The Suez Canal Incident

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The Suez Canal Incident

Lessons learned for the geopolitics of critical infrastructures

Corneliu PIvariu. Photography by Ionus Paraschiv

By Corneliu Pivariu.

The maritime/river transports represent the most important segment of the world total transports as they cover, according to latest data, 89.6% in volume terms and 70.1% in value terms of the global total. Moreover, they have the advantage of not only being cheaper but also of being less polluting per freight tonne as compared to all the other transport modalities.

Within this business, an important role is played by the mandatory passage points represented (from east to west) by: the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab-el-Mandeb, the Suez Canal, Bosphorus, Gibraltar, the Panama Canal to which we could add the Cape of Good Hope.

The recent incident of March 23rd, represented by the blockage of the Suez Canal brought again to the international attention the issue of the safety of the maritime transports especially at the mandatory passage points.

The potential threats for the safety of transitting the Suez Canal are often emphasized as  results of the materialization of certain adverse scenarios. Most often ā€playedā€ scenarios refer to terrorist attacks which could provoke major disruptions in various fields, especially economic.

The indigenous incidents (threats) are not as ā€attractiveā€ for the public opinion. Although their occurence is more likely, such accidents are much less analyzed as far as implications are concerned.

Geoeconomic safety aspects:

The Suez Canal in a nutshell:

  • 12% of the global trade
  •  One million barrels of oil/day
  •  8% of daily trade of Liquefied Natural Gas
  •  Daily incomes of 14 ā€“ 15 million $ (5.7billion $ in 2019/2020). Before the       pandemic, the Suez Canal transit represented 2% of Egyptā€™s GDP.
  • 19.000 ships transited it in 2019 (more than 50 ships/day)
  •  The recent incident provoked an agglomeration of more than 360 ships until the Canal returned back to transit, and the value of the blocked freight was estimated to be over 10 billion $.

The German insurance company Allianz estimated that the blockage of the Suez Canal could diminish the yearly global growth by 0.2 ā€“ 0.4%.

The Wall Street Journal emphasized that as a result of the EverGiven incident, the cost of freight for the transportation ships between Asia and the Middle East increased by 47% mainly due to attempts of rerouting the ships in order to avoid the Suez Canal (i.e. adding around 8 navigation days).

Yet the temporary blockage of the Suez Canal affected not only the global maritime industry or the Egyptian economy but also innumerable other companies (corporate and retail endusers of transport services). Besides, the quality reports of the shiped goods have to be issued before the merchandises reach the endusers (which are not a few having in mind the more than 18,000 containers aboard the blocked ship as well as the other transcontainers on the ships (transcontainers represent 28% of the Suez canal transit).

It is likely that, having in mind the financial losses, the feasability studies for commissioning the north route of maritime transports be speeded up, although some experts say that is not feasable and the Russion action of opening up the ice shelf with three submarines is more of a propaganda campaign than of an affordable possible solution.

The maritime containers shipment as part of the logistic global chains could add up to the already chaotic situation following the disruptions generated by the pandemic.

  1. Physical safety aspects

At the time of the impact between the EverGiven transcontainer ship and the shore of the Canal, the wind speed was approximately 40 knots/hour. It is possible that human piloting errors (?) or objective technical considerations be added to the unfavourable weather conditions.

The Suez Canal Authority mentioned that this would have not (!) been the only reason for which the ship remained blocked.

Many analysts of the incident (most of them experts in dealing with the the risks attached to maritime transport strategic infrastructures) consider the need of a serious investigation leading to clear, worth trusting  conclusions concerning the causes of the event.

Credible sources maintain that the Suez is known as ā€the Marlboro Countryā€ and suggest that presents are being given to the piloting people.

The Canal is vulnerable to possible obstructions caused by transiting ships especially in some sectors such as:

– The sector between Ras El Ish and El Ballah area in Port Said

– The containers terminal area

– The Port Tewfik area

The Canal is relatively vulnerable to terrorist actions in ā€the Suez Canalā€ Bridge area, known as the Egyptian-Japanese Friendship Bridge or in El Ferdan Railway Bridge but also in the waiting areas on the Timsah Lake and on the Great Bitter Lake.

  • Aspects of military and operative-intelligence security

The Suez Canal is one of the strongest defended strategical objectives in the world as part of the critical global transportation infrastructure. Few security events were witnessed so far (the most important were recorded in 2005 and 2009) which were quickly solved.

The 3rd Egyptian Army and the security services have as main missions securing the vesselsā€™ safe passage of the 193 km long, 205 m wide and 24 m deep Canal and are controlling the vulnerabilities liable to be exploited by hostile forces.

The combination of the integrated high-technology equipment (Radars, VTMS and CCTV) and the combination army-intelligence and security services secure an appropriate protection of the objective.

The greatest security challenge comes from vessels transiting the Canal:

  • The blockage of the Canal in areas where there are hard rock (and not sand) shores following incidents similar to EverGiven one;
  • Detonating IEDs aboard the ships in transit.

The risk level generated by such a threat is equal for all vessels yet the resulted effect differs from ship to ship depending on factors such as the type of ship, the king of goods or even the ownerā€™s nationality.

It is likely that the naval forces of the main states interested in streamlining the traffic through the Suez Canal in emergency situations to operationalise rapid interventions subunits in such crisis circumstances with effective intervention equipment for big ships (over 300,000 dwt) too.

Admiral (ret) and ex-SACEUR James Stavridisā€™ controversial idea of setting up an international body for security management of the straits and navigation channels starts to make sense.

