By Mr. Kung Chan
The war in Ukraine has persisted for over two years, inflicting substantial losses on both Russia and Ukraine. European nations, along with the U.S. under the Biden administration, continue to offer strong military and economic support for Ukraine. However, the changing dynamics on the battlefield and the broader international context are increasingly unfavorable for Ukraine. Notably, the Kursk front has shifted from a Ukrainian offensive to a Russian one, indicating the fluid nature of the front lines, and therefore an understanding of this would be essential for assessing future developments of the situation. As it stands, holding onto unrealistic expectations could prove detrimental to Ukraine.
From the perspective of advancing peace negotiations, the Biden administration has not articulated effective objectives, treating the peace process primarily as a Ukrainian responsibility. During his election campaign, Donald Trump claimed he could swiftly facilitate peace in Ukraine, yet he has not outlined specific goals or strategies, merely stating he would press both sides to negotiate.
Given the current circumstances, a ceasefire along existing front lines could emerge as a viable starting point for peace negotiations. This approach implies a phased resolution rather than an instantaneous one. The initial step would involve a ceasefire, perhaps similar to the Korean War in the 1950s, followed by discussions on territorial disputes and Russia’s global assets, including the sale of oil and gas resources, sanctions relief, and economic recovery. While the objectives of Ukraine and Russia will likely differ, a phased negotiation process could gradually lead to solutions, albeit over an extended period.
Crucially, the term “time” here refers to a peaceful duration, free from loss of life. To pursue realistic peace in Ukraine, all parties, including Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and the United States, must set aside unrealistic aspirations and commit to the only feasible path: achieving a ceasefire along the current front lines, allowing time for the resolution of all issues.
Ultimately, the negotiating table offers a far safer environment for all parties than the battlefield.
About the author:
Mr Kung Chan is the founder of ANBOUND Think Tank. Kung Chan is one of China’s renowned information analysis experts specializing in geopolitical and economic policies.
