The Bridge Between Our Nations

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The Bridge Between Our Nations

A Conversation with H.E. Mr. Almir Šahović, Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Kingdom of the Netherlands

Diplomat Magazine had the pleasure of meeting H.E. Mr. Almir Šahović, Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Kingdom of the Netherlands and Permanent Representative to the OPCW, for an insightful discussion on the evolving relations between his country and the Netherlands. The Ambassador shared thoughtful reflections on diplomacy, economic cooperation, cultural ties, and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s European aspirations.

Speaking about the current state of relations between the two nations, Ambassador Šahović said:

“The relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Netherlands are very good and friendly. We enjoy strong political and economic ties, and the Netherlands is the seventh most important foreign investor in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We are pleased to see a growing number of Dutch companies interested in working with Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Bosnian companies starting to invest in the Netherlands.”

“Another important link between our two countries is the Bosnian and Herzegovinian diaspora. Around 60,000 people from Bosnia and Herzegovina live in the Netherlands. They serve as a true bridge between our nations — real ambassadors of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Netherlands, and of the Netherlands in Bosnia and Herzegovina.”

When asked about Bosnia and Herzegovina’s progress toward European integration, Ambassador Šahović reaffirmed that EU membership remains the country’s highest foreign policy goal.

“EU accession is the highest priority of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s foreign policy. In this context, we highly appreciate the Netherlands’ support for our European path. We are aware that the traditional Dutch approach to EU enlargement is summarized by the principle ‘strict but fair,’ and that the Netherlands sometimes places greater emphasis on the full implementation of conditions required from candidate countries than some other EU partners.

All the more, we are pleased that the Netherlands has recognized Bosnia and Herzegovina’s strong commitment to its European future. Over the past four years, we succeeded in securing Dutch support for the EU’s decision to grant Bosnia and Herzegovina candidate status, as well as for the opening of accession negotiations with our country.”

On the topic of EU-level initiatives such as border security and institutional capacity building, the Ambassador stressed Bosnia and Herzegovina’s alignment with Dutch and EU efforts:

“We strongly support the Netherlands’ participation in EU-level initiatives such as border security cooperation and institutional capacity building. These initiatives are crucial not only for EU member states but also for candidate countries, as they help strengthen overall regional stability and preparedness for eventual EU membership.”

Looking toward the future, Ambassador Šahović noted several promising areas for bilateral cooperation, highlighting culture as a growing field of exchange:

“In general, I believe there is still much potential to further intensify cooperation between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Netherlands — not only in politics and the economy, but also in the field of culture. A good example of this was the exhibition of the artwork Bird of Peace by the renowned Bosnian artist Mirza Morić, which was displayed in front of The Hague City Hall last summer. It demonstrated the great potential for cultural collaboration between our two countries.”

When discussing people-to-people connections, Ambassador Šahović underlined their importance for lasting understanding:

“People-to-people connections are essential for building understanding and practical cooperation between our two countries. As Ambassador, I strive to encourage such activities by visiting various Dutch cities and institutions. We have established particularly strong cooperation between Sarajevo and The Hague, especially involving young people.

I have also visited Maastricht, Arnhem, Nijmegen, and Groningen to promote local-level cooperation. In addition, I regularly give lectures on Bosnia and Herzegovina at different Dutch universities, helping to deepen academic and cultural ties between our nations.”

He also referred to the shared remembrance of the Srebrenica Genocide as a deeply meaningful component of bilateral understanding:

“In close cooperation with the Association of Survivors of the Srebrenica Genocide, as well as with the City of The Hague and several other cities and universities — particularly Utrecht University — we regularly organize and participate in various activities aimed at preserving the memory of and honoring the victims of the Srebrenica Genocide.

The Srebrenica Genocide forms part of our shared Bosnia and Herzegovina–Dutch history and our common memory.”

Reflecting on his tenure of more than four years in the Netherlands, the Ambassador shared highlights of his diplomatic achievements:

“Having served for over four years as Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Netherlands and Permanent Representative to the OPCW, I am proud of the results we have achieved.

Among other accomplishments, we successfully organized two official presidential visits from Bosnia and Herzegovina. As I mentioned earlier, we also secured Dutch support for the EU’s decision to grant Bosnia and Herzegovina candidate status and to open accession negotiations.

Furthermore, Bosnia and Herzegovina was, for the first time, elected as a member of the Bureau of the International Criminal Court.

I also had the honor of being elected Chairperson of the 29th Conference of the States Parties to the OPCW and was entrusted by the OPCW Member States to chair the Open-Ended Working Group on the implementation of rules governing the election of members of the Executive Council.”

Ambassador Šahović’s words reflect a vision of partnership built on dialogue, shared values, and human connection. The bridge between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Netherlands — strengthened by trade, culture, and the dynamic Bosnian community — continues to stand as an attribute of friendship, cooperation, and mutual respect.

How the BCE Doctrine Can Benefit China in Great Power Relations

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How the BCE Doctrine Can Benefit China in Great Power Relations

By Mr. Kung Chan, founder of ANBOUND Think Tank

Great power relations typically refer to the relations between nations within the international system that wield significant influence, such as the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union. These relations, shaped by their interactions, ultimately determine the direction of the global order. In the context of de-globalization, great power relations have come to represent the dominant power structure of the current era. In contrast, multilateral partnerships, such as U.S.-EU relations and the transatlantic alliance, are also important. However, de-globalization has undermined these multilateral frameworks, particularly as they are in direct opposition to the principles of Trumpism and the stance of American conservatives, particularly the “America First” doctrine. This ideological shift exposes a clear contradiction in U.S. foreign policy.