It makes sense too, that the intelligence and security services have and will have a bigger responsibility in the future as a result of the fact that the EverGiven giant ship is owned by a Japanese company, operated by a Taiwanese maritime shipping company and managed by a German company registered in Panama. And for everything being ā€easier to be managedā€, all the 25 members of the crew are Indian nationals.

Setting up alternative routes (in the 1960s the US submitted the idea of launching construction of another canal as alternative to Suez) and Turkey is to start constructing in 2021 the Istanbul Canal. In our opinion, these are solutions, albeit incomplete ones.

As it is the case in all sectors, a greater concern for raising the education level could be a good solution which, unfortunately, requires a longer period of time.

At the same time a solution must also be found for safer operation in an infrastructure – sometimes from the middle of the 19th century, whit the ships of the 21st century.

Presentation at the virtual international debate whit the same title, organized by Financial Intelligence Romania on March 31st 2021. www.financialintelligence.ro

Full event on: 

THE SUEZ CANAL INCIDENT by Financial Intelligence (eveniment integral) – Virtual Debate – YouTube

Ā Facebook link: https://www.facebook.com/watch/224771488371834/254410213071672

About the author:

Corneliu Pivariu-, Ingepo Consulting. Photographer Ionus Paraschiv

Corneliu Pivariu Military Intelligence and International Relations Senior Expert

A highly decorated retired two-star general of the Romanian army, during two decades he has led one of the most influential magazines on geopolitics and international relations in Eastern Europe, the bilingual journal Geostrategic Pulse.

Medici Bank launches for new technologies

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Medici Bank launches for new technologies

Lorenzo deā€™ MediciĀ di Ottajano, adescendant of the cĆ©lĆØbre banking dynasty, andĀ Ed Boyle, formerĀ Fidor Bank,Ā Managing Director for the Americas, have set upĀ Medici Bank, a digital bank focused on the needs of todayā€™s international online customers.

The founders combine years of experience managing both traditional, and digital assets to lead a team specialised in advanced banking technologies for digital-centric commerce and investing.

The fully-licensed, U.S. chartered bank, headquartered in Puerto Rico, has developed convenient, transparent, and easy-to-use services for customers that need a fast, secure banking option.

An expert in wealth management and alternative investment strategies, deā€™ Medici manages his familyā€™s portfolio and shared ownership in a number of European banks. Recent technological advancements in financial services, such as blockchain orĀ Bitcoinup.io, have now motivated him to step into an operational capacity at Medici Bank, where he leads business development and builds strategic partnerships.

Director Lorenzo deā€™ Medici holds an MBA from the University of Bologna. CEO Ed Boyleā€™s background spans more than 20 years of leadership roles at banking and payments companies including Managing Director of Americas at Fidor Bank, Vice President and General Manager at American Express, and CEO of Blade Payments. Boyle holds an MBA from New York University Stern School of Business.

For further information 
http://medicibank.info

A Lock-down Ambassador

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A Lock-down Ambassador

By H.E. Ms Dubravka Plejic Markovic, Ambassador of the Republic of Croatia to the Kingdom of the Netherland.

Back in October 2019, at the beginning of my new posting in The Hague, my and most of my colleaguesā€™ professional lives and careers seemed to be structured and guided by a certain degree of predictability, planning and application. It all revolved around contacts and human interaction. All of this was destined soon to see dramatic changes.

Coming from the multilateral hub in Vienna, I was anticipating The Hague mandate not to be much different from the one my predecessors effectuated, being about bilateral issues and multilateral negotiations. I was eager to meet new colleagues and to embark to discover this famous Dutch tolerance and openness which is attracting so many young Croats who come to study here. Not to mention great number of Croats who have settled permanently in the Netherlands and who, with their skills and application of hard work, became inseparable part of this successful society.

In my mind, I dearly held memories of exhibition from 1990 commemorating centennial of Van Goghā€™s death. Not only I was impressed by his masterpieces; tranquility and civility of life in the Netherlands and stillness of the canal waters in Amsterdam resonated hugely for someone who grew up on banks of the Danube River. Coincidently, geopolitics played its hand here as well. That was a year which was about to bring profound changes in Europe and upheavals were palpable everywhere. As a young person from a communist country who was yet to witness the war and aggression, I saw these dramatic emotions emanating from Van Goghā€™s panels as a harbinger of my own uncertain future.    

Almost three decades later, back in the Netherlands, my mind was overtaken by enormity of the task of representing the country which Dutch people know so well from holidaying and doing business and which begins with presenting credentials to His Majesty, the King. I ended up enormously liking the easygoing manner of the ceremony and will remember it forever: its rites, golden carriage procession, understated manner in portraying societal richness and one owns tradition while keeping up with modernity.  

As Croatia was about to assume the EU Presidency and with 2020 quickly approaching, my task of drafting local protocols and implementing national plans for the first ever Croatian Presidency kept me busy. There was not much time left for usual diplomatic courtesies, I had to quickly take over the role that some of my EU colleagues have already carried out so efficiently.  I was settling into my new role hastily thinking of exciting times ahead.

In January 2020, with my small team in the Embassy, I embarked on a journey that would, I hoped, see Croatia, EU and the Netherlands as close partners in making Europe stronger in a challenging world. About that time compounding stories of mysterious illness and terrifying pictures of virus stricken hospitals started to creep in. I can now clearly point out to a moment when I awkwardly stopped shaking hands at official gatherings and still remember uneasiness of physical proximity at meetings, all of which was contrary to my intrinsic multilateral attitude.  

