Hydrogen: Obligation or hype in global energy transition

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Hydrogen: Obligation or hype in global energy transition

By Hrishikesh Chinchkar, M.SC. – Researcher in Renewable Energy and Stakeholder Engagement at Kelso Institute Europe

We are living in a time of unprecedented technological advancement, making our lives increasingly comfortable. However, have you ever considered how our growing luxurious lifestyles impact the environment? Between 1970 and 2019, approximately 11072 weather, climate, and water-related disasters were reported resulting in 2.06 million deaths and $3.64 trillion in economic losses. These incidents underscore the urgent need to transition from fossil-based energy systems to renewable ones, aiming to keep the global average temperature rise well below 2°C while striving at limiting it to 1.5°C.

The adoption of the Paris Agreement and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has catalysed the global energy transition. Investment in renewables by both developed and emerging economies has significantly increased the share of renewables over the last decade. The European Union (EU) has emerged as a global leader in fostering clean energy, increasing the share of renewable sources from 16.5% in 2013 to approximately a quarter of total energy consumption in 2023.

However, decarbonizing energy-intensive industries (EIIs) is paramount to achieving the Paris Agreement goals. The steel and chemical industries, responsible for 7% and 5% of global CO2 emissions respectively, face significant challenges in decarbonisation due to the need for high process temperatures, capital-intensive and long-lived assets, significant infrastructure upgrades, and lack of conducive policies. Hydrogen has emerged as the frontrunner in decarbonising EIIs, prompting 61 countries to unveil national hydrogen strategies. Globally, 1600-1800 hydrogen projects are in development, signifying the critical role of hydrogen in transforming the energy system. Transitioning from fossil-based hydrogen to clean hydrogen offers an opportunity to save a gigatonne of global CO2 emissions annually.

Why Investment in Hydrogen is an Obligation and Opportunity, Not Hype

The global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation to address severe threats of climate change, ensure energy security, and fostering economic growth. The Russian invasion of Ukraine exposed the EU’s vulnerability due to its high dependence on fossil fuels, prompting reforms to reduce reliance on Russian gas. Similarly, many countries are formulating energy policies to lessen dependence on fossil fuels. Hydrogen has emerged as a key player in advancing the future global energy system.

Although the share of renewables is rapidly increasing in the global energy mix, certain sectors require special attention for decarbonisation. The steel and chemical industries are crucial to the global economy, providing employment to millions and serving as the backbone for many dependent industries. Currently, no mature alternative technologies exist to decarbonise these sectors. Blast furnaces are widely used for crude steel production is primarily rely on fossil fuels. Coke derived from fossil fuels, is used as a reducing agent to convert iron ore into molten iron, resulting in significant emissions. Immense research is underway to use renewable hydrogen as a substitute for coke in blast furnaces. The Swedish company H2 Green Steel has demonstrated that using hydrogen can reduce emissions by up to 95% compared to traditional blast furnace technology. Refurbishing existing blast furnaces to inject hydrogen offers significant potential to reduce process emissions. For instance, producing one tonne of hot rolled coil emits 1850 kg of CO2 via the traditional route while the hydrogen-based route emits only 196 kg of CO2.

Similarly, using renewable hydrogen to produce ammonia has the potential to save approximately 2-2.5 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of ammonia produced. The Haber-Bosch process is widely used for ammonia synthesis and primarily relies on hydrogen derived from natural gas, coal, and oil responsible for significant GHG emissions. Various processes, such as electrolysis powered by renewables, biomass-derived hydrogen, biological hydrogen production, and nuclear-powered electrolysis, offer alternatives to produce green or low-carbon ammonia. Therefore, low-carbon or green hydrogen presents immense potential to decarbonise EIIs.

Additionally, renewable energy sources depend on natural resources like solar insolation, wind speed, and biomass. Hydrogen offers numerous opportunities, such as storing excess electricity produced from renewables, facilitating sector integration, and optimizing the grid. The rising share of renewables makes the existing grid infrastructure vulnerable to surplus generation. Moreover, substantial investment and digitalization are required to optimize renewable energy consumption. Hydrogen plays a crucial role in optimizing renewable energy use and prolonging investment in upgrading the grid infrastructure.

Key Risks and Challenges in Clean Hydrogen Investment

Despite the promising potential, clean hydrogen projects face significant risks and challenges, particularly in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs). Key deterrents for public and private financial institutions include:

  1. Uncertain Market Demand: The lack of credible off-takers and price volatility creates uncertainty deterring investment.
  2. High Cost of Finance: Political risks and market uncertainties elevate the cost of finance, making projects less attractive.
  3. Infrastructure and Technology Risks: Significant investment is required for infrastructure development and technology adoption adding to financial risk.

Economic and Risk Mitigation Instruments

To mobilize private capital and help projects achieve Final Investment Decision (FID), several economic and risk mitigation instruments should be developed:

  1. Off-take Guarantees: Ensuring demand by guaranteeing purchase agreements.
  2. Political Risk Insurance: Protecting investments against political instability.
  3. Technology Performance Guarantees: Assuring investors of the reliability and efficiency of new technologies.
  4. Foreign Currency Guarantees: Mitigating risks associated with currency fluctuations.

Governments, international financial institutions, and insurance companies like Swiss Re are well-positioned to develop and implement these instruments.

Supporting International Financing Initiatives

Governments and International Finance Institutions (IFIs) can support the coordination of international financing initiatives for clean hydrogen by:

  1. Creating Joint Financing Partnerships: Collaborating with multiple stakeholders to pool resources and share risks.
  2. Establishing Multi-Stakeholder Platforms: Facilitating transparent interactions and harmonizing processes among various actors.
  3. Standardizing Contracts: Streamlining transactions and creating governance accountability to spur market growth.

Conclusion

The rising threat of climate change, increasing energy demand, geopolitical conflicts, and pressure to meet decarbonisation goals have prompted countries to adopt sustainable energy policies. Hydrogen is seen as a prominent alternative for the global energy transition. The enthusiasm for hydrogen in the global energy market is justified in many ways. However, issues surrounding the exploitation of resources required for hydrogen technologies, such as the displacement of indigenous communities and energy colonialism, need to be addressed to ensure a just transition. Additionally, the massive investment required to facilitate hydrogen transport and storage presents a challenge.

Hydrogen is not just an obligation but an opportunity to meet climate targets and ensure energy security in the face of growing geopolitical conflicts. It is a critical component in the global energy transition, with the potential to revolutionize the energy landscape and contribute significantly to a sustainable future.

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Zelenskyy’s three perils

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Zelenskyy’s three perils

By Sazzad Haider

This month, the Ukraine crisis has taken a new turn. As usual, every day Ukraine is constantly losing ground and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is begging the West for more weapons. And he is assuring his people that Russia will soon be defeated.

Three events this month could have major implications for the war in Ukraine.

The first event was, in the British general election the defeat of Rishi Sunak, one of the mastermind of the Ukraine war. But the election results of UK election is not a big concern for President Zelenskyy. The Labor Party promised him long ago as saying: “if there is a change of government after the election, there will be no change in Britain’s resolve to stand with Ukraine, confront Russian aggression and pursue [Russian President Vladimir] Putin for his war crimes.”

However the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer may not be as generous as Sunak in helping Ukraine.

While Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is not too much worried about the results of the British elections, the upcoming US elections have enough reasons for him to worry about. Republican candidate Donald Trump is likely to win the November election.

Trump said that he could end the Ukraine war ‘within 24 hours’ if he won the November elections. According to U.S. media Trump would shift the U.S. position on Ukraine. Moreover, he will create a two-tier NATO system; only members who met the 2 percent spending threshold would get the “security guarantee of the U.S.

