By Sazzad Haider

In the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, neither party is likely to emerge as a clear victor or suffer a definitive defeat. There are three potential resolutions to this war.

1. Peace initiatives led by US President Donald Trump could bring a swift end to the conflict. In this scenario, he might collaborate with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Saudi Crown Prince Salman, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to encourage Iran to rejoin nuclear peace negotiations. This approach would preserve the dignity of both Israel and the United States, while also averting the threat of nuclear warfare or a third world war, which is the desire of peace advocates globally.

2. Iran has delivered unexpected developments in the past two to three days of the conflict, with significant damage occurring in the Jewish capital of Tel Aviv. Regardless of official statements, the United States is already covertly involved in this war. Efforts are underway to intercept Iranian missiles targeting Tel Aviv from US naval vessels. However, neither Iranian missiles nor drones are being successfully intercepted. There is no basis for believing that the US is not part of the Israeli strategy against Iran. Trump may have anticipated that Israel would independently handle the destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites, but he underestimated the backlash Israel would face. It is certain that the US Jewish lobby will not remain passive following an Iranian missile strike on Tel Aviv. Therefore, even if the US refrains from formal military engagement, it will be compelled to take action to appease the US Jewish lobby. To achieve this, Trump will need to meet the demands of Israeli Prime minister Netanyahu. The US treasury will have to be significantly depleted to support Israel, providing all types of munitions, including bunker-busting bombs, to ensure Tehran is devastated. There may even be a necessity to supply mini-nuclear bombs to Israel to enable retaliation for the destruction of Tel Aviv. This course of action would prolong the conflict.

3. The third option involves the United States engaging in direct military conflict with Iran. This action would initiate World War III. Should US President Trump abandon his pacifist stance and enter into direct warfare alongside Israel, the United States would bear the full responsibility for the ensuing conflict. Furthermore, Israel is likely to enlist the support of its European allies to combat Iran. In essence, this war would encompass the entire globe. If the United States were to engage in direct conflict with Iran, it would find itself with four nuclear-armed nations—China, Russia, Pakistan, and North Korea—supporting Iran. A significant concern for the United States would be Kim Jong Un, also known as Rocket Boy.  Kim should choose to participate in this conflict on Iran’s behalf, he would not hesitate to deploy nuclear weapons. Consequently, US military bases, as well as its allies Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, could potentially become targets for nuclear strikes.

Beyond Israel, Iran has the capacity to involve the United States in warfare, as the US has already engaged in undeclared hostilities against Iran. The presence of US warships and bases provides support to Israel. It is unlikely that Iran would remain passive for an extended period. Iran may launch attacks on US bases, irrespective of the potential repercussions. The United States might also label Iran as the initial aggressor and seek to obliterate that nation, along with Israel.

Undoubtedly, US involvement in this conflict would have catastrophic implications for the entire world, leading to dire consequences for all nations involved.

An Interview with H.E. Mr. Mammad Ahmadzada, Ambassador of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Kingdom of the Netherlands

In this exclusive interview with Diplomat Magazine, H.E. Ambassador Mammad Ahmadzada of the Republic of Azerbaijan shares insights into his country’s evolving foreign policy priorities and its strategic role in regional connectivity. From energy security to multilateral diplomacy, the ambassador highlights Azerbaijan’s aspirations as a bridge between East and West and a constructive voice in global affairs.

Azerbaijan has recently taken on a more prominent role on the international stage. Could you share the country’s current diplomatic priorities and how they align with its long-term foreign policy objectives?

Azerbaijan pursues an independent, balanced and pragmatic foreign policy based on national interests under the leadership of President Ilham Aliyev.

Since the restoration of its state independence, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy has undergone significant developments. For more than three decades, the main goal of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy was to put an end to the military occupation of its internationally recognized territories by Armenia. In 2023, Azerbaijan fully restored its sovereignty and territorial integrity and thereby established the foundation for a regional order based on international law and justice.

Azerbaijan’s current foreign policy priorities focus on the establishment of peace and security in the region and on a global scale; development of relations with both neighboring and non-neighboring countries based on equality, mutual understanding, respect, trust, and mutually beneficial cooperation; contribution to the global energy security and transregional connectivity; and deepening multilateral engagement by promoting unifying, rather than divisive lines in the world.

These priorities align with Azerbaijan’s foreign policy objectives – namely, safeguarding its national security by neutralizing threats and risks, ensuring sustainable socio-economic development and contributing to a fairer and more inclusive international system.