Then my work in The Hague was further impacted by the devastating earthquake in Zagreb of such a magnitude that was not registered for in one hundred and forty years. This nightmarish scenario of having both global pandemics and disastrous tragedy meant applying great deal of flexibility in searching for new solutions to continue with work. Soon emergency crisis mood settled in the Embassy further needed for repatriation efforts. The times were calling for coordination, solidarity and innovation.

Adaptation as well. The physical meetings had to be substituted by new operating platforms and we discovered VTCs, Webinars, ZOOM and other platforms while learning how to navigate through them. Laptop screens and online meetings conducted from isolations of our homes turned out to be regular way of communication for a longer than expected with smart phones and facetiming replacing meeting boards.  In the meantime, fragmented social life in The Hague continued, with colleagues leaving and coming, while we were bidding virtual farewells to them. Sometimes months passed without knowing who the newcomers are.

Discovering virtues of virtual diplomacy meant also learning that technology has its limits and its own, less rational way of functioning.  I learned that painfully during some stressful moments while being unable to join meetings that I was supposed to host. That made me realize how vulnerable at the hands of technology we might become and how critical it is that with seemingly limitless abilities of our minds we do not forget who we are. However great technological perspective for the 21 century might seem to be, I see diplomacy based on social interaction and people-to-people contact at the core of our profession and truly hope that it will survive and raise above all these exceptional challenges.  

US Government ending sanctions against ICC

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US Government ending sanctions against ICC

The ICC welcomes the decision by the US Government ending sanctions and visa restrictions against ICC personnel

The International Criminal Court welcomes the decision by the US Government to revoke Executive Order 13928, ending sanctions against the ICC Prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, and a senior staff member of her office, Phakiso Mochochoko, as well as visa restrictions on certain ICC personnel.

The Court is mindful that the United States has traditionally made important contributions to the cause of international criminal justice. The Court stands ready to reengage with the US in the continuation of that tradition based on mutual respect and constructive engagement.

In the fulfilment of its independent and impartial judicial mandate, the Court acts strictly within the confines of the Rome Statute, as a Court of last resort, in a manner complementary to national jurisdictions. The Court relies on the support and cooperation of its States Parties, representing all regions of the world, and of the international community more broadly.

From the Black Sea to the North Sea

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From the Black Sea to the North Sea

By H.E. Mr. Lucian Fătu, Ambassador of Romania to the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

This March 27, one of the economic headlines in Romania, The Netherlands and Australia referred to the Nuyina icebreaker starting a trial voyage in the North Sea before being delivered to serve in the Antarctics.  The 160 meters long state-of-the-art research vessel was commissioned by the Australian Government and built by Damen Naval Romania in the Galați shipyard over a period of three years.  This is only the most recent token of the Romanian-Dutch investment and economic cooperation, and it highlights The Netherlandsā€™ position as the strongest foreign investor in the Romanian economy by capital residence, with almost 10 billions Euro.

However, it is not by chronological order of events that I open my comments with the economic pillar of the Romanian-Dutch relations.  Their strength articulates and, in turn, is made possible by a profound convergence of values and aspirations that the two countries share at bilateral, European and international levels.  As European Union members, NATO allies and partners in regional and multilateral organizations, Romania and The Netherlands build their cooperation on a diplomatic dialogue that celebrated its 140th anniversary one year ago.

We cooperate closely on a number of important issues such as global politics, security (including cyber), trans-border crime, trade and agriculture. We coordinate our positions on the European agenda items such as the future of our continent. We are exploring better options on issues such as the EU neighborhood, climate changes or migration. The current corona crisis and the struggle to ensure a fair and far-reaching vaccine distribution at national, EU and global levels pose one of the greatest challenges, and opportunities as well, to our authorities and to the global multilateral system.  We are working together towards the most appropriate EU response to this test.

Working in The Hague, every diplomat has the unique opportunity to experience the vibrant multilateral organizations and NGO activity and to showcase their countriesā€™ positions and goals.  Romanians have ample opportunities to do so, based on a set of values and principles we strongly believe in and have shaped our history.

My country remains committed to all efforts aimedat reinforcing the rule of law and supporting the delivery of justice.  As such, we closey follow the development of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) jurisprudence. Acquiring constructive international relations requires adherence to the principle of peaceful settlement of disputes. We thus express our hope that more countries will follow in the practice of accepting the ICJā€™s compulsory jurisdiction. Romania did so in 2015. Additionally, the ever-changing landscape of international relations calls for more practitioners of international law. In this spririt, we are happy to have been one of the main supporters of the establishment of a Trust Fund for the Judicial Fellowship of the ICJ, a mechanism for sponsoring young candidates from developing countries to access the ICJ Traineeship.

As we know, the International Criminal Court (ICC) lies at the heart of international efforts aimed at fighting impunity. We acknowledge the important role of the ICC in this regard, and firmly support it in achieving its mandate.  The adoption last December of the Resolution on the review of the ICC and the Rome Statute system is of great international significance. As current members of the Bureau, we are honoured to be directly involved in all aspects concerning not only such review, but the overall activity of the Assembly of States Parties.

Another multilateral level where Romania is active in The Hague is the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), whose aim is the implementation of the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. The Convention came into force on April 29th, 1997, and Romania was one of the 65 original signatories. All of Romaniaā€™s actions at this level reconfirm our commitment to actively contributing to multilateral diplomacy in the service of world peace.  Currently, Romania holds one of the vice-president seats at the 25th session of the OPCW Conference of the States Parties to take place between 20 and 22 April this year.

In the end of the day, it is all about people.  Romanians living in The Netherlands are a well adjusted and well respected community.  As a symbol of integrated culture and identity, a tulip named after Romanian Princess Maria BrĆ¢ncoveanu was created in 2018 in Groningen, and can be admired in the garden of the Romanian Orthodox Church in Schiedam. 

