New Ambassador of Bangladesh presents credentials

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New Ambassador of Bangladesh presents credentials

On 28 August 2024, the new Ambassador of Bangladesh to the Netherlands, H.E. Mr. Tareque Muhammad, presented his letter of Credence to His Majesty King Willem-Alexander of The Netherlands at a ceremony held at Noordeinde Palace in The Hague.

The Ambassador was accompanied by the Royal Chamberlain from the Chancery to the Palace in a traditional horse-drawn ceremonial carriage. Upon arrival at the palace, a contingent of the Royal Guard played the national anthem of Bangladesh, followed by an inspection of the guard. He was then received at the Palace by the Grand Master of the Royal Household.

Royal Palace, in The Hague during the inspection of the guard by H.E. Mr. Tareque Muhammad, Ambassador of Bngladesh.

His Majesty the King expressed his satisfaction at the extensive bilateral relations demonstrated in continuous and growing engagements between the two countries. He expressed hope that the interim government of Bangladesh will bring back normalcy rapidly and complete the transition through an election.

The King also highlighted that the Netherlands and Bangladesh had established synergistic relations by exchanging expertise and knowledge in the management of flood and post-flood rehabilitations.

The Bangladesh Ambassador emphasized the interim government’s priorities, which encompass establishing security and a stable environment, implementing crucial reforms, and ensuring the smooth organization of elections.

The ambassador of Bangladesh at the Royal Palace in The Hague.

Ambassador Tareque Muhammad expressed appreciation to the Kingdom of the Netherlands for their highly productive cooperation in socio-economic development. Additionally, he confidently highlighted the existing robust investment opportunities and the sound policies designed to foster and support a resilient private sector.

The King wished to strengthen bilateral relations across various fields, stressing his country’s readiness to provide all possible support.

Two culprits of the plight of the Palestinians, One was sucked into the quagmire, the other by design.

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Two culprits of the plight of the Palestinians, One was sucked into the quagmire, the other by design.

By John Dunkelgrün

Following the declaration of the State of Israel, roughly the same number of Jews were forced out of Arab countries as those of the Palestinian Arabs who fled or were expelled during the war that Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Libanon, and Saoudi Arabia started.

Whereas the Jewish refugees sought and found a future, mainly in Israel and The United States, the Palestinians had to move into camps in the surrounding countries. Leaving these camps was difficult, and obtaining a formal education or learning a trade outside was almost impossible. It resulted in dismal living conditions with no other hope than someday returning to their former homes.

To alleviate the refugees’ plight, the UN started a new aid organization, UNWRA, which provided food, medical care, and education. Its activities allowed the camps to exist within a bubble. The result was a growing and understandably resentful population of Palestinians. The ‘camps’ gradually became overcrowded villages.

Unlike refugees from anywhere else, the UN continued to regard the children, grandchildren, and further generations of these Palestinians as refugees and their villages as refugee camps. At the cost of untold millions of dollars from the international community,  these camps were allowed to continue. It is interesting to note that the contributions from Muslim states to UNWRA are minimal.

The intentions were good. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians had become victims of the actions of others. However, UNWRA had to operate in a repressive environment under mainly dictatorial regimes that had no interest in improving the lives of the Palestinians. On the contrary, they rather liked the PR effect of the camps. UNWRA had to do a balancing act. To be able to operate, it had to stay on good terms with the powers that be, and gradually, it identified with them and so became part of the problem. Situated among Palestinians for decades, getting to know them, being witness to their depravations, its operatives naturally started to see things from their side. Call it a variation of the Stockholm syndrome. Also, to operate, they had to hire local staff, some of whom were members of terrorist groups like Hamas, and all were under threat from these groups.

It would not have been necessary. Palestinian Arabs, who managed to get out, built flourishing communities elsewhere, mainly in Chile, the US, and Canada. Had the UN put pressure on or offered financial incentives to the neighboring countries to allow their normal development, there is no reason why they wouldn’t have grown into equally flourishing communities and integrated into their countries of residence. The lack of pressure from the UN, the identification of UNWRA personnel with the Palestinians, and their tacit cooperation with groups like Hamas caused the continuation of the miserable conditions of the Palestinians.

But it is worse, much worse. UNWRA, which has been deeply embedded in Palestinian areas, has closed its eyes to all terrorist activities. It has known for years what Hamas was doing. The amount of sand taken out to dig the tunnels alone was proof that there was a greater effort to prepare for war than toward building a city-state with a working economy. UNWRA knew that thousands of workers were working somewhere, somehow, underground. Its employees knew that Hamas built control centers in hospitals, schools, mosques, and private apartments. Why didn’t UNWRA cry out, put pressure on Hamas, or have the UN threaten to stop aid? UNWRA is a knowing and willing accomplice of Hamas and Hezbollah.

While UNWRA, for all its faults, has good intentions, the opposite is true of Iran.  The Iranian dictatorship, by contrast, didn’t and shouldn’t have any real quarrel with Israel. Its hostility from Day One of the dictatorship of the mullahs is entirely artificial. This theocracy needs outside enemies to ‘justify’ its cruel regime. It found fertile ground in the disgruntled and desperate Palestinian populations in the camps and Gaza. It funds, trains, and supplies them. Without aid from Iran, there would have been no rockets fired at Israel, no retaliations, and no attacks on terrorists hiding in protected areas like hospitals, schools, mosques, and homes. It has carefully fostered a circle of terrorist groups around Israel. In doing so, it has effectively destroyed Libanon as a viable state. It is entirely possible that it will encourage Hezbollah to make a full-scale attack on Israel, causing a response that makes the calamity in Gaza like a children’s birthday party. We should be quite clear about it: the blame for any devastation of Libanon, like that of Gaza, lies squarely on the leadership of Iran.

