China Defined – Propositions on the meaning of “developing country” in the World Trade Organization

By Isa Jeziah Dookie

 “CHEATING,” is how President Donald Trump described China’s self-designation as a developing country in the World Trade Organization (WTO). One might be forgiven for dismissing President Trump’s tweet as just another bombastic Trumpism were it not for the fact that the subsequent U.S. administration and the U.S. Congress made it clear this, albeit in more diplomatic but no less strong words, was U.S. policy. Under the Biden administration, the (unpretentiously named) “PRC Is Not a Developing Country Act” cleared the House in a 415-0 vote and was approved by a Senate committee, though it has not yet been enacted into law. The U.S. remains firm in its stance that China should not receive developing-country treatment at the WTO.

China, for its part, labelled President Trump’s cheating allegation as the absurd trickery of a global hegemon and has staunchly defended its position before the WTO, maintaining that it is merely the world’s largest developing economy. However, in September 2025, China announced that while it continues to regard itself as a developing country, it will no longer seek Special and Differential Treatment (SDT) in current and future WTO negotiations, a significant policy shift aimed at defusing the long-running U.S.–China dispute. Even so, Beijing’s declaration does not affect its existing WTO commitments or its broader developing-country narrative, leaving the debate over how “development” should be defined very much alive.

The WTO should adopt objective but non-deterministic criteria for deciding which countries are “developing countries” for the purpose of WTO trade agreements and which are not. The decision on whether a country is developing should be placed before the Dispute Settlement Body as a strategy to break the deadlock on the WTO Appellate Body.

The Dispute: Redefining “Developing” in the WTO Order

In the aftermath of World War II, the United States and its allies rebuilt global institutions on principles of fairness, justice, and non-discrimination, establishing the United Nations to safeguard peace and human rights and creating a new economic order, embodied in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and later the WTO, to promote equal access to trade, economic collaboration, and shared prosperity.

The WTO trade order rests on five core principles: non-discrimination, freer trade, predictability, fair competition, and support for development. Non-discrimination, through Most-Favoured Nation and national treatment rules, ensures equal trading conditions among members. Together with tariff reduction, transparent commitments, competitive fairness, and flexibility for developing nations, these principles aim to create a stable and equitable global trading system.

Concessions for developing countries in the WTO

The WTO’s founding promise was clear: give developing nations, especially the poorest, a fair share of global trade, but in practice, those lofty words often clash with limited capacity and uneven benefits. In line with the stated principle to encourage development and economic reform, the WTO agreements contain special provisions to the benefit of developing countries by offering special rights or extra leniency. This is referred to as “special and differential treatment” (SDT).

Developing countries are facilitated by being allowed extra time to fulfil their commitments, given greater market access to increasing trading opportunities, having their interests safeguarded, and being helped. Developing countries enjoy limited trade advantages under WTO rules.For instance, the Subsidies and Countervailing Measures Agreement exempts those with a per capita GNP under $1,000 from subsidy bans and grants all developing members a grace period to phase out export subsidies. They also benefit from the Generalized System of Preferences, which lowers tariffs on their exports to developed nations, and from preferential trade arrangements among developing countries themselves.

China’s WTO Accession and the “Developing Country” Status

In the WTO’s world, countries decide for themselves whether they’re ‘developing’; a self-declared status that lets China and others claim benefits meant for the world’s poorest nations.

When China joined the WTO in 2001, it claimed developing-country status but was pressed by the U.S. and EU to accept stricter “WTO-plus” terms eliminating subsidies without a transition period and waiving rights under Article 27 of the Subsidies Agreement. Two decades later, Beijing highlighted its over-compliance, cutting tariffs on manufactured goods to 2.8% below required levels and opening 20 more service sectors than pledged, yet critics argue it still lags on subsidy disclosure and reform of its vast state-owned enterprises.

The USA’ led complaints

From the start, developed nations bristled at China’s ‘developing country’ label, a dispute that has since snowballed into a global backlash against self-designation even stalling the Doha talks.