Ambassador H.E. Mr. Lucian FaĢ†tu photography by Kim Vermaat.

Enhancing Understanding and Strengthening Partnership

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Enhancing Understanding and Strengthening Partnership

By H.E. Mr. Jian Tan, Ambassador of the Peopleā€™s Republic of China to the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

It is a great honour as well as heavy responsibility for me to serve as ambassador of China to the Netherlands.

In my more than three decades of service in foreign affairs, I spent most of the years in multilateral development field. I worked in Geneva and New York. Yet my first posting was bilateral, in Indonesia. My previous one was ambassador to Ethiopia, the roof of Africa. So, I flowed from the highland to the lowland — the Netherlands.

Since my arrival on the Christmas day of 25th December last year, I have reached out to the government, business and academia in the Netherlands. I am quite impressed by the perseverance and openness of the Dutch people. With perseverance, they have turned the lowland into beautiful homeland; with openness, they are the driving force for multilateralism and free trade.  

Although situated on the opposite side of the Eurasia continent, our two peoples share many similarities, and the two countries have been building the ā€œOpen and Pragmatic Partnership of Comprehensive Cooperationā€. There are many bright spots of this partnership and cooperation.

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, leaders from China and the Netherlands have been in close contact through telephone conversations and exchanges of letters. The two governments have worked together in establishing a special cargo air bridge to ensure essential medical supplies to the Netherlands, maintaining a stable industrial and supply chain, and promoting economic recovery.

Climate change is an important area of our close cooperation. In 2019, the Global Center on Adaption based in the Netherlands set its first overseas office in China. In January 2021, Chinaā€™s Vice Premier Mr. Han Zheng virtually attended the Climate Adaption Summit held in the Netherlands. China has set the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. The job is hard, but our commitment is firm. The Netherlands has been a champion on sustainable development and our cooperation could make a difference in combating climate change.

Both countries support multilateralism. The Netherlands is a role model in international development cooperation. China is for North-South, South-South and Tripartite Cooperation. The two countries maintain consultations on major international and regional issues within the frameworks of the UN, G20, WTO and WHO. There are also practical exchanges and cooperation like on Mali peacekeeping and Somali anti-piracy operations. Together, China and the Netherlands could make important contribution to the international system with the UN as its core, the international order with international law as its basis, the multilateral trading system with the WTO as its corner stone.

Our bilateral trade last year, against all odds, grew by 7.8% to a historical high of 91.8 billion dollars, and Dutch export to China expanded by 14.2%. Our mutual direct investment is also larger than other EU countries. This extraordinary performance during the pandemic is a testament to the resilience and the potential of our economic relations. The sky is the limit. Last year, China was the only major economy registering a positive growth, and became the largest trading partner of the EU. This year it is projected to grow by more than 6%. More importantly, Chinaā€™s reform and opening up will only be further deepened and widened.

While being optimistic, I am very sober-minded about the challenges ahead.

Both China and the Netherlands commit to protect human rights, though our approach may not be the same given the level of development. While acknowledging peopleā€™s political and civil rights, China attaches great importance to the right to development and peopleā€™s well being.

We prioritize the improvement of peopleā€™s living standard. Over the past four decades and more, China has lifted over 800 million people out of poverty, including about 100 million in the past 8 years. China has completed, 10 years in advance, the goal of poverty reduction set in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This is a historical achievement for China and for humanity.

We prioritize the protection of peopleā€™s life. Faced with the sudden onslaught of Covid-19, the government took quick decision to lockdown Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people; and Hubei, a province of about 60 million people. There was no hesitation in weighing the health and the economy. Life first.

Recently there have been intensive exchanges on issues related to Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Please allow me to touch each briefly.

The Constitution of the Peopleā€™s Republic of China stipulates the protection of human rights, the protection of the spoken and written languages and the preservation of traditions and customs of all ethnic groups, the prohibition on discrimination against and oppression of any ethnic group.

Over the past two decades and more, Xinjiang was plagued by terrorism and violence. Thousands of terrorist attacks have caused huge casualties and property losses. Terrorism is the common enemy to the world. The UN Action Plan to Prevent Violent Extremism points out that, poverty, unemployment, lack of education, and distortion of religious belief, among others, are causes for violence and extremism. We therefore have taken measures to address the root causes by providing education and training to those affected, help them get jobs and stay away from violence and religious extremism.

Since 2014, over 3 million people in Xinjiang have been lifted out of poverty. The Uyghur population in Xinjiang increased by 25 percent between 2010 and 2018, and doubled over the past 40 years. China is firmly against forced labour. Besides, given the quality and quantity of Chinese labour force, it just makes no sense, politically or economically, to use forced labour.

Hong Kong has enjoyed a high degree of administrative, legislative and economic autonomy since its return to China in 1997. The implementation of “one country, two systems” is a big success. Still, with the lapse of 24 years after the handover, itā€™s time to take stock and improve. This is especially necessary given that over the past years, the anti-China radicals in Hong Kong committed vandalism, robbery and arson. They attempted to paralyze the Legislative Council, the government, and the airport, and went so far as to call for independence.

Riots are riots, be it in Hong Kong or other places. Those moves have crossed the bottom line of “one country, two systems”. The decision of the National Peopleā€™s Congress of China to improve Hong Kongā€™s electoral system and uphold the principle of ā€œpatriots governing Hong Kongā€ are in line with the Constitution and the Basic Law of HKSAR as well as the established international practices. It is a common sense that a countryā€™s citizens and public servants in particular should love their country and observe the Constitution. ā€œPatriotsā€ covers a wide scope and will not drive out diversity. For sure, Hong Kongā€™s tomorrow will be much better.

