Nuclear what?
Peter Knoope, Director ICCT.
A most eventful meeting took place in The Hague. All of your staff have most likely been extremely busy preparing for the visit of your own dignitaries. Let’s face it is “a hell of a job” to program the visit of a VIP in such a way that it fits with expectations on all sides, and with logistical as well as security requirements at the same time. So the question “was it worth it?” must have sprung to your mind. This questions was also uttered by critical voices in the Dutch press. So let me try and answer that question.
Is it worth the millions of Euros invested, is it worth to take all those measures and prepare not just the city, but almost the whole country for such an event with all the unpleasant side effects like traffic jams and with very visible and sometimes annoying security measures? The answer is without a doubt in the affirmative, but conditional: “It depends”.
What is at stake? According to an inventory that we at ICCT have done, most international terrorism experts reckon that the use of CBNR (Chemical, Biological, Nuclear or Radiological) material for terrorist purposes is potentially a realistic future scenario. However, we do not know what the analytical basis for this fear is. Fact is that international terrorists seek to make themselves heard and do not shy away from tough and rough modi operandi. We know that some of them will do just about anything to get their message across. I can simply remind you, reader, of individuals like Breivik in Norway (2011) or the tragedy at the school in Beslan, North Ossetia (2004) to indicate the willingness of terrorists to harm and dehumanize victims, including children. These examples show that once the frustration level rises above a certain limit and the opponent is sufficiently drained of its human characteristics, angry individuals are capable of just about anything.
Still, the examples also show something else: The Beslan massacre also marked the start of international public outrage over the Chechen rebels. Whereas some level of sympathy may have existed internationally for their cause prior to the attack, these sentiments disappeared fully after the incredible atrocities that were committed by the members of the rebel group within the walls of that school. The same is true for Breivik.[1] His concerns about identity and culture may be shared by others, but his methods were harmful for his cause. Very few people want to be associated with him and his message. Although he tried to regain some of his credibility during the trial, he lost almost all of his potential support base because of the attacks on Utøya.
Increasingly, we see this consideration at play in some of the arenas in which international terrorist groups are active. Winning hearts and minds has become part of the strategic approach of these groups. It happens in Yemen where Al Qaeda in the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP) has been seen active in the area of service and justice delivery systems. It happens in Syria where some of the AQ affiliates are amongst the only ones that effectively give out humanitarian assistance. It was an activity instructed to terrorist organisations active in West Africa from higher command structures, as can be derived from documents captured in Mali.
Public support and a building support base are relevant strategic considerations for terrorist organizations. The use of CBRN material for terrorist purposes is not very helpful in that respect – on the contrary. Very few people will support an organization that uses materials with the widespread impact of an atomic bomb. Nobody sane will be attracted to an organization that deems it necessary to use chemical weapons. Regardless how much a terrorist may want to be heard, he or she will also want to have some level of public support after the attack. And why should a terrorist organization use CBNR material anyway? The handling is risky and complex, the impact is out of control and most importantly, the same impact can be obtained with much less of an effort. The Boston marathon attack and the murder in London of a British soldier are examples of how high the impact can be of relatively small scale terrorist operations. Hence the fact that is claimed by many of my colleagues: CBRN attacks have a “low probability but a high impact”.
We might ask ourselves: then why have the Nuclear Security Summit? Why did you go through all this trouble to organize your incoming visit? There is some underlying logic to this. That is the fact that not all terrorists are rational individuals. Not all terrorists operate from strategically governed groups. We have lately seen an increase in activity of the so-called “lone actors”. Now, again, this concept can be understood in different ways. But one way of understanding it is that a confused individual takes the initiative to make a statement. It has happened and it will happen again. The problem with confused individuals is that they are unpredictable in their behavior. And here, the availability issue becomes seriously relevant. One does not want waste products of nuclear facilities, medical facilities and other dangerous materials readily available to the potential lone actor. Dangerous materials are dangerous; they should be treated that way to prevent any abuse, or the possibility of them falling into the hands of angry or confused minds. This is not because the probability is high, but because the potential impact is high.
We had the summit; the participants reached a common understanding of the required actions. We owe it to ourselves that we treat dangerous substances with care. Technology produces great results, but sometimes also unpleasant products. Nuclear material is one of those by products of technological developments that we could have done without, if you ask me. But it is there. Now it is our leaders’ responsibility to “handle with care”. The fact that they do should be applauded. I would claim I want “more, more, more” specifically in terms of follow-up. Now that we have had the summit, the work starts. If not, the answer to the question “was it worth it”? is still in the negative.
[1] See also on the wider implication of the Breivik trial the ICCT Research Paper The Anders Behring Breivik Trial: Performing Justice, Defending Democracy (August 2013), http://icct.nl/publications/icct-papers/the-anders-behring-breivik-trial-performing-justice-defending-democracy.
Director-General Meets with Prime Minister of Japan
Director-General Ahmet Üzümcü met this morning with the Prime Minister of Japan, Mr Shinzo Abe, who is visiting The Hague to attend the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS).
The Director-General commended Japan for its active role in global disarmament and non-proliferation efforts, and in particular for the steady progress made in destroying chemical weapons abandoned by Japan on Chinese territory. He also expressed appreciation to the Prime Minister for Japan’s generous contribution of €13.25 million to the OPCW’s Syria Trust Fund, which is the largest single financial contribution received thus far.
The Director-General said the confirmed use of chemical weapons in Syria had given new urgency for the remaining six non-States Parties to join the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) without delay. He appealed to Japan to continue raising this issue bilaterally with non-States Parties and expressed appreciation for Japan’s ongoing efforts to advance disarmament and non-proliferation in Asia at regional fora.