While the Iranian theocrats remain in power, there will be little chance of peace in the Middle East. But unless the UN gets firm with the terrorist groups, even the hope for peace will remain a mirage.

A New World of Changing Trading Landscape

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A New World of Changing Trading Landscape

By Chen Li

Just last month, the European Union recently decided to impose temporary tariffs on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China. Concurrently, the U.S. and Mexico jointly announced measures to bolster the North American steel and aluminum supply chain, with Mexico imposing tariffs of 25% and 10% on steel and aluminum imports from China, respectively.

In recent years, there has been a notable increase in trade barriers targeting Chinese goods. Reports from American media indicate that beyond the U.S. and EU, emerging economies such as Brazil, India, Mexico, and Indonesia have initiated anti-dumping investigations into competitively priced Chinese products.

These protectionist actions against China represent a long-term trend in global trade, driven by shifts in the international economic landscape. This transformation is both widespread and structural, impacting not only China’s relationships with the U.S. and EU but also influencing global trade dynamics overall. China must adapt to these evolving trade rules and prepare for sustained strategic competition.

The global trade environment has undergone significant changes. The momentum towards global economic integration that followed World War II has diminished, giving way to trends of de-globalization and regional economic integration. Since the financial crisis, developed countries have increasingly pursued the reshoring of manufacturing due to weakened consumer demand and advancements in technology, as well as efforts to mitigate supply chain risks. Simultaneously, countries like China have reduced their reliance on intermediate goods trade while upgrading their industries, contributing to a slowdown in global trade growth and a restructuring of global value chains. The trend of nearshoring marks a departure from previous models of international division of labor and underscores the rise of regional economic integration, inevitably fostering trade protectionism in the process.

This rise in trade protectionism has undermined the rules-based multilateral trading system established under economic globalization, including the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the WTO. Regional trade agreements are increasingly supplanting the WTO’s global rules, accelerating the fragmentation of trade and industrial spaces. Challenges to the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) principle within the WTO further complicate international trade dynamics, particularly concerning issues of market access, trade imbalances, and intellectual property protection. Moreover, economic and trade issues have become increasingly politicized, pushing the WTO to the sidelines of global economic governance and jeopardizing its trade rules.

In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has heightened awareness among countries of the need to diversify supply chain risks, further amplifying trends toward unilateralism and populism. Geopolitical considerations increasingly influence economic and trade policies, reinforcing alliances while potentially weakening economic ties beyond these groupings. Despite sustained efforts, negotiations under the Doha Round have faltered, and the WTO’s appellate body has remained paralyzed since December 2019.

The evolution of international trade rules has been a dynamic process since the Age of Exploration. Before significant maritime discoveries, global commerce operated on regional scales. Maritime trade interconnected the world, establishing a truly global trading system that reshaped international relations, disrupting ancient tribute systems and continental-centric perspectives. Following World War II, the establishment of GATT and later the WTO laid the foundation for a multilateral trading system based on mutual benefit. China’s accession to this framework facilitated deep integration into global value chains, enabling its economic rise through economic globalization and achieving remarkable economic growth.

Today, the global trade landscape is once again undergoing profound structural changes, necessitating new frameworks and disciplines within the evolving trade system, and under such circumstances, the world itself must in turn adapt strategically to navigate these shifts effectively.

About the author:

Chen Li, is an Economic Research Fellow at ANBOUND

Myanmar: Examining the Geopolitical Consequences of Persistent Turmoil

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Myanmar: Examining the Geopolitical Consequences of Persistent Turmoil

By Marco Pizzorno

Myanmar, a nation with a rich yet intricate history, is currently embroiled in a geopolitical crisis that poses significant challenges for its civilian population and regional stability. From the era of British colonialism to decades of military rule, the country has encountered numerous obstacles that shape its present condition.

The origins of Myanmar’s multifaceted challenges can be traced back to its colonial past. After achieving independence in 1948, the nation struggled with ethnic conflicts and political instability. The military coup in 1962, led by General Ne Win, initiated a prolonged period of authoritarian governance. Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate and pro-democracy advocate, poignantly remarked, “The only real prison is fear, and the only real freedom is freedom from fear.” Despite her efforts to foster democracy, the military’s hold on power has remained unyielding.

A critical turning point occurred on February 1, 2021, when the military overthrew the democratically elected government. This coup ignited widespread public protests and a harsh crackdown on dissent, resulting in a humanitarian crisis of alarming proportions. According to United Nations estimates, over 1.2 million individuals have been displaced internally, while thousands have fled to neighboring countries, exacerbating a regional refugee crisis that strains local infrastructures and resources.

The humanitarian impact on civilians has been catastrophic. Numerous reports from human rights organizations detail extensive abuses, including arbitrary arrests, torture, and extrajudicial killings, which have created a dire situation for the populace. The international community has responded with a combination of condemnation and targeted sanctions; however, these measures have yet to produce significant changes on the ground. UN Secretary-General António Guterres underscored the seriousness of the situation, stating, “The situation in Myanmar is a tragedy for the people of Myanmar, and it is a challenge for all of us” (United Nations, 2021).

The geopolitical ramifications of the crisis extend well beyond Myanmar’s borders. The roles of regional powers, particularly China and India, contribute additional layers of complexity. China has historically maintained a close alliance with the Myanmar military, viewing the nation as a crucial partner in its Belt and Road Initiative. Conversely, India is increasingly concerned about the potential for instability to spill over into its northeastern states, where various ethnic insurgencies persist.

Within the broader context of Southeast Asia, ASEAN faces challenges in formulating a unified response to the crisis. The bloc’s principles of non-interference and consensus decision-making can complicate efforts to address urgent humanitarian needs and promote political stability. This dynamic highlights the delicate balance ASEAN must navigate as it seeks to respond effectively to the evolving landscape in Myanmar.