In February 2019, the U.S. escalated its challenge to the WTO’s self-declared “developing country” system, warning in a 45-page paper that the practice was outdated, stifled liberalization, and risked making the WTO irrelevant; it also tabled a draft decision urging that wealthier members forgo special treatment in future trade talks.

U.S. lawmakers have taken a united stand against China’s “developing country” label. After the protectionist Inflation Reduction Act, Congress introduced Mitt Romney’s Ending China’s Developing Nation Status Act, and the PRC Is Not a Developing Country Act, which orders the State Department to identify all treaties granting China leniency based on development status within 180 days, a clear signal that Washington’s patience has run out.

Self Designation – Is It Really the Issue?

Analysts argue that China’s “developing country” status offers little real benefit, since it cut industrial tariffs to 9.5% from the usual 31.4% and agricultural tariffs to 15.1% from 37.9%, showing that even as a self-declared developing nation, it received almost no preferential treatment.

While accession concessions dilute the strength of SDT, they remain a key bargaining tool for developing nations. Developed members negotiate on the assumption that such countries need incentives to join the free trade system, calibrating SDT reductions to their economic limitations. Today’s backlash arises from the view that China’s remaining SDT benefits, once justified by its developmental status, now grant it an unfair competitive edge it no longer needs.

India made a different case that the label does not matter. India argued that most SDT provisions in the WTO covered agreements are imprecise, unenforceable and in the form of ‘best endeavour clauses, noting that though Members can declare themselves as developing, their specific rights and obligations are still subject to negotiations.

India’s stance carries weight. Developing-country status under the WTO is less a fixed label than a flexible negotiating tool that depends on each nation’s economic capacity and trade needs. The law merely requires developed members to avoid demanding reciprocal concessions that exceed those capacities. From this perspective, debates over who “is” a developing country miss the point, the real question is how development needs should be assessed case by case in future negotiations.

The EU’s proposal for a targeted, evidence-based approach to SDT reflects a shift toward practicality, moving away from broad, open-ended exemptions. This approach assumes that SDT was a mechanism designed by developed countries to help or control developing nations within a global trade framework. Yet the balance of advantage has shifted: rather than a gateway to economic liberalization, SDT has become a strategic shield for emerging powers like China, which have used it to expand global market access while limiting exposure to intrusive trade rules. In this light, debates over original intent are secondary to present realities; if China truly gained no advantage from its developing status, it would have little reason to resist mounting pressure to give it up.

Alternatives to Self-Designation

If the era of self-designation is to end, what is to replace it? In its draft decision, the United States proposed that WTO members falling into any of four categories should no longer qualify for SDT: those belonging to or seeking accession to the OECD, members of the G20, countries classified by the World Bank as “high income,” or those accounting for at least 0.5% of global merchandise trade. These are independent disqualifiers; meeting even one would exclude a member from SDT, and the proposal also reserves the right to deny SDT to other developing countries in specific sectors.

The U.S. justified this approach to modernize WTO rules, yet each criterion raises questions. OECD membership is treated as proof of “developed” status, even though this effectively substitutes one form of self-declaration for another. G20 membership is offered with no clear rationale, despite including entities like the EU and the African Union that are not countries. The World Bank’s income classification provides a more objective measure, though its thresholds are arguably arbitrary. The trade volume test, set at 0.5% of global merchandise trade, is equally problematic, as it ignores the nature of exports and unfairly penalizes populous economies such as China.

Critics argue that these criteria are designed to target China, which meets several of them, and to curtail SDT for emerging economies more broadly. China denounced the proposal as relying on “flawed” indicators that exaggerate development levels, while India condemned it as “arbitrary” and “divisive,” suspecting it to be a strategy to phase out SDT altogether.

Two weeks after the U.S. unveiled its proposal, China, India, and several developing nations fired back with a joint statement invoking Thomas Jefferson’s warning that “nothing is more unequal than the equal treatment of unequal people.” They defended self-declaration as the fairest way to define developing-country status, acknowledging economic progress but stressing that indicators like per capita GDP, poverty, undernourishment, agricultural dependence, and energy disparities still justify differential treatment.

What criteria then?