The year 2021 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Under its leadership, China has realized the task of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and will embark on a new journey toward fully building a modern socialist country. In its newly unveiled 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), China aims to foster a new development paradigm for high quality growth. China is focusing on achieving its development goal, including that of the climate change. China is getting more and more connected with the rest of the world, now being the major trading partner for over 120 countries and regions. In 2019, there were as many as 155 million outbound Chinese tourists. As the most populous country, China is becoming the largest consumption market in the world. Chinaā€™s development is a huge opportunity for other countries.

Recently, we have heard a lot of rhetoric about decoupling, isolation, containment, even a new cold war. It seems that China bashing has become a political correct in some countries. Our goal is to meet the growing aspiration of the Chinese people for a better life. To replace any other country is never our national strategy. We export goods, not political system. It is universally accepted that there is no one-size-fits-all development model and China will continue to develop in a way suited to its own national conditions. This is a diversified world. Countries may differ in civilization, culture, political system and level of development, but no one is to be excluded or isolated.

Developing countries have the right to develop, integrate into the global value chain, move up and have a place in high-tech. Of course they are required to play by the rules including respecting intellectual property rights. Alleging some hi-tech companies from China of spying without evidence is a far cry from free and fair competition. The unprecedented global challenges today require unprecedented cooperation. We aim to build a community of shared future for mankind. Climate change affects every country, virus respects no border. We are living in a global village, and share our fate in the same boat. International cooperation is the only way out.

Next year, China and the Netherlands will celebrate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of our ambassadorial diplomatic relationship. Our relations have withstood the changes in the international landscape over half a century. Our bilateral relationship is termed by our leaders as ā€œOpen and Pragmatic Partnership for Comprehensive Cooperationā€. We have shared interests, no fundamental interest conflict. As ambassador, I am committed to enhancing understanding and promoting partnership.

The Netherlands is a beautiful place, the Dutch are great people. So, while working hard, I will find time to explore the country, know the people and have a good time.

Of the North Stream 2 and Trans-Atlantic Esteem, too

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Of the North Stream 2 and Trans-Atlantic Esteem, too

On the historic date of March 08th ā€“ International Womenā€™s Day, a large number of international affairs specialists gathered for the second consecutive summit in Vienna, Austria. This leg of the Vienna Process titled: ā€œEurope ā€“ Future ā€“ Neighborhood at 75: Disruptions Recalibration Continuityā€. The conference, jointly organized by the Modern Diplomacy, IFIMES and their partners, with the support of the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna, was aimed at discussing the future of Europe and its neighbourhood in the wake of its old and new challenges.[1] 

Along with the two acting State Presidents, the event was endorsed by the keynote of theĀ EU Commissioner for European Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Excellency OlivĆ©r VĆ”rhelyi. One of the most anticipated talks was grouped around Panel III:Ā BREXIT AND FUTURE OF CROSS-ATLANTIC RELATIONS.

Senior researcher and geoeconomics specialist from Berlin, Matthias E. Leitner, elaborated on theĀ New Perspectives on Geopolitics and European Energy Transition, as follows:

I chose the topic of North Stream 2 since it is very timely: project completion coincides with the waning of the ā€œGolden Age of Gasā€. In a wider geo-political and geo-economic perspective, it is helpful to remind ourselves that current polarization surrounding the mega-project is not so helpful.Ā Are we having the right conversation about North Stream 2?

In fact, I propose that the huge challenges of European energy transition and digital transition require a wider perspective. The continentā€™s gas supply does not depend on Russia alone. Germanyā€™s opportunities from utilizing North Stream 2 in the diversification of the European energy mix are a case in point. For a few years now, the unquestioned ā€œwestern energy communityā€œ from the postwar era is replaced by more competitive relations between gas producers and consumers globally, including (but not limited to) the U.S. shale gas bonanza.

Looking at this new interplay of interests amidst global challenges such as climate change holds the clues for a new dialogue on energy security and sovereignty. This dialogue, I would like to argue, could be more democratic and oriented at shared challenges, instead of exclusionist political and commercial views.

Crispation of Positions around North Stream 2

Hardly any infrastructure project on the European continent has been more controversial than North Stream 2. Debate has intensified and created ā€œmore heat than lightā€ and I would not like to go into all the details here. There has been a flurry of reactions as the 1,230km long pipeline is about to be completed. It will double the Russian gas supply to Europe to 110 BCM.

The Project launched in 2015 became a convenient political punching ball in German domestic politics, between EU Member States especially in eastern Europe, and in the context of changing transatlantic relations. There is little shared understanding of the ā€œEnergy Sovereigntyā€ concept and aligning with the European Energy Union. Fears of Ukraine becoming more exposed to Russian strong-arming have aggravated these tensions.

North Stream 2 was placed under U.S. extraterritorial sanctions, which generated a flurry of reports and corporate/ government evasive actions.

EU Fundamentals and German Contributions

I would like to recall that the fundamentals for Europeā€™s global positioning industrial development between the U.S. and China lie beyond North Stream 2. The new EU Strategic Foresight Report of October 2020 focused on the EU dual transition (digital and green energy) and China as systemic rival. The EU is keenly aware of its need to secure critical raw materials for the new green economy.

Top EU officials are clear about using a three-tier approach against Russia, instead of blanket economic sanctions: push-back against violations of international human rights norms, robust response to cyberattacks/disinformation, while preserving a modus vivendi in areas of shared interest or ā€œlimited engagementā€ which includes energy supply flows. Responding to Russiaā€™s breach of legal certainty and procedures in the Navalny Case, the EU Council applied a new global sanctions regime against Human Rights violators for the first time in late February 2021. 