This alignment has been clearly reflected in our recent diplomatic activities. Azerbaijan’s chairmanship of the Non-Aligned Movement demonstrated our commitment to sovereign equality, multilateralism, and the principle of non-interference. Similarly, the successful hosting of COP29 in Baku reaffirmed our active role in climate diplomacy and our capacity to connect diverse actors around a shared global agenda. Both initiatives embody the essence of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy: responsible, pragmatic, and forward-looking.

Azerbaijan’s geographic advantage, diplomatic agility, resource management, economic and military capabilities have enabled the country to emerge as a middle power. As the largest economy in the South Caucasus, my country is actively shaping the region through investments in transport and energy projects both within and beyond the region.

How would you describe the current state of bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and the Netherlands, and what new areas of cooperation or partnership are being explored?

This year marks 33 years of diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and the Netherlands. Our bilateral relations have evolved significantly since the establishment of embassies in both countries in the early 2000s, which led to a steady expansion of our ties in diverse spheres – from political dialogue and economic collaboration to cultural interaction and educational exchange. The Azerbaijani community in the Netherlands contributes to enhancing people-to-people contacts. Likewise, the Netherlands’ globally respected education system continues to attract Azerbaijani students seeking academic excellence abroad. The double degree program between ADA University and Maastricht University, which has benefited over 120 alumni, is one of the success stories of our cooperation in the field of education.

Economic cooperation is a cornerstone of our relations.​ As of 2024, around 130 Dutch companies operate in Azerbaijan. Dutch expertise in sustainable agriculture, greenhouse technology, and water management has contributed to the modernization of Azerbaijan’s agricultural sector. Dutch companies have also participated in engineering works at the Port of Baku, enhancing its capacity as a multimodal hub. Dutch investments in Azerbaijan total about USD 1.5 billion and Azerbaijani investments in the Netherlands exceed USD 2.5 billion. Bilateral trade increased by 60% in 2024 compared to the previous year, reflecting a higher import of industrial goods and technology from the Netherlands, and growing energy exports from Azerbaijan.​

Nonetheless, I believe we have only begun to tap into the full potential of this relationship. Awareness in the Netherlands about Azerbaijan’s realities, regional leadership, economic potential, its contribution to the energy security of Europe and role as a key transit hub connecting Europe and Asia – remains limited. Additionally, we observe that the perception here concerning the former conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the developments in its aftermath is shaped by Armenian narratives, disinformation and fake news.

Fortunately, recent high-level engagements – between our foreign ministers, and other senior officials – have created new momentum. The political consultations held in Baku between our respective foreign ministries were particularly valuable in promoting mutual understanding and exploring new avenues of cooperation.

Since assuming my post, I have held extensive discussions with Dutch government representatives, members of parliament across the political spectrum, opinion leaders, academia, business community, and media. These engagements reaffirm my conviction that Azerbaijan and the Netherlands have complementary strengths. By focusing on pragmatic, practical and mutually beneficial cooperation – especially in areas such as energy, agriculture, water management, innovation, seaport development, shipbuilding, transport, logistics, and infrastructure – we can build a more robust and result-oriented partnership.

Looking ahead to the NATO Summit in The Hague in 2025, how does Azerbaijan view its partnership with NATO, and in what ways does the country aim to contribute to regional security and collaborative defense efforts within the framework of the NATO Operational Capabilities Concept?

Azerbaijan has developed a substantive relationship with NATO, characterized by meaningful political dialogue and practical cooperation. Azerbaijan has effectively contributed to NATO-led peace operations, in particular in Afghanistan where the forces of Azerbaijan have been served until the very last day of operation. The participation of Azerbaijan in NATO-led operations once again demonstrated the serious commitment of Azerbaijan to foster peace and security.

The practical cooperation with NATO has been instrumental for our country in developing its defense capabilities and interoperability with NATO countries. Azerbaijan is determined to further cooperate with NATO within the PfP program and is interested in making full use of available partnership mechanisms to continue political dialogue and mutually beneficial practical cooperation with the Alliance. Today Azerbaijan maintains its cooperation with NATO on a wide range of issues of mutual interest, including civil emergency planning, science and environment, energy security, humanitarian de-mining, Women, Peace and Security agenda, public diplomacy and many more with a view to contributing to peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area and beyond.

In today’s security environment, the partnership between Azerbaijan and NATO is a promising avenue for future progress. The emergence of new challenges of diverse nature necessitates further development of this partnership in the spirit of collaboration. Azerbaijan is determined to continue to work with NATO towards the vision of building an effective security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic area that is fully responsive to security concerns of all states in line with the principles and purposes of the UN Charter and the Partnership for Peace Framework Document.

