By Guido Lanfranchi.

A few months after the execution of exercise Trident Juncture, NATO is preparing for the annual exercise Baltic Operations, also known as BALTOPS. For the first time, this exercise will feature the presence of the U.S. 2^nd Fleet, under the command of Vice Admiral Andrew Lewis.

The organization phase of exercise Baltic Operations 2019 is nearing its completion, with the Final Planning Conference scheduled in these days in Vilnius, Lithuania. The execution of BALTOPS is not anything new, as the exercise is coming this year to its 47^th iteration. However, for the first time the 2019 edition of the exercise will feature the presence of the U.S. 2^nd Fleet, under the command of Vice Admiral Andrew Lewis. The 2^nd Fleet has been deployed to Europe since summer 2018 – Admiral Lewis explained – on account of the changing security environment, with a focus on operations in the Atlantic and in the Arctic. 

While the 2^nd Fleet is new in the European theatre, it will operate in coordination with a “practiced team of professionals” – Admiral Lewis noted, praising the cooperation between NATO allies in the organization of BALTOPS 2019. In the occasion of NATO’s 70^th anniversary, remembering the importance of such cooperation is all the more salient – Admiral Lewis reminded, focusing in particular on the Baltic states’ contribution to the strength of the Alliance.

These words of praise were widely echoed by U.K. Rear Admiral Andy Burns, Admiral Lewis’ Deputy for BALTOPS 2019, who warmly welcomed the deployment of the U.S. 2^nd Fleet in Europe. Read Admiral Burns underlined how his role as Deputy is a sign of the tight partnership between the U.K. and the U.S., as well as of the commitment of both nations to the security of the Baltic states.

He also provided a brief description of the BALTOPS exercise, which will include the deployment of air, maritime and ground forces from 18 nations, with the aim of improving flexibility and interoperability among different forces.

In a context of changing security scenarios and emerging threats, NATO remains committed to the security of all allied countries, and the security of the Baltic states remain a priority for the Alliance.

Foreign Ministers gathered in Washington D.C. on Thursday (4 April 2019) to mark 70 years since NATO’s founding, and to continue adapting the Alliance. “Over seven decades, NATO has stepped up time and again to keep our people safe, and we will continue to stand together to prevent conflict and preserve peace,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Addressing security in the Black Sea region, Ministers agreed a new package of measures to enhance NATO’s situational awareness and strengthen support for the Alliance’s partners in the region, Georgia and Ukraine. This support could include training for maritime forces and coast guards, port visits and exercises, and sharing information.

Ministers also discussed Russia’s ongoing violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Allies reiterated their call on Russia to return to full and verifiable compliance with the Treaty, and discussed the way forward should Russia not return to compliance. The Secretary General stressed that any response would be “measured and coordinated,” and NATO has no intention to deploy ground-launched nuclear missiles in Europe, but added that NATO will continue to “maintain credible and effective deterrence and defence.”

Later on Thursday, Ministers addressed NATO’s role in the fight against terrorism, and the efforts of the United States to seek a political settlement in Afghanistan. “We went into Afghanistan together, and we agree that we will take any decisions on our future presence together,” said the Secretary General. Ministers also discussed progress in the fight against ISIS, and how NATO is adapting to new terrorist threats and tactics, such as the use of small drones. The Secretary General stressed that NATO will continue to work with partners in the region, training local forces in the fight against terrorism.

Ministers concluded their meeting with a discussion on fairer burden-sharing in the Alliance. The Secretary General welcomed Allied progress, including four consecutive years of rising investment in defence. “Since 2016, European Allies and Canada have added $41 billion dollars to their defence spending; by the end of next year, this will rise to $100 billion,” he said. Mr. Stoltenberg noted that Allies are not only spending more, but also investing in new capabilities and deploying more forces for NATO. 

The NATO Secretary General is wrapping up a three-day visit to the United States, where he also addressed a joint meeting of the United States Congress, met with President Trump, took part in a “NATO Engages” conference, and participated in a ceremony to mark 70 years since the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Statement on the occasion of NATO’s 70^th anniversary (issued by the NATO Foreign Ministers, Washington D.C., 3^rd-4^th April 2019): https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_165243.htm

The security challenges of Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development

By Professor Gilles-Emmanuel Jacquet.