I would like to note that Germany can benefit from the larger Russian gas flows as a regional hub for distribution, minimizing transit risks and creating industrial synergies. Gas experts point to possible solutions which facilitate the phase-in of renewables. Germanyā€™s declared exit from coal and nuclear energy in 2022 is not far away. Therefore, gas provides a convenient substitute in the short run and offers ā€œcleanest in quantityā€. Nurturing mutual interdependence through ā€˜compartmentalizationā€™ in energy versus security policy has been Germanyā€™s underlying principle since the North Stream 1 Pipeline was opened.

Energy Transformation Challenges ā€“ Diversification of Southern Gas Routes

EU goals of climate adaptation under the Paris Agreement by 2030 (and reaching net zero emissions by 2050) will require a monumental restructuring in the energy sector. In any future energy mix, LNG imports are also an option.

Even a more modest post-Pandemic economic recovery in the EU compared to the U.S. might depend on reliable energy supply in the form of gas. Ultimately, lasting changes in emission levels depends on changing consumption patterns throughout the economy, requiring broad systematic education in consumer habits.

The EU also receives gas from Azerbaijan via the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and its three trunks via Anatolia in Turkey and through the Adriatic to Greece, Albania and on to Italy. Although these gas volumes are smaller (31 BCM annually), some 10 BCM of gas are destined to southern Europe. I would draw your attention to the fact that Azerbaijan is also both gas producer and operator like Gazprom in North Stream 2. European credit financing was made available for the SGC project.

Together with Turkeyā€™s ambition to become an ā€œEnergy Bridgeā€ between Asia and Europe, Russian and Central Asian gas is set to become a fixture in some southern European countries. However, other more complex gas schemes involving Turkmenistan (the worldā€™s largest holder of known gas reserves) and branch lines from Iranian gas fields have not materialized so far for a variety of reasons. 

Towards Pan-European Energy Community Dialogue

In the age of waning gas, a tendency to inter-link energy and political geostrategic and geoeconomics considerations has crowded out other approaches  among technocrats and energy experts. Energy links have become echo chambers of Cold War paradigms, often  without full understanding of new global developments. Conversely, far less attention has been given to transparency over mitigating the environmental costs, educating the end-users about the transition to a new economy.

Democratizing the discussion and establishing dialogue among labor unions and consumer associations, scientists and climate experts on gas supply, storage and conservation might be  possible. I would argue that this can provide confidence building as well as prevent instrumentalizing energy links in the short term. In a pan-European setting, the OSCE is well placed to intensify such dialogue. Under the OSCE approach of comprehensive security, this has been on the a in Vienna where we are speaking todaysince 2006.

People-to- people contacts in transboundary energy flows would help address misperceptions between major gas import and export countries. Additionally, relevant labor safety and employment standards in gas industries could be boosted in cooperation with UN Agencies such as ILO. I would like to conclude by mentioning that a common interest in upskilling the energy workforce in Europe and its neighborhood could benefit from such an initiative , which creates resilience to the huge challenges ahead in energy transition and digital transformation.      

Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 

Sources:

Dornfeldt, Matthias, Hoffen auf die SĆ¼dschiene. Internationale Politik (DGAP Berlin MƤrz-April 2018).

Felbermayr, Gabriel, Die Blockade von Nord Stream 2. Wirtschaftswoche (5 March 2021).

FĆ¼cks, Ralf, Die fossile GroƟmacht und der Klimawandel. Internationale Politik/ DGAP Berlin (March-April 2021).

Lo, Bobo, La Russie et le changement climatique: entre deni et adaptation. Notes de lā€™Ifri (Centre Russie/NEI Mars 2021).

OSCE Secretariat, Energy Security Brochure (OSCE-OCEEA Vienna 2017).

Schmidt- Felzmann, Anke, Instrument russischer  Geopolitik. Internationale Politik (DGAP Berlin MƤrz-April 2018).

Westphal, Kirsten, Strategic Sovereignty in Energy Affairs. SWP Commentary (January 2021).

About the Author:

Matthias E Leitner, Senior Adviser/ International Coordinator with ICSVE Center Washington, DC (USA), Berlin-based Matthias Ernst LEITNER has over 20 yearsā€™ experience in international peace and security, mainly in UN and regional peace operations across Africa and in the Middle East. His professional focus is on governance/ accountability, national dialogues and coalition building as well as on project development for preventing violent extremism and radicalization. Mr. Leitner has held senior management positions with UN Special Envoy Offices. His ongoing interest is in UN reforms, peacebuilding and innovative approaches for resilience to the C-19 pandemic. His academic background from Bonn and Oxford Universities is in languages and history.

Europe in the Netherlands

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Europe in the Netherlands

The Role of the Representation of the European Commission in the Netherlands

By H.E. Mr. Didier Herbert, Head of the Representation of the European Commission in the Netherlands.

The European Commission has Representations in the 27 countries of the European Union. The role of the Representation is to be the ‘ears, eyes and voiceā€™ of the European Commission in the Netherlands. What we do is listen, inform and report. The Embassies of the European member states in the Netherlands have similar tasks, among others, and with them, we naturally maintain narrow contacts through our regular meetings of the Heads of Missions of the EU Member states in The Netherlands.