Vladimir Putin responded with great enthusiasm for trump’s desire to stop war. Putin said that he took Trump’s words seriously. While Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reacted with shock and dismay to the remarks of Trump. “If Trump knows how to finish this war, he should tell us today,” Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy  said.

In his previous tenure as US President, Donald Trump was the pathfinder of 21-century’s American Isolationist policy as he adopted his “America First” agenda to retreat from a leading contributor to its traditional allies. He raised the question of the existence of NATO and pushed the alliance to the verge of break up.

He pulled out from the Paris climate treaty, the Iranian nuclear deal and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. He also reduced the US’ global responsibilities in the UNESCO, the United Nations Human Rights Council and the World Health Organization.  Significantly, he began a large repatriation of U.S. soldiers from Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.  

In October 2019, Trump launched a drive to withdraw the US troops from northern Syria.  Trump also restrained from the opportunity to oust Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.  In his tenure, former US President Donald Trump also avoided further direct war. 

If Trump is elected he would convince Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to sign a peace treaty with Russia. Ukraine does not have the ability to continue a one-hour war with Russia without the US support. There is no doubt that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will have to make a huge concession for this. The concession that the late Statesman Henry Kissinger had spoken of at the beginning of the war.

In 2022, Former U.S. secretary of state Henry A. Kissinger said at a conference at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia to help end the invasion as a vast majority of Ukrainians are against the war. He also urged the United States and the West to not seek an embarrassing defeat for Russia in Ukraine, warning it could worsen Europe’s long-term stability.

One of the goals of the Ukraine war was to strengthen the security of NATO countries by defeating Russia and expanding NATO. But after two years of war and not being able to defeat Putin, the whole of Europe is now suffering from depression. Apart from military and economic support to Ukraine, the burden of Ukrainian refugees has exhausted Europe. This has created a division between NATO countries. The latest Moscow visit of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin has unearthed the NATO division.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen criticized Orban’s Moscow visit, termed “appeasement will not stop” Putin. Now we have to wait and see, what kind of measures NATO will take against the Hungarian Prime Minister in the wake of this unexpected visit.

Without a doubt, a cease-fire without the recovery of all Ukrainian territory would be a failure of NATO and in the future no country would step into NATO’s fold like Ukraine. On the other hand, if Trump wins the US election, it will be seen how effective NATO will be.

At this moment there is no chance of stopping the war in Ukraine. Because Putin will not give back the won land of Ukraine in any order. On the other hand, it is not possible for Zelenskyy to sign a peace agreement without recovering the occupied territories. But if Trump wins, or if the U.S. wants to, peace is possible at a moment’s notice. Because the United States has many examples of running away leaving its best allies in danger. In the last century, this kind of incident happened in Vietnam or Iran and recently in Afghanistan. So no matter what the mouth says, it is clear that President Zelenskyy is in great danger.

Eurasian dimensions of Belarus’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

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Eurasian dimensions of Belarus’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

At the summit held on 3-4 July 2024 in the Kazakh capital, Astana, the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) signed the “Astana Declaration,” formally approving Belarus’s accession to the organisation as its tenth member state.

Belarus’s membership in this organisation holds a strategic geopolitical dimension, as the country borders three EU member states, as well as Russia to the east and northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. This summit marked the inaugural meeting in the “SCO Plus” format, which includes 10 member states and 14 dialogue partner states. Dialogue partner status has been available since 2008. Guest participants at the summit included the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the United Nations, and Turkmenistan.

The SCO is the successor of the Shanghai Five, established in 1996 by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan in response to security threats posed by terrorism and separatism in Central Asia. These concerns intensified, particularly following the US military intervention in Afghanistan. In its foreign policy, the organisation adheres to the principles of non-alignment, cooperation with other countries and regions, and openness to the outside world. The organisation has since evolved into the largest and most populous comprehensive regional organisation in the world in terms of geographical scope and population size, covering approximately 80% of Eurasia and 40% of the global population. As of 2023, its aggregated GDP accounted for about 32% of the global total GDP[2]. Turkey, a NATO member, holds dialogue partner status alongside other states that belong to the Western economic and military structure, such as Egypt, Israel, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain.

The advantages of Belarus’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

Belarus’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is significant from several perspectives. Initially established as a regional organisation of Asia-Pacific countries, the SCO has now expanded to include a Euro-Asian dimension with Belarus’s inclusion. For Belarus, joining the SCO marks a notable shift in Minsk’s official foreign policy towards the East. This transformation began four years ago, particularly after the turbulent opposition demonstrations following the elections, in which the West attempted to interfere with the results to overthrow President Alexander Lukashenko‘s government. It became clear that the previous multilateral approach, which relied on balancing relations with both the West and Russia, was futile. This approach failed to provide external security for Belarus, instead making the country more vulnerable to external threats and placing it in a precarious position and vacuum between major powers, as it was not institutionally aligned with either side. Belarus has identified key priorities for its SCO membership, aiming to develop economic cooperation with the East and aspiring to act as a bridge connecting the SCO with the European Union.

In line with the “Astana Declaration,” Belarus places importance on and is committed to fostering a more representative, equitable, and pluralistic global order. It believes that cooperation within the SCO can serve as a foundation for a more equitable and balanced security structure in Eurasia and globally while upholding principles of peaceful dispute resolution, non-use of force, and non-interference in the internal affairs of states. The declaration also underscores the necessity of respecting each state’s right to independently choose its form of internal governance and development paths.

Belarus’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation further underscores its distinct political trajectory compared to its post-Soviet neighbours — Poland, the Baltic states, and Ukraine—where the trend towards integration into Euro-Atlantic structures has been accompanied by increasing Russophobia and populist rhetoric. This trend has often proved more detrimental than beneficial to Western interests.

In the early 1990s, it seemed that Belarus was poised to follow a similarly perilous path. Why did this not happen? The reason lies in the fact that Russophobia based on local ethnic nationalism was not as deeply ingrained in Belarusian society as it was in the Baltic states and Ukraine. This allowed Belarus to engage with its Western and Eastern neighbours in a more measured and pragmatic manner, free from ideological constraints and stereotypes.

Western analysts approach the expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) into Belarus with scepticism, often characterising it as a Chinese geopolitical initiative aimed at countering both Russia and the EU and viewing it as a potential manifestation of Chinese hegemony. However, the SCO includes countries like India, which are geopolitical rivals of China and have frequent border disputes. This illustrates that the SCO operates within a multilateral framework designed to coordinate the sometimes conflicting interests of major Eurasian actors. This is evidenced by Turkey’s participation in a recent summit, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in attendance, reflecting Ankara’s desire, as a NATO member, to upgrade its status from a dialogue partner to a full member of the SCO. This move is part of Turkey’s broader strategy to enhance its relations with both the West and, simultaneously, with Russia and China. Turkey acts as a bridge connecting the SCO with the EU, while Belarus represents the final station and gateway to Western Europe. The participation of UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the Astana summit reflects the UN’s ambition to position itself as an inclusive organisation that engages with all major international actors.