While agreeing with the U.S. that self-declaration should be replaced by objective measures, the U.S. criteria, based largely on membership and size, fall short of true objectivity. A fairer approach would combine measurable indicators like GDP per capita, poverty and undernourishment rates, life expectancy, and the share of high-value trade and services, reflecting real quality of life and economic capacity. Such a multi-factor model would prevent any single metric from being decisive, with disputes over classification settled by the WTO’s dispute resolution system, once, that is, the U.S. agrees to restore the Appellate Body it helped disable.

About the author:

Isa Jeziah Dookie is a multi-jurisdictional lawyer called to the Bars of England & Wales, Trinidad & Tobago, and Ontario, Canada. He carries qualifications in business law and middle-eastern law, and has appeared before various courts and panels in the Caribbean, Canada, and the UK, at the first-instance and appellate levels.

Bridging the Future: Strengthening Economic and Security Ties between Romania and the Kingdom of the Netherlands

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By H.E. Mr. Nicolae Comanescu, Ambassador of Romania to the Kingdom of the Netherlands


In recent years, the diplomatic, economic, and security relationships between Romania and the Kingdom of the Netherlands have witnessed significant growth and development. Rooted in shared values and interests, the bilateral cooperation continues to evolve, reflecting both countries’ commitment to enhancing their partnership in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

Diplomatic Engagements and NATO Cooperation

Building on this strong foundation, this year marks 145 years of diplomatic relations between Romania and the Netherlands, highlighting the enduring partnership between the two countries. Recent high-profile diplomatic engagements, including meetings between the Romanian and Dutch foreign ministers, have reaffirmed their shared commitment to deepening cooperation across political, security, economic, technological, and cultural domains. This interaction was further illustrated by Romania’s active involvement in the NATO Summit held in The Hague in June 2025, where discussions focused on bolstering defense capacities amid the ongoing geopolitical challenges in Eastern Europe. The ongoing war of aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has galvanized both nations to reinforce their commitment to NATO and European security.

Both countries are united in supporting Ukraine against this aggression, firmly believing in the importance of European solidarity and the defense of common values. The NATO Summit in The Hague in June 2025 marked a critical point in enhancing strategic military cooperation, with Romania benefiting from the stationing of NATO battle groups on its territory, further integrating into the collective defense framework.

The bilateral military cooperation has been strengthened through visits and meetings attended by Dutch military officials and their Romanian counterparts. A pivotal agreement emerged during the NATO Summit, with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on the expansion of the F-16 Training Center in Romania – highlighting the countries’ joint commitment to improving their defense capabilities.

Economic Collaboration

Beyond security, the economic relationship between Romania and the Netherlands has been flourishing. The Netherlands is one of the largest foreign investors in Romania, accounting for approximately 20% of total foreign direct investments, with a social subscribed and paid-in registered capital of €9.9 billion and more than 25 billion euro total invested capital across various sectors. Over 6,200 Romanian-Dutch joint ventures and a bilateral trade turnover in goods amounted to 9 billion euro in 2024 and around to 10 billion euro expected in 2025, signify the robust economic ties between the two nations. Based on this, Netherlands occupies the 7th place in the ranking of the trade partners of Romania, both on export and import.

In the ever-evolving European landscape, the two countries are currently identifying cooperative projects between their defense industries, leveraging new frameworks supported by the European Commission, such as the Readiness 2030 Plan (ReArm Europe) and the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) Regulation. There is unexploited potential for collaboration within these sectors, and both nations are poised to maximize resources to achieve NATO’s capability targets.

A significant upcoming event, the NATO-Industry Forum set to be held in Bucharest in November 2025, serves to further enhance economic cooperation in the defense sector. This forum will create opportunities for increased engagement between transatlantic defense industries, allowing for extensive bilateral contacts.

Near-Shoring Initiatives

Further cooperation has erupted in the production industry, with Romanian and Dutch companies exploring joint ventures aimed at attracting new orders and relocating manufacturing from Asia. This “near-shoring” policy is particularly relevant in the current global and regional geopolitical and economic climate, and it promises to stimulate local economies while enhancing resilience in supply chains.