As the situation continues to unfold, the prospects for a peaceful resolution remain uncertain. The ongoing conflict between the military and various ethnic armed groups, alongside the pro-democracy movement, presents a complex challenge that requires a nuanced approach. Nonetheless, the resilience of the Myanmar populace is noteworthy. Grassroots movements and civil disobedience campaigns persist, reflecting an enduring aspiration for democratic change.

In summary, the ongoing crisis in Myanmar serves as a poignant reminder of the fragility of democratic institutions and the persistent struggle for human rights. As the international community assesses the geopolitical implications of the situation, there remains hope that a path toward reconciliation and stability can emerge, driven by the unwavering determination of the Myanmar people.

References

1. United Nations. (2021). “Statement by the UN Secretary-General on Myanmar.” https://www.un.org/en/statement-by-the-un-secretary-general-on-myanmar

2. Human Rights Watch. (2021). “Myanmar: Events of 2020.” https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/country-chapters/myanmar

3. International Crisis Group. (2021). “Myanmar’s Post-Coup Crisis: The Role of Regional Powers.” https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/306-myanmars-post-coup-crisis-role-regional-powers

4. ASEAN. (2021). “ASEAN Chairman’s Statement on the Situation in Myanmar.” https://asean.org/asean-chairmans-statement-situation-myanmar

5. International Organization for Migration. (2021). “Displacement Tracking Matrix: Myanmar.” https://www.iom.int/displacement-tracking-matrix

ASSER Institute: Innovation and Impact

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ASSER Institute: Innovation and Impact

New managing director Kasper Vrolijk: “Many people I speak with are surprised to learn we accomplish so much with such relatively small team”

The Asser Institute’s new managing director, Kasper Vrolijk, speaks about his first six months at the institute. With a background in economics and a passion for global affairs, Vrolijk discusses the Asser Institute’s academic excellence, its role in society, and his plans for innovation. “My colleagues are fantastic, and truly dedicated to the Institute and our shared mission. What has surprised me the most, however, is the number and diversity of the stakeholders we are involved with.” An interview.

Can you tell us about your professional journey and what led you to the Asser Institute as managing director?

“My academic background is in Business Administration and Public Policy. An early role at the United Nations fostered a passion for international affairs and global trends. Seeking a deeper understanding of the underlying economic factors, I then pursued a PhD in Economics.

“Throughout my career, I’ve cultivated a keen interest in the intersection of science, policy, and public debate. This led me to the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), a research institute and think tank, where I focused on the transformation of economics and social systems. When I saw the Asser Institute vacancy, the opportunity to work at a globally renowned research institute was immediately appealing. But what truly sets the Asser Institute apart, however, is its exceptional commitment to knowledge dissemination and public engagement. The institute’s diverse valorisation initiatives, from educating professionals to engaging in teaching, and holding documentary screenings and public lectures, demonstrates to me a profound dedication to knowledge sharing and societal impact.”

How does your non-legal background and your PhD in Economics influence your approach to your current role?

“My background in human development and my specialisation in development economics actually connects quite closely with the Asser Institute’s research themes on important global topics such as human rights and artificial intelligence. My background in Economics has further taught me to view things empirically, and to envision different scenarios, which is particularly useful for managing an organisation and thinking about its long-term financial strategy. I intend to leverage my evidence-based approach by ensuring that our activities reflect the Asser Institute’s mission while keeping an eye at the numbers to see what we are achieving and how that fits with our multi-year strategy.”

Can you tell us a bit more about your primary responsibilities? “As the Institute’s managing director, and member of the executive board, my main responsibilities are the Institute’s finance, administration and personnel. In my day-to-day routine, I run the Institute together with my colleague Christophe Paulussen, my fellow board member and the acting academic director. Together, we focus on managing our core asset, which is of course our excellent researchers and support staff, and we also think strategically about the Asser Institute’s future for the coming years, thereby following our mission and vision.”

Developing and implementing a funding acquisition strategy is a significant part of your role. What are some challenges that you face in this and how do you overcome them?

“The Asser Institute’s research portfolio and knowledge base is extremely diverse, so we receive funding from many different sources. We have exceptional research projects that are, for instance, being funded by the Dutch Research Council NWO and the European Union, as well as smaller projects that are funded by The Hague Municipality and Nuffic, the Dutch organisation for the internationalisation of education. This is very exciting and unique, but also brings some challenges when it comes to acquiring and managing projects. Working with many different funders and having a high diversity of projects means that we continually have to find a good balance between the partners we have and projects we engage in, to the end that it feeds into our mission and vision, and that it ensures a financially viable organisation.”  

You have worked at the Asser Institute for about half a year now. What is your experience?

“It has been amazing to work at the Asser Institute, and I would say that the Asser community really feels like one big happy family [smiles]. My colleagues are fantastic, and truly dedicated to the Institute and our shared mission. What has surprised me the most, however, is the number and diversity of the stakeholders we are involved with. I have been introduced to people working in academia, the ministries, the courts and tribunals, the embassies, but also to people working within NGOs, the Municipality of The Hague, and fellow-research organisations such as ICCT The Hague.

“Even more astonishing is to meet so many external stakeholders that sometimes know little about the Institute itself, but that have seen or heard about our many activities and free events. Based on our excellent research, training programmes and public events and activities, and given the wide scope of our legal knowledge, people tend to assume that we are a big organisation, with some-three hundred or more employees. They are always very surprised to hear that we are much smaller, with a staff of around fifty people and as visible and energetic as a large organisation. I think that this is really something to be proud of. And it is something that I will continue to cherish, as I am extremely pleased that we can do so many different things with our relatively small but enthusiastic and dedicated team.”

Could you tell us a little bit about your approach to executive education and research valorisation at the Institute?

