreign Policy and International linkages render immense significance in this regard for the country as the geostrategic location of Pakistan gives the country a natural source to elicit strength from. Pakistan’s engagements with its strategic partners and neighbors must enable it to yield maximum benefits from the confluence of factors which are set to put Pakistan at the center stage. There is a renewed sense of optimism among the policy-makers in the country that the country can now meet its energy needs through forging stronger ties with its neighbors. Three historic and rather game-changing events in the region bring to the fore opportunities for Pakistan to not only become a fulcrum of economic activity through the smooth supply of energy sources for its domestic consumption but also transit these resources to the regional power, China. Those three developments entail Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project; the Iran- USA Nuclear Deal which has strong ramification on the trade with Iran and the much totted, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with a $46 Billion investment plan in Pakistan. First, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project is one such colossal initiative, which will help mitigate Pakistan’s energy crisis. TAPI project is monumental for the region in more ways than one. Firstly, it has not only garnered wholehearted support from the 4 signatories, but the project has been espoused by the world community at large. The 1,800-KM long pipeline will transport 33 billion cubic meters of gas from the Turkmen gas fields of South Yolotan and Usman to the restive Afghan provinces of Helmand, Heart and Kandahar. Thereafter, it will pass through Balochistan and South Punjab, and will in India’s city of Fazilka (as per the original plan). Besides, giving Turkmenistan a viable and lucrative outlet to export vast deposits of natural gas, it will relieve pressure on foreign donors in sustaining Afghanistan as it helps generate jobs and transit fees. However, most importantly, the pipeline is set to enhance Pakistan’s strategic and diplomatic clout in the region. There are two reasons which underlie this assertion. Pakistan is beleaguered in a severe energy crisis, which is expected to worsen in the future if cheap energy sources are not used efficiently. The TAPI agreement will give Pakistan a much-needed crutch in shape of a smooth supply of gas. This will help the country to significantly ameliorate its energy production landscape. This will generate economic activity and augment industrial production. As of now the situation is bleak, for Pakistan’s industrial sector is fast-crippling in wake of the power crisis. Pakistan could be of great strategic importance to India. Pakistan’s arch nemesis does not share a direct border with Central Asian Republics. India’s desire to become a hegemonic regional and world power is dependent upon sustaining and strengthening its economic power. This can be realized if it has access to easy and cheap sources of energy. Pakistan thus becomes the only plausible conduit for India. It is therefore, imperative for both countries to tread on a different course since the potential advantages can be offset by ramping-up the ante. The prospects of this pipeline realizing its aims hinge upon certain essential requisites. Peace and security in the Af-Pak is fundamental for the TAPI agreement to yield dividends. Efforts to obliterate the terrorist networks are well underway in Pakistan, with the launch of counter-terrorism military operations in the Tribal Areas of Pakistan and the insurgency-ridden province of Balochistan. In addition, Pakistan is mediating between the Taliban and the Afghan Government to bring the former in the mainstream political process. The security environment in Afghanistan and Pakistan needs to further improve for the project to actualize in its entirety. Another stumbling block is the simmering tensions between India and Pakistan. All in all, this project which is set to start soon will provide Pakistan to leverage its resources to propel the economic growth. Second, Pakistan can benefit greatly from the thaw in acrimonious ties between USA and Iran after the momentous nuclear deal in Vienna earlier this year. Though, the optimism surrounding the deal is rather exacerbated as it is argued by several experts that it will escalate tensions in the Middle East. However, there is a silver-lining in this for Pakistan as it could revive the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline (IPI) project. Progress and materialization of the project would enable Pakistan to alleviate its power issues with a continuous supply of gas. Again, Pakistan would be at the forefront of being a pavement to transmit valuable sources of energy. Besides, there are several other factors which impede the execution of the pipeline project. India, ostensibly, has lost the appetite to collaborate with the old rival on the western front. As an alternative plan, the government has sought support from the US to initiate a similar venture with the Tajik government which allows the Tajik pipeline to transmit gas through the Wakhan Border. Only time will tell which option is pursued by the decision makers. The experts argue that this may trigger a new tussle between the Arab countries and Iran. Alternatively, Pakistan can play an intermediary role to reconcile the differences between the two blocs. Finally, the development which has added to Pakistan’s geo-economic value is the initiation of the China-Pak Economic Corridor (CPEC) which would link the Gwadar port with Kashgar in Xinjiang, China. Besides the fact that Pakistan would attain a multitude of economic advantages, China would be able to increase its sphere of influence in the region, much to the dismay of the USA and India. China, being an industrial and trading giant needs timely and hazard-free supply of energy resources to power its industries. Gwadar’s proximity to the Strait of Hormuz will help transport oil and other petroleum products from the Persian Gulf to China through Pakistan, saving costs and time. In other words, the Middle East would be connected to the landlocked regions of China. Thus, despite the fact that Pakistan finds itself in a myriad of problems, it has the propensity to be a strategic pivot in the region; a hub of energy which could help regional integration and economic development. For this to materialize, peace in Afghanistan and Pakistan is of the essence, not to discard the need for normalization of ties with India. Pakistan can change the fate of its populace by availing these opportunities strategically and focus on good governance, which by and large, remains unaddressed. Picture courtesy of Pakistan Times.