At its core, Trumpism is not concerned with multilateral institutions like the transatlantic partnership but rather focuses on strengthening bilateral relations among great powers. This focus helps explain why Trump consistently sought to maintain favorable relations with Russia and, despite various challenges, advanced ties with China. Some observers may highlight Trump’s recent visit to the United Kingdom, but in reality, this was more about his desire for global recognition and status, and indeed a sort of “monarchical mindset”. Trump aimed to elevate himself on the world stage, seeking recognition not from multilateral organizations but from powerful nations with traditional significance, like the U.K. However, his visit could not resolve the deeper ideological rifts between the liberal and conservative factions within the Anglo-American relationship. As noted by King Charles III during a banquet, Trump’s stances on issues such as aid to Ukraine, immigration, and environmental concerns were sharply criticized. Nevertheless, in the context of Trump’s broader worldview, these issues remain secondary. The British, of course, are well aware of this tendency.

For China, navigating the evolving landscape of great power relations requires a thoughtful and strategic approach. From a geopolitical perspective, the new international relations theory called “Balance, Cooperation, Existence” (BCE) could serve as both a guiding framework and a strategic approach for it to interact with other great powers.

The “Balance” component emphasizes the need for interdependence and mutual benefits in areas such as trade, industry, and regional interests. This requires both give-and-take, ensuring that all parties stand to gain. The “Cooperation” aspect stresses the importance of regional collaboration as a foundation for broader cooperation on specific issues. Crucially, cooperation is the key to maintaining peace and facilitating competition without leading to total breakdowns in great power relations. Finally, “Existence” underscores the importance of maintaining sovereignty and independence by avoiding entangling alliances that could compromise a nation’s interests. It advocates for China to safeguard its national interests while maintaining its stature as a key player on the global stage.

The BCE theory should form the foundation of China’s approach to future great power relations. In this framework, China should present BCE as a conceptual model for international understanding, representing a geopolitical philosophy grounded in existential principles. This approach focuses on balance rather than confrontation, cooperation over isolation, and independence rather than aggression. In a world marked by ongoing tensions, China’s adoption of the BCE framework will enhance its international standing, making it a respected and recognized global force. The key to achieving this status lies in the world’s recognition of China’s legitimate place in global affairs and a willingness to engage in dialogue based on balance and cooperation.

Great power relations are inherently complex and delicate, especially for emerging powers like China. In seeking a prominent role on the global stage, it is essential for China to draw upon historical lessons, one of the most important being the need to avoid overextending. While strategic competitions are integral to great power relations, they do not necessitate all-out confrontation. Overexertion or seeking to decisively defeat rivals in a single blow is neither a sustainable nor appropriate approach in great power relations and is counterproductive to the BCE framework.

In its dealings with the global community, China will need to adopt a diplomatic language that resonates universally, clearly articulating its national position and aspirations. Only through this approach can China truly enter the realm of great power relations and assert itself as a pivotal player in shaping the global order.

Sanae Takaichi’s Ascent: Implications for Japan’s Domestic Politics and Regional Strategy

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Sanae Takaichi’s Ascent: Implications for Japan’s Domestic Politics and Regional Strategy

By Kung Chan, ANBOUND’s founder, and Zhou Chao, Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND. 

On October 4, 2025, Japan experienced a historic political milestone with the election of Sanae Takaichi as President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Now Japan’s first female Prime Minister, her rise marks a watershed moment in the country’s political history.

Takaichi has long been identified as a hardline conservative. Often compared to U.S. President Donald Trump, she has been dubbed “Japan’s Trump” for her unapologetically nationalist stance and populist overtones.

A close political ally of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi rose to prominence during his administration and was widely seen as a key figure within Japan’s conservative bloc. Following Abe’s assassination, she positioned herself as the ideological successor to his legacy, consolidating support across LDP factions. Her political agenda is firmly anchored in the far-right spectrum. She supports the continuation of “Abenomics,” advocating large-scale public spending and ultra-loose monetary policy. On constitutional reform, she seeks to revise Article 9 to formally recognize the Self-Defense Forces and insists on maintaining a patrilineal imperial succession, opposing the notion of a reigning empress. Her views on history and foreign policy are marked by revisionism, including denial of Japan’s wartime aggression, a staunchly pro-American orientation, vocal criticism of China, and a generally exclusionary stance toward immigration.

In the wake of her election, many observers anticipate that Takaichi will actively pursue the full implementation of her policy platform, effectively translating Abe’s ideological legacy into institutional form. While Takaichi’s leadership may introduce greater uncertainty into the Japan-China relationship, her policy choices will be shaped by significant structural constraints. A more meaningful shift may lie in Japan’s foreign policy trajectory toward an “Asian rebalancing”.

U.S.-Japan Relations: Strategic Priorities and Constraints

Managing relations with the United States will likely remain Takaichi’s foremost foreign policy priority. Japan’s strategic imperative is to safeguard its national security while expanding its economic and technological interests. This involves maintaining the security umbrella provided by the U.S.-Japan alliance, while seeking greater autonomy in diplomatic and economic affairs.

Takaichi is expected to pursue a stance that is firm yet strategically flexible. Rather than provoking open conflict with Washington, she may favor institutionalized, phased negotiations to manage differences on contentious issues such as defense cost-sharing, high-tech export controls, supply chain restructuring, and market access. Her likely approach would involve segmenting complex negotiations into smaller, manageable parts, leveraging public opinion and parliamentary dynamics to expand her room for maneuver.