“When you compare Asser to most universities, which primarily cater to students, I think that the Asser Institute is quite unique in its focus and expertise on delivering excellent executive education. Earlier this year, for instance, we organised specialised training programmes on adjudicating international crimes for judges from Ukraine. But we have also educated high-level legal professionals from West Africa in a French-speaking course on international and transnational criminal law, and we had a Spanish course in international criminal law for legal professionals from Colombia.

“We also conduct excellent academic and policy-oriented research and are leaders in various areas of legal expertise in public and private international and European law. In addition, the Asser Institute also makes sure that our knowledge reaches policymakers, legal specialists, and other groups in society. This is crucial, given the numerous societal challenges that we see today, such as climate change, conflicts, or the rapid developments in artificial intelligence. We therefore also place a large focus on multi-year (research) projects to accumulate expert knowledge and assist institutions and other partners in evidence-based decision-making processes. Our mission is to contribute to the development of international and European public and private law, and to disseminate that knowledge as widely as possible, because we believe in justice, and in ‘law, not war’, if I may quote the late Benjamin Ferencz.”

Despite not being a lawyer, how do you perceive the major challenges and maybe opportunities in international and European law?

“We live in challenging times, with conflicts and human rights violations taking place in Europe and globally. Many of these issues are of course closely related to international and European law. Where there are many heated political and public debates taking place, and misinformation is rife, it is important for us as a knowledge institution to remain independent, highlight international and European legal norms, and share knowledge on how international or European law should be interpreted. And I think it is important that we work with a diverse set of partners – be it governments, NGOs, or other stakeholders – because we need these partners to make sure we can address these societal challenges.”  

What role do you believe the Asser Institute plays in society and the international legal community at the moment?

“The Asser Institute was founded in 1965 as an independent inter-university network, in which all Dutch law schools participate. For the last few years, we have been closely affiliated with the University of Amsterdam, and the Amsterdam Law School in particular. But we still cherish our inter-university network, in which we actively promote the collaboration with and between Dutch law schools. For example, we coordinate inter-university research networks such as the Netherlands Network for Human Rights Research (NNHRR) and CLEER, the Centre for the Law of EU External Relations.

“On top of that, we possess a truly international network, exemplified by our connections to the international courts and tribunals and the international organisations here in The Hague, but also by our partnership with foreign institutions, such as the War Crimes Research Office of American University’s Washington College of Law. Our network is truly a unique asset, that I believe really is of value to the diverse Asser community.

“With regards to our role in society, we work on many different themes and issues that are relevant to the public, also by collaborating with government ministries, diplomatic missions and, for instance, the Municipality of The Hague.  Whether it is through art exhibitions, our free lectures, or our education programmes, we are often addressing societal issues and interacting with the public, also through partnerships with for instance the Movies that Matter film festival, and with Hague-based art schools and museums.

How do you foster innovation within the Institute and what new initiatives or new projects are you excited about?

“Together with the academic director, I want  to explore how to build the organisation given the societal goals we have as the Asser Institute. Which partners do we need and how do we engage them. And how do we complement efforts by others in addressing societal challenges”

“I think it is very important to be innovative as a research institute, especially because our society is constantly evolving. Therefore, it is imperative to always evaluate and question where we stand. I always try to push people to think about the activities we are doing, and to be open to new opportunities and ideas. For an organisation, I think it is crucial to give people the freedom and ability to be creative and try new things. Some of these ideas might work, some might not.”  

Read more

A new management team for the Asser Institute in 2024

Kasper Vrolijk, the Asser Institute’s new managing director and member of the executive board since 1 February 2024. Together with Christophe Paulussen, the recently appointed acting academic director and chair of the executive board, Vrolijk is responsible for managing the institute. Read more.

A Recipe to Cook-up Solutions for Problems?

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A Recipe to Cook-up Solutions for Problems?

“A Thought and a Smile…”

By Eelco H. Dykstra, M.D.

What’s this?

A ‘Recipe’ instead of a column?

Yes, it’s a recipe!

There are similarities between diplomats and ‘chefs’ – as in ‘chef de la cuisine’…

Diplomats (are trained to) look at and understand complex problems, break then down in smaller parts and cook them up to produce opportunities if not solutions.

Chefs (are trained to) look at and understand complex recipes, break then down into essential ingredients and cook them up to produce great-tasting dishes. 

In my last column, I argued that complexity doesn’t have to be complicated. Well, one might say – and some readers did – that all sounds nice, but what we really need, is a recipe. A recipe for cooking-up solutions to the increasingly complex problems we either are already facing or see coming.

This column doesn’t so much ‘weave words’ but provides you therefore with a list of 9 ingredients and offers some cooking instructions. Taken together, a recipe for distilling key factors into a clear framework – from establishing a common frame of reference to quantifying “how good is good enough” – to provide a helpful structure, a recipe for tackling big, systemic problems.

By the way, let me share with you that the word ‘list’ in the Dutch language means ‘stratagem’: ‘a plan or scheme to achieve an end’. In other words, a ‘recipe’.    

All right, let’s cook!  

Part A: The Shopping list – What do we need?

Decades of independent research and trans-disciplinary experience, revealed that there are 9 essential ingredients[1] needed to solve highly complex challenges:

Ingredients:

1:             Common Frame of Reference

[Are we sure that all of us see, say, mean and are focused on the same thing?]

2:             Lessons Learned

[Let’s utilize what we already know from our own and others’ experience]

3:             Policy (intent) and Practice (result)

[Let’s bring them closer together]

4:             Fragmentation

[Are there isolated parts or loose ends we need to connect?]

5:             Before-During-After

[Prepping, eating and cleaning are one functional unit, right?]

6:             Pro-action (instead of Re-action)

[Don’t wait until late but anticipate and act early!]

7:             Universal Motivation

[Maintain your focus and sense of urgency at all times!]

8:             Return-on-Investment

[Keep comparing ‘cost’ and ‘benefit’, adjust when needed]

9:             How good is ‘good enough’?