By Kathryne Bomberger, Director-General, the International Commission on Missing Persons   More than three quarters of a million refugees have set out for Europe by sea in 2015 and of this number almost 3,500 have perished. Many of the missing and dead have not been located; many have not been identified. Those who disappear on the world’s migration routes are a tragic component of a global missing persons crisis that also encompasses conflict, crime, human rights violations and natural disasters. It has become clear that this global crisis requires a global response – and in order to be effective, that response must be coordinated, multi-disciplinary, and based on principles that are understood and accepted by all stakeholders. The decision by the governments of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium and Luxembourg to sign an Agreement in December last year granting the International Commission on Missing Persons (ICMP) the status of an intergovernmental organization with a mandate to tackle the missing persons issue around the world – the only international organization focused exclusively on this issue – reflects a new international consensus.

The Agreement stipulates that ICMP’s new international headquarters will be in The Hague. Foreign Minister Bert Koenders and I signed a host nation agreement on 5 October, and the process of setting up an ICMP office here is now well advanced. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the City of The Hague for the proactive practical assistance they have given us in this exercise. On 29 October at the Dutch Foreign Ministry the UK chaired the first Conference of ICMP State Parties – a body mandated by the 2014 Agreement. In addition to representatives of countries that have signed the Agreement, representatives of El Salvador, Germany, the US, Interpol and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) attended as observers. The CSP discussed ICMP’s plan of work through 2018. Among key activities for the period, ICMP will host the first meeting in November of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee on Missing Persons, whose initial focus will be on the issue of missing migrants and refugees. In 2016 ICMP will convene the first meeting of the Global Forum, which will bring together policymakers, legal experts, academics, civil society activists and others to advance an international discourse on missing persons.

During the coming three-year period, ICMP will harness new scientific methods to enhance its standing capacity in DNA-based human identification and it will establish a Center of Excellence for Training in The Hague. In addition, ICMP will expand access to its Identification Data Management System (iDMS) so that it can be utilized online from anywhere in the world. And it will operate programs in Africa, Europe, Asia and the Americas. Also on 29 October at the Foreign Ministry, we briefed around 30 country representatives on ICMP’s activities, explaining among other things that through signing the Agreement, countries are able to contribute to the organization’s development and strategy, as well as further advance the process of addressing the global problem of missing persons. Countries do not assume any funding or other financial obligations by signing. Originally established in 1996 at the initiative of US President Bill Clinton to help governments in the Western Balkans account for the 40,000 people missing as a result of the conflicts in former Yugoslavia, ICMP spearheaded an effort that made it possible to account for more than 70 percent of these people. In 2001 ICMP pioneered a DNA-led process that resulted in an exponential rise in the number of identifications. ICMP was invited to work beyond the Western Balkans for the first time in 2005, following the Southeast Asian Tsunami and since then it has been asked by governments and organizations to work in countries throughout the world. With a standing capacity to process 10,000 DNA profiles per year, ICMP has been able to make around 20,000 DNA identifications worldwide. ICMP employs a rule of law approach and helps states to develop public law institutions to investigate missing persons cases. In the course of two decades we have found that this is more effective than an ad hoc humanitarian approach. ICMP also works with families of the missing to help them lobby effectively for their rights. Having our headquarters in The Hague will make it possible for ICMP to work more closely with diplomatic missions, international courts and other organizations that are based here. We look forward to developing constructive relations in the City of Peace and Justice with a community of people who are committed to delivering solutions to major global challenges. For more information please visit www.icmp.int