The current talks between the representatives of the Taliban and the US Government in Qatar are an important step but peace and stability are still beyond reach. Afghanistan’s reconstruction and durable development requires a satisfactory level of security and tackling issues such as unemployment, corruption, and armed violence.

Since 2001 many reconstruction and assistance efforts have been conducted in Afghanistan but their real impact is limited by the security context and corruption. Foreign material and financial assistance was affected by embezzlement and misappropriation. Many examples can be easily found in Kabul or all over the country. In Kabul’s Parwan-e-seh district, the main road was in a bad shape and looked as if it had been built during the 1970s or the 1980s.

According to some local residents, the road had been built during the 2000s and the main cause of its deplorable condition was corruption : the road was 9 cm-thick, while it was supposed to be 18 cm-thick and its maintenance was almost nonexistent. In many rural areas schools were built with the financial support of foreign countries, NGOs or organizations but an important part of these funds have disappeared. As a result, these schools are often unfinished or badly constructed buildings where the furnitures, windows, heating system, decent toilets or electricity are missing.

Since 2001 ISAF Provincial Reconstruction Teams did a great work but it ended with the withdrawal of ISAF troops. The action of the PRTs also sparked debates and was criticised by some non-governmental organizations as it could create confusion in the minds of local populations about the nature of humanitarian assistance, as well as the role of foreign armed forces and foreign NGOs. Many foreign or local NGOs operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan have reported that after the elimination of Osama bin Laden by a team of US Navy SEALs in Abbottabad in May 2011, they were facing more difficulties in carrying out their operations. It can be explained by the fact that one of the methods used by the CIA to identify Osama bin Laden took the form of a fake vaccination programme conducted in Abbottabad and seriously undermined the trust of local populations towards NGOs, and especially foreign aid workers.

The current security context is critical, the Taliban controls from 44% to 61% of Afghan districts [1] and the Islamic State is conducting terrorist attacks in the country. The current negotiations are an important step but their outcome will not bring a stable and immediate peace. Only a fraction of the Taliban has endorsed this process and agrees to participate to it as the whole Taliban movement remains divided. Some Taliban factions wants a full withdrawal of foreign troops and of all foreign presence, as well as the resignation of the current Afghan government. This precondition can’t be satisfied as it would put the current Afghan government at risk and trigger a new phase of conflict. Such possibility would not create a proper context for reconstruction. Moreover, since the fall of its Syrian and Iraqi Caliphate, the Islamic State has found a new momentum in Afghanistan and some Taliban factions have pledged allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, while others refuse to do so and are engaged in a fierce competition with ISIS.

In this regard, reconstruction and development will depend on the context created by the peace deal and a satisfactory agreement for all parties, which is far from being easy. All parties have ties to foreign and neighbouring countries. It means that foreign powers and neighbouring countries should reassess their agendas and interests in Afghanistan. They should also find common interests and a joint approach, at least with regard to the reconstruction of the country. It’s the only way to ensure a sound reconstruction process and especially the access to rural areas where most of the work should be conducted.

Security conditions and corruption are also closely tied to the social and economical problems affecting Afghanistan’s rural areas. Agriculture is the largest sector and the basis of Afghanistan’s economy. Agriculture should be strongly supported, especially when it comes to the eradication of opium poppy cultivation. The opiate economy accounts for 20% to 32% of the country’s GDP (US$ 4.1-6.6 billion) [2] and 24 provinces out of 34 grow opium poppy but 69% of cultivation is carried out in Southern Afghanistan. [3] Taliban groups control these areas and earn c. US$ 200 million per year from the opiate economy. Eradication efforts have led to a decline of opium production  from 9000 tons in 2017 to 6400 tons in 2018 and the price of dry opium fell to its lowest level since 2004 (US$ 94 per kg). [4] Foreign support is crucial but the United States of America have decided in February 2019 to end Operation Iron Tempest, an airstrike campaign launched in 2017 against Afghan drug labs.

