By Barend ter Haar.

Is it Winston Churchill who once remarked that “The United States can always be relied upon to do the right thing — having first exhausted all possible alternatives”? Can the same now be said about the United Kingdom with regard to the European Union?

For more than two years the British government has looked for alternatives for staying in the European Union. As could be foreseen (see Why Brexit might not take place), the promised advantages proved illusionary, while the predicted problems proved very real.[1]

Brexit is costing the United Kingdom already half a billion pounds a week. Most Brexiteers might be willing to pay that price, but are not willing to risk a new outbreak of the civil war in Northern Ireland by denouncing the Good Friday Agreement that made an end to that war.

That means that the border between Ulster and the Irish Republic has to remain open. One way to accomplish that would be to keep Northern Ireland in the European single market and set up a new border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. The alternative would be to keep the whole United Kingdom in the single market. That  would mean that it would be bound by the rules made in Brussels without having a say in them: the opposite of being “back in control”.

It is not surprising that, as it has become clear that Brexit will bring the United Kingdom few benefits and many disadvantages, all polls point to a majority for remain if a new referendum would be held.

However, unless a sufficient number of MP’s dares to put the long term national interest above the interests of their party or faction, Prime Minister May might win her gamble and get her proposal approved by parliament in the next few weeks. But if she does not succeed, a postponement of Brexit is almost certain and a second referendum becomes more likely.

No matter whether the UK will remain in the EU or not, the deep societal divide that the Brexit referendum has brought to light will remain, because the deeper cause of this divide is not membership of the EU, but the uneven consequences of globalization. In this respect Great Britain does not differ from other Western countries such as France and the Netherlands. Half or more of the people of these countries feel that they suffer the disadvantages of Europeanisation while the benefits go mainly to the elites and they fear that the immigration of people of a different culture will disturb the social cohesion of their neighbourhoods.

Governments should address these feelings and fears, not by withdrawing from international cooperation and hiding behind national borders and walls, like populist parties would like them to do, but by intensifying international cooperation to deal with the root causes of these problems.

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[1] https://www.clingendael.org/publication/why-brexit-might-not-take-place

By Ambassador Jauhar Saleem, Head of Mission of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to the Federal Republic of Germany

The tourism sector is considered as one of the largest economic sectors in the world. It is also regarded as the most important economic activity in many developed economies of the world due to the opportunities it offers in creating employment and augmenting the foreign exchange earnings of the country.

Pakistan is home to some of the world’s oldest civilizations, i.e. Mehergarh, Gandhara and Indus valley (Mohenjo-Daro and Harappa). It is also endowed with potentially rich tourism attractions, which stretch from the mighty Karakorams/Hindukush in the North to the vast alluvial delta of the Indus River in the South. We are also blessed with a rich and varied flora and fauna. Gilgit-Baltistan, for instance, is one of the most spectacular regions in the world in terms of its geography and scenic beauty. Here world’s three mightiest mountain ranges: the Karakoram, the Hindkush and the Himalayas meet, rendering it a paradise for mountaineers, trekkers and anglers. Besides the numerous peaks above 8,000 meters in these mighty mountain ranges, alpine meadows, the vast Indus plain, the great desert, the coastline and wetlands are an addition to Pakistan’s beauty.

Besides mountain/adventure and Archaeological tourism, Pakistan also offers Religious/faith tourism and conventional/cultural tourism. Pakistan is also home to several places of great attraction for Hindu, Buddhist and Sikh people. Gurdwaras at Nankana Sahib and Hasan Abdal are a great attraction for Sikhs all over the world.

In recent years, Pakistan has largely been unable to attract attention of international tourists to the degree its tourist attractions merit despite its rich history, treasured heritage, impressive landscapes and unique cultural diversity. The key hurdle in the realization of its tourism is the continuous flow of lopsided media reports about Pakistan and lack of information about its tourist attractions.

In last few years, more than 1.7 million foreigners have visited Pakistan annually, which shows a remarkable increase in the ratio of tourists’ influx. By the year 2025, the tourism sector is expected to contribute Pak Rs. 1 trillion, equivalent to approx. US $ 7 billion, to Pakistan’s economy.