[Define the end-result and make sure that it is what you want – or will accept].            

Part B: How to Cook and Serve? Assigning priorities…

IMPORTANT: Do not, I repeat, do NOT throw all the ingredients at random together as this will create a mess and result in chaos! Instead, before doing anything, ask yourself and your colleagues the following 4 questions:

1:             Which complex challenge do we need to tackle first?

(= Primary Concern)

2:             Which one of 9 essential ingredients is the most important one?

(= Prioritization)

3:             Can we explain the rationale for prioritizing and ranking the 9 ingredients?

(= Motivation)

4:             What is our plan-of-action with the ingredient we assigned a ‘Priority 1’?

(= Recommendation)

So, What’s Next?

Ready, steady, cook!

[1] DIEM’s Nine Universal Roadblocks (NUR) Meta-Model



About the author:

Eelco H. Dykstra. Photography by Tom Manning

Once dubbed a ‘Global Nomad’ in East Africa, Eelco H. Dykstra is a seasoned international crisis and emergency expert. As a true ‘Prac-Ademic’, he blends – also in his column “A Thought and a Smile” – his innate optimism with knowledge from his practical experience and rigorous fact-finding. 

Aside from being founder/chair of the Daily Impact Emergency Management (DIEM) network and a visiting professor in South Africa, he initiated the ’20/20 Vision’ program for the dual purpose of strengthening value-based resilience and overcoming the obstacles that stand in the way of implementing lessons (to  be) learned. Eelco has been a correspondent, written multiple books and articles and continues to work extensively with media, government, business, NGO’s and community-based initiatives. In short, Eelco is a transdisciplinary and trans-cultural multi-tasker – just like diplomats are.

Among his hobbies are cooking and playing the cello – see picture, taken by Tom Manning, during an impromptu performance with the Soweto Youth Orchestra.

Eelco H. Dykstra Professor (visiting), Adaptation and Resilience, University of South-Africa, UNISA. Chair, ’20/20 Vision’ Program: How do we go from ‘Risk’ to ‘Resilience”? Founder, Daily Impact Emergency Management (DIEM) Network 
www.diem.nu  www.20outof20.vision

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Africa between Globalisation and Slow-balisation

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Africa between Globalisation and Slow-balisation

By Lily Ong

Jeffrey Sachs is known for many accolades; among them, he was a special advisor to four consecutive UN General Secretaries and numerous national governments, once hailed as the most important economist in the world by the New York Times, a co-recipient of the Blue Planet Prize for environmental leadership, and a recipient of the Tang Prize for Sustainable Development. Resting on his laurels, however, is the last thing anyone expects professor Sachs to do. On Aug 10, professor’s tireless service to humanity – as he navigated the streets of Stintino, Sardinia in 30-degrees-Celsius heat – can be seen in the generous sharing of his time and expertise: With a multitude of online participants from over 35 countries (of four different continents), who had gathered to hear him at the launch of the prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic’ Certified Economic Diplomat program, a collaborative undertaking with the Institute of Economic and Finance of Ghana.

Professor Sachs kicked off his astute talk by disclosing what he has recently been up to for Africa’s development. Together with the Chief Economist at the African Development Bank, Kevin Urama, the multi-skilled Sachs has been developing a strategy for breaking the poverty cycle in Africa. The team led by the AfDB is set to present their proposal for Africa’s rapid growth at the African Union Summit in February 2025.

In sharing the core strategy, Sachs explicated how Africa can achieve very rapid development in the next 40 years – in the same way China did so during 1980 – 2020 and India is doing so today, starting around 2000. 

“Back in 1980, China was impoverished and not even on the world’s radar screen economically. In fact, its poverty rate was higher than in Africa today. However, China opened up and took important policy measures. Over the next 40 years, not only has it become a high-income economy, but also the world’s largest economy in total GDP measured at purchasing-power parity (PPP),” Sachs explained as he held China up as a good model for Africa.

Sachs went on to state that Africa could achieve the same thing that China did. “Africa has 1.4 billion people, roughly the same population as that of China and India. While India is about 15 to 20 years behind China in its economic trajectory, it has also been experiencing very high growth. China started emerging in 1980 and India around 2000. For Africa, that time is now.”

However, Sachs understood it would take more than a big population to drive rapid growth and was careful to highlight the significant distinction between the three entities. “There is one big difference. Following the colonial period, India remained one large country (actually, British India became three countries: India, Pakistan, and later Bangladesh). China, of course, remained one unified state despite encountering Japan’s imperialistic ambitions and the century of reckless behavior by the European powers. Africa, on the other hand, has to deal with the ongoing difficulties associated with its colonial legacy, notably Europe’s division of Africa into 55 states.”

Sachs proceeded to explain that the 55 individual African states are too small on their own to achieve the kind of global role and competitiveness they need. However, if Africa truly creates a political, economic, financial, and eventually monetary union, then it will be able to emulate the great successes of China and India. With a single market, a unified financial system, and increasing monetary integration, Africa will be well positioned to create a truly unified economic space, also deeply interconnected by trans-boundary infrastructure (for power, fiber, roads, rail, shipping, and ecosystem management).  Moreover, with a strong union, Africa will be positioned to play a global diplomatic role as well, helping to lead global decision-making in key international forums. 

It would serve well at this point, to recall that in Delhi last year, with India’s G20 Presidency, the African Union was made a permanent member of the G20. None could be happier than the 1.4 billion Africans who have finally been given a major voice in deliberations on major global economic issues – and Sachs, who for years, has been advocating indefatigably for the AU to be given a seat at the table.

“An integrated and ambitious African Union (AU) can achieve the kind of growth that China and India have experienced,” Sachs paused before adding determinedly, “I want the AU to be a giant in the same way.”