Key constraints will include the unpredictability of U.S. domestic politics, especially the potential return of Trump-style leadership, and Japanese domestic concerns about over-dependence or excessive alignment with U.S. interests. Indicators of this policy direction may include the frequency of economic issues in bilateral talks, the public framing of defense negotiations, and the scope of reciprocal access gained in high-tech sectors.

Defense Policy: Between Deterrence and Industrial Strategy

Japan’s recent efforts to modernize and expand its defense capabilities are likely to continue under Takaichi, driven by both security concerns and industrial policy goals. Her administration may pursue multi-year defense budget commitments to reduce political friction, integrate defense procurement with industrial subsidies to localize supply chains, and promote civil-military fusion to boost high-tech industries such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence.

Key priorities may include enhancing anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, improving maritime and aerial intelligence systems, and strengthening reserve mobilization. She may also move to ease restrictions on arms exports, enabling greater production scale and international collaboration.

Nevertheless, significant constraints remain. Constitutional limitations, Japan’s pacifist postwar identity, fiscal sustainability, and reliance on foreign suppliers all pose barriers. The trajectory of defense policy under her leadership will likely be gradual, marked by institutional safeguards. Observables include trends in the defense budget, domestic procurement ratios, and approved arms export cases.

Taiwan Policy: Symbolism Versus Strategic Restraint

Takaichi’s longstanding pro-Taiwan stance does not necessarily portend direct confrontation with Mainland China. A more pragmatic approach may involve deepening non-military support, such as trade, civil exchanges, technological cooperation, and intelligence-sharing, while maintaining strategic ambiguity on military matters. This would allow Japan to demonstrate solidarity without crossing red lines.

Constraints here are formidable: economic retaliation from China, domestic opposition to military entanglement, and the delicate balance of alliance commitments and regional stability. Indicators to monitor include changes in exchange policies, levels of parliamentary engagement, and the nature of Japan’s involvement in crisis scenarios.

Domestic Politics and Political Longevity

Takaichi’s political survival will hinge not solely on her ideological commitments but on her capacity to deliver economic results while balancing domestic and international agendas. If she can unify the LDP through pragmatic policies that generate tangible outcomes, such as job creation, regional development, and fiscal revitalization, her tenure may well outlast Japan’s recent trend of short-lived prime ministers.

Conversely, an excessively hardline stance on controversial issues, without economic payoff, could alienate voters and provoke internal party divisions. Her likely strategy will be to incrementally advance key policies while keeping options open for retreat on high-risk issues. Variables to watch include intra-party dynamics, voting cohesion in the Diet, approval ratings, and local election results.

Japan-China Relations: Contradictions and Calculated Engagement

Takaichi’s policy stance reflects a predictable dual logic: assertiveness when domestic or alliance politics require it, and pragmatism when economic interests are at stake. China would be wise not to dismiss her as merely another hardliner. Instead, it should seek institutionalized, interest-based engagement, focusing on dialogue, technological cooperation, and shared regional challenges like climate change and economic resilience.

Yet underlying tensions, particularly historical grievances and territorial disputes, will continue to cloud the relationship. Indicators of future direction include the frequency and tenor of high-level exchanges, continuity in joint economic projects, and alignment in multilateral forums.

Toward an “Asian Rebalancing”?

Japan may increasingly pursue a recalibrated foreign policy that reduces excessive reliance on any one power and enhances its regional autonomy. This “Asian Rebalancing” does not imply a rejection of the U.S. alliance, but rather a gradual shift toward diversified diplomatic and economic engagement across Asia.

Takaichi may view regional cooperation, as with ASEAN and even China, as a way to hedge against uncertainty and assert Japan’s independent role in regional architecture. Areas of potential engagement include infrastructure, energy, climate, and technology. The extent to which this rebalancing progresses will depend on U.S. expectations, domestic political flexibility, and the broader evolution of U.S.-China competition.

Economic Focus: Abenomics Revisited

Finally, economic policy is expected to be Takaichi’s initial priority. Her first major move may be to devalue the yen, i.e., reviving the logic of Abenomics by making Japanese exports more competitive and stimulating a stock market rally. This approach, like Trump’s early economic moves, may prioritize visible, immediate impacts over complex geopolitical recalibration. It could generate short-term corporate gains and popular support, providing political capital for her broader agenda.

France’s Candidate to the ICJ: Ambassador François Alabrune on Law, Diplomacy, and the Pursuit of Justice

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France’s Candidate to the ICJ: Ambassador François Alabrune on Law, Diplomacy, and the Pursuit of Justice

The Ambassador of France to the Kingdom of the Netherlands, H.E. Mr. François Alabrune, recently spoke with Diplomat Magazine about his nomination as France’s candidate for the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In a thoughtful and engaging conversation, the seasoned diplomat reflected on the challenges facing international law, the ICJ’s evolving role, and his lifelong vocation of service to justice and diplomacy.

Ambassador Alabrune, whose distinguished career spans over three decades, is widely recognized for his legal expertise and commitment to the principles that underpin the international legal order. His candidacy for the ICJ, he explained, represents both a personal honour and a natural continuation of a career dedicated to the service of law and peace.