With the growing focus on developing Pakistan’s tourism industry, the present government has announced visa on arrival policy, to be implemented in near future, for the citizens of 50 countries which include Austria, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and Spain. Moreover, IATA approved tour operators have also been allowed to bring tourist groups to Pakistan. In order to further facilitate the tourists visiting Pakistan, the government has eased the previous policies which could restrict the tourist’s movements in Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir areas.

With the increased efforts by the government, Pakistan’s profile in the global tourism sector is going up fast with various tourism, media organizations, and travelers now figuring it among the world’s top tourist destinations. Be it Forbes, the global media company, British Backpacker Society, solo travelers or bloggers, all are in unanimity to believe Pakistan is fast becoming a tourism hub with its changing geo-strategic situation, improvement in the internal security environment and more importantly the liberalization of tourists’ visa policy.

The rapid rise in economic activity, particularly under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and the consequent enhancement of world’s interest in the country for investment, has also cast encouraging impact on country’s dwindling tourism industry. Based on the improving ranking amid positive observations by various organizations and foreign travellers, we are confident that Pakistan will emerge as a popular international tourist destination in coming years.

By Corneliu Pivariu.

The annual edition of the World Economic Forum took place – at Davos – between 22nd-25th of January, 2019, a global event which we follow closely every year.

This year’s meeting has brought to Switzerland more than 3,000 personalities of the political, economic and financial, and media fields and other or, summing up, the planet’s plutocracy and all the circles connected to it. The fact that around 60% of the participants come from five countries only is interesting, too, a situation we noticed, with similar percentages, during other important international conferences we attended over the years.

As is already customary since several years, the relevant documents went public a short time before the meeting, among them the 14th edition of Global Risks Report, a document not always accepted without objections by the circles of world geopolitical analysis, and which has nevertheless its specificity and represents a useful analysis instrument of global evolutions in the economic, climate, geopolitical, social and technological fields.

According to this report, the most likely five events happening in 2019 are, in an orderly fashion: major climate change; failure of the environment protection policies  and adapting to climate change; natural disasters; data theft and fraud; cyber attacks.

As far as the impact of risks is concerned, we find on the first five places: weapons of mass destruction, failure of the environment protection policies and adapting to climate change; extreme weather events; water crisis; natural disasters.

As compared to the situation ten years ago, we notice that the environment risks replaced the economic ones (in 2009 the global economic and financial crisis was in full swing) while the weapons of mass distruction, which were not placed on the first five places until 2012, are considered in 2019 to be on the first place as far as impact is concerned.

Among the geopolitical risks, the most important and probable ones are the following: profound social instability; failure of national policies; failure of regional or global policies; unforced migration on a large scale.

As evolutionary trends, the most dangerous ones are considered the following: climate change; the deterioration of the environment; an increased polarisation of societies; increased cyber dependency; polarisation and disparity in stockpiling wealth; population ageing and another five tendencies of lesser levels than the aforementioned ones.

We mention among the main factors that marked the Davos meeting agenda:

–  Japan’s prime minister submitted his country’s resolve, as G20 chairman, to launch the agenda for data governance at global level and mentioned that it will take place on the background of the Osake Process and under the WTO auspices;

–  More than 70 countries confirmed their intention of launching negotiations in the framework of WTO for convening the elements pertaining to e-commerce in order to reduce costs and a greater participation to global digital economy;

–  Pursuing the multilateral diplomatic dialogue in order to further peace efforts on the main conflicted global issues, Western Balkans and Syria included. The Forum agreed upon setting up a community of public-private leaders for a special dialogue on the Israeli-Palestinian relations. Worth noticing in this respect is a coming international meeting to take place in Jordan during 6th-7th of April, which may become a global summit for peace and reconciliation;

–  The Center Network for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, set up in 2017, announced its expansion following the adherence of more than 100 governments and businesses, including five G7 members. UNICEF, OHCHR and  WFP are the first international organisations to join it;

–  The Indian State of Andhra Pradesh adopted a platform for the UAVs operators  in cooperation with 10 civil aviation authorities, eight government international organisations and 23 private companies;

–  A range of other measures in the digital and cyber field has been adopted, including setting up higher standards for protecting privacy and interoperability.