Belarus has substantial economic interests in cooperating with SCO countries, especially China, to leverage Chinese railway routes for accessing existing trade ports and establishing new trade routes between Europe and the East. As a landlocked country, Belarus has no choice but to strengthen its involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (B&R). Rail and road transport have historically been vital for Belarusian exports, but their importance has drastically declined since Belarus lost access to the Baltic and Ukrainian ports due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Eurasia as the epicentre of future geopolitical conflict

Belarus’s accession to the SCO as a full member is seen as a move with significant political and security implications, especially amidst the intensifying confrontation between the West and Russia in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. This development aligns with the organisation’s aspirations to become a power centre that serves as a counterbalance to Western institutions, particularly NATO. However, internal disagreements and a lack of consensus among member states could constrain these ambitions and undermine the organisation’s effectiveness and regional importance. The primary challenge lies in the struggle for influence, particularly between China and Russia. China seeks to advance its commercial interests through the Belt and Road Initiative and the Central Corridor project (TUTIT), which extends from China through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan in Central Asia, reaching the Caspian Sea and extending to Europe via Turkish railways and ports.

The decline in freight traffic by the Belarusian State Railway Company (BCh) from January to September 2024 is attributed to Belarus’s pivot towards utilizing Chinese land routes for its imports and exports. This shift may help Belarus generate additional revenue through parallel channels.

Analysts suggest that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) remains a major global player with increasing regional and international significance, despite uncertainties about its future direction and nature. The question remains whether the SCO will evolve into an anti-Western and effectively adversarial platform or whether it will succeed in establishing itself as a viable economic and security alliance alongside NATO. Such ambitions depend on the organisation’s ability to achieve internal coordination and prevent disputes from escalating in ways that could undermine its future and cohesion.

Chinese military exercises in Belarus

China and Belarus recently completed a joint military exercise held from July 8 to 19, 2024, near the Belarusian city of Brest, just five kilometres from the border with Poland, a NATO member. The manoeuvres, named “Eagle Assault,” lasted 11 days and took place just before the NATO leaders’ summit in Washington from July 9 to 11, 2024. Belarus has characterized these military exercises as a response to the “aggressive foreign policy of the West towards Belarus” and to “Ukrainian provocations.”[3]

The Chinese Ministry of Defense stated that the exercises aimed to enhance the training and coordination capabilities of the participating military forces, as well as to deepen practical cooperation between the two countries’ armed forces. A delegation from the Chinese Central Military Commission also held talks in Minsk, where both sides discussed the prospects for Belarusian-Chinese military training cooperation and agreed on new areas of collaboration. This latest demonstration of their security and defence capabilities and partnership comes just days after Belarus acceded to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which is supported by both Beijing and Moscow.

Belarusian-Chinese military exercises demonstrate that President Lukashenko is pursuing a multilateral policy and is not merely a satellite of Moscow, as he is often portrayed within the EU. It is premature to discuss a division of influence between Russia and China within Belarus, which maintains a high degree of sovereignty and will seek to further strengthen it. This includes diversifying its foreign relations with major players such as the United States and the European Union, in addition to China and Russia.

EU policy towards Belarus

Belarus is one of the few European countries that has not sought membership in the European Union, nor has the EU extended an offer of membership to Minsk.

The European Economic Community (EEC) recognised Belarus’s independence in 1991, and Belarus has signed several bilateral and multilateral agreements with the EU. In 1995, Belarus and the EU signed a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, but this agreement was never ratified by the EU. Belarus is a member of the EU’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences[4] for trade relations and is also part of the EU’s Eastern Partnership[5]. Relations between Belarus and the EU began to deteriorate after Alexander Lukashenko was elected President in 1994, and Belarus was excluded from the European Neighbourhood Policy in response to the establishment of an authoritarian regime under Lukashenko.

There have been periods of improved relations between Belarus and the EU. In 2015, the EU suspended most sanctions against Belarusian officials. In 2016, the travel ban imposed on Lukashenko in 2000 was lifted. That same year, two opposition candidates were elected to the Belarusian parliament[6], and the death penalty was suspended. These developments were seen by some EU officials as steps towards democratisation. However, certain power centres and lobbying groups have pursued a different path, focusing on destabilising the country.

Relations between Belarus and the EU reached their lowest point following opposition protests held after the presidential elections in August 2020. The EU imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials responsible for “violence and election fraud.”[7]

Historical experience has likely played a role in shaping the EU’s stance, particularly due to the negative attitudes of the Baltic EU member states towards Belarus. The transition of the Baltic states from being part of the Soviet Union (USSR) to full EU and NATO membership has transformed their historical grievances into frustrations regarding their shared Soviet past. This aspect has, in many instances, negatively affected EU-Belarus relations.

The EU should formulate its policy based on a positive, cooperative approach that encourages rather than deters engagement, leaving no room for historical grievances, regardless of their origins.

Analysts argue that the EU needs to adopt a more balanced, substantive, and cautious policy towards Belarus, avoiding the influence of unilateral interests from neighbouring countries, primarily Poland and the Baltic states, which have historical grievances and their own bilateral interests and disputes. It is already evident that some neighbouring countries have exploited their EU membership to place Belarusian individuals and companies on the EU’s “blacklist,” largely driven by their own unilateral interests and subjective perceptions.

U.S. policy towards Belarus

The United States recognized the independence of the Republic of Belarus in 1991, and on 28 December 1991, Belarus and the United States established diplomatic relations.

The United States encouraged Belarus to conclude an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and adhere to the agreed-upon measures within the framework of macroeconomic stabilization programs and other reforms, including the commitment to accelerate the privatization process to create a more favourable business and investment climate. Although there were some direct U.S. private investments in Belarus, their scale did not expand significantly due to the slow pace of reforms.

The golden period in the normalisation of relations with the U.S. occurred following the visit of U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton to Minsk on 29 August 2019. During this visit, Bolton met with Lukashenko to discuss improving relations between the two countries. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also visited Belarus for the first time in 26 years to offer American assistance following Russia’s decision to halt energy supplies to Belarus[8]. The U.S. State Department described the purpose of the visit as an effort to reaffirm the United States’ commitment to Belarus’s sovereignty, independence, stability, and prosperity, and demonstrate a desire to normalise bilateral relations.

President Donald Trump, in line with his foreign policy doctrine, faced criticism from major media outlets both in the U.S. and internationally. Nine days after the outbreak of unrest following the elections in Belarus, he coldly remarked, “I like seeing democracy,” adding, “‘Democracy’ is a very important word. It doesn’t seem like it’s too much democracy there, in Belarus.” He noted that the protests were “peaceful,” without addressing the violence that occurred after the elections, and added, “I support democracy.” To conclude any further discussion, he stated, “Okay, any other question?”[9]

“America First” is the foreign policy doctrine promoted and adopted by Donald Trump during his first presidential term (2017-2021). This doctrine emphasizes prioritizing American interests in international affairs, even if it contradicts the principles of multilateral cooperation traditionally upheld by U.S. diplomacy. If Trump is re-elected as President, a key question is how his policies might affect transatlantic relations between the United States and Europe.

By selecting James David Vance as his vice-presidential candidate, Donald Trump sent a clear signal to the world that the United States would shift towards isolationism. Vance has limited experience in foreign policy. In an interview with right-wing journalist and political consultant Steve Bannon, Vance stated, “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” He is one of the most vocal critics of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, urging Kyiv to halt military operations and urgently negotiate with Putin while dismissing the feasibility of restoring Ukraine’s pre-war borders. His doctrine is clear: “Ukraine must accept the results of the war with Russia without U.S. support.”[10]

Trump’s potential re-election could alter how the United States perceives issues related to the European Union, including the conflict in Ukraine and certainly in relations with Belarus.

Could Belarus play a key role in peace efforts in Ukraine?