The first aspect of our task consists in connecting with Dutch citizens and authorities at different levels on expectations and questions regarding European action. Secondly, we discuss and inform about European policy in general and important European policy topics that affect the Netherlands as a whole or Dutch regions and cities in particular. Last year, one of the main topics was about EU actions and cooperation in response to the coronavirus. Few people know how in the first months, when all borders were closed, we joined forces in the EU to bring back over a 100,000 citizens stranded outside the EU to their home country and created ā€œgreen lanesā€ through which lorries could bring Dutch vegetables to clients in neighbouring countries.

Our work also means dispelling misconceptions in some cases. Some time ago, the newspapers reported that the EU was planning to force cat owners to keep their pets on a leash, because cats were said to be dangerous for biodiversity and for the survival of birds. There was, of course, absolutely no intention to do that – apart from whether the proposition is correct whether cats are dangerous for the survival of certain bird species. So there we clearly indicated that the Commission did not intend to submit anything on that.

In addition to listening and informing locally, we provide country-specific knowledge, analysis and advice to the President and all Members of the Commission. So that they are able to consider these elements at an early stage. Just imagine if the discussions about a common European Recovery Programme could have led so quickly to such an ambitious result had the negotiators not been aware of the expectations and sensitivities in each European country.

How to involve Dutch citizens

We engage with citizens in several ways ā€“ we are active on social media, we organise trips and events, and we work together with our network of Europe Direct Information Centres throughout the country. Citizensā€™ dialogues and visits to various cities and provinces are also a fixed element of the Representation’s menu. In recent years, for example, the Commission and the Representation have organized a large number of citizensā€™ dialogues. A Commissioner, often Executive Vice-President Frans Timmermans, comes to visit one or multiple places in the Netherlands. For example, we went to Emmen, Breda, and Leiden to talk to citizens about European policy.

That gives you a good sense of what is going on in the Netherlands. I see it as part of my job to regularly visit various provinces and cities. Coming here in 2019, I intended to go to all the Dutch provinces; I still have that intention and I am planning to do so as soon as restrictions will ease. In The Hague, you only have one view of the Netherlands. As Brussels is not representative for Belgium, Paris not for France and Madrid not for Spain, I think it is essential to learn more about different aspects of the Dutch country and culture.

Our diversity is a plus in Europe. But explaining why and what we do together in the EU is equally important: in that vein, I want to draw your attention to the bi-lingual (Dutch and English) newsletter on the latest European policy developments, which we send out on Friday every week. People can register via this link.

H.E. Mr. Didier Herbert, Head of the Representation of the European Commission in the Netherlands.

What is next on the agenda for the Representation?

Due to the corona crisis, some of our priorities temporarily moved to the background ā€“ health was the main priority for all of us the last months ā€“ but we are now also changing our focus towards the recovery after the pandemic. But essential issues, such as global warming have not disappeared.

We managed to come to an unprecedented agreement on NextGenerationEU: based on the National Reform Plans that each country will draw up, this instrument should help to repair the economic and social damage caused by the pandemic. As well as catering for future challenges:Ā  this important Programme is to help ensuring a sustainable and inclusive recovery that promotes the green and digital transitions.

We furthermore look forward to the start of a vast exercise agreed on by all European countries, the European Parliament and the Commission. The aim is to reach out and engage with citizens in a wide-ranging debate on how they see and what they suggest for the future of the European cooperation project in the coming decade and beyond. We hope many Dutch people will participate and join this Conference on the Future of Europe.

About the author:

Didier Herbert,  started his career in business and law and went on to spend the vast majority of his career working for the European Commission in Brussels. After being Director for Internal Market & Competitiveness and Chairing the Regulatory Scrutiny Board of the European Commission, he is now serving as Head of the Representation of the European Commission in the Netherlands.

Media and risk: definition and perception

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Media and risk: definition and perception

By Anastasiia Pachina

Despite the attempts, that humanity is making to protect itself and predict possible options for the development of its future, despite the high costs of health care and safety, increase in life expectancy and constant improvement in all of these areas, our society remains risky. At the end of the 20th century, the sociologist Ulrich Beck already defined our society as risky (Beck, 1995). In the modern world, even inaction can bring its own risks.

Two approaches to defining risk

There are two main approaches to defining risk. The realist approach comprehends “risks” in scientific and technical terms. The premise of this approach is the possibility of calculating the risk and its consequences, where the risk is the result of the probability of occurrence of the hazard and the scale of its consequences (Bradbury, 1989). Risk is the product of probability and hazard. It is defined as an objective fact of the surrounding world, as a danger that is calculated independently of sociocultural processes.

The sociocultural approach determines risk as a socially constructed attribute that is dependent on processes within society. It implies that social perception and our values ā€‹ā€‹go hand in hand with the definition and evaluation of risk. Even objective indicators and risk assessments are accompanied by subjective judgments and opinions. Media as a subsystem of society also has some influence on the construction of risk.

Media and risk perception

With the advent and popularization of media, the speed of information dissemination has significantly increased. Accordingly, the transfer of information about risks is accelerated. News about a catastrophe in a certain country in a matter of hours and sometimes minutes spreads all over the world. Media not only accelerate but also bring information about possible risks closer to us. An incident that happened many kilometers away from us is already perceived as something real and very close to us. The amount of information also plays an important role. The more information the media provides, the stronger the effect it has on risk perception (Wahlberg, Sjoberg, 2000). The more news we receive about a particular problem, the more we perceive it as to be real and the more real the risk is.

On the other hand, the media does not cover all events. The media is a public arena, which has its own carrying capacity (Hilgartner, Bosk, 1988). Since public attention is a scarce resource, there are limitations to the issues that the media can cover. Problems constantly compete for attention. This dynamic process opens up new issues that require our attention, and allows us to forget about others for a while. The agenda is changing; events are replacing each other, which means that the danger of other risks and threats comes to the forefront.