“I accepted the nomination as a candidate for the International Court of Justice both as an honour and as the outcome of a lifelong commitment to serving international law,” he said. “My vocation in this field took shape early in my career, having been trained by mentors with experience as judges at the ICJ, such as Gilbert Guillaume and Ronny Abraham.” “Throughout my legal and diplomatic career, I have witnessed how law contributes to peace. If elected, I would be honoured to place this experience at the service of the Court, with the aim of maintaining and strengthening its role. I will be eager to work to promote the values that underpin its legitimacy – in particular impartiality and the diversity of legal traditions – in the service of the international community.”

Reflecting on the relevance of the Court today, Ambassador Alabrune acknowledged that the international legal system is being tested by a rapidly changing global environment.

“International law is today facing challenges, in particular to its universality and the risk of a weakening of multilateralism,” he observed. “The issues brought before the Court are increasingly complex, intertwining legal, environmental, economic, and technological dimensions.”

Nevertheless, he remains confident in the ICJ’s role as a pillar of stability and legitimacy in international relations.

“Through the quality, coherence, and independence of its jurisprudence, the ICJ demonstrates that law remains the essential framework for relations between States,” he added. “By maintaining close dialogue with other international courts and UN bodies, the Court strengthens the coherence and credibility of the international legal order.”

Ambassador Alabrune’s long experience in The Hague has given him a unique vantage point on the delicate balance between law and diplomacy.

“For more than twenty years as a legal adviser and jurisconsult, I have applied international law in politically sensitive contexts,” he said. “Law is never exercised in the abstract—it must be interpreted with rigour, while taking into account the diplomatic realities that shape its implementation.” he said. “Serving as an ambassador in The Hague offers the privilege of daily dialogue with the actors of the International Court of Justice and many other actors within the multilateral system. This proximity has given me a practical understanding of how law and diplomacy interact: law sets the rules, while diplomacy creates the conditions for their elaboration and implementation.

France’s longstanding dedication to international law also finds continuity in his candidacy.

“France’s commitment to international law is reflected in its active participation in the negotiation and promotion of numerous treaties, as well as in proceedings before international courts,” he noted. “My candidacy reflects this commitment to the promotion and respect of international law, drawing on my experience, particularly as the Legal Adviser of France and later as Ambassador to the Netherlands.”

Looking toward the future, Ambassador Alabrune emphasized the moral imperative of upholding justice at a time of global uncertainty.

“In the current international context, marked by existential questions for Humanity, the need for justice is paramount,” he said. “Today, more than ever, it is essential to demonstrate determination and courage to uphold the rule of law. The growing engagement of the international community in the proceedings before the ICJ offers hope. The work of the Court deserves the support of us all.”

As France’s candidate to the International Court of Justice, Ambassador François Alabrune embodies a vision of international law rooted in principle, inclusion, and service to the common good—a vision that resonates deeply in The Hague, the city of peace and justice.

GAFG Essay Competition

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GAFG Essay Competition

The 2025 Technology, Mind & Health Essay Competition is open to students and young thinkers to write about balancing technology and mental well-being. Submissions are due November 16, 2025, and should be sent to info@balkanyouthcooperation.com. The competition is organized by the Global Academy of Future Governance (GAFG) and the Balkan Youth Co-operation (BYC). 

President Gatti Santana Addresses the United Nations General Assembly

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President Gatti Santana Addresses the United Nations General Assembly

Arusha / The Hague, 22 October 2025 — The President of the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT), Judge Graciela Gatti Santana, presented the Mechanism’s thirteenth Annual Report to the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

At the outset, President Gatti Santana congratulated H.E. Ms. Annalena Baerbock of the Federal Republic of Germany on her election as President of the 80th session of the General Assembly. She noted that she shares the President’s vision that the United Nations must preserve its past achievements while adapting boldly to confront present and future challenges — a principle also guiding the Mechanism’s work.

The President emphasized that, with the consistent support of the General Assembly, the Mechanism and its predecessors — the International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and for Rwanda — have delivered justice, documented historical facts, and developed international legal standards and best practices. These, she said, form the foundation of today’s global accountability efforts. President Gatti Santana underlined that this legacy must be protected and that responsibly concluding the “justice cycle” remains vital. The Mechanism, she affirmed, is committed to being a partner in change — reducing costs, transferring or terminating functions no longer required, and upholding the principled application of international law.

She noted that the Mechanism continues to carry out a range of mandated tasks, including adjudicating residual judicial matters, supervising the enforcement of sentences, supporting national jurisdictions in prosecuting perpetrators of international crimes, monitoring referred cases, and managing the preservation and access to its archives and those of its predecessors. These residual functions, she stressed, are essential:

“Verdicts must not only be entered; sentences must be enforced. Reconciliation is advanced by comprehensive accountability. Protecting and ensuring access to judicially established facts is critical today due to growing and systemic revisionism and genocidal denial.”

President Gatti Santana also highlighted the Mechanism’s collaboration with other UN entities in assisting the Secretary-General with two reports requested by the Security Council under Resolution 2740 (2024), concerning the future of certain functions. She reiterated that it is for the Secretary-General to recommend, and the Council to decide, whether such functions should be transferred. Meanwhile, the Mechanism continues to align with the Council’s vision of a small, temporary institution — reducing staff and resources since 2020, adjusting its legal framework to avoid resource-intensive proceedings, and streamlining operations in the supervision of sentence enforcement.

The President underscored that the Mechanism’s efficient completion of its mandate depends on the cooperation of Member States. She pointed to the three persons still held in the United Nations Detention Unit in The Hague, as well as the five persons relocated to Niger in 2021 after acquittal or completion of their sentences — all of whom remain under the Mechanism’s care, generating significant financial costs.