Like other global leaders, Sachs is a visionary man with ambitious goals, but this is where their similarity ends. Sachs actually knows the roadmap from A to Z and is keenly aware of what Africa needs to achieve this high sustained growth that he wholly believes to be present in the region’s potential. 

Sachs explained that Africa needs a large internal market and diplomatic presence, the latter made possible now with its representation at the G20 (which he hopes will soon be relabeled appropriately as the G21) and the UN. Africa also needs high investments across all major classes of capital, with human capital being the most important, hence the need to provide universal quality education. Sachs also indicated that Africa needs rapid electrification and digital access, so that every household can get lit up and online.

Last but hardly least, Sachs said that Africa needs international loan financing with interest rates comparable to those granted to the US. “The irony here is, the US actually has a higher debt-GDP ratio than most African countries (and other G7 countries such as Italy and Japan have even higher debt-GDP ratios), yet the credit rating agencies have assigned African sovereign borrowers very bad credit ratings. However, Africa has higher growth potential than the high-income countries, and typically lower ratios of debt to GDP. The rating agencies are wrong in their methodology, and the methodology and ratings need to be fixed. If Africa cannot borrow on reasonable terms – meaning low interest rates and long-term maturities – then Africa will remain poor,” he advised.

Another trait that distinguishes Sachs from other leaders lies in the consistency of his messaging. Time and again, he has advocated for a multipolar world where parameters for honest dialogues between developing and developed countries could be established, and meaningful strides towards a more prosperous, inclusive and sustainable world could be made.

 “I want a world of regions dealing with one another. We are one world, interconnected, and we ought to make peace. The mindset of the US is such that it has to be number one and everyone has to follow what it says – that creates a lot of friction,” Sachs lamented. 

“I like the BRICS. Now expanded to ten countries, it comprises around 46% of the world population and 36% of the world GDP (PPP).  It’s a very good group that has come about because its members do not want to be bossed around by the US,” he added.

As Sachs brought his talk to a conclusion, a smile beamed widely across his face, with illuminating rays of hope for Africa to match, in a way that could only be described as contagious and inspiring. Sachs left the audience with an earnest and heartening reminder: The world is much safer if we cooperate with one another.

Africa’s Digital Dilemma

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Africa’s Digital Dilemma

Challenges Facing Africa in the AI Era

In an era where artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the global landscape, data has emerged as a crucial asset, akin to oil in its value and potential. However, as AI technology advances at a breakneck pace, Africa faces daunting challenges that could either propel the continent forward or deepen existing inequalities. Dr. Jovan Kurbalija, a leading authority on digital governance, underscores these critical issues at the Economic Diplomat Programme Top-Heads-Talk lecture (oganised by the prestigous Ghana’s Institute IEF in collaboration with prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic and his European partners), urging Africa to reclaim control over its data, knowledge, and wisdom amidst the transformative era of the second and thrid decade of XXI c.

Africa stands on the precipice of a technological revolution that could redefine its future. Dr. Kurbalija starts his talk, warning that without a decisive strategy, the continent risks being left behind in the global AI race. Central to this challenge is Africa’s underdeveloped data infrastructure. Despite its vast potential, the continent has fewer data centers than even the Netherlands, compelling many African nations to entrust their data to foreign facilities. This dependency raises profound concerns about data security and limits Africa’s capacity to leverage its data for economic advancement.

The backbone of Africa’s internet infrastructure lies in the global network of submarine cables. These vital underwater cables are responsible for approximately 99% of international data traffic, acting as the lifeline of global communication.

Yet, Africa’s reliance on these cables presents a complex challenge. Dr. Kurbalija highlights that “the entire continent has fewer data farms than the Netherlands” and points out that “Africa’s data is stored abroad, raising significant security and privacy concerns” (Kurbalija, 2024). The continent’s connectivity depends on a few major coastal hubs—South Africa, Egypt, and Kenya—making it vulnerable to disruptions caused by natural disasters, human interference, and geopolitical conflicts. To address these vulnerabilities, Africa must invest in expanding and strengthening its digital infrastructure.

Dr. Kurbalija advocates for a paradigm shift towards data sovereignty, emphasizing the imperative for nations to preserve sensitive data on health, identity, and security within their own borders. He argues, “The continent needs urgent action to safeguard and promote its data, knowledge, and wisdom for the AI era as part of the common cultural and knowledge heritage” (Kurbalija, 2024). For Africa, asserting data sovereignty is not merely a matter of security but of economic empowerment. Establishing local data centers and implementing data localization policies can not only enhance security but also drive innovation and foster economic growth. As Kurbalija asserts, “Data localization policies can help African countries to use their data to foster local innovation and economic growth” (Kurbalija, 2024).

Creating a truly inclusive digital future goes beyond mere infrastructure improvements. It requires ensuring equitable access to digital tools and resources. Investing in education and training programs is essential to equip Africans with the skills needed to navigate and excel in the AI-driven landscape. Moreover, promoting local content creation and forging partnerships with global tech companies will help amplify African voices and bridge the digital knowledge gap.

A robust framework for internet governance is crucial for Africa’s digital future. Internet governance is a multifaceted issue that demands collaboration among governments, businesses, civil society organizations, and individuals. According to the report on Africa’s digital voices, “Internet governance requires a collaborative approach involving multiple stakeholders to ensure fair and equitable regulations that support digital development goals” (DiploFoundation, 2022). For African nations, a strong presence in international internet governance discussions is essential to ensuring that policies and regulations support their digital development aspirations.

As Dr. Jovan Kurbalija’s talk concluded, he highlights how the insights into digital governance provide a strategic roadmap for Africa to navigate its challenges and opportunities in the AI era. By prioritizing digital (self-)awearness, along with data sovereignty, fostering inclusive digital development, and engaging in collaborative internet governance, Africa can harness AI’s potential to drive meaningful progress, enhance the quality of life for its citizens, and establish itself as a self-reliant player in the global digital economy.