The Prime Minister commended the OPCW for its receipt of the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2013 and for its efficient work in the mission to dismantle Syria’s chemical weapons programme. He assured the Director-General of Japan’s continuing commitment to achieving the goals of the Convention and support for the work of the OPCW.
International Women’s Contact invites to “Freemasonry”
By Karin O’Flynn, President IWC The Hague
IWC Guest speaker Jan Willem de Savornin Lohman will introduce the concept of “freemasonry” and discuss questions such as “How free is freemasonry?” and “Is it a secret society or a brotherhood with a secret?”
Officially freemasonry was founded in the early 18th century in London and is closely connected to the Enlightenment. Informally however, it has its roots in the guilds of the Cathedral builders of the late Middle Ages. Famous freemasons were Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Winston Churchill, George Washington, John Wayne, Oscar Wilde, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, in the Netherlands Pieter Jelles Troelstra, Frits Philips and Willem Dress Sr.
Guest speaker Jan Willem is chairman of the lodge ‘De Vriendschap’, which was originally founded in 1809 in Surabaya in the Dutch Indians. Freemasonry evokes many different reactions and interpretations, both friendly and hostile and if you are interested in finding out more about this topic, you are most welcome to attend this IWC event.
Monday, April 14th, 10 to 12 o’clock, at Crowne Plaza, The Hague.
Guests are requested to register via secretary@iwcthehague.nl and to pay a guest fee of €5, contributing therewith to the charity fund of the club. This lecture is part of a large range of activities the International Women’s Contact is organising for its members. For more information, please consult our website www.iwcthehague.nl.
Ciconia Confort
By Drs. Eva Maria Mennes
Just one hour before the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague, the violin orchestra Ciconia Confort Foundation celebrated the beginning of Spring with the Sacre du Printemps in the Nieuwe Kerk at the Spui, The Hague. The director and artistic leader of this orchestra which was founded in 2012, Dick van Gasteren gave an introduction on the composer Otto Ketting (1935-2012) of Souvenirs du Printemps, the first performance and also of Igor Stravinsky (1882-1971) who’s Apollon, ballet en deux tablaux followed. The Suite Appalacian spring, ballet for Martha of composer Aaron Copland (1900-1990) followed after the intermission. The beautiful music was accompanied by a power point presentation with pictures of Stravinsky, Diagilev and famous ballet dancers and performances.
Picture: Juliette van Bavel
New Honorary Consuls for Belgium
By Bonnie Klap, Editor in Chief.
His Excellency Mr. Frank Geerkens, Ambassador of Belgium, hosted a reception at his residence to introduce two new Honorary Consuls. Mr. Dries van der Vossen, Managing Director of the Bilderberg Hotels, will be the new Honorary Consul for Belgium in Amsterdam and Mr. Lex Fontein, Director/Managing partner of Hudig & Veder B.V. will be the new Honorary Consul in Rotterdam. The reception was well attended by several EU-Ambassadors, Ambassadors, dignitaries of Ministries and representatives of the Belgian Business-community. Ambassador Geerkens is known for his tireless support of the Belgian-Dutch business ties. 
Adios, Ambassador Wagner
By Bonnie Klap, Editor in Chief.
After having served his country in The Netherlands for six years His Excellency Mr. Allan Wagner Tízon, Ambassador of Peru, will return to his home country, where he will enjoy a well-deserved retirement. Ambassador Wagner and his wife, Mrs. Julia de la Guerra de Wagner, hosted a farewell-reception at their residence in Wassenaar, where the guests were welcomed with the typical Peruvian drink ‘Pisco-Sour.’ “We are very sad to see him leave,” was an often heard remark among the many guests, who had come to bid farewell. 
Chemical Removed from Syria
Portion of Chemical Stockpile Removed from Syria Rises Past 45%.
Directly from the OPCW.
The OPCW-UN Joint Mission confirmed today that two additional consignments including both Priority 1 and Priority 2 chemicals were delivered to the port of Latakia and loaded onto cargo vessels during the past week. The latest movements increased the portion of chemicals that have now been removed from Syria for destruction outside the country to more than 45%. The updated figures are as follow: Priority 1 chemicals removed: 29.5 %* Priority 2 chemicals removed: 82.6 % Total chemicals removed: 45.6 % Most recent consignments: Consignment #10: 17 March 2014 Consignment # 9: 14 March 2014 * Includes all sulfur mustard, the only unitary chemical warfare agent in Syria’s arsenal For more details on the OPCW’s activities in Syria, visit our special web page. As the implementing body for the Chemical Weapons Convention, the OPCW oversees the global campaign to permanently eliminate these weapons. Since its entry into force in 1997 the Convention has become the fastest growing arms treaty in history with 190 States Parties, and 82% of all declared chemical arsenals have already been destroyed under OPCW verification – an unprecedented achievement in the annals of disarmament.Saint Patrick’s Day
By Bonnie Klap, Editor in Chief.
Her Excellency Mrs. Mary Whelan, Ambassador of Ireland, and her husband, Mr. Kevin O’Malley, hosted a reception to celebrate Saint Patrick’s Day. Saint Patrick’s Day is a cultural and religious holiday, which is celebrated annually on March 17th all over the world. On Saint Patrick’s Day it is customary to wear something green. Ambassador Whelan honored this tradition, as did her husband and several of her guests. The reception was held at the Ambassador’s residence in Wassenaar and was attended by close to 200 guests. 
Ambassador Arias to host DMG in April
H.E. Luis Arias, will host Diplomats Meet & Greet at Carlton Ambassador Hotel on 3 April, from 6pm. The evening will showcase DR’s music and country dance with a warmth Caribbean flavor. Ron Brugal will be served as welcome drink. Many guests will be coming from all over the Netherlands.