Re-elected European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (EPP/CDU) addressed the European Parliament, stating: “Europe cannot control dictators and demagogues around the world, but we can decide to protect our own democracy. Europe cannot decide elections across the globe, but we can decide to invest in the security and defence of our continent. Europe cannot stop change, but we can choose to embrace it by investing in a new era of prosperity and improving our quality of life.[11]” In doing so, Von der Leyen indirectly acknowledged the mistake made in 2020 when the EU directly intervened in the Belarusian presidential election by supporting opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and imposing sanctions on Belarus. This action isolated Belarus at a time when it might have been closest to the EU and pushed it into Russia’s embrace.

Analysts believe that the EU should avoid repeating past mistakes regarding Belarus and should return to the level of engagement it had after the signing of the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements. The EU needs to leverage Belarus’s role to achieve a viable peace solution for Ukraine, as peace will not materialize on its own without significant effort and activity. The withdrawal of Belarusian forces from the Ukrainian border is seen as a positive signal, indicating readiness to initiate negotiations between the warring parties with the involvement of the international community. As an organization initially founded as a peace project, the EU should not abandon its commitment to peace. It must ensure that Ukrainian neighbours, who may have their own particular interests and even candid aspirations towards Ukraine and Belarus, are excluded from the peace process. Tsikhanouskaya, as a product of both the EU and Belarusian neighbour’s interference, underscores this issue. Peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved unless the actors on the other side of the front lines demonstrate genuine interest. This time, the message coming through Belarus and Minsk could be a crucial step in that direction. The upcoming U.S. presidential elections should provide additional impetus for reaching a peace solution for Ukraine.

Published by IFIMES Ljubljana/Bruxelles/Washington/Minsk, 26 July 2024           

Footnotes:
[1]  IFIMES – International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives.”

[2] The International Monetary Fund (IMF): World Economic Outlook database: April 2024, link: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/

[3] China and Belarus hold joint drills near Polish border ahead of NATO summit, link: www.politico.eu/article/china-bealrus-polish-border-nato-summit-drill-ukraine-russia-war-defense-aggression-fight-ministry/

[4] The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) is a preferential tariff system that allows for reduced tariffs on various products. The concept of GSP differs significantly from the “Most-Favored-Nation” (MFN) principle. Available at: https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/belarus_en 

[5] The Eastern Partnership (EaP) is a joint initiative of the European Union, its member states, and six Eastern European countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Available at: www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/eap_factsheet_belarus_eng.pdf 

[6] Anna Konopatskaya, of the United Civic party, won a district in Minsk, and Yelena Anisim, of the Belarusian Language Society, also won a seat. Available at: www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/12/belarus-activists-unmoved-election-two-opposition-mps-lukashenko

[7] EU announces sanctions against Belarus over ‘violence’ on protesters and electoral ‘falsification’. Available at: www.euronews.com/2020/08/14/eu-announces-sanctions-against-belarus-over-violence-on-protesters-and-electoral-falsifica

[8] Pompeo says US can supply Belarus with 100% of oil, gas. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/863371d1353f29fb38b27fe0e5027b8e

[9] Opinion  Trump’s strange silence on Belarus. Available at: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trumps-strange-silence-on-belarus/2020/08/21/698cf4f0-e3d1-11ea-8dd2-d07812bf00f7_story.html

[10] Trump’s choice of Vance ‘terrible news’ for Ukraine. Available at: www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/17/trump-jd-vance-vp-ukraine

[11] Statement at the European Parliament Plenary by President Ursula von der Leyen, candidate for a second mandate 2024-2029, Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_24_3871

Hindutva and Zionism: A Marriage of Convenience

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Hindutva and Zionism: A Marriage of Convenience

By Fatima Saleem

The resurgence of fascism in global politics has led to an uptick in incidents of ultra-nationalism, racism, Islamophobia and intolerance. Both; Zionism and Hindutva are premised on similar beliefs and are deeply embedded in the teachings of ethno-nationalist far-right. The two have joined hands to form an ideological bond having direct implications for domestic, regional and global politics.

According to orthodox Jewish traditions, Jews are forbidden from forming a state of their own until the arrival of their Messiah, and doing otherwise is considered blasphemous. But this has not stopped the Zionists from pursuing their agenda. Historically, Zionism emerged in 1897 as a result of political developments in Eastern Europe where Jews were facing mass persecution. Its founder Theodor Herzl, advocated for the formation of a separate Jewish state in Palestine. The Jerusalem program is the guiding principle of Zionism and broadly aims to promote the unity of the Jewish people, ensure the centrality of the State of Israel and Jerusalem, promote Jewish migration (Aliyah) to Israel and ensure integration of immigrants, strengthen Israel as a Zionist state, fight anti-Semitism and make the country an expression of practical Zionism.

The program was first adopted in 1951 and has undergone multiple revisions. The left-wing Zionists are more secular while the right-wing Zionists promote a government centered on Jewish religious traditions. According to Henry Kissinger, Israel never had a foreign policy, only domestic politics. If this is to be believed then its actions are an extension of its domestic Zionist agenda.  Promoting illegal settlements, restricting access to Al-Aqsa Mosque, declaring Jerusalem as its unequivocal capital, the ongoing Israel-Gaza war and calling Palestinians “animals” are some of the practical manifestations of it.  

Hindutva is the ideology of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and is heavily influenced by Mussolini’s Italy, the rise of Nazism and the third Reich in Germany. The term was first coined by V.D. Savarkar in 1923 and promotes Hindu nationalism and supremacy. Savarkar’s work, ‘The Essentials of Hindutva’, promotes a Hindu majoritarian state, the “Hindu Rashtra” for the protection of its “cultural citizenship”. Unlike Islam and Christianity; Jainism, Buddhism and Sikhism find their origins in India. Premised on this, Savarkar termed these religions as variations of Hinduism while completely rejecting the Abrahamic texts. This has been a decisive factor in today’s ongoing religious tensions in India. 

The amendments to India’s Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) 2019, the abrogation of articles 370 and 35a in the state of Jammu and Kashmir and increased incidents of mob lynching against minorities are some of the practical examples of Hindutva ideology.

Premised on hyper-nationalistic beliefs, both ideologies of Zionism and Hindutva hold astounding similarities. India and Israel are ruled by ethno-racially driven regimes, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the coalition of right-wing Likud party and Religious Zionism respectively. Aiming to keep their lands racially pure, Hindutva propagates the creation of a Hindu Rashtra and Akhand Bharat while Zionists strive to create a Greater Israel.

Both ideologies have a legacy of colonisation and are actively engaged in genocidal practices. Proponents of the two ideologies are engaged in distorting history. The desecration of religious sites in India and Israel has also become a common occurrence. According to a report of the People’s Union for Human Rights, in Gujarat alone, 500 mosques and shrines have been demolished to date.

Historically, India-Israel ties were never strong. After independence, India supported the cause of Palestine. However, in a bid to develop stronger ties with the US, in 1992, India established formal diplomatic relations with Israel. With time, relations have grown stronger and now encompass: economic, political, military, and cultural domains.

In the contemporary geopolitical scenario where India and Israel both act as net security providers for their respective regions, it is convenient for them to also have similar political ideologies. The growing Indo-Israel nexus can also be explained in the larger context of the US-China rivalry where India’s status as the US’ strategic partner has further augmented New Delhi-Tel Aviv relations. The deepening bond can further be explained by India’s ambition to obtain regional dominance for which it is actively pursuing a policy to remain close to countries having advanced military and technological capabilities.

Currently, India is Israel’s largest buyer of military equipment and its second-largest trade partner in Asia. Ties have been further strengthened by cooperation in cybersecurity, the energy sector, air transport agreements, film co-production and investment MoUs.

Amidst the current Israel-Palestine conflict in Gaza, thousands of Indian labourers have migrated to Israel in a bid to replace Palestinians. Israel is also actively assisting the Indian army in Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir through information sharing, providing surveillance softwares and supplying weapons.