In light of recent developments in the South Caucasus, how does Azerbaijan view the prospects for lasting peace and stability in the region? What role do diplomacy and international partnerships play in this process?

Azerbaijan views lasting peace and stability in the South Caucasus as both attainable and essential for the region’s future. Following the full restoration of its territorial integrity – including through the 2020 Patriotic War and counter-terrorism measures in Karabakh in September 2023 – Azerbaijan has consistently demonstrated its readiness to turn the page on conflict and build a future based on cooperation and mutual respect.

The roots of the former conflict lie not in religion or ethnicity – as some narratives falsely suggest – but in Armenia’s territorial claims and decades-long military occupation of Azerbaijani lands. Azerbaijan is a secular state and recognized as one of the world’s major centers of multiculturalism. Ethnic, religious and cultural diversity is the country’s great asset. The military aggression by Armenia against Azerbaijan in 1991-1994 resulted in the occupation of 20 percent of our internationally recognized territories, the ethnic cleansing of more than 1 million Azerbaijanis, expelled from their historical lands, numerous crimes against humanity, the genocide in Khojaly, destruction of all cities, villages and the Azerbaijani cultural and historical monuments in the occupied territories. Armenia ignored numerous documents of different international organizations, including 4 resolutions of the UN Security Council. During the nearly 30-year occupation, Azerbaijan was committed to the peace process and made every effort to end the occupation through political means. However, Armenia’s goal was to strengthen the fait accompli and its illegal separatist puppet regime in the occupied territories.

Even after the Patriotic War, since the beginning of 2021, we have advanced a three-track normalization agenda with Armenia: signing a peace treaty, delimiting and demarcating borders, and reopening regional transport links. Azerbaijan has taken the initiative, submitting the basic principles and the draft treaty, and calling for direct dialogue.

During the years of military occupation, the damage caused by Armenia to Azerbaijani territories amounted to hundreds of billions of dollars. For 4 years Azerbaijan with its own financial resources has carried out major restoration and reconstruction works in those territories. The contamination of these territories with millions of mines by Armenia creates a huge obstacle to these works and poses a serious threat to people’s lives with already 400 casualties during the last 4 years.

Today, we are closer to peace than ever. The draft peace agreement has been negotiated, and the moment is ripe for final decisions. However, two key issues remain unresolved: the need for Armenia to amend its constitution, which contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan, and to formally reject the defunct OSCE Minsk Group, which failed to resolve the conflict and is no longer relevant. From the very beginning of the negotiations Azerbaijan has consistently raised these two issues.

Azerbaijan believes that diplomacy – grounded in respect for international law – must be the foundation of regional peace. We have welcomed constructive engagement from partners including the European Union, while maintaining a firm preference for direct negotiations between the two countries.

The Hague, as a global city of peace and justice, is a fitting place to reaffirm that Azerbaijan has restored both historical justice and international law. Our vision is clear: a peaceful, economically connected South Caucasus that benefits all countries of the region and links Europe with the Caspian and Central Asia. Peace cannot rest on words alone, but must be built through real deeds. We have demonstrated patience, responsibility, and leadership. Now, the choice lies with Armenia, which should act swiftly to remove the two aforementioned obstacles.

Azerbaijan has been strengthening its economic and strategic ties beyond its immediate neighborhood. How is the country leveraging its geographic position and resources to build new global alliances and economic corridors, such as the Middle Corridor initiative?

Azerbaijan’s large energy resources and geographic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia have long been among its key strategic assets. In the 1990s, thanks to the leadership and strategy of national leader Heydar Aliyev, Azerbaijan opened the South Caucasus and Caspian region to international cooperation, attracting major energy companies to develop its rich oil and gas fields. This strategy has successfully continued by President Ilham Aliyev and completely changed the energy map of Eurasia. Strategic pipelines, including Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Southern Gas Corridor connecting the Caspian Sea with the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, created by Azerbaijan together with its partners, have facilitated the transportation of energy resources of the Caspian Sea to world markets, especially Europe, while strengthening the independence of the countries of the region and making a significant contribution to Europe’s energy security.

MoU on a Strategic Partnership in the Field of Energy, signed between Azerbaijan and the European Union in 2022, includes a goal to double Azerbaijani gas exports to the EU by 2027 and to generate electricity from renewable energy sources in Azerbaijan for export to Europe. We have consistently increased our gas exports to Europe, now supply gas to ten European countries and also expanding our geography of export. In 2024 natural gas export of Azerbaijan reached 25 billion cubic meters, we are planning to increase gas exports to 8 billion cubic meters by 2030.