Truly, it was and still is a great privilege to be amongst distinguished thinkers and architects of the future we all co-create. Admitting worries for common good since contemporary world tensions and energetic crisis are colliding with humanitarian questions, we reflect assurance, decision. Hope. 

This is how the IEF program and this great guest, in a serie of remarkable speakers, impresses each and every of us participants.  

Sources:

Governing Digital Optimism, Prof. Lucija Mulej, Ph.D

Valentina Carvajal Caballero, Colombia ’s Universidad de Los Andes.

Valentina Carvajal Caballero of the Colombia ’s Universidad de Los Andes, is specialising in communication and digital media.

As an Information Officer at IFIMES, she applies her expertise in research and digital transformation to advance the organization’s goals. Founder of Clan Nativus Phydigital Agendas, Valentina combines her entrepreneurial drive with a deep understanding of Latin American digital landscapes to promote positive change through technology.

The AI Arms Race: Transforming Decision-Making in a New Era of Warfare

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The AI Arms Race: Transforming Decision-Making in a New Era of Warfare

By Marco Pizzorno

As nations increasingly integrate artificial intelligence (AI) into military operations, the implications for global security and strategic stability are profound. The adoption of AI technologies in defense is not merely a technological upgrade; it signifies a fundamental shift in how military decisions are made, executed, and perceived. This transformation prompts a reevaluation of existing geopolitical paradigms, raising critical questions about accountability, ethics, and the balance of power in international relations.

AI’s potential to enhance decision-making in military contexts is significant. Algorithms can analyze vast amounts of data in real-time, enabling commanders to make informed decisions faster than ever before. As noted by the U.S. Department of Defense, “AI has the potential to revolutionize the battlefield, providing our forces with unprecedented situational awareness and operational effectiveness” (U.S. Department of Defense, 2020). This ability to process information swiftly can lead to more effective strategies, better resource allocation, and ultimately, a higher likelihood of success in military operations.

However, the integration of AI into the military also raises serious ethical and strategic concerns. One of the most pressing issues is accountability. As autonomous systems become more prevalent, it becomes increasingly difficult to ascertain responsibility for decisions made by these machines. Dr. Stuart Russell, a prominent AI researcher, warns, “If we delegate decisions to machines, we must ensure that those machines operate within ethical and legal frameworks that reflect our values” (Russell, 2021). The potential for unintended consequences, especially in high-stakes environments, necessitates a robust oversight mechanism to prevent misuse and ensure compliance with international law.

Moreover, the race to develop advanced military AI capabilities could exacerbate existing tensions between global powers. Nations that excel in AI technology may gain a significant strategic advantage, leading to an arms race reminiscent of the Cold War. As Chinese military strategist Zhao Tianjun stated, “Whoever masters AI will dominate the future battlefield” (Zhao, 2022). This sentiment underscores the urgency with which countries are investing in AI research and development, often prioritizing speed and capability over ethical considerations.

The proliferation of AI in military applications also raises concerns about escalation and conflict dynamics. The speed of AI-driven decision-making could lead to rapid responses in crisis situations, potentially diminishing the time available for diplomatic solutions. According to the RAND Corporation, “The introduction of AI into military operations could fundamentally alter the calculus of deterrence and escalation” (RAND Corporation, 2021). As states grapple with these new realities, the risk of miscalculation during crises increases, heightening the possibility of unintended conflict.

To navigate these challenges, it is crucial for nations to engage in dialogue and establish norms governing the use of AI in military contexts. International frameworks that address ethical considerations and accountability mechanisms must be developed to mitigate the risks associated with autonomous military systems. Furthermore, fostering collaboration between militaries, academia, and the private sector can lead to more responsible and transparent AI development.

In conclusion, while the integration of artificial intelligence into military decision-making holds the promise of enhanced operational effectiveness, it also presents significant ethical and strategic challenges. As the global landscape shifts, it is imperative for policymakers to approach AI in military contexts with caution, ensuring that technological advancements do not outpace our ability to govern them responsibly. The future of warfare may be shaped by AI, but it is humanity’s responsibility to wield this powerful tool wisely.

References:

  • 1. U.S. Department of Defense. (2020). “AI Strategy.”
  • 2. Russell, S. (2021). “Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control.”
  • 3. Zhao, T. (2022). “The Future of Warfare: AI and Geopolitical Power.”
  • 4. RAND Corporation. (2021). “Artificial Intelligence and Military Strategy.”

Diplomacy and Diplomatic Training: Interwoven Paths to Worldwide Success

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Diplomacy and Diplomatic Training: Interwoven Paths to Worldwide Success

By Ron Ton, Director Clingendael Academy

In an increasingly interconnected world, the art of diplomacy stands as a cornerstone for maintaining peace, fostering international cooperation, and addressing global challenges. The complex interplay of negotiation, communication, and relationship-building that characterizes diplomacy is a formidable challenge. Central to the effectiveness of diplomats is the rigorous training that prepares them for the complex realities of their roles. This essay explores how diplomacy and diplomatic training are intertwined, highlighting their mutual importance in achieving worldwide success.

The Essence of Diplomacy

At its core, diplomacy is the practice of managing international relations through dialogue, negotiation, and collaboration. It involves a wide range of activities, from peace negotiations and trade agreements to cultural exchanges and conflict resolution. The primary goal of diplomacy is to advance a nation’s interests while fostering peaceful and constructive relations with other countries.

Diplomats serve as their country’s representatives abroad, acting as intermediaries who bridge cultural, political, and economic divides. Their work requires not only a deep understanding of their own nation’s policies and goals but also a keen awareness of the global landscape and the perspectives of other nations.

The Role of Diplomatic Training

Diplomatic training is essential for equipping individuals with the skills and knowledge needed to navigate the complex world of international relations. This training encompasses a broad array of topics, including international law, economics, political science, languages, and cultural studies. It also involves the development of skills and competences such as negotiation, intercultural communication, public speaking, and conflict resolution.