Providing jobs and decent revenues to rural populations play a role in decreasing the activities of insurgent groups in rural areas. This key issue was well understood by the French troops in charge of civil-military operations in the province of Kapisa and the district of Surobi. French scholar Bernard Dupaigne explained that during the First Indochina War (1946-1954) « the map of quiet areas coincided exactly with the map of regions where hydraulic works improving agricultural yields had been carried out by French engineers. The areas controlled by the insurgency corresponded to poor regions from an agricultural point of view ». [5] The French troops conducting civil-military operations in Kapisa and Surobi wished to play a role in the long-term development of these areas but their mission was ended in 2012.

Eradicating the cultivation of opium poppy and supporting farmers in their transition towards the cultivation of legal crops is expensive. Many efforts have been done and opium production has decreased but the results are limited by corruption, widespread poverty, the threats made by criminal gangs, corrupt officials or Taliban commanders against farmers. Taking into account such difficulties, some experts argue that opium poppy cultivation and opium production should be allowed and that farmers could legally sell their production to the pharmaceutical industry. Such alternative could provide stable revenues to a part of Afghan rural populations. [6]

Education plays an important role in the development of Afghanistan, especially vocational education and professional training. As one of the most infuential thinkers and leading practitioners in the field, Dr. Djawed Sangdel have repeatedly stressed: « Afghanistan may need businessmen and managers but it needs even more technicians, agronomists and engineers. »

The reconstruction and development of Afghanistan will also benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s new Silk Road, but it requires as well serious security improvements and a coherent regional approach from foreign and international powers. The new Great Game in Central Asia opposing the USA to Russia and China could, in this perspective, could prevent Afghanistan from reaping the benefits of trade with China and hinder its development. Competition between international or regional powers can take a violent form, especially when it will come to the control and the exploitation of strategical mineral resources and rare-earth elements whose value could reach $3 trillion. Mineral resources are an important asset for the country and its development but the local mining industry is opaque and Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum is affected by corruption. [7] Moreover, illegal mining benefits to various criminal gangs and the Taliban.

State control upon this sector should be increased, sound legal standards should be enforced, corruption should be punished and transparence should be supported. Moreover, there should be a comprehensive and coherent strategy ensuring that Afghanistan will not just own its resources but it will also use the revenues generated by minerals or oil for its development and reconstruction. The current trends on international markets and the increasing scarcity of some mineral or energy resources have also led to a crucial issue for Afghanistan. Competition among foreign powers over the access to rare and strategic minerals will also have a negative impact upon the country : it could increase corruption, weak governance, and aggravate the « resource curse ».

There should be a multidimensional strategy taking into account these issues and supported by the United Nations, foreign powers involved in Afghanistan and regional powers or neighbours. In order to succeed there should be a common and radically new approach whereby foreign powers and regional powers should find a common ground and common goals or at least, interests.

Afghanistan is affected by the geopolitical competition opposing the USA to Russia and China but also by the US-Iranian crisis, as well as the Indo-Pakistani rivalry. Iran and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) should be included in this joint approach. Saudi Arabia and Qatar should not be left aside but the effects of their past influence and their future role should be questioned. This approach is obviously too optimistic but the long-term development and stability of Afghanistan can be only ensured by a genuine commitment of all parties.

About the author:

Gilles-Emmanuel Jacquet. Assistant Professor of the World History at the Geneva School of Diplomacy and International Relations. He is also senior anlaysit at the Geneva International Peace Research Institute (GIPRI)

[1] Bill Roggio and Alexandra Gutowski, « Mapping Taliban controlled and contested districts in Afghanistan: LWJ vs US military assessments », Threat Matrix / The Long War Journal, 08/09/2018 : https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/09/mapping-taliban-controlled-and-contested-districts-in-afghanistan-lwj-vs-us-military-assessments.php

[2] « Afghanistan Opium Survey 2017, Challenges to sustainable development, peace and security », United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and Narcotics Survey Directorate of the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, May 2018, p.5

[3] « Afghanistan Opium Survey 2018, Cultivation and Production », United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and Crime and Narcotics Survey Directorate of the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, November 2018, p.14