I don’t think that a couple of years ago, many people would have imagined life during a pandemic. The threat of terrorist attacks, natural disasters or another economic crisis seemed more real. We can only wonder and try to predict what awaits us in the future, what risks await us and how quickly they spread around the world, including through the media.

References

Beck, U. (1995). Ecological Politics in an Age of Risk. London: Polity Press.

Bradbury, J. A. (1989). The policy implications of differing concepts of risk. Science, Technology, & Human Values, 14(4), 380-399.

Hilgartner, S., & Bosk, C. L. (1988). The rise and fall of social problems: A public arenas model. American journal of Sociology, 94(1), 53-78.

Wahlberg, A. A., & Sjoberg, L. (2000). Risk perception and the media.Ā Journal of risk research,Ā 3(1), 31-50.

About the author:

Anastasiia Pachina

Anastasiia PachinaĀ  is a Sociologist at Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic.

Things that bring you joy

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Things that bring you joy

By Alexandra Paucescu

ā€˜Take your dreams seriouslyā€˜ā€¦ ā€˜Make yourself proudā€™ā€¦ ā€˜Choose happyā€™ā€¦ these are just a few of the words that I usually see on her social media, sharing optimism on a daily basis.

ā€˜Everyone has a story to tellā€™ā€¦ indeed, letā€™s discover hers!

Olga Tapiola or ā€˜Madame EUā€™ as she is called in Bangkok, where she is currently living with her husband and stepson, is a complex and inspiring woman. She is originally from Ukraine but married a Finnish career diplomat who now represents the European Union in Thailand.  Turning into a ā€˜trailing spouseā€™ did not come easy. She could grasp the substance and representational parts as she initially studied international relations and political economy and worked as a policy expert for a number of years.

  • Olga Tapiola, photography by Sommart Puengjudoom

Her greatest passion of all is psychology, which she studied later on in life and practiced. ā€˜I am particularly fond of group psychology, especially my favourite method called psychodrama. It has a beautiful dynamics; I am fascinated about the way groups interact and work. I am curious about people and love to discover their stories. In Thailand, I had the chance to conduct groups for parents of children with developmental and behavioural special needs, as a volunteer for a local NGO. It gave me so much joy.ā€™

ā€˜The world is dark enough, there are so many challenges, it is only up to us to find the light in ourselves and othersā€™ she says, and then I remember another one of her beautiful Instagram quotes ā€˜The secret to life is knowing how to make the bad times good and the good times unforgettableā€™.

But life is not always as perfect as on Instagram ā€¦ she sometimes misses the greenery and the four seasons in Europe, she misses her extended family and people she called friends for many years and are now living thousands of miles away. She is no stranger to human pain and challenges through her therapy work.

  • Olga Tapiola by YSIS Co.

She tells me: ā€˜home is where I am now, in this moment, with my closest family. In order to succeed, a diplomatic couple needs to build a strong partnership between the spouses, with support going both ways. The second important thing is to have something which brings you joy, something that lights you up, while your diplomatic partner is going to the office. There is so much beauty in this world, so many fascinating people who are waiting to be discovered. One just needs good company and a supportive shoulder.ā€™

She also runs a support group for ambassadorsā€™ spouses in Bangkok. Although it was not intended as a therapy group, it offers safe space to the spouses to share their news and talk about challenges without being judged. It serves as a platform to discuss ideas and simply get support from likeminded friends. She says: ā€˜Being a diplomatic, and in particular an ambassadorā€™s spouse, is a great privilege and at the same time a big responsibility. More can be done to help spouses both enjoy their lives and be able to support their diplomatic partnersā€™. Her latest discussion paper, still unpublished, looks at the potential and challenges of ambassadorsā€™ spouses in the 21st century.

While being an ambassadorā€™s spouse often takes a large part of her time, COVID-19 lockdown allowed her to rediscover another old and forgotten passion: painting.

ā€˜Trust the magic of new beginningsā€™ā€¦

ā€˜I have taken painting classes for three years, back in Ukraine and had exhibited my work before, both in Kyiv and in Brussels. But during the lockdown, I was lucky to reconnect with my inner artist. I found a new routine which was very fulfillingā€™.

Her paintings are beautiful, full of colour and inspire the same optimism that she transmits through her words.

ā€˜Things That Bring You Joy – is the title of my space where I exhibited two subsequent collections of paintings in Bangkok. When asked to name this space, I remembered my fatherā€™s favourite phrase – ā€œWhatever you do, always do things that bring you joyā€. Indeed, I saw that many times in life: when you do what you like, and, if your heart is fulfilled, everything else follows. Being able to do so is a privilege that I really appreciate.ā€™

ā€˜The process of painting, colours, time spent in my studio – bring me infinite joy right now. I like to escape my diplomatic bubble and express myself in a different way.  My art is about happiness – happiness of small things, joy of small steps – that can help us overcome all the difficulties. I listen to my heart and paint out whatā€™s in it right now. Nature, feelings, moments, I get inspiration from everywhere.ā€™

Because of her, psychology and art met. Her wisdom and professional experience merged with her artistic inspiration and create beauty every day.

ā€˜Never give up on your dreamsā€™ she says. ā€˜Let joy be your heartā€™s nameā€™

_________________

Main picture Photography by Natalia Garbu.

About the author:

Alexandra Paucescu

Alexandra Paucescu- Author of “Just a Diplomatic Spouse” Romanian, management graduate with a Master in business, cultural diplomacy and international relations studies.

She speaks Romanian, English, French, German and Italian,  gives lectures on intercultural communication and is an active NGO volunteer.

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