In closing, President Gatti Santana reaffirmed the enduring message of the Mechanism and its predecessor tribunals:

“Possessing the power and resources to commit mass atrocities today does not insulate any individual from accountability tomorrow.”

She cautioned that the international community must not “falter in this last mile of the justice cycle and risk undoing all that has come before.” President Gatti Santana concluded by assuring the Assembly that the Mechanism stands ready to work with both the General Assembly and the Security Council to find innovative solutions to complete its mandate fairly, efficiently, and at an appropriate cost, and she expressed gratitude to Member States for their continued support.

Peace in Ukraine Through Washington and Moscow, via Budapest. Where Does Bucharest Stand?

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Peace in Ukraine Through Washington and Moscow, via Budapest. Where Does Bucharest Stand?

“Peace is not decided where blood is shed, but where maps are redrawn.”


By Lieutenant General (ret) Corneliu Pivariu

For more than two and a half years, the war in Ukraine has become not only a human tragedy and a test of national resilience but also a battleground of great powers — a field where diplomacy intertwines with global economic and geopolitical interests. Throughout this period, there have been discreet attempts at dialogue between Washington and Moscow, as well as several European or regional initiatives seeking to outline the premises of a potential peace.

Increasingly, Budapest seems to emerge as a link between the two power centers. Hungary, maintaining an active channel of communication with Moscow while remaining a NATO and EU member state, is skillfully positioning itself as an informal yet pragmatic intermediary in a context where other European actors prefer firm rhetoric over direct dialogue.

General Context

Both the United States and Russia share, in the medium term, an interest in stabilizing the situation. Washington envisions a global strategic reconfiguration in which the Asia-Pacific pivot becomes a priority, requiring that efforts and resources allocated to Ukraine be rationalized. Moscow, on the other hand, seeks to consolidate its territorial gains and avoid internal exhaustion that could threaten the regime’s stability. Within this fragile balance, any credible intermediary—be it a state, organization, or leader—can play a role of varying importance.

Budapest – A Discreet Channel Between Washington and Moscow

Hungary has cultivated a unique position within the European Union: it maintains close economic and energy relations with Russia, yet participates fully in NATO structures and EU mechanisms. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been among the few European leaders to continue direct dialogue with the Kremlin while simultaneously keeping a pragmatic openness toward Washington, regardless of the administration in power.

Regarding the outcome of the negotiations that were supposed to begin shortly in Budapest[1], the most likely scenario is that they would mark a principled agreement and a formulation along the lines of: “the parties acknowledge the necessity of a negotiated solution and commit themselves to avoiding further escalation.” The front will remain relatively stable, and diplomacy could regain the initiative in place of military actions. More, however, will become clear after the Budapest round.

It is not by chance that some working diplomatic channels between East and West seem to discreetly pass through Budapest. Against the backdrop of an evident deadlock in multilateral negotiations, this seemingly peripheral capital is transforming into a balancing point for indirect Russo-American discussions about the architecture of Europe’s future order.

A Symbol of Security Guarantees: The Budapest Memorandum

Budapest also carries special historical significance. It was here, in 1994, that the Budapest Memorandum was signed — the document by which Ukraine renounced its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. The memorandum stipulated respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity—commitments gravely violated with the annexation of Crimea and later, with the 2022 invasion.

Budapest’s return to the forefront of peace discussions is thus not merely a geographical coincidence but also a symbolic reactivation of an international commitment that once seemed to guarantee regional stability—or perhaps, an irony of history itself.

The European Union – Between Declarative Solidarity and Strategic Fragmentation

The European Union as a whole is going through a period of strategic ambiguity. Although support for Ukraine remains a point of declarative consensus, there are significant differences among member states regarding the level of military involvement, the economic sustainability of aid, and perspectives on possible negotiations with Russia.

Hungary plays here a double, yet calculated, game: through its critical discourse toward Brussels, it consolidates its internal and regional position, but never leaves the European institutional framework. In reality, Budapest capitalizes on the EU’s internal contradictions to legitimize itself as a “realist voice” in a chorus of often idealistic messages.

Thus, the European Union—caught between its economic dependencies and its desire for strategic autonomy—fails to articulate a concrete peace proposal of its own (or perhaps chooses not to), leaving the initiative to others.

Washington and Moscow – Signs of a Cautious Recalibration

In both the American capital and the Kremlin, a more measured tone has become noticeable in recent months. In the United States, public opinion and Congress appear increasingly reluctant to support an open-ended military effort, while Russia seeks to achieve a “positional peace” that would legitimize its territorial gains.

Hence the renewed interest in indirect negotiation formats involving intermediary capitals. Budapest, but also Ankara and even Beijing, play subtle roles in this network of diplomatic messages and signals—where nothing is officially declared, yet everything is carefully calculated.

Bucharest – Spectator or Actor?

Romania, situated on the border of the conflict and holding major strategic interest in the stability of the Black Sea region, appears to remain more a cautious spectator than an engaged actor. Although a member of both NATO and the EU, Bucharest has not managed to build a distinct initiative or role in the European dialogue on Ukraine.

While Hungary, Turkey, and even Poland actively promote their own agendas, Romania’s absence from this diplomatic game risks becoming a constant. The lack of a coherent foreign policy strategy, compounded by internal decision-making fragmentation, limits the country’s ability to be perceived as a partner with initiative and regional vision.

In fact, the question in the subtitle is eminently rhetorical, as long as Romania’s political class remains captive to other interests and narrow perspectives.