As Indo-Israel relation grows, the Hindutva Bhakts continue to hold Zionists in high esteem. This unholy alliance poses a dire threat to the values of multiculturalism and peaceful co-existence. The mastermind of the Norway 2011 attack, Anders Behring Breivik who killed 69 individuals released a manifesto “A European Declaration of Independence” in which he glorified the Hindutva ideology. This is a dangerous precedence and shows that these fascist ideologies are influencing individuals.  

As the sphere of influence of Zionism and Hindutva expands, the world silently watches them carry out gross human rights violations in Gaza and Kashmir, respectively. It has therefore become incumbent upon the international community to hold these fascist governments to account before it gets too late.

To contact the writer Fatima Saleem, Email: fatimasaleemraza@gmail.com

Digital sovereignty for Africa?

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Digital sovereignty for Africa?

By Dr. Jovan Kurbalia 

Africa today is at yet another pivotal moment in its history (in series of many in its pre-modern and modern times). If the continent fails to navigate the AI transition correctly, the technological gap between Africa and the rest of the world may (irreversibly) widen. Therefore, the collaborative Programs like this one (Certified Economic Diplomat, developed by the Ghana’s IEF Institute together with its European think-tank, academic, media and inter-cultural partners) matters so much. Spotifying the challenge is a half way to its solution.   

The current situation is not promising. Africa’s data is stored abroad. For example, the whole continent has fewer data farms than the Netherlands. Knowledge about Africa is also shaped beyond the continent, with, for example, less than 2% of Wikipedia editors coming from the continent. The modern AI system must reflect Africa’s wisdom gathered over centuries. The continent needs urgent action to safeguard and promote its data, knowledge, and wisdom for the AI era as part of the common cultural and knowledge heritage.

Data dilemma

Africa’s data infrastructure needs to be more developed. The entire continent has fewer data farms than the Netherlands, a stark indicator of the digital divide. This lack of infrastructure forces African countries to store their data abroad, traditionally in Europe and North America, and increasingly in China. This practice raises significant security and privacy concerns and limits Africa’s ability to leverage its data for economic growth and innovation.

Data localisation, the practice of managing data on a national level, is gaining traction globally. African countries can use data to foster local innovation and economic growth by investing in local data centres and data localisation policies.

Knowledge gap

The digital knowledge divide is another critical issue. Less than 2% of Wikipedia editors are from Africa, significantly underrepresenting African perspectives and knowledge. This disparity not only skews the global narrative but also deprives future generations of a comprehensive understanding of Africa’s rich history and culture.

African governments and institutions must actively encourage and support local content creation to bridge this knowledge gap. Initiatives like training programs for Wikipedia editors, grants for digital content creators, and partnerships with global tech companies can help amplify African voices in the digital space. Additionally, integrating digital literacy into the education system will empower the next generation to contribute to and shape the global knowledge economy.

Africa’s wisdom

Africa’s wisdom, deeply rooted in oral traditions and cultural practices, is at risk of being overlooked in the AI era. AI systems, predominantly developed in the West, often fail to reflect African cultures and values. This oversight can lead to biased and culturally insensitive AI applications, further marginalizing the African continent.

By incorporating traditional values such as Ubuntu into AI developments, Africa can ensure that AI platforms and systems reflect the continent’s cultural values, including the high relevance of communal values.

Actionable steps for Africa

Invest in data infrastructure: African governments must prioritize the development of local data centres and cloud services. Public-private partnerships can be crucial in mobilizing the necessary resources and expertise.

Enact data localisation policies: Implementing data localisation laws can ensure that sensitive data remains within national borders, enhancing security and fostering local innovation.

Promote local content creation: Governments and institutions should support initiatives encouraging local content creation, such as training programs, grants, and partnerships with global tech companies.

Integrate AI and digital literacy into education: By incorporating digital literacy into the education system, Africa can empower the next generation to contribute to the global knowledge economy.

Incorporate traditional wisdom such as Ubuntu ethics into AI Governance: African nations should actively participate in global AI governance forums and advocate for including Ubuntu ethics in AI development.

Future developments

Africa stands at a crossroads in the digital age. The continent’s young population and significant potential for digital and societal development hold a promising digital future. Africa can secure its digital interests and preserve its rich cultural heritage for future generations by taking proactive steps to safeguard its data, knowledge, and wisdom.

The time to act is now. Africa must invest in data infrastructure, promote local content creation, and incorporate its unique cultural values into AI governance. Only then can it truly harness the power of the digital revolution and shape its own digital destiny.

About author

Jovan Kurbalija is the Founding Director of the DiploFoundation and Head of the Geneva Internet Platform. He previously served as Executive Director of the UN High-Level Panel on Digital Cooperation (2018-2019). Kurbalija has been lecturing at many universities worldwide, including the College of Europe, where he is a visiting professor.

Kurbalija has been a leading expert on the impact of AI and digitalisation on diplomacy and modern society. His book ‘Introduction to Internet Governance’, translated into 11 languages, is a textbook at many universities worldwide.

Kurbalija has led digital capacity development for Africa over the last 3 decades involving thousands of tech experts, diplomats, and business people. In 2022, he co-authored the landmark study on Africa’s digital diplomacy: ‘Stronger digital voices from Africa: Building African digital foreign policy and diplomacy’.

Leonardo’s Faces – Rachel Jones

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Leonardo’s Faces – Rachel Jones

The Leonardo Royal Hotel Den Haag Promenade is represented by both new and more experienced employees working together with passion as one team, to deliver great service and to depict the hotel’s values. In these monthly written pieces, there is a focus on their values and their approach to our international clients. This year’s focus is on the new events concept ‘Now We’re Talking’. It revolves around creating on-going conversations and a spark amongst attendees. It offers endless possibilities to get inspired and connected, with instant personal communication before, during and after your event. Therefore, we would also like to share some background information about the employees with you. Allow us to introduce you to Rachel Jones

  • Nationality: Dutch
  • Function: Guest Experience Agent
  • Department: Front Office

Introduction

When did you start working at the Promenade Hotel?

I began as a General Manager Trainee in February 2023, and I was fortunate to receive a wonderful opportunity to transition into a new role as a Guest Experience Agent.

What was your first impression of the Promenade Hotel?

I was immediately impressed. The interior design is chic and sophisticated creating a welcoming and luxurious atmosphere. Additionally, everyone I encountered upon entering the hotel was friendly and kind, making me feel right at home from the very start.

What makes the Promenade Hotel suitable for welcoming people from all around the world?

The Promenade Hotel is highly suitable for welcoming people from all around the world due to its incredible diversity and inclusive environment. With over 19 nationalities represented among our staff, we offer a rich and welcoming atmosphere that resonates with international guests. Our location is near many embassies, which frequently host events at our hotel. This further enhances our global appeal.

Additionally, our LEO’s International Flavors restaurant showcases a variety of international flavors, offering diverse dishes to cater to the guests from all over the world. A unique concept of our restaurant is that our chef, Sido de Brabander, encourages his team to create dishes from their home countries. This approach not only enriches our menu but also ensures we bring international and authentic flavours to the table, reinforcing our commitment to diversity and inclusion.

Overall, our hotel its diverse staff, strategic location, and international culinary offerings make it an ideal destination for guests from every corner of the globe.

Which diplomatic event has been most memorable for you, so far, at the Promenade Hotel?