Azerbaijan also has huge potential to become a renewable energy powerhouse and is investing together with foreign investors in green energy. Our green agenda is very ambitious. Together with Hungary, Georgia and Romania, we are developing the Green Energy Corridor to transmit electricity from the Caspian Sea to Europe. We are also working with Central Asian partners – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to involve them in this project. The green agenda will satisfy the growing needs for electricity in Azerbaijan and several other countries, as well as save several billion cubic meters of gas to be available for export.

Our agenda with respect to COP29 was very pragmatic. In November 2024, Azerbaijan successfully hosted COP29, achieving historic results called “Baku Breakthrough”, such as Baku Finance Goal, framework for carbon markets, and launch of the Loss and Damage Fund. One of Azerbaijan’s roles at COP29 was to build bridges between Global South and Global North. We also announced a special financial package for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) at COP29 and continue our efforts to help those needing the support.

For the second time in the last thirty years, Azerbaijan has opened the South Caucasus and Caspian region to international cooperation due to its strategic geographical location. In recent years, Azerbaijan has intensified efforts to translate its location into tangible economic and geopolitical advantage by investing in connectivity, infrastructure, and regional cooperation.

One of the most significant developments in this regard is Azerbaijan’s role in the Middle Corridor – the Trans-Caspian East-West trade and transport route linking China and Central Asia with Europe via the South Caucasus and the Black Sea. As a core transit country, Azerbaijan has made major investments in rail, port, and highway infrastructure, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, the Port of Baku in Alat, and modernized customs and logistics facilities. These efforts are aimed at positioning Azerbaijan as a key logistical hub in the emerging East–West trade architecture. Beyond physical infrastructure, Azerbaijan is also active in political and institutional coordination across the region, working closely with partners such as Türkiye, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and others to simplify customs procedures, harmonize regulations, and ensure the corridor’s efficiency and reliability.

These efforts are aligned with our broader strategic vision: to transform Azerbaijan to a regional economic connector and a reliable partner in global supply chains, including green energy, digital trade, and logistics. This transformation not only serves our national interests but contributes to broader regional stability and economic integration.

Disclaimer:
Diplomat Magazine is a neutral and independent publication. The views and opinions expressed in this interview are those of the ambassador and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Diplomat Magazine or its editorial team.

By Jesinta Adams

Yet another exciting session of the ‘Understanding AI Program’ presented by the Silkroad 4.0 Platform, the International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES), European Perspectives, through the forthcoming Global Academy for Geo-politico-tech Futures (GPTF), and their consortium of partners (such as the D-8, ICCD, IAF, THC, Diplomatic Academy, Diplomatic Magazine, and the like), turned the focus on how AI is reshaping global security, defence strategies, and geopolitical power dynamics. This round of mesmerising and farfetched talks, under the theme of “Defensive Modernisation as the Technology Driver”, offered timely and insightful exchanges that bridged military innovation with ethical, legal, and global implications.

The 3rd round of mesmerising lectures explored various critical themes: how human presence-eliminating technologies are altering security doctrines, the geopolitical implications of multi-spatial tech reach, and the legal and ethical challenges in regulating AI across borders. Other discussion points included sovereignty and security in the digital age, the role of AI in major military confrontation theatres, and the urgent need for global governance frameworks to manage this transformation.

The first keynote guest, Ambassador Ali Goutali, of the Jeddah-based OIC, brought a diplomatic and scholarly lens to the conversation. With over two decades of ambassadorial service and a strong academic background, Ambassador Goutali reminded us of the dual nature of AI. He described AI as a force of promise — for knowledge-sharing among nations, early warning systems for pandemics, and enhanced surveillance — but also one of equal risk. Ambassador warned that AI, if unchecked, could dismantle governments and destabilise wisdom-based governance.

This top MENA diplomat from Tunisia called for the establishment of global conventions on AI use, similar to the Geneva Conventions, to protect humanity and maintain ethical boundaries. His conclusion was clear: more member states must actively engage in AI protocols to prevent future misuse.

Multi-spatial and multidimensional nature of future wars

In the second keynote, former Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Croatia Admiral Davor Domazet-Lošo shared his insights on evolving military doctrines. A former combat commander, and later prolific author on military strategy, Admiral Domazet-Lošo explored the rise of information warfare. He warned that such warfare blocks a person’s ability to think independently — an effect that can be seen even among world leaders. He cited China’s AI capabilities as being significantly ahead of the United States and spoke of China’s “deep seek” AI system, which, in his words, embodies the true potential of artificial intelligence. He emphasised that AI-driven military strategy is now operating in hyper-real time, reducing detection and response time from one hour to mere seconds (doctrines of real time shifting to the network doctrines of hyper-real time). The goal for all militaries, he suggested, is to discover, decide, and destroy — faster than ever before.