Peace through Washington and Moscow, via Budapest, is not a metaphor but a diplomatic reality in the making.

Budapest has understood that in a world where great powers negotiate over the heads of regional actors, the one who succeeds in becoming an intermediary or catalyst gains influence—even without major military or economic power. Romania, by contrast, continues to remain within the comfortable zone of strategic conformity, without proposing its own solutions or dialogue platforms.

If peace in Ukraine is ultimately decided—one way or another—through Washington and Moscow, via Budapest, at least two legitimate questions remain for Romania: Where does Bucharest stand?; And how long will Bucharest remain merely an informed but uninvolved capital in the process that will shape the future of Eastern Europe?

Brașov, October 22, 2025

Selective Bibliography
Official Sources and Primary Documents

1. Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, signed in Budapest, 5 December 1994.
 – United Nations Treaty Collection, Depositary Notification C.N.911.1994.TREATIES-5.

2.U.S. Department of State. Press Statements and Briefings on Ukraine and Russia (2022–2025).

3. The Kremlin. Official Transcripts and Statements on the “Special Military Operation” and Peace Proposals (2022–2025).

4. European External Action Service (EEAS). EU Foreign Affairs Council 5. Conclusions on Ukraine and Security Architecture (2023–2025).

NATO. Vilnius and Washington Summit Communiqués (2023, 2024).

 Geopolitical Analyses and Think Tanks
6. Chatham House (London). “Security and Diplomacy in Post-Conflict Ukraine.” Research Paper, 2024.
7. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Negotiating with Moscow: Lessons from the Minsk and Astana Formats.” Policy Brief, 2023.
8. RAND Corporation. “Frozen Conflicts and Negotiated Settlements in Eastern Europe.” Santa Monica, 2023.
9. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “The Future of U.S.–Russia Relations: Limited Engagement under Pressure.” Washington D.C., 2024.
10. Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). “Hungary’s Strategic Hedging in the NATO–Russia Equation.” London, 2024.
11. European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). “Europe’s Divided Response to the Ukrainian War: Between Values and Realpolitik.” Brussels, 2023.
Theoretical Analyses and Reflections
12. Brzezinski, Zbigniew. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books, 1997.
13. Kissinger, Henry. World Order. New York: Penguin Press, 2014.
14. Mearsheimer, John J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton, 2021 (Updated Edition).
15. Walt, Stephen M. “Realism and Restraint in the Age of Multipolarity.” Foreign Affairs, 2023.
16. Severin, Adrian. Policentric Harmony: A New Model of Global Cooperation and Security. Bucharest, 2024.
17. Pivariu, Corneliu. Global Geopolitical Evolutions in the First Quarter of the 21st Century. Romania in This Context. Forecasts for 2050, Financial Intelligence, 2025
 Selected Analytical Articles and Media Sources
18. Financial Times. “Trump, Putin, and the New Architecture of Power: Why Budapest Matters.” October 2025.
19. Reuters. “Hungary to Ensure Putin Can Enter Country for Trump Meeting in Budapest.” October 2025.
20. France 24. “Zelensky Ready to Join Putin–Trump Summit if Invited.” October 2025.
21. Bloomberg. “EU Uneasy as Hungary Hosts Potential Trump–Putin Talks.” October 2025.
22. Diplomat Magazine (The Hague). “Regional Balances and the New European Security Format.” Issue 3/2025.

[1] According to a statement released by the White House on October 21, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced the postponement of the planned meeting in Budapest with Russian President Vladimir Putin to an unspecified later date. The statement noted that the decision was made “following ongoing diplomatic consultations and recent international developments.” (Source: White House Press Office, Statement by the President, October 21, 2025; Reuters, Associated Press, October 22, 2025.)

Four Centuries Forward: The Thai–Dutch Strategic Partnership

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Four Centuries Forward: The Thai–Dutch Strategic Partnership

By H.E. Mr. Asi Mamanee, Ambassador of Thailand to the Kingdom of the Netherlands

In 2024, Thailand and the Netherlands celebrated 420 years of diplomatic relations — one of the longest continuous partnerships between Europe and Asia. What began with 17th-century maritime trade has evolved into a multifaceted partnership spanning technology, agriculture, sustainable development, and innovation.

Today, the Netherlands remains Thailand’s largest investor from the European Union, while Thai companies increasingly use the Netherlands as their gateway to European markets. Bilateral trade between the two countries reached USD 7.4 billion (7,404.27 million) in 2024. These figures underscore the strong and growing economic interdependence between the two nations, built on practical cooperation and shared strategic interests that have deepened over time.

Connecting Two Nations

Strengthening the practical foundations of our partnership remains a top priority. Thailand and the Netherlands share a common vision to enhance connectivity and foster closer ties among our peoples, businesses, and institutions. In this spirit, we look forward to promoting greater mobility between our two nations, which will play a pivotal role in driving future exchanges — bringing government officials, entrepreneurs, researchers, and students ever closer together. Enhanced connectivity will serve as a powerful catalyst for innovation, collaboration, and enduring friendship between our two kingdoms.

During the recent Thailand–Netherlands Political Consultation held in The Hague in September 2025, both countries reaffirmed their commitment to advancing cooperation. As Thailand pursues its Ignite Thailand 2030 vision to become a regional innovation hub, the Netherlands offers complementary, world-class expertise in areas ranging from advanced manufacturing to sustainable agriculture.

