On the picture H. E. Nawaz Sharif Prime Minister of Pakistan.
By Professor Waqas Halim.
The two South Asia arch-rivals India and Pakistan have seen contrasting trajectories in the last decade. India has gone from strength to strength economically as well as politically; whereas Pakistan is beset with a multitude of intricate problems.
It is grappling with the menaces of insurgency, terrorism and radical extremism, not to forget political instability and strained ties with India on the eastern flank. These conspicuous issues mar Pakistan from augmenting its elements of national power, which leaves it in a diplomatically weaker position.
However, Pakistan has a substantial power base to capitalize and build upon to become a major force to in the South Asian power calculus. Despite the evident chaotic scenario, there is a visible opportunity for Pakistan to unleash its power potential in the region. Foreign Policy and International linkages render immense significance in this regard for the country as the geostrategic location of Pakistan gives the country a natural source to elicit strength from.
Pakistan’s engagements with its strategic partners and neighbors must enable it to yield maximum benefits from the confluence of factors which are set to put Pakistan at the center stage.
There is a renewed sense of optimism among the policy-makers in the country that the country can now meet its energy needs through forging stronger ties with its neighbors. Three historic and rather game-changing events in the region bring to the fore opportunities for Pakistan to not only become a fulcrum of economic activity through the smooth supply of energy sources for its domestic consumption but also transit these resources to the regional power, China.
Those three developments entail Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project; the Iran- USA Nuclear Deal which has strong ramification on the trade with Iran and the much totted, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with a $46 Billion investment plan in Pakistan.
First, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project is one such colossal initiative, which will help mitigate Pakistan’s energy crisis. TAPI project is monumental for the region in more ways than one. Firstly, it has not only garnered wholehearted support from the 4 signatories, but the project has been espoused by the world community at large.
The 1,800-KM long pipeline will transport 33 billion cubic meters of gas from the Turkmen gas fields of South Yolotan and Usman to the restive Afghan provinces of Helmand, Heart and Kandahar. Thereafter, it will pass through Balochistan and South Punjab, and will in India’s city of Fazilka (as per the original plan).
Besides, giving Turkmenistan a viable and lucrative outlet to export vast deposits of natural gas, it will relieve pressure on foreign donors in sustaining Afghanistan as it helps generate jobs and transit fees. However, most importantly, the pipeline is set to enhance Pakistan’s strategic and diplomatic clout in the region. There are two reasons which underlie this assertion.
Pakistan is beleaguered in a severe energy crisis, which is expected to worsen in the future if cheap energy sources are not used efficiently. The TAPI agreement will give Pakistan a much-needed crutch in shape of a smooth supply of gas. This will help the country to significantly ameliorate its energy production landscape. This will generate economic activity and augment industrial production.
As of now the situation is bleak, for Pakistan’s industrial sector is fast-crippling in wake of the power crisis. Pakistan could be of great strategic importance to India. Pakistan’s arch nemesis does not share a direct border with Central Asian Republics. India’s desire to become a hegemonic regional and world power is dependent upon sustaining and strengthening its economic power. This can be realized if it has access to easy and cheap sources of energy. Pakistan thus becomes the only plausible conduit for India. It is therefore, imperative for both countries to tread on a different course since the potential advantages can be offset by ramping-up the ante.
The prospects of this pipeline realizing its aims hinge upon certain essential requisites. Peace and security in the Af-Pak is fundamental for the TAPI agreement to yield dividends. Efforts to obliterate the terrorist networks are well underway in Pakistan, with the launch of counter-terrorism military operations in the Tribal Areas of Pakistan and the insurgency-ridden province of Balochistan. In addition, Pakistan is mediating between the Taliban and the Afghan Government to bring the former in the mainstream political process. The security environment in Afghanistan and Pakistan needs to further improve for the project to actualize in its entirety. Another stumbling block is the simmering tensions between India and Pakistan. All in all, this project which is set to start soon will provide Pakistan to leverage its resources to propel the economic growth.
Second, Pakistan can benefit greatly from the thaw in acrimonious ties between USA and Iran after the momentous nuclear deal in Vienna earlier this year. Though, the optimism surrounding the deal is rather exacerbated as it is argued by several experts that it will escalate tensions in the Middle East. However, there is a silver-lining in this for Pakistan as it could revive the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline (IPI) project. Progress and materialization of the project would enable Pakistan to alleviate its power issues with a continuous supply of gas. Again, Pakistan would be at the forefront of being a pavement to transmit valuable sources of energy.
Besides, there are several other factors which impede the execution of the pipeline project. India, ostensibly, has lost the appetite to collaborate with the old rival on the western front. As an alternative plan, the government has sought support from the US to initiate a similar venture with the Tajik government which allows the Tajik pipeline to transmit gas through the Wakhan Border. Only time will tell which option is pursued by the decision makers. The experts argue that this may trigger a new tussle between the Arab countries and Iran. Alternatively, Pakistan can play an intermediary role to reconcile the differences between the two blocs.
Finally, the development which has added to Pakistan’s geo-economic value is the initiation of the China-Pak Economic Corridor (CPEC) which would link the Gwadar port with Kashgar in Xinjiang, China. Besides the fact that Pakistan would attain a multitude of economic advantages, China would be able to increase its sphere of influence in the region, much to the dismay of the USA and India. China, being an industrial and trading giant needs timely and hazard-free supply of energy resources to power its industries. Gwadar’s proximity to the Strait of Hormuz will help transport oil and other petroleum products from the Persian Gulf to China through Pakistan, saving costs and time. In other words, the Middle East would be connected to the landlocked regions of China.
Thus, despite the fact that Pakistan finds itself in a myriad of problems, it has the propensity to be a strategic pivot in the region; a hub of energy which could help regional integration and economic development. For this to materialize, peace in Afghanistan and Pakistan is of the essence, not to discard the need for normalization of ties with India. Pakistan can change the fate of its populace by availing these opportunities strategically and focus on good governance, which by and large, remains unaddressed.
Picture courtesy of Pakistan Times.