My favourite event was the Food Festival by Bosnia. I particularly enjoyed it because I was actively involved, assisting the Food & Beverage team that night. I had the opportunity to taste a variety of delicious dishes that I had never tried before, which was a highlight for me. The atmosphere was lovely, enhanced by live violin and piano performances, making the experience even more special. The preparation for the event was seamless, and every department in our hotel played a role, whether big or small. That night, we hosted over 90 guests, and it was a complete success.

What international aspects do you see reflected along your daily duties and the work environment?

As a front office Guest Experience Agent, I frequently interact with guests from all over the world. This interaction provides a unique opportunity to understand and cater to diverse cultural preferences and expectations.

For instance, we celebrate and incorporate special international occasions, such as Italian Pasta Day, where our Italian colleague cooks pasta for our staff meal, or us at the Front Office serve Glühwein during the Christmas season for our guests. This attention to cultural details ensures that both our colleagues and guests feel welcomed and appreciated.

By embracing these international aspects, we create a rich and inclusive atmosphere that enhances the overall guest experience and fosters a sense of community among our staff.

NOW WE’RE TALKING!

The core values of the new concept are fun, surprising, genuine and connect.

Using your own words, how would you describe the new events concept?

I like the “Now We Are Talking” event concept. It allows us and the guests who have their events at our hotel to interact more with one another. This approach not only improves the guest experience, but it also promotes a feeling of community and engagement, making each event genuine memorable.

What do you find the most exciting or fun part of your current role within the Promenade hotel?

What I find most exciting and fun about my current role at the Promenade Hotel is the opportunity to genuinely connect with our guests. While making guests happy is a common goal in hospitality, for me, it is more than just a job—it is a passion. I have been doing this since I was 17 years old.

When I am surrounded by guests, engaging with them, offering tips for local restaurants, providing directions, or assisting them in any way, I feel truly fulfilled. I live and breathe hospitality, and there is nothing I enjoy more than ensuring our guests have a memorable experience. Forming personal bonds with them is incredibly rewarding; I strive to make sure they remember me, just as I remember them.

I also love when I hear an accent and can immediately identify that they speak Spanish or Papiamento. Switching to their language and having a fun, engaging conversation adds a personal touch to their stay. This ability to connect with guests on a deeper level through language makes my role even more enjoyable and fulfilling.

When was the last time someone surprised you or when you surprised someone?

The last time I surprised someone was for Father’s Day. My dad and brother live on the island of Aruba, and I arranged a spa treatment and a catamaran boat ride for him and my brother. I was so jealous when they sent me the pictures! Can you imagine being on a big catamaran, having cocktails, and just enjoying life? I am confident they had a fantastic time that day.

What is something about which you can always be genuinely passionate or enthusiastic?

My first job at the age of 17 was as a hotel guest concierge in five-star hotels at the Hyatt Regency, Marriot’s, and Hilton. One of my responsibilities was recommending restaurants to guests, and as a result, restaurants often invited my team and me to dine complimentary. This experience fuelled my passion for restaurants and food, making me a true foodie!

I can truly appreciate high quality service, and I love trying new dishes as well as reviewing them. I am definitely the type who will leave a detailed review for a restaurant with pictures on Google. In fact, I think I have visited over 150 restaurants in my life!

Connect with us! What is a piece of advice you would like to share with us?

My advice is simple: no matter your age, it is never too late to start something new. Whether it is a new life, a new job, a new environment, or even moving to a new country, just go for it! Embrace the change and seize the opportunities.

In Athens, Mike Pompeo invited to the 4th International Conference of the Lords of the Ecumenical Patriarchate

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In Athens, Mike Pompeo invited to the 4th International Conference of the Lords of the Ecumenical Patriarchate

For the first time in history, the Lords of the Ecumenical Patriarchate traveled to Athens to participate in the 4th International Conference of Lords for Religious Freedom. The conference, held from May 26-28, 2024, focused on human rights, democracy, and religious freedom.

The keynote speaker on the second day was the 70th U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who emphasized the strong relationship he and his family have with the Orthodox community in the United States. He highlighted the personality of Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, whom he visited in Istanbul despite the “mild reactions of Turkey, to put it diplomatically.”

Referring to the Russian Orthodox Church, he stated, “This war is not holy, it is not religious. It is a war of conquest. We must speak the language of truth, as the Ecumenical Patriarch did in 2019 when he granted the Tome of Autocephaly to the Ukrainians.”

Pompeo also recounted an incident when there was disagreement within the U.S. Department of State about issuing a statement on the matter. He shared, “Mike, it’s none of our business; it’s an internal ecclesiastical matter between Russia and Ukraine. But no. America had an obligation to do so. The U.S. continues to support Ukraine. And it is the government in Moscow, not Kyiv, that is using the Church to justify the war. Citizens deserve better than this.”

Mike Pompeo with Lords of the Ecumenical Patriarchate Συνεχιζεται σημερα για 2η μερα το συνεδριο των Αρχοντων του Οικουμενικου Πατριαρχειου στο Ζαππειο Μεγαρο–

Regarding the conversion of the Chora Monastery into a mosque in Constantinople, he emphasized that it is a holy place, a historical site, and a unique UNESCO monument. “There is no reason to do this,” he stated, adding that this move is a challenge, and President Erdogan himself is a challenge: “This action reduces the freedom of Turkish citizens.” He also mentioned that the Trump administration had made it clear to Turkey that such a move is unacceptable, as it opposes the basic principles of the European Union, which Ankara wants to join, as well as the idea of its participation in NATO.

Meeting with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis

The former U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, met with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Athens, according to diplomatic sources. It is worth noting that on September 29, 2020, Mr. Mitsotakis and his wife, Mareva, hosted the then-Secretary of State and his wife, Susan Pompeo, at their home in Chania. The two men discussed various topics, particularly developments in the U.S. and globally, and agreed to stay in touch.

15th Meeting of The Hague Roundtable on Climate & Security

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15th Meeting of The Hague Roundtable on Climate & Security

Sustainable development and cooperation for disaster resilience – inclusive pathways with civil society, governments and more: focus on Latin America and the Caribbean

By Beatrice Levorato Barsotti

On the 12th of June 2024, 15 embassies, representatives of international organizations, among which the IOM and Save the Children, numerous NGOs [BL1] , gathered for the 15th meeting of The Hague Roundtable on Climate and Security, held at the International Institute of Social Studies (ISS), in The Hague.  The Roundtable, focused on Latin America and the Caribbean, was organized in collaboration with, ISS Humanitarian Studies Centre (HSC) and The Hague Humanity Hub.

The meeting was characterized by an action-based dialogue, and a free flow of opinions, in which international representatives had the opportunity to exchange views and information with experts on the field.

The session was opened by the organizer and founder of The Hague Roundtable, Matt Luna, and the co-moderator, Dr. Thea Hilhorst, Professor of Humanitarian Studies at the ISS. Following the warm introduction from the Rector of the Institute – Prof. Dr. Ruard Ganzevoort, the panel discussions were opened by Ronald Jackson, Head of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery for Building Resilience department at the UNDP in Geneva.

Mr. Jackson, formerly the Head of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), had already participated in a 2019 Roundtable via online while on a hurricane recovery mission in the Caribbean.  This year, the Head of the UNDP DRR Department delivered a presentation titled “Bridging the Silos,” discussing the role of multilateralism in resilience building and how risk informs future developments. Mr. Jackson emphasized that multilateralism is the fundamental cornerstone for addressing global challenges, particularly in risk reduction management. He shared an enlightening reflection on our perception of resilience, questioning whether we aim to make the climate resilient or ourselves resilient to the climate.  