Supported by one of the largest pools of IT specialists in Central and Eastern Europe, Romania is emerging as a regional high-tech hub, with recent significant investments from the Netherlands in microchip and R&D projects underscoring the maturity of its tech ecosystem and the growing confidence of international investors.

The agri-food sector attracts strong interest from both sides, as numerous Dutch investors are already active in our country and Romania aiming to enhance the value of its high agricultural potential.

Cultural Ties as a Foundation for Cooperation

Cultural initiatives significantly complement the economic and security cooperation between Romania and the Netherlands. In September 2025, a major exhibition was inaugurated and open to the public at the H-Art Museum in Amsterdam. This exhibition features over 30 sculptures by the renowned Romanian artist Constantin Brâncuși, alongside photographs, drawings, and archival materials, all inspired by Brâncuși’s studio, a space he deemed sacred. The exhibition will remain open to the public until January 20, 2026.

The last retrospective of Brâncuși’s work in the Netherlands was held 50 years ago, and the exhibition is expected to attract over 100,000 visitors, marking a significant cultural milestone. Such cultural exchanges serve to reinforce the deep-rooted ties between the nations, showcasing shared heritage and enhancing mutual understanding.

Summarizing, the relationship between Romania and the Kingdom of the Netherlands is characterized by dynamic cooperation across economic, security, and cultural dimensions. Marking 145 years of diplomatic relations, both nations are committed to strengthening their partnership in addressing current challenges, promoting shared values, and exploring new avenues of growth. As they continue to navigate the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape, the future looks promising for the further deepening of their long-standing and flourishing ties.

The Bridge Between Our Nations

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A Conversation with H.E. Mr. Almir Šahović, Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Kingdom of the Netherlands

Diplomat Magazine had the pleasure of meeting H.E. Mr. Almir Šahović, Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Kingdom of the Netherlands and Permanent Representative to the OPCW, for an insightful discussion on the evolving relations between his country and the Netherlands. The Ambassador shared thoughtful reflections on diplomacy, economic cooperation, cultural ties, and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s European aspirations.

Speaking about the current state of relations between the two nations, Ambassador Šahović said:

“The relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Netherlands are very good and friendly. We enjoy strong political and economic ties, and the Netherlands is the seventh most important foreign investor in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We are pleased to see a growing number of Dutch companies interested in working with Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Bosnian companies starting to invest in the Netherlands.”

“Another important link between our two countries is the Bosnian and Herzegovinian diaspora. Around 60,000 people from Bosnia and Herzegovina live in the Netherlands. They serve as a true bridge between our nations — real ambassadors of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Netherlands, and of the Netherlands in Bosnia and Herzegovina.”

When asked about Bosnia and Herzegovina’s progress toward European integration, Ambassador Šahović reaffirmed that EU membership remains the country’s highest foreign policy goal.

“EU accession is the highest priority of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s foreign policy. In this context, we highly appreciate the Netherlands’ support for our European path. We are aware that the traditional Dutch approach to EU enlargement is summarized by the principle ‘strict but fair,’ and that the Netherlands sometimes places greater emphasis on the full implementation of conditions required from candidate countries than some other EU partners.

All the more, we are pleased that the Netherlands has recognized Bosnia and Herzegovina’s strong commitment to its European future. Over the past four years, we succeeded in securing Dutch support for the EU’s decision to grant Bosnia and Herzegovina candidate status, as well as for the opening of accession negotiations with our country.”

On the topic of EU-level initiatives such as border security and institutional capacity building, the Ambassador stressed Bosnia and Herzegovina’s alignment with Dutch and EU efforts:

“We strongly support the Netherlands’ participation in EU-level initiatives such as border security cooperation and institutional capacity building. These initiatives are crucial not only for EU member states but also for candidate countries, as they help strengthen overall regional stability and preparedness for eventual EU membership.”

Looking toward the future, Ambassador Šahović noted several promising areas for bilateral cooperation, highlighting culture as a growing field of exchange:

“In general, I believe there is still much potential to further intensify cooperation between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Netherlands — not only in politics and the economy, but also in the field of culture. A good example of this was the exhibition of the artwork Bird of Peace by the renowned Bosnian artist Mirza Morić, which was displayed in front of The Hague City Hall last summer. It demonstrated the great potential for cultural collaboration between our two countries.”