Building on Proven Success

The strongest foundation of Thai–Dutch cooperation lies in areas where both countries have achieved concrete results. Dutch expertise in water management has contributed to Thai flood control systems and agricultural water efficiency. Similarly, Dutch innovations in precision agriculture, greenhouse technology, and sustainable food production address Thailand’s specific needs in agricultural productivity and climate adaptation. These collaborations demonstrate what works: clear objectives, technical expertise, and measurable outcomes.

Exploring New Frontiers

Thailand is actively working to deepen partnerships in frontier technology sectors, particularly advanced manufacturing and semiconductors. Building on its strong electronics manufacturing base, skilled workforce, and strategic location at the heart of ASEAN, Thailand stands ready to collaborate with Europe’s leading technology innovators to co-create resilient, sustainable, and future-oriented value chains.

The Netherlands hosts some of Europe’s most advanced capabilities in semiconductor equipment manufacturing, precision engineering, and photonics. Driven by the global supply chain crisis and the geopolitical push for regional resilience, Thailand aims to position itself as a reliable, strategic partner in secure regional production networks.

Collaboration is being explored in areas such as advanced semiconductor assembly, packaging and testing, photonics, and green energy technologies. The Knowledge-to-Knowledge (K2K) model — which prioritises research partnerships and talent exchange before large-scale industrial commitments — offers a pragmatic pathway for initial cooperation in these complex, high-tech fields.

Translating Policy into Action

The Royal Thai Embassy in The Hague has initiated several targeted programmes to translate high-level policy into practical cooperation:

  • Investment Showcase: In June 2025, the Embassy co-hosted a seminar on the Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) Economy in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), showcasing investment opportunities and inviting Dutch companies to partner in clean energy and circular innovation. In September 2025, the Embassy participated in the 5th Thai–Netherlands Business Forum, organised by Thailand’s Board of Investment, to highlight investment opportunities in Thailand.
  • Human Capital Development: In August 2025, the Embassy supported Thai engineering students to attend the Eindhoven Semicon Summer School, focusing on the critical development of human capital through hands-on training.
  • Technical Fact-Finding Mission: In September 2025, Dutch representatives visited Thailand’s semiconductor ecosystem. These reciprocal exchanges are vital for Dutch stakeholders to gain a deeper understanding of Thailand’s technical capabilities and to identify areas for future collaboration.

A Partnership of Mutual Interest

As Thailand and the Netherlands enter their fifth century of diplomatic relations, the partnership continues to thrive in line with shared strategic interests. Collaboration now spans a wide range of sectors, reflecting a joint understanding that sustainable partnerships rely on diversification. Success in long-established areas such as water management has built a foundation of trust and confidence — enabling both nations to explore bold new frontiers in future-defining, high-technology sectors.

The coming years will determine whether policy commitments translate into functioning partnerships. The 420-year history of Thai–Dutch relations offers a solid foundation, yet the partnership’s future relevance will depend on what both nations choose to build together today. As Thailand and the Netherlands embark on this next chapter, they do so with a blend of ambition and realism — guided by the same mutual respect, trust, and practical cooperation that have sustained their friendship for over four centuries.

Panama and the Netherlands: From Maritime Heritage to Global Shipping Giants

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Panama and the Netherlands: From Maritime Heritage to Global Shipping Giants

By H.E. Ms. Sally Loo Hui, Ambassador of Panama to the Kingdom of the Netherlands

The Netherlands and Panama, though continents apart, share a profound connection to the sea, through the North Sea, the Caribbean, the Atlantic, and the Pacific. These waters have shaped their maritime cultures, defining a way of life and a vision for commerce.

The Netherlands was born from the sea, learning to coexist with it through dikes and canals, fostering a philosophy of balance between humans and nature. Panama stands as a global hub for business, finance, and logistics. Its position at the Isthmus has made it a vital crossroads for international trade, linking imports and exports across continents.

In maritime transport and industry, Panama offers world-class infrastructure. The Panama Canal, together with the world’s largest fleet of Panamanian-flagged vessels, ensures secure and efficient operations. Investors in logistics and transport find in Panama a platform that connects global markets and supports growth.

Panama also offers an enviable quality of life, with a safe, multicultural environment ideal for professionals and their families. Investing in Panama means leveraging a strategic location, a favourable business climate, and a lifestyle that balances work and well-being.

The Multinational Headquarters Law provides fiscal, labour, and immigration incentives for companies establishing regional operations, including tax exemptions and streamlined hiring of foreign staff. Panama also hosts free trade zones and special economic areas, such as the Colón Free Zone, which grant significant tariff and logistical advantages.

Documentacion del transito del Buque Chemtals Cancale por las esclusas de Miraflores, Canal de Panama. © Autoridad del Canal de Panamá. USO DE FOTOS / Material de Vídeo / Términos y Condiciones: Cualquier uso de material visual del Canal de Panamá debe estar debidamente acreditado / mencionó como “Cortesía de la Autoridad del Canal de Panamá.” El material de archivo o fotografías sólo podrán ser utilizados para el fin solicitado y / o programas / content / relacionada con el Canal de Panamá. Este material no puede ser vendido / transferido a terceros. © Autoridad del Canal de Panamá. USE OF PHOTO / VIDEO MATERIAL / TERMS & CONDITIONS: Any use of Panama Canal’s visual material must be properly credited / mentioned as “Courtesy of the Panama Canal Authority”. The footage or photographs may only be used for the purpose requested and / or programs / content / related to the Panama Canal.  This material may not be sold / transferred to third parties.