We noticed, for the first time since the 1990s, a Romanian participation to WEF, in the person of the vice-prime minister for implementing strategic partnerships -Ana Birchall.

WEF becomes thus more and more a global cooperation platform and less an important international annual conference which may have an ever greater influence on the evolution towards a globalised world.

About the author:

Corneliu Pivariu Military Intelligence and International Relations Senior Expert

A highly decorated retired two-star general of the Romanian army, during two decades he has led one of the most influential magazines on geopolitics and international relations in Eastern Europe, the bilingual journal Geostrategic Pulse.

By H.E. Datin Sarah Albakri Devadason, Head of Mission of Malaysia to Germany.

Tourism has become an important sector for Malaysia’s national growth and economic development. In 2017, tourism revenue contributed 14.9 percent to Malaysia’s economy. The direct contribution of the tourism industry to the nation’s GDP recorded 6.1 percent with a value of €18.3 billion. Despite the vast distance between Malaysia and Germany, tourist arrivals have been encouraging with 128,000 German tourist visiting Malaysia in 2018.

Malaysia has 14 states and each offers a unique experience of its culture, nature, varied delicious cuisines and its friendly people and their hospitality. It is a multicultural melting pot of Asia, with strong influence from the Malay Archipelago, China, India and the rest of Southeast Asia. Visitors to Malaysia will be mesmerised by  this fusion of diverse influence. Malaysia hosts five UNESCO World Heritage sites namely, Lenggong Valley, Mulu National Park, Kinabalu Park, Georgetown and Malacca. These sites are known for their biodiversity, archaeological, historical and cultural value.

Malaysia is also the home of exotic wildlife such as the proboscis monkey and orangutan. It is the best place to see these incredible animals in the wild. One can head over to Borneo to see the charismatic orangutan in the jungles of Sepilok, Sabah and the Semenggoh Nature Reserve in Sarawak; trek up Mount Kinabalu for an amazing jungle experience and visit remote villages; view vast green paddy fields of Kedah; and enjoy the unique flora and fauna found in the Belum Forest Reserve, Taman Negara National Park and Kilim Geoforest Park.

Adventure seekers may take up the challenge of exploring the vast caves at the Mulu National Park, trek through the tea plantations of the Cameron Highlands, bungee jump at Sunway Extreme Park, white water rafting at Kuala Kubu Bharu and snorkelling or scuba diving at the many spots off the Peninsula or the coast of Sabah.

Malaysia is also committed to sustainable tourism. Sea turtle lovers can visit the Ma’Daerah Turtle Sanctuary in Terengganu or Melaka’s Padang Kemunting Turtle Hatchery. In addition, one could also visit endangered elephants at the Kuala Gandah Elephant Sanctuary or endangered wild cattle at the Seladang-Gaur Wildlife Conservation Center.

Visitors who are interested in agriculture may also enjoy our agricultural tourism. There are farms that share their farming practices and feature tours, activities and accommodations within its compound. For example, Kahang Organic Rice Eco Farm which produces rice, vegetables, fruits, herbs and seafood, offers tours of its rice fields, prawn breeding facility and wild duck sanctuary. It also offers other activities such as mountain climbing, bamboo rafting and boat riding. Visitors can immerse themselves in nature by glamping or staying in floating chalets amid rice fields.

Malaysia is proud to be the Country Partner of ITB 2019. It allows Malaysia to showcase itself globally and reach out to potential tourists from the European region and beyond. Visitors to the Malaysian pavilion would be able to enjoy performances by the national cultural troupe that reflect the beauty and extravagance of the Malaysian culture and heritage.

Visitors would also have the opportunity to sample delicious Malaysian cuisine such as Nasi Lemak, a Malay dish of fragrant rice cooked in coconut milk and screwpine leaves. In addition, it is also highly recommended for one to try our Satay which is skewered and grilled meat, served with flavourful peanut sauce; and roti jala, a lacy pancake, served with curry.

