By Ms. Yi Wang
The 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) will be held from November 11 to 22, 2024, in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. Over 100 heads of state and government are expected to attend the conference. The primary goal of COP29 is for wealthy countries to fund poorer nations in their efforts to combat climate change. To this end, participants are seeking to establish a climate action fund aimed at raising trillions of dollars, with voluntary contributions from fossil fuel-producing countries and companies.
However, many leaders from the world’s major economies will be absent from this important event. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, U.S. President Joe Biden, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba have all canceled their plans to attend. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have also stated they will not participate. Neither Mexico nor China has been included in the agenda for leaders’ speeches at the UN climate summit. Whether due to domestic political developments or personal reasons, their absence signals that COP29 negotiations are unlikely to yield a new climate action agreement, making it difficult to secure additional financial resources. This hesitation among developed countries in fulfilling their climate commitments suggests uncertainty about the outcomes of the conference.
Western countries, particularly in Europe and the U.S., have notably downplayed the issue of moving away from fossil fuels.” For them, the more pressing concerns are energy security, price stability, and inflation reduction. Following the U.S. presidential election, after the victory of Donald Trump, it is expected that oil and gas production will increase to lower electricity costs. South Korean officials are considering increasing imports of U.S. oil and natural gas. Changes in Germany’s coalition government also highlight the challenges of balancing economic transformation with key measures for emissions reduction, pointing to significant political divisions in decision-making.
Global investors are increasingly dissatisfied with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) regulatory requirements and, in the pursuit of higher returns, are willing to abandon their green commitments. British oil giant BP has announced plans to abandon its restrictions on fossil fuel production, with its new strategy focusing on investing in oil and gas in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico. Shell had earlier indicated it might slow down its emissions reduction efforts, and its latest energy transition strategy has lowered its targets.
Moving away from fossil fuels is proving to be a difficult task. Amid various disruptions and obstacles, momentum seems to be waning. Hence, the expectations for climate financing at COP29 are likely to fall short this year.
1. Localized military conflicts and their increased intensity are generating the most carbon emissions. Parties have failed to reach agreements on ceasefires, and negotiations on military withdrawals are unlikely to form any substantial agreements. Military activities are consuming vast amounts of resources, placing a greater burden of responsibility for global climate change and damage. In developed Western countries, military spending continues to rise, while domestic economic growth slows, making it difficult to quickly deliver on climate financing commitments.
2. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, armed conflicts in the Red Sea, and other tense situations, flights have been rerouted, and commercial ships have altered their paths, further complicating efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Many air routes have been forced to change, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions on both land and sea. Emissions reductions in aviation have a long way to go, especially in terms of reducing the use of traditional aviation fuel. Transportation costs have already risen sharply in many countries, and prioritizing survival has become more important than other concerns. The loss of enthusiasm for climate action may be unavoidable.
3. The explosive growth of artificial intelligence applications has led to a rapid expansion in electricity demand. The production of chips, the construction of cloud data centers, and cryptocurrency mining all consume vast amounts of electricity. In the short term, addressing power shortages is more urgent than the source to generate electricity, and most countries are unable to complete a full transition to clean energy in time.
This year is expected to be the hottest one on record, with an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, torrential rainfall, and typhoons, alongside the proliferation of infectious diseases and declines in agricultural yields. These trends are largely driven by climate change and its far-reaching effects. As the full scope of these risks becomes increasingly apparent, it is of utmost importance to critically assess the intricate interplay between economic and social development and climate change. This is not a concern limited to a select few or political leaders. Rather, the climate agenda is inextricably linked to the collective well-being, resilience, and long-term sustainability of societies and individuals across the globe.
About the author:
Yi Wang is Head of Global Development Program and Senior Researcher at ANBOUND.
