By Sazzad Haider
This month, the Ukraine crisis has taken a new turn. As usual, every day Ukraine is constantly losing ground and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is begging the West for more weapons. And he is assuring his people that Russia will soon be defeated.
Three events this month could have major implications for the war in Ukraine.
The first event was, in the British general election the defeat of Rishi Sunak, one of the mastermind of the Ukraine war. But the election results of UK election is not a big concern for President Zelenskyy. The Labor Party promised him long ago as saying: “if there is a change of government after the election, there will be no change in Britain’s resolve to stand with Ukraine, confront Russian aggression and pursue [Russian President Vladimir] Putin for his war crimes.”
However the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer may not be as generous as Sunak in helping Ukraine.
While Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is not too much worried about the results of the British elections, the upcoming US elections have enough reasons for him to worry about. Republican candidate Donald Trump is likely to win the November election.
Trump said that he could end the Ukraine war ‘within 24 hours’ if he won the November elections. According to U.S. media Trump would shift the U.S. position on Ukraine. Moreover, he will create a two-tier NATO system; only members who met the 2 percent spending threshold would get the “security guarantee of the U.S.
Vladimir Putin responded with great enthusiasm for trump’s desire to stop war. Putin said that he took Trump’s words seriously. While Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reacted with shock and dismay to the remarks of Trump. “If Trump knows how to finish this war, he should tell us today,” Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
In his previous tenure as US President, Donald Trump was the pathfinder of 21-century’s American Isolationist policy as he adopted his “America First” agenda to retreat from a leading contributor to its traditional allies. He raised the question of the existence of NATO and pushed the alliance to the verge of break up.
He pulled out from the Paris climate treaty, the Iranian nuclear deal and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. He also reduced the US’ global responsibilities in the UNESCO, the United Nations Human Rights Council and the World Health Organization. Significantly, he began a large repatriation of U.S. soldiers from Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.
In October 2019, Trump launched a drive to withdraw the US troops from northern Syria. Trump also restrained from the opportunity to oust Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. In his tenure, former US President Donald Trump also avoided further direct war.
If Trump is elected he would convince Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to sign a peace treaty with Russia. Ukraine does not have the ability to continue a one-hour war with Russia without the US support. There is no doubt that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will have to make a huge concession for this. The concession that the late Statesman Henry Kissinger had spoken of at the beginning of the war.
In 2022, Former U.S. secretary of state Henry A. Kissinger said at a conference at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia to help end the invasion as a vast majority of Ukrainians are against the war. He also urged the United States and the West to not seek an embarrassing defeat for Russia in Ukraine, warning it could worsen Europe’s long-term stability.
One of the goals of the Ukraine war was to strengthen the security of NATO countries by defeating Russia and expanding NATO. But after two years of war and not being able to defeat Putin, the whole of Europe is now suffering from depression. Apart from military and economic support to Ukraine, the burden of Ukrainian refugees has exhausted Europe. This has created a division between NATO countries. The latest Moscow visit of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin has unearthed the NATO division.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen criticized Orban’s Moscow visit, termed “appeasement will not stop” Putin. Now we have to wait and see, what kind of measures NATO will take against the Hungarian Prime Minister in the wake of this unexpected visit.
Without a doubt, a cease-fire without the recovery of all Ukrainian territory would be a failure of NATO and in the future no country would step into NATO’s fold like Ukraine. On the other hand, if Trump wins the US election, it will be seen how effective NATO will be.
At this moment there is no chance of stopping the war in Ukraine. Because Putin will not give back the won land of Ukraine in any order. On the other hand, it is not possible for Zelenskyy to sign a peace agreement without recovering the occupied territories. But if Trump wins, or if the U.S. wants to, peace is possible at a moment’s notice. Because the United States has many examples of running away leaving its best allies in danger. In the last century, this kind of incident happened in Vietnam or Iran and recently in Afghanistan. So no matter what the mouth says, it is clear that President Zelenskyy is in great danger.