After evaluating current scenarios and challenges in DRR, and linking them to the significance of multilateralism, Mr. Jackson outlined several challenges to the multilateral system, including the perceived inability to mobilize global opinion, develop shared political will, and provide timely responses to complex issues. Other challenges he noted were multiple and siloed global development frameworks, nation-first policies, funding architectures, systemic risks, and the competition for resources, which contributes to a lack of coherence in international institutions.

In this difficult scenario, Mr. Jackson emphasised the positive efforts fostered by the UN, such as the holistic Agenda 2030. He stressed the importance of aligning policies with the SDGs to addressing systemic risks and building resilience through a bottom-up approach. Mr. Jackson underscored the need for innovative cooperation among states, stakeholders, and various actors.

He concluded by emphasizing the importance of strengthening multilateralism, not through radical restructuring, but through collective action towards shared objectives. Creating seamless, objective-driven processes can yield quicker, resilience-focused development. Finally, embracing, encouraging, and strengthening multilateral efforts is paramount to addressing global challenges effectively, fostering sustainable development, and enhancing collective resilience against future risks.

Dr. Murat Arsel, Professor of Political Economy of Sustainable Development at ISS, discussed the intersection of sustainability, development, and political ecology, with a particular focus on his work in Latin America and the Amazon region. His presentation began with a striking image of a town in Ecuador, where the majority of workers are employed in the oil sector. This dependency creates a dangerous reliance on the industry and poses a significant challenge for the green transition.

Dr. Arsel highlighted the difficulty of creating a form of capitalism that does not depend on fossil fuels, emphasizing that ‘renewable capitalism’ is both possible and already emerging. In the context of a post-climate change world, numerous questions must be analyzed. Firstly, what happens when oil production ceases? How can dwindling revenues be rapidly replaced? For countries like Nigeria and Ecuador, which are highly dependent on oil resources, Dr. Arsel suggested compensation as a potential solution—compensating these countries in exchange for halting extraction. He also addressed the risks of social conflict arising from the transition and the geopolitical challenges posed by China’s significant competition in the sector.

Dr. Farhad Mukhtarov,  Asst. Professor of Public Policy and Governance at ISS, discussed the opportunities and pitfalls of exporting technologies and expertise in water management for climate adaptation, with a focus on COP29. He emphasized the dilemmas and choices faced by practitioners involved in foreign policy related to water, climate, and security. Dr. Mukhtarov advocated for shifting from merely transferring expertise to co-creating change, highlighting the need to transform the Dutch water sector by fostering greater social inclusivity in internationally funded projects (Bliss, 2024).

Dr. Mukhtarov stressed the need for reflexivity and humility, urging practitioners to be conscious of power relationships and dynamics within their teams. He called for a different approach to utilizing and communicating knowledge—one that emphasizes empathy and acknowledges local wisdoms to foster trust.

He argued that these actions require critical listening, mindfulness of one’s responses, and the cultivation of reflexivity and curiosity in working with others. By adopting this approach, transferring expertise becomes translating, positioning both the Netherlands and the recipient countries as co-authors in a true shift from transferring expertise to co-creating change.

Meike van Ginneken, the Netherlands Water Envoy, contributed to The Hague Roundtable on Climate & Security via online video. Van Ginneken underscored the critical role of transboundary water cooperation, highlighting the importance of dialogue, conflict resolution mechanisms, and trust-building during peacetime. She pointed to the profound impact of climate change on water resources and the increasing potential for water-related conflicts, stressing the urgent need to strengthen transboundary water management.

In her presentation, Van Ginneken discussed the Netherlands’ ongoing collaboration with international partners, including the United Nations and the World Bank, to address the complex challenges of transboundary water management and support sustainable development. She emphasized the necessity of collaboration, knowledge sharing, and coalition-building to effectively tackle these global challenges.

Van Ginneken’s contributions reflected the Netherlands’ deep commitment to inclusive and sustainable climate action.

Following the panel discussion, H.E. Mr. Rahman Mustafayev, the Ambassador of Azerbaijan to the Netherlands, interveened and talked about the upcoming COP29, that will be hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, this November. The ambassador outlined the dyanmics and work behind the preparation for the COP29.

As the host country, Azerbaijan has taken significant steps in preparation for the conference. Initially, before June, the focus was on learning and studying, involving extensive meetings with various countries, delegations, private sectors, social societies, and financial institutions. Since June, the second phase has emphasized interaction and finding common ground among the 198 countries and over 20 international organizations and groups involved, despite often facing difficult and contrasting positions.

The ambassador noticed how the urgency of the climate crisis is underscored by May 2024 being the hottest May on record, with unprecedented temperatures over the last 12 months. From a financial perspective, H.E. noted that despite substantial financial commitments, including an initial target of $100 billion by 2020 set in Copenhagen and a current goal of $2 trillion, investments in African countries continue to be perceived as high risk. Azerbaijan is also focusing on collaboration with small islands, addressing their critical survival issues. Beyond fostering dialogue and bridging countries, Azerbaijan aims to lead by example, targeting the achievement of renewable energy goals by 2027. This shift to green energy, currently funded by the EU, involves collaboration with Georgia, Hungary, and other partners.

After the panel discussion, participants were divided into breakout groups to focus on various critical aspects of sustainability and climate resilience. These groups explored 1) climate justice and the role of civil society, 2) feminist foreign policy in diplomacy for resilience development and 3) resilience and diplomacy action across regions and sectors.

The event concluded with a networking reception, reinforcing the collaborative spirit of the day. A key objective of the Roundtable on Climate and Security is to gather the opinions and voices of international communities. Matt Luna, of The Hague Roundtable, actively participates in COP events and will be attending COP29 in Azerbaijan this year. Thus, the Roundtable serves not only as a platform for knowledge exchange and discussion but also as a crucial forum for expressing diverse viewpoints. It is an integral part of the democratic process that characterizes the COPs on climate.

For more information: see the report from the 15th Hague Roundtable and a 2-minute video recap.

Note that the 16th Hague Roundtable on Climate & Security is scheduled for 18 September on “Climate Chaos and Law Enforcement” at The Hague University of Applied Sciences. Expression of interest in attending can be sent through the Roundtable contact page.

For More Information / Sources

Bliss, ISS Blog. “From Transferring Expertise to Co-Creating Change – the Dutch Water Sector Needs a Transformation.” Bliss, May 13, 2024. https://issblog.nl/2024/05/13/from-transferring-expertise-to-co-creating-change-the-dutch-water-sector-needs-a-transformation/.

 [BL1]Presence: Embassy of Colombia, Municiaplity of The Hague, Embassy of Costa Rica, Embassy of Chile, Humanitarian Studies Centre, Guatemala, Panama, Embassy of Canada, Swedish Embassy, Turkish Embassy, Italian Embassy,  The Hague Univeristy of Applied Scieces, Government of Netherlands,  Climate Security Program for The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, IOM,  Embassy of Tanzania, Embassy of Spain, Institute of Landscape Studies from Zurich, Save the Children International, (ISS representatives…), The Hague Humanitarian Centre, Ambassador of Azerbaijan

There is a solution to everything!

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There is a solution to everything!

By Alexandra Paucescu

The first impression you get when you meet her is that of a jovial, friendly and optimistic woman who is always on the move. That’s how I met her many years ago, when we were both living in Berlin.

Our initial conversation, I remember well, was about Bucharest, my hometown. It was the first thing we had in common, the memories of a city that we both had lived in before. But later we discovered that there were many other things that connected us.

She is Petia Heinze, born in Sofia, Bulgaria, who travelled the world for the last 34 years, together with her German diplomat husband. Bonn, Brussels, Bucharest, New York, Zagreb, Berlin, London, were cities she called in turn ‘HOME’.