Panama’s flag represents over 15% of the global merchant fleet, reflecting a maritime tradition rooted in compliance with international standards such as Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL), the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS), and the International Labour Organization Maritime Labour Convention. The national ship registry applies strict due diligence, ensuring vessels or owners linked to sanctioned entities are excluded. Panama remains committed to maritime safety, security, and the rule of law.

The Panama Canal connects more than 140 maritime routes and 170 countries, demonstrating the nation’s dedication to neutrality and free transit. The Panama Maritime Authority promotes high standards to protect both vessels and seafarers, the silent workforce sustaining global trade.

Panama and the Netherlands have turned maritime geography into identity and opportunity. A shared “blue bridge” links them, carrying commercial visions and stories across oceans.

H.E. Ms. Sally Loo Hui, Ambassador of Panama.

Bilateral agreements reflect this maritime vocation. They include the 1997 treaty in The Hague to avoid double taxation for international shipping and aviation companies; the 2000 treaty on Promotion and Reciprocal Protection of Investments, effective since 2001; the 2004 social security coordination law allowing nationals to transfer benefits; and the 2010 agreement on double taxation and tax evasion.

Trade between the two countries is dynamic. Panama exports bananas, frozen shrimp, pharmaceuticals, teak, scrap metal, and palm oil to the Netherlands, while the Netherlands supplies electrical equipment, industrial machinery, specialized vehicles, and logistics technology.

Panama maintains a stable financial environment, with transparent banking laws, competitive taxation, and an ecosystem connecting Latin America to global markets. Through its embassies in Europe, Panama has worked with national authorities to share progress in strengthening financial transparency and compliance, efforts that culminated this year in Panama’s removal from the EU list of high-risk third countries for money laundering and terrorist financing, which underscores its commitment to international cooperation and good governance.

Academic collaboration continues to grow. The Technological University of Panama (UTP) partners with Dutch institutions, including the “Holland House – UTP Master Class,” where Dutch executives teach specialized courses. Panamanian students and professors also benefit from scholarships and exchange programs in the Netherlands, fostering a two-way flow of knowledge and innovation. The partnership extends to science: last year, INDICASAT and the University of Groningen signed a MoU for joint research on tuberculosis, an initiative already showing results, contributing to a projected decline in cases in Panama this year.

Panama invites Dutch investors to view the country not merely as a commercial partner but as a home for sustainable investment, offering a strategic location, a favourable business climate, and strong government support for foreign capital. Together, Panama and the Netherlands can continue building a future of shared prosperity, where every investment is a seed on fertile ground and every success a joint achievement.

Saudi Arabia’s 95th National Day Celebrated in The Hague

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Saudi Arabia’s 95th National Day Celebrated in The Hague

On 23 September, His Highness Prince Jalawi bin Turki Al Saud hosted an elegant reception to celebrate the 95th National Day of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, attended by members of the Dutch government, ambassadors from around the world, members of the diplomatic corps, heads of international organizations, distinguished members of society, Saudi nationals, and friends of Saudi Arabia, as well as leaders from the cultural, artistic, business, and scientific sectors.

Traditional Saudi hospitality was evident at every stage of the evening, creating a warm and gracious atmosphere that reflected the Kingdom’s rich heritage.

In his address, His Highness Prince Jalawi bin Turki Al Saud welcomed the guests and emphasized the ongoing journey of unity and development that began with the unification of the Kingdom by the late King Abdulaziz Al Saud. He highlighted the nation’s continued progress under the leadership of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, and His Royal Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

His Highness noted that the National Day serves as a time to renew loyalty, pride, and belonging, reaffirming commitment to national development and global engagement under wise leadership. He emphasized the Kingdom’s far-reaching transformation driven by Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the economy, empower citizens, and promote sustainable development.

Some ambassadors and heads of International Organizations at Saudi Arabia National Day 2025.

The Prince also highlighted the historic and growing bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands, dating back to 1872 with the opening of the Dutch consulate in Jeddah and the establishment of formal diplomatic relations in 1930. Today, cooperation spans key sectors including economy, culture, energy, education, technology, innovation, and food security.

At the international level, His Highness reaffirmed the Kingdom’s commitment to global peace and stability. He referred to the High-Level International Conference hosted by Saudi Arabia in July 2025 in partnership with France, which led to the New York Declaration—calling for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital. The declaration was endorsed by 142 UN member states.

His Highness reiterated Saudi Arabia’s firm stance against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, citing its active role in the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), and its steadfast support for international law and the peaceful resolution of disputes through institutions such as the International Court of Justice.

Saudis attending the 95 Anniversary of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s reception in The Hague.

He also underscored the Kingdom’s transformation under Vision 2030, highlighting efforts to empower youth and women and to invest in technology and innovation. Initiatives such as the creation of the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority (SDAIA) and the hosting of the Global AI Summit demonstrate Saudi Arabia’s leadership in the digital economy.

In the fields of energy and environment, His Highness noted Saudi Arabia’s pioneering role through OPEC and major sustainability programs such as the Saudi Green Initiative and the Middle East Green Initiative. These efforts aim to reduce carbon emissions by 278 million tons annually by 2030, achieve net zero by 2060, and generate 50% of the Kingdom’s electricity from clean energy sources by 2030.

Following His Highness’s remarks, guests engaged in warm conversation while enjoying a lavish dinner showcasing the variety and richness of Saudi gastronomy—a vibrant blend of Bedouin roots, Middle Eastern influence, and regional flavors that delighted every palate.

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