By Dr. Tiberio Graziani.
Due to the pandemic, it is challenging to make predictions about the US presidential election.
Until a few months ago, Trump’s re-election was taken for granted. The global lockdown due to Coronavirus, the increase in unemployed (estimated between 25 and 30 million), the collapse of the price of the oil and Trump’s “original” claims combine to create a climate of distrust towards the current administration. This, however, does not automatically translate into an advantage for the Democratic Party which still struggles to compact behind Biden.
The blows made by Trump during his term against the so-called Deep State destabilized not only the Democratic Party but also the cross-cutting alliances of large and powerful pressure groups in the fields of industry and finance. It could be said that, in this period, in the US, but also in other countries of the so-called Western world, politics is not in good health.
The general climate of mistrust among all Americans will most likely reward the candidate who will best be able to negotiate with the US lobbies, the Fed and the Pentagon from now to November and who, above all, will demonstrate his reliability. Following this logic, the winning candidate should be Biden. However, whether Biden is elected or Trump is reconfirmed, the Americans will have a presidency “commissioned” by large industrial groups, finance and investors in digital infrastructures, which, thanks also to the pandemic, are taking on an increasing role.
In the case of an upcoming administration led by Joe Biden, the great US strategy in the international arena will not change. The enemies will always be Beijing and Moscow: the two lungs of the Eurasian continental mass. Probably, the new administration will try to play, depending on convenience, Moscow against Beijing, Beijing against Moscow, New Delhi and Moscow against Beijing. Likewise, Washington will attempt to further weaken France and Germany with the aim of strengthening its manufacturing production.
The new US administration will have the task of redefining the traditional alliances that arose after the second world war in the context of a reformulation of a new international order. Washington will be forced to strengthen its relations with the UK, Israel and Japan. The reinforcement of the special partnership with London will aim to help Washington control the countries of continental Europe, contain the hegemonic aims of Paris and Berlin and, internationally, influence the global financial market. Still, within the framework of the control of Europe and the “containment” or, better, destabilization of Russia, Washington will continue its “friendship” policy with Warsaw, Kiev and Tbilisi.
A renewed friendly relationship with Israel, also due to the unpredictability of Erdogan’s Turkey, will allow the United States to maintain its role in the Near East in particular in the dispute with the Islamic Republic of Iran. A probable new relationship with Tokyo will be based on the common opposition with Beijing.