[4] « Sharp drops in opium poppy cultivation, price of dry opium in Afghanistan, latest UNODC survey reveals »,  United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 19/11/2018 : https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/frontpage/2018/November/sharp-drops-in-opium-poppy-cultivation–price-of-dry-opium-in-afghanistan–latest-unodc-survey-reveals.html?ref=fs1

[5] Bernard Dupaigne, Désastres afghans, Carnets de route, 1963-2014, Gallimard, 2015, pp.222-223

[6] Olivier Maguet, « La production de drogue : un enjeu qui dépasse largement les frontières », pp.83-100, in Pierre Micheletti, Afghanistan, Gagner les cœurs et les esprits, Presses Universitaires de Grenoble / RFI, 2011

[7] Zabihullah Jahanmal, « Report: Corruption Increases In Mines Ministry Contracts », Tolo News, 12/03/2017: https://www.tolonews.com/business/report-corruption-increases-mines-ministry-contracts ; « Afghanistan’s new mining law risks falling short in the fight against corruption », Global Witness, 05/09/2018 : https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/afghanistans-new-mining-law-risks-falling-short-fight-against-corruption/ and Zaghona Salehi, MEC report lists reasons behind corruption in MoMP, Pajhwok Afghan News, 10/12/2018 : https://www.pajhwok.com/en/2018/12/10/mec-report-lists-reasons-behind-corruption-momp

By Bilal Hussain.

Notwithstanding the economic priorities, the two major nuclear powers in South Asia: India and Pakistan are engaged in an almost war-like situation. The state of affairs has taken a heavy toll on these nation’s financial markets, currencies, soured business sentiments and potentially could hurt foreign investment.

It was Kashmiri youth who in a suicide attack killed at least 40 Indian forces in Kashmir and is considered as the worst attack in 30 years, who is responsible and brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war. Following the Indian Air Force (IAF) fighter aircraft crossed the Line of Control on 26^th of February, 2019 and carried out attack on a ‘terrorist camp’. This is the first time since 1971 that the Indian Air Force breached the Line of Control and entered into Pakistani territory.

Diplomacy takes a dig

Justifying the act, the Foreign Secretary of India, taking a first dig to the diplomatic relations between the two nuclear states in a media report says, “this strike absolutely necessary. It was a non-military, pre-emptive strike.” According to the ministry of external affairs (MEA), government of India in a statement by Foreign Secretary mentions, “India struck the biggest training camp of JeM (Jaish-e-Mohammad) in Balakot. In this operation, a very large number of JeM terrorists, trainers, senior commanders and groups of jihadis who were being trained for fidayeen action were eliminated.”

However, countering the Indian claims, the Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, busted the claims of having targeted a terrorist camp and resulting in causalities. Ministry of foreign affairs (MoFA) in its statement rebutted, “completely absurd and is based on a false narrative designed to placate domestic audience.” Yet, other independent reports suggest that Indian bombing inside Pakistani territory appears to have struck a mostly uninhabited forest and a farmer’s wheat field.

Reacting to the IAF attack, Pakistan Air Force strikes back and according to the MoFA-Pakistan, “This was not a retaliation to continued Indian belligerence. We have no intention of escalation, but are fully prepared to do so if forced into that paradigm. That is why we undertook the action with clear warning and in broad daylight.” Nonetheless, MEA-India claimed that Pakistan de-marched on the act of aggression against India.

While, the Indian media reported that at least 325 terrorists and 25 to 27 trainers were eliminated at the camp when the IAF strike took place. Twelve Mirage-2000 jets took part in the operation and dropped 1,000-kg laser-guided bombs to destroy at least six-terrorist camps.  Also, India launched a renewed diplomatic aggression by briefing diplomats from foreign missions including China and the UK.

The military action took toll on religion sentiments as well. In a recent move by Pakistani devotees are denied visa. The devotees would miss Ajmer-Urs— an annual religious ceremony at Dargah Ajmer Sharif.