Hyper-real time warfare naturally blurs the boundary between perception and action, where information dominance and computational speed become as critical as kinetic force. This doctrine will surely raise significant ethical, legal, and strategic challenges, including concerns over human oversight, escalatory dynamics and de-escalatory potentials, false data entries and accuracy and speed of mistake detection and correction – hence an entire reliability of real-time data streams.

Based on his previous exchanges (on the trajectory of Asian security) with the ‘Understanding AI’ program originator, prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic, Admiral Lošo singled out the military theatre more neuralgic than the current ones in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East: “The hyper real-time potential of combat in Indo-Pacific, so packed with mega-demographies and mega-economies, hence projection drives is possible yet still avoidable. It would be a sobering study in technological velocity and strategic ambiguity to analyse every perspective thoroughly. Unlike the Adriatic or even Mediterranean, where engagements are relatively constrained by geography and proximities of all sorts, the Indo-Pacific – especially Malacca Straits and South China Sea – is a volatile mesh of overlapping claims, promising yet imperfect unmanned systems, (inadequately tested) hypersonic threats, and AI-driven targeting loops.

In such an environment – including the inner seas of archipelagic states of Indonesia and the Philippines, but also Malaysia and VietNam, decision cycles will be compressed to seconds, not hours, with autonomous swarms and satellite-linked ISR platforms dictating the tempo. As a former Chief-of Staff, admiral and combat army officer of a historic naval country (right between Ancient Greece and Roman Empire, Phoenicians and Venetians), I would note with high concern how conventional naval doctrine falters when even milliseconds of latency could determine the survivability of a ship—raising critical questions about control, accountability, and escalation in a digitally saturated battlespace where the line between provocation and war is algorithmically blurred.“

Takeaways from Singapore

The main speaker for the session was Lily Ong, a geopolitical and cybersecurity analyst from Singapore. A former Track I and Track II diplomat in the United States, Ong took a brief departure from her attendance at the Global Digital Forum to deliver a compelling presentation on how AI is transforming global power dynamics. She walked us through AI’s military applications — from automated defence systems and predictive analytics to offensive cyber operations and information warfare. Ong emphasised that AI is not only changing how wars are fought but also how power is projected and negotiated. Her talk also explored the ethical and legal questions surrounding AI-enabled warfare, and she challenged us to think about the shifting nature of trust, sovereignty, and responsibility in a hyper-connected world.

One of the most striking moments in her presentation was her response to a participant who asked why countries would pursue such advanced AI capabilities if they introduce greater instability. Her answer was sobering: “The genie is already out of the bag – there’s no putting it back.” Instead, countries — especially those in the Global South — must focus on keeping up, not only to stay relevant but to protect themselves. She stressed that education is key to this transformation and urged the Global South to come to the AI table so that they could contribute to capacity building through education, innovation, and shared expertise.

Ong concluded by accentuating that the new arms race formulated upon technological sovereignty would enable more actors – including smaller states and non-state actors – to shoot above their calibre, introducing a layer of complexity to the AI-enabled warfare environment.

The session closed with a unifying message from all speakers: the urgency for better global protocols, more inclusive international participation, and a deeper emphasis on education. The generational gap was also addressed, with a call for both the tech-fluent younger generation and the cautious older generation to learn about AI risks and opportunities — together. It is no longer an option to retreat – adaptation is imperative.

The third session of the extraordinary Program, unparalleled anyone in the world provided not only deep strategic insights but also a human-centred reflection on the challenges we face as AI advances at breakneck speed. From military use to global governance, the message was consistent: AI is here, and it demands collective oversight and responsibility.

The fascinating and content intensive voyage of knowledge sets its uncharted waters sail. It will reach its next mesmerising port of wisdom and insights on 12^th of June by hosting the new round of fascinating keynotes and lecturers.

About the author:

Jesinta Adams is a rising voice in the field of AI operations and data services. She is the Founder of SouthLoop Data Africa, a human-in-the-loop data labelling company focused on providing clean, accurate datasets for AI development while creating opportunities for skilled youth and women in the Global South.

She currently heads the invoice processing division at a US-based tech company, overseeing AI-driven data annotation, validation, and financial automation processes. She is a passionate advocate for digital inclusion, capacity building, and ethical AI.