By Corneliu Pivariu. That question comes again and again for those interested in the developments of the Middle East and more often when the situation is complicated and, really, when was the situation simple in this area? There is one single constant since more than half a century in the complex equation with many unknowns of the Middle East: the yet unsolved Palestinian issue. A constant that will further persist. Given that so far we know something for sure about the Middle East, let us see what are some of the main developments in the region and their possible evolutions: Daesh – is constantly losing territories after Mosul passed entirely, on 7th of July, under the Iraqi government forces control, the old city included, with its Grand Mosque of al-Nouri (where Al-Baghdadi proclaimed the caliphate in 2014) and which leaning minaret was destroyed by Daesh shortly before the city was liberated. Although mention was made of Daesh’s losing 30,000 fighters in Mosul, the figure seems exaggerated to us and most probably the truth is somewhere around its half having in mind the organization’s total military forces and the areas it still controls. Daesh still holds Kirkuk and Nineveh towns and Anbar province in Iraq. In Syria, the offensive for liberating Raqqa by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), made up mostly of Kurdish fighters and strongly backed by the aviation and other means by the Western coalition entered its final stage after the town was completely surrounded on 30th of June in spite of Daesh’s counterattacks. At the beginning of the last decade of July, Daesh forces lost part of the town, the old city included, yet it still has the capacity of launching counterattacks trying to recover lost positions. According to American estimates, there are some 3,500 foreign fighters in Raqqa plus an unspecified number of other Daesh fighters. Trying to motivate more its fighters, Daesh leadership offered a reward of around 4,000 dollars for any American or SDF military killed. In a press conference in Amman, Jordan, Brett McGurk, the spokesman for the American troops declared: “Our mission is to get sure that … any foreign fighter here (in Raqqa, o.n.), who joined Daesh in Syria coming from a foreign country, will die in Syria”. As a result of strong fighting in Raqqa, before the its complete surrounding, Daesh withdrew from all the localities it controled in Aleppo district. Under the circumstances, the complete liberation of the town is a matter of time, probably within 4-6 weeks, even if some disputes arised among the elements of the forces fighting for liberating the town. We estimate that after it loses Raqqa, Daesh will direct its forces towards other areas it controls in Syria and Iraq and in other states, as well, such as Yemen, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Egypt while terrorist attacks in Europe may multiply in the coming period. Even if the self-titled Caliph – Al Baghdadi will be killed (news concerning his death are not certain), the organization will survive and most likely will seek a closer cooperation with al Qaida. Syria – the situation there is of a maximum complexity and difficult to be synthesized in a few lines. The interests concentrating and confronting there belong both to the states in the area and to the great foreign powers: the USA, Russia, France, Great Britain and others. Iran seeks to preserve its interests and to ensure it will control what King Abdullah of Jordan in an inspired moment in 2004 called the Shiite crescent, a project in which Syria has a prominent place. We notice Israel’s strong artillery responses against mortar fire coming from Syria, on Quneitra area, south of Syria. According to some unofficial Israeli sources, there is a serious discontent in Tel Aviv vis-a-vis Trump-Putin understandings at G20 Summit in Hamburg on Syria, considering that Israel’s security needs were ”completely overlooked” on that occasion. A high Israeli military source, who insisted on anonymity, declared that ”the two sides (the USA and Russia, o.n.) partitioned Syria – the Americans north of Euphrates River, the Russians south of it”. Even if the situation on the ground looks like that, we do not think the USA definitely accepted such a situation. Israel is further concerned about the possibility of Iranian missiles launching bases being built in Syria. The possibility of Hezbollah building, in a unspecified yet area in Lebanon, with Iranian assistance, of a deep underground performing missile manufacturing facility (Iran has experience in this field, see the components of its nuclear programme) is being circulated as well. Russia further acts for securing and possibly expanding its influence gained after its direct military intervention in 2015. The most optimistic forecasts show that a possible solution will emerge in 2018, followed by a transition period of at least two years and then Syria’s reconstruction begins. It is indeed a business only the great ones will get access to. Qatar – the situation remains tense yet and the USA’s intentions of mediating are noticeable, as well as the usual inaction of the Arab League. Turkey insists on observing Qatar’s sovereignity (see the 13-point Saudi demands) and president Erdogan had, on 30th of June, a phone talk with president Donald Trump mainly on this issue. We notice also the Turkish president’s visit to Kuwait on 23rd of July, after his visit and talks on the same day in Riyadh with the Saudi King Salman. The discussions with the Kuwaiti emir Sabah al-Ahmad Al-Sabah lasted more than a hour. Iraq – after Mosul’s liberation is not going yet towards a stable situation. It is for the first time the city is controlled by the Iraqi army (Shia in its majority) and it will still take time untill the situation in this city will come back to reasonable confines. It is likely that a compromise solution will be found with the Sunni opposition coming back to the city. Besides, the 15th of July Baghdad conference of the Sunni leaders proved their divisions and their lack of a coherent action, and that is something quite usual at the level of the entire Sunni community of the Middle East. The referendum for the Kurdish independence, announced for September 25th, 2017, is an attempt of the leadership of the Iraqi Kurdistan – of the president Massoud Barzani, towards creating a Kurdish independent state, a project opposed by Turkey, Iran and the USA as well. As we said some time ago, the time for solving the Kurdish issue has not come yet. The Middle East, a region considered, in a way, stable before 2010, as a result of the balance created by the existence of some authoritarian regimes, is now extremely volatile and presents great risks for the expansion of terrorism. Iran’s and Russia’s intervention in Syria greatly complicated the civil war in this country. Egypt, in its turn, goes over a difficult period economically and the Saudi and other Gulf countries’ assistance is not enough for surpassing it. The Sunni-Shia sectarian divisions, the expansion of the influence of the Iranian revolution, the proliferation of the Islamist Sunni groups and last, but not least, the Arab-Israeli conflict are the biggest challenges of the region on the background of an explosive demographic and social and economic situation. Therefore, Middle East – whereto? A question that will continue to arise. ———- About the author: Corneliu Pivariu, former first deputy for military intelligence (two stars general) in the Romanian MoD, retired 2003. Member of IISS – London, alumni of Harvard – Kennedy School Executive Education and others international organizations. Founder of INGEPO Consulting, and bimonthly Bulletin, Geostrategic Pulse”. Main areas of expertise – geopolitics, intelligence and security.