Cost of military action

This military action and the reaction by the two countries has resulted in any gain on either sides. According to a report, 3 Indian aircraft (two MIG 21 planes and a Mi-17-V5 chopper) were brought down, resulting in seven casualties (six airmen, one civilian), as opposed to one Pakistani F-16 down (as claimed by Indian sources). The cost of two MIG-21 is 6.53 billion Indian Rupees. The cost of one Mi-17-V5 helicopter is 1.45 billion Indian Rupees. That is a net hole of 7.98 billion Indian Rupees in the Indian exchequer. Also, one of the India’s pilot, Abhinandan Varthaman, was captured.

The Sensex, India’s stock market index, lost as much as 600 points as Indo-Pak tensions escalated. And the Indian rupee also fell by ₹0.41 against the dollar. While, the Karachi Stock Exchange, fell by 4%.

While, on Pakistan’s side their climate change minister, Malik Amin Aslam in a news report has said that Indian MIG-21 has bombed their forest reserves and the government of Pakistan is undertaking an environmental impact assessment, and contemplating to file a complaint at the United Nations and other forums against India on ‘eco-terrorism’.

War of word

The war was going on the media channels as they turned the studios into battle grounds. A war of word, conflicting media narratives not only confused the international community, however, those on the ground too had no idea of what is going on. While a report in Foreign Policy mention how India’s media is war-crazy and journalism has taken a back seat to jingoism.

Besides, the International media be it Al Jazeera English, Washington Post, New York Times, The Guardian, Gulf News, Daily Telegraph, or Jane’s Information Group, each one of these publications have questioned the Indian claims of ‘killing 300 militants inside Pakistan’.

Concerned over the credibility of media, former Vice President of India, Hamid Ansari, says that “for the media to play its designated role, it must be impartial and unprejudiced in coverage of news and views connected with all segments of society.”

Kashmir, a nuclear flash point

The Kashmir is the nuclear flash point that can explode anytime and is the real theatre of unspeakable violence and moral corrosion that can spin us into violence and nuclear war at any moment. The author, The God of Small Things, and The Ministry of Utmost Happiness, Arundhati Roy, in a write-up wrote that to prevent that from happening, the conflict in Kashmir has to be addressed and resolved.

Besides, one of the founding member of the Defense Planning Staff, India, Gen Ashok K. Mehta mentions in an article, “Pakistan’s reaction was swift, signaling: ‘you can do it, we can hit you back’. The big strategic take-away is that while India may have breached a 50-year old red line, it cannot claim air raids as the new normal or a game-changer. So another mass-casualty terrorist attack in India/J&K will present a decision-making dilemma for the government.”

Moreover, former India’s high commissioner to Pakistan, Sharat Sabharwal, in one of his write-ups says, “Pakistan fishes in the troubled waters of our own making in Kashmir. Force alone cannot build durable peace there.”

Peace prevailed

The prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, stood up and announced the release and return of India’s captured pilot. Khan also offered peace talk to India. However, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi refused to accept peace talks. Refusing to give peace a chance, in a media report Modi said, “Just now one pilot project has been completed. Now we have to make it real, earlier it was just practice.”

Also, there is a visible de-escalation move from Pakistani foreign ministry’s director general South Asia and SAARC, Dr. Mohammed Faisal in his tweet mentions that their high commissioner would be returning to Delhi.

Besides, India’s foreign secretary, Vijay Gokhale is on US visit where he is expected to meet senior officials of the US administration and exchange views on major foreign policy and security-related developments, officials said. The visit to the US comes in the backdrop of growing tension between India and Pakistan.

Final word

The irony is that still 30% of Pakistanis and about a sixth of India’s 1.3 billion live under poverty, as per the World Bank, which defines poor as those living on less than $1.9 per day. For the greater good of both the countries, they should focus on their economic wellbeing and provide a good governance to their population. While, reviving all the diplomatic channels between the two nations, it is high time to address the core issue of Kashmir which could prove a nuclear flash point anytime.

About the author: Bilal Hussain is a freelancer and writer. He was previously the sub-editor of the business section for Greater Kashmir and Kashmir Times. His principal interests are: conflict economy, capital markets, the developmental sector, and ecological economics.