Malaysia is gearing up to hosting 30 million tourists for Visit Malaysia Year 2020. As such many exciting activities and packages for visitors are ongoing and are being planned. It would be all the more opportune for travellers to make the trip to Malaysia and experience the beauty and enchantment of a land that is truly Asia.

By akhtyar Aljaf.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif expressed his resignation, a quiet diplomat and a seasoned politician, one of the soft faces of Iran’s foreign policy, for what is known as a political wisdom who can able to bring Iran an acceptable nuclear agreement. It was enough when the dean of diplomacy of the 20^th century Kissinger given him a copy of his book dedicated with “To my enemy who deserves respect”.

Zarif political independence gave him a margin for political maneuvering, which was rarely had his predecessors from the former Iranian foreign ministers. But the mentality of the revolution seems to be dominating the mentality of the state in Iran. The result is that he announced his resignation on 26.02.2019 and which was rejected from President Hassan Rouhani who is reformer like him.

The possibility of the possibility of the political transformations in Iran is closer to speculation than expected. We can’t analyze about Iran’s foreign policy without Zarif, as long as Iran today seems to not care about the consequences of confrontation with the international community.

President Rouhani himself may be a subjected to a scenario similar to Zarif scenario. Eventual questioning in the parliament and the call of former Iranian President Ahmadinejad to his impeachment and forming a transitional government to continue confrontation with US.

The reformist movement in Iran believes that the conservatives along with the deep state clerical establishment  is convinced that if things continue as they are internally and externally, the character of the next president will be military. The new Leader should be a strategic military figure such as Qasem Soleimani (Commander of the Quds corps) or Mohsen Rezai (former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the current secretary of the Expediency discernment council). General Qasem Soleimani will stay as the key figure among others, because of his relations with the deep state, and even externally with his relations with various political and military movements in the Middle East) Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libanon) connected to Iran.

Despite the many reasons discussed in the background prompted Zarif to resign, this resignation indicate that there is a big dissidence in the Iranian political system. At the time Zarif called for necessity of Iran to deal with European conditions more seriously , the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued the most critical words to the Europeans, and considered them as partners with the US  in an attempt to destroy Iran.

The main reason behind this resignation is the nature of dealing with Iran’s foreign policy. The bilateralism that has characterized Iran’s foreign policy since 1979. The Iranian political divergence has caused a lot of paralysis And raise the skepticism of the international community.  When Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif uses the language of diplomacy with others, we find the generals of the Revolutionary Guard and the advisers of the Supreme Leader use the language of threats and intimidation

Despite Zarif’s continuous attempts to prove an independent foreign policy away from the conservative and reformist conflict in Iran, he did not succeed in that either. Each faction has a particular view on Iran’s foreign priorities, which in turn restricted many of Zarif’s foreign efforts. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards try to return back the nuclear negotiations to the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, and withdraw the file from the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

The Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards want the end of the Trump’s presidency term, without any concessions. Any succeeded foreign minister cannot change anything. As long as the Advisers of Khamenei are the planners of Iran’s foreign policy, the military diplomacy will be the shape of Iran’s foreign policy.

Zarif wrote in his memoirs published in 2013, entitled “Mr. Ambassador” says “in diplomacy, you have to always smile  … but never forget that you are talking with the enemy.” He was very realistic and regarding the nuclear agreement he thinks that the agreement cannot be perfect, and an ideal deal for a party, it will be catastrophic for the other party.

Zarif who was continued attacked from the both sides (Conservatives in his country and some US officials)

Iranian conservatives described Zarif as a coward because he was studying in the United States rather than defending his country during the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988.

US Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican who opposes the nuclear deal, wrote a tweet about Zarif in 2015, in which he twitted “you hid in U.S. during Iran-Iraq war while peasants & kids were marched to die”.

Zarif’s answer was by congratulating Senator Cotton on the birth of his son!

An experienced diplomat will be missed not only in Iran but in all global diplomacy and how much we need like him in our world today.

About the author: Bakhtyar Aljaf , is the Director of IFIMES (International Institute of the consultative status with the UN)