Manufacturing in the USA. Made In America Week, President Donald Trump welcomed 20 companies that manufacture their products in the United States to join him for a roundtable discussion to highlight the importance of manufacturing products in American factories, with the hands and labor of American workers. “We’re here today to continue our celebration of American manufacturing as part of Made in America Week. The leaders and innovators around this table create the products that fill our homes, defend our nation, and enrich our lives. And each one of these products proudly carries the label, Made in the USA,” said the President. MADE IN AMERICA WEEK President Trump hosted companies from across the country at the White House to showcase products Made in America. In order to celebrate and highlight each state’s effort and commitment to American-made goods, businesses from each of the 50 states displayed products. Leaders from each company showcased their unique businesses on the South Lawn and on the State Floor of the White House. Products ranged from sandwiches, to wool blankets, to firetrucks; each business connected by the common thread of American excellence. Since first running for office, President Trump has urged industry to Buy America, Hire American.  He showcased that commitment again this week from The White House. —— The main picture refers to President Trump and Vice President Pence lunch with service members who served in Afghanistan. The President wanted to sit down and listen to the people on the ground. “We’ve been there for now close to 17 years, and I want to find out why we’ve been there for 17 years,” said President Trump.    

  Speaking points by Michel Barnier at the press conference following the second round of Article 50 negotiations with the United Kingdom The European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, Michel Barnier, said: Our second round, which began on Monday, was about the presentation of our respective positions. Our objective was to start working on substance and also to continue building trust between us. I said last week that I wanted to identify the points where we agree and the points where we disagree. This was possible this week for the issues on which there was a clear British position Sur la substance, c’est d’abord la question des droits des citoyens qui est une priorité partagée par l’Union européenne, les 27 Etats membres, le Parlement européen et le Royaume-Uni. La position britannique détaillée sur ce sujet nous a permis de commencer à identifier des points de convergence et des points de divergence. Nous avançons maintenant dans une direction commune. Mais il reste une divergence fondamentale sur la manière de garantir ces droits, et sur plusieurs autres points, comme les droits des futurs membres de la famille ou l’exportation de certains bénéfices sociaux. Les citoyens doivent pouvoir trouver dans l’accord de retrait lui-même la certitude juridique dont ils ont besoin dans leur vie quotidienne. Franchement, de notre côté, nous ne voyons aucune autre manière pour garantir la pérennité de ces droits européens exercés. Et évidemment, toute référence aux droits européens implique son contrôle par la Cour de justice de l’Union européenne. L’enjeu de la prochaine session de négociation sera donc de clarifier les raisons de ces divergences, en gardant toujours à l’esprit notre objectif commun que les citoyens concernés puissent continuer à vivre comme aujourd’hui. Sur le règlement financier maintenant, le Royaume-Uni avait reconnu la semaine dernière l’existence d’obligations vis-à-vis de l’Union au-delà de la date du retrait et la nécessité de solder ces engagements. Tout comme d’ailleurs, l’Union européenne l’avait déjà reconnu. Evidemment, seule cette reconnaissance permet d’engager le plus vite possible le travail sur l’identification précise des obligations à solder. La position de l’Union européenne, rendue publique le 29 mai, est le résultat d’un passage en revue de tous les engagements qui, de notre point de vue, doivent être couverts par l’accord de retrait. Et cette semaine, nous avons détaillé l’analyse juridique de ces engagements. Comme je l’ai dit très clairement à David, une clarification de la position du Royaume-Uni est indispensable pour négocier et pour aboutir à des “progrès suffisants” sur ce dossier financier, qui est inséparable des autres dossiers du retrait. Nous voulons – et nous y travaillons – une sortie ordonnée du Royaume-Uni, comme il l’a décidé. Et une sortie ordonnée exige de solder les comptes. Nous savons bien que cet accord-là ne se formera pas dans une discussion par petits pas, not through incremental steps Aussitôt que le Royaume-Uni