‘I was alongside my husband everywhere, except for Moscow, because of the brutal war that Russia waged against Ukraine. I could neither rationally nor morally come to terms with this situation and live a quiet diplomatic life there’, she confesses. But then she adds: ‘of all my posts so far, I have been happiest in Brussels‘.

Brussels, the city I call ‘home’ these days, another thing we have in common… She tells me she completed her PhD, worked for the EU Commission, and also had her first child in the Belgian capital.

She adds with an unmistakable mixture of fine humor and intelligence, which I noticed in her from the very beginning: ‘when people ask me about my background, I always tell them that I am one of those political scientists who graduated during Perestroika in a socialist country, observed and participated in the difficult and dramatic change of an unfortunate system. What better political training than to see an ideology collapse and its political-economic system implode? I worked during those extremely challenging times as a PR in the election campaign for the Grand National Assembly, then as a marketing and advertising specialist in a new democratic newspaper, later as a correspondent for a national radio, an advisor/expert on EU Phare programs, but most of all as a manager of the Heinze family.‘

Last part sounds familiar? Aren’t we all first and foremost successful managers of the most complex corporation: our own family?

‘The hardest time for me in my diplomatic life was when the children came along, with all the challenges that popped up, especially with the frequent changes of  culture, language and environment, education system or healthcare. They became my top priority. The rapid building of new infrastructures in different countries was my main focus, to ensure their positive educational development and especially the psychological support they needed.   Оften enough, this ‘job’ requires extraordinary efforts, strong nerves and infinite patience from us, the family managers.‘

‘However, very often in the whirlpool of all these changes and challenges of life, we forget ourselves; we forget that if the engine breaks down, the car stops. And basically we are that engine in our families. When we are healthy physically and mentally, our family is healthy. Remember it and seek help if you need it! We have been fortunate though, that supporting the families of German diplomats is a top priority for our German Foreign Ministry and we have always received strong support when needed.‘

She recently added another city to her diplomatic life map: Ashgabat, the capital and largest city of Turkmenistan. To her, it is a new opportunity to discover and learn about people and new places.

‘In addition to the love for my husband, which made me follow him during his diplomatic work and give up a professional career of my own, the opportunity to personally experience and immerse myself in other cultures and worlds, to meet new people and make new friends was another reason to live this kind of life. To this I must add that diplomatic life is associated with both pleasant and unpleasant challenges, which require a certain mental preparation, ability to adapt to new conditions, readiness to acquire new knowledge, but also a lot of humor. To young spouses of diplomats out there, my only advice is to empty the basket of prejudices and biases, to be open to the world and be patient. There is always a solution to everything!’

I asked her about the proudest moment of her life… and I got another piece of Petia’s humor, combined with her realistic approach: ‘I haven’t thought about what I’m most proud of, no one around me has won a Nobel Peace Prize yet, but I am surely proud to have kept my family together all these years and to have raised my children to be respectful of others, empathetic and helpful, open to new challenges and always eager to learn more.’

This is something more than any Nobel Prize moment for any proud parent, indeed!


About the author:

Alexandra Paucescu

Alexandra Paucescu- Author of “Just a Diplomatic Spouse” Romanian, management graduate with a Master in business, cultural diplomacy and international relations studies.

She speaks Romanian, English, French, German and Italian,  gives lectures on intercultural communication and is an active NGO volunteer.

Ukraine: Will Peace Prevail in the End?   

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Ukraine: Will Peace Prevail in the End?   

By Steven van Hoogstraten     

The terrible war in Ukraine has lasted now for nearly 2 and a half years. Russia invaded Ukraine and wages a modern and murderous war. The West is fully behind Ukraine, does provide loads of weapons and has introduced various sanctions against the aggressor, Russia. It seems that after a difficult period for Ukraine, the chances are now turning with the help of the weaponry provided by the US and European partners. The F -16 aeroplanes are still to enter the frame, so there can be hope of some positive military developments for Ukraine in the near future.

Yet, the defining question at this point in time should not only be a military one, but a diplomatic one as well. When will be the time that both sides in this conflict will decide to call it a day? In other words, the question is whether and when a cease fire can be obtained followed by talks about the terms of a lasting peace agreement.

The western leaders, e.g. NATO members understandably feel it is not their task to impose the right moment on the beleaguered Ukrainians. At the same time and in a covert way they  must be looking at a solution which ends the hostilities and which can be seen as acceptable under the circumstances. Let’s take a look at what could be necessary to get to this point.

First – this war can never stop while the people of  Ukraine are left in an uncertain situation. Some form of a security arrangement for Ukraine will have to be put in place. Best would be an instant membership of EU and in future of NATO for the non-occupied part of Ukraine, but that will only be possible if the war has come to an end.  Clearly, a main point is what kind of response Russia will provide to a NATO membership of Ukraine. However, it is simply not conceivable to end this conflict and just wait for the following one to happen along the same pattern. Therefore, I think that NATO cannot do anything else than make a full promise that Ukraine will be admitted as regular member, as soon as the situation permits and all Allies  agree. “We reaffirm our unwavering solidarity with the people of Ukraine in the heroic defence of their nation, their land and our shared values”, NATO said at the recent Washington Summit of NATO at 75.  It was stated that the path to a future NATO membership is irreversible. This means that Ukraine will be protected by its allies in case of a renewed outside aggression, but this will not be tomorrow.  

Second – Ukraine will have to accept that part of its territory remains occupied by Russia for the time being. Which part that is depends on further Ukrainian military successes. It is certain however that Russia will hang on the gains they have already made in Crimea and the Donbas region, where Russian is the dominant language and affiliation. Diplomats will have to find the right concept and wording for this – admittedly unfortunate – state of affairs, may be including a buffer zone. In my view it is unthinkable that Russia will step back from the surface under its control, at best there could  be an attempt to hold a public poll which way the local population would like to go. In the interest of peace, Ukraine will have to consider making concessions in some form to the central concept of territorial integrity .

Third – there has to be an agreement on the rights of the minorities in the contested regions, and notably the protection of spoken and written languages and culture. Much along the lines of the Minsk agreements. An often heard pretext of the Russian invasion originated inter alia in the non-fulfilment of the terms of Minsk. The promised constitutional reform of Ukraine was not followed up. The obligation to use the Ukrainian language in all parts of the country has no doubt added to cultural tensions. 

There is another side to the outcome of the war, certainly seen from the prism of the Hague as the world’s Legal Capital. The International Criminal Court has launched an arrest warrant against the leader of Russia, Vladimir Putin. This arrest warrant has to remain in place, as it is the only visible expression of the indignation of the world at large about the atrocities caused by Russian troops and their leaders, “no impunity” as the central notion.  Remember that Milosevic was accused and prosecuted  by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia ICTY, notwithstanding that as a head of state he had been a negotiating partner for the Dayton peace arrangements in that region. Furthermore, several cases between Ukraine and Russia are still pending before the International Court of Justice, also headquartered in The Hague.

In summary, I am not directly hopeful that this form of thinking will get to the finish line any time soon. But we should not accept that the war in Ukraine drags on and on, without attempts to find a reasonable common ground. Former SG of NATO Jaap de Hoop Scheffer suggested on Dutch TV that an international mediator of grand stature should be asked to unlock the current situation. Someone like the prime minister of India, mr Narendra Modi. And Modi  happens to be heading to Kyiv in August, I just read in the press…..

Steven van Hoogstraten – See also The Art of Making Peace. Lessons Learned from Peace Treaties, co-edited by S. van Hoogstraten, N. Schrijver O. Spijkers and A. de Jong (Leiden: Brill, 2017), 238 p.

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