Institutions and programs dedicated to diplomatic training, such as diplomatic academies and international relations schools, play a crucial role in preparing diplomats for their responsibilities. These institutions vary in their focus, methodologies, and target audiences, but they share common objectives of fostering professionalism and proficiency in diplomacy.

The Interplay Between Diplomacy and Training

The relationship between diplomacy and diplomatic training is symbiotic. Effective diplomacy relies on well-trained diplomats who can adeptly manage the nuances of international relations. Conversely, the evolving demands of global diplomacy continually shape the focus and content of diplomatic training programs. Similarly, the rise of digital diplomacy and the use of social media in international relations have prompted training programs to incorporate digital communication strategies.

In the swiftly changing domain of modern diplomacy, the importance of diplomatic training in skills and competences cannot be overstated. Skills development in diplomatic training is essential for diplomats to effectively engage in negotiations, mediation, and dialogue across diverse cultural contexts, promoting national interests and fostering international cooperation. These skills enable diplomats to build relationships, manage crises, and represent their countries adeptly on the global stage.

The Growing Importance of Diplomatic Training

The evolving international landscape has underscored the growing importance of diplomatic training. Several factors contribute to this increasing necessity. Global challenges have become more complex. Issues such as climate change, cybersecurity, migration, and pandemics require sophisticated, coordinated responses that only well-trained diplomats can provide. Also, the rise of digital diplomacy and the widespread influence of social media demand that diplomats are proficient in new communication technologies and strategies. Furthermore, emerging powers, shifting alliances, and regional conflicts necessitate a deep understanding of new political dynamics and the ability to adapt to changing circumstances.

The dynamics between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other ministries within governments are rapidly evolving. Ministries responsible for areas such as agriculture, energy, transport, justice, and economics are reevaluating the balance between domestic priorities and international engagement. The concept of “fast diplomacy” is nowadays more applicable than ever. The concept underscores the necessity for diplomats to adapt to rapid changes and act swiftly to address emerging challenges, reflecting the dynamic nature of today’s interconnected world. This necessitates acquiring new competencies and adjusting behaviors accordingly.

Increased Awareness of Diplomatic Training

Enhanced investment in diplomatic training is evident through several key initiatives. One significant example is the expansion of diplomatic academies. Many countries are broadening the scope and resources of their diplomatic training institutions.

Additionally, governments are increasing funding for diplomatic training programs. This financial commitment underscores the recognition of the long-term benefits of having a well-trained diplomatic corps, ensuring that diplomats are equipped with the latest knowledge and skills required to address complex international issues effectively.

Moreover, there is a growing emphasis on continuous professional development for diplomats. Training programs are evolving to offer ongoing learning opportunities, ensuring that diplomats remain updated on emerging global trends and best practices. This focus on lifelong learning is essential for maintaining a dynamic and proficient diplomatic workforce.

The Didactics of Diplomatic Training

Didactics, the art and science of teaching, plays a crucial role in diplomatic training. Effective diplomatic training programs use a variety of didactic methods to ensure that trainees can internalize and apply their learning in practical contexts. These methods include interactive lectures and seminars, case studies, simulations and role-playing.

Experiential learning through internships, fieldwork, and on-the-job training provides hands-on experience that is essential for understanding the everyday realities of diplomatic work.

A training program linked to career development is crucial for diplomatic training as it ensures ongoing professional growth, retention, effective performance, adaptability and strategic goals. Additionally, opportunities for participants to build networks with peers, mentors, and professionals in the field facilitate knowledge sharing and collaboration, providing ongoing support and insights throughout diplomats’ careers.

The Role of the Clingendael Academy

The Clingendael Academy, based in The Hague, Netherlands, plays a significant role in world wide diplomatic and international relations training. As the diplomatic and international training institute of the Netherlands, it offers a range of training programs tailored to the needs of diplomats and international professionals.

Clingendael Academy’s approach combines thematic insights with practical skills development, leveraging its expertise and network of diplomatic practitioners and experts. Its contributions to diplomatic training extend beyond the Netherlands, with international participants benefiting from its specialized programs and workshops.

In addition to the diplomatic domain, the Clingendael Academy also operates in other sectors such as security and defense, the humanitarian field, peace negotiations, European policies, economics and trade, and sustainable development.

Other services provided by the Academy are institutional development of foreign diplomatic and defense schools, capacity building in educational processes, training-the-trainer programs and advising and consultancy.

The Clingendael Academy Approach

The Clingendael Academy distinguishes itself in several ways. The Clingendael Academy operates with a training philosophy that integrates content, competencies, and work processes. Content involves essential themes that are vital to the working fields of the Academy’s various training audiences. Competencies are crucial qualities and skills that enable the Academy’s various training audiences to achieve their goals and represent their interests as effectively as possible. Work processes are guidelines on how to complete specific tasks and activities expected of individual trainees in their respective professional environments. Applying this model to each target group ensures that it meets their specific learning needs.

Furthermore, Clingendael Academy maintains an internal capacity to develop practical case studies, role-playing scenarios, and simulations. The Academy employs in-house trainers specialized in various diplomatic skills. Staff members collaborate in flexible teams where each individual plays a role in acquisition processes and innovative developments. Additionally, every staff member undergoes an internal educational management program aimed at developing them into professionals in diplomatic training.

Conclusion

In conclusion, diplomatic training is indispensable for the future of diplomatic services, equipping diplomats with the competencies, adaptability, and strategic insights needed to address global challenges, leverage technological advancements, and promote international cooperation effectively. As the demands of global diplomacy continue to evolve, investing in comprehensive and innovative diplomatic training programs remains crucial for preparing diplomats to navigate an increasingly complex international landscape with skill, professionalism, and foresight.

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