sera prêt à préciser la nature de ses engagements, nous serons prêts à en discuter avec les négociateurs britanniques. On Ireland, we had a first discussion on the impact of Brexit on two key subjects: the Good Friday Agreement and the Common Travel Area. We agree that the important issue of the Good Friday Agreement, in all its dimensions, requires more detailed discussions. In particular, more work needs to be done to protect North-South cooperation between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Today, that cooperation is embedded in the common framework of EU law and EU policies. We need to better understand how the UK intends on ensuring the continuation of this cooperation after Brexit. We also agreed that the UK should clarify in the next session how it intends on maintaining the Common Travel Area after leaving the EU. Enfin, sur les autres sujets de la séparation, nous avons eu un échange de vues sur le champ à couvrir, sur les moyens d’apporter de la clarté juridique là où le Brexit crée des incertitudes, par exemple pour les producteurs, distributeurs, vendeurs de marchandises, mais aussi pour la coopération policière ou pour les citoyens ou entreprises engagés dans des procédures judiciaires qui sont en cours. Et nous, nous avons expliqué nos positions sur la base des sept papiers que nous avons publiés. Nous avons pris note des précisions du Royaume-Uni sur certains sujets, et de son intention de clarifier ses positions lors des prochains rounds de négociation.

• Le premier round était celui de l’organisation.
• Le second round a été celui de la présentation.
• Le troisième round doit être celui de la clarification.

En août, nous aurons besoin declarification :

• sur le règlement financier,
• sur les droits des citoyens,
• sur l’Irlande, notamment le Common Travel Area et le Good Friday Agreement d’abord.
• sur les autres sujets de la séparation, pour lesquels l’expérience de cette semaine prouve que nous progressons mieux lorsque nos positions respectives sont claires.

————— Photo credits: AFP Photo/John Thys

Romania, UK, Belgium and Switzerland – coordinated takedown of a Romanian THB network

On 19 June, Romanian prosecutors from the Directorate for the Investigation of Organised Crime and Terrorism (DIICOT), Piteşti Territorial Service, together with judicial police officers from the organised crime fighting structures within Piteşti, Craiova, Ploiesti, Bucharest, Vâlcea, and Dâmboviţa, carried out 71 house searches in Romania.

In parallel, on the same day, 20 house searches were conducted within the UK, Belgium and Switzerland. As a result of these joint operations, 30 suspects were detained in Romania and three suspects in the UK, and large amounts of currency, jewelry, firearms, drugs and electronic equipment were seized. Forty witnesses have been interrogated in the involved countries. Following an investigation initiated in Romania, on 12 September 2016, the Romanian Desk opened a case at Eurojust and sought the assistance and support of Belgium, the UK, Germany, the Czech Republic and Switzerland. The target of the investigations was an international organized criminal group (OCG) accused of committing trafficking in human beings for sexual exploitation, pimping and money laundering. The investigations revealed that a substantial amount of money was obtained from those criminal activities. The banking transactions managed through the OCG alone total EUR 5 million. Eurojust facilitated cooperation between DIICOT, the Territorial Service of Pitesti and the judicial authorities of the UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Germany and the Czech Republic by organizing two coordination meetings at Eurojust. A joint investigation team (JIT) agreement was signed between Romania, Belgium and the UK. Eurojust provided logistical and financial support to the JIT and its members. In parallel, Eurojust received and facilitated the execution of requests for cooperation submitted within this investigation from countries not a party to the JIT. Europol contributed to the smooth exchange of information among the States concerned, supporting the operation by organizing an operational meeting, providing cross-matches of information and setting up a mobile office in Romania on the action day. At the conclusion of the action day, Ms Daniela Buruiana, National Member for Romania, said: ‘This highly successful joint action could not have taken place without the constructive collaboration of all the parties involved, demonstrating the importance of national police and judicial authorities cooperating fully with each other and with Eurojust to defeat criminals sexually exploiting innocent victims’.