When discussing people-to-people connections, Ambassador Šahović underlined their importance for lasting understanding:

“People-to-people connections are essential for building understanding and practical cooperation between our two countries. As Ambassador, I strive to encourage such activities by visiting various Dutch cities and institutions. We have established particularly strong cooperation between Sarajevo and The Hague, especially involving young people.

I have also visited Maastricht, Arnhem, Nijmegen, and Groningen to promote local-level cooperation. In addition, I regularly give lectures on Bosnia and Herzegovina at different Dutch universities, helping to deepen academic and cultural ties between our nations.”

He also referred to the shared remembrance of the Srebrenica Genocide as a deeply meaningful component of bilateral understanding:

“In close cooperation with the Association of Survivors of the Srebrenica Genocide, as well as with the City of The Hague and several other cities and universities — particularly Utrecht University — we regularly organize and participate in various activities aimed at preserving the memory of and honoring the victims of the Srebrenica Genocide.

The Srebrenica Genocide forms part of our shared Bosnia and Herzegovina–Dutch history and our common memory.”

Reflecting on his tenure of more than four years in the Netherlands, the Ambassador shared highlights of his diplomatic achievements:

“Having served for over four years as Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Netherlands and Permanent Representative to the OPCW, I am proud of the results we have achieved.

Among other accomplishments, we successfully organized two official presidential visits from Bosnia and Herzegovina. As I mentioned earlier, we also secured Dutch support for the EU’s decision to grant Bosnia and Herzegovina candidate status and to open accession negotiations.

Furthermore, Bosnia and Herzegovina was, for the first time, elected as a member of the Bureau of the International Criminal Court.

I also had the honor of being elected Chairperson of the 29th Conference of the States Parties to the OPCW and was entrusted by the OPCW Member States to chair the Open-Ended Working Group on the implementation of rules governing the election of members of the Executive Council.”

Ambassador Šahović’s words reflect a vision of partnership built on dialogue, shared values, and human connection. The bridge between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Netherlands — strengthened by trade, culture, and the dynamic Bosnian community — continues to stand as an attribute of friendship, cooperation, and mutual respect.

How the BCE Doctrine Can Benefit China in Great Power Relations

By Mr. Kung Chan, founder of ANBOUND Think Tank

Great power relations typically refer to the relations between nations within the international system that wield significant influence, such as the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union. These relations, shaped by their interactions, ultimately determine the direction of the global order. In the context of de-globalization, great power relations have come to represent the dominant power structure of the current era. In contrast, multilateral partnerships, such as U.S.-EU relations and the transatlantic alliance, are also important. However, de-globalization has undermined these multilateral frameworks, particularly as they are in direct opposition to the principles of Trumpism and the stance of American conservatives, particularly the “America First” doctrine. This ideological shift exposes a clear contradiction in U.S. foreign policy.

At its core, Trumpism is not concerned with multilateral institutions like the transatlantic partnership but rather focuses on strengthening bilateral relations among great powers. This focus helps explain why Trump consistently sought to maintain favorable relations with Russia and, despite various challenges, advanced ties with China. Some observers may highlight Trump’s recent visit to the United Kingdom, but in reality, this was more about his desire for global recognition and status, and indeed a sort of “monarchical mindset”. Trump aimed to elevate himself on the world stage, seeking recognition not from multilateral organizations but from powerful nations with traditional significance, like the U.K. However, his visit could not resolve the deeper ideological rifts between the liberal and conservative factions within the Anglo-American relationship. As noted by King Charles III during a banquet, Trump’s stances on issues such as aid to Ukraine, immigration, and environmental concerns were sharply criticized. Nevertheless, in the context of Trump’s broader worldview, these issues remain secondary. The British, of course, are well aware of this tendency.

For China, navigating the evolving landscape of great power relations requires a thoughtful and strategic approach. From a geopolitical perspective, the new international relations theory called “Balance, Cooperation, Existence” (BCE) could serve as both a guiding framework and a strategic approach for it to interact with other great powers.

The “Balance” component emphasizes the need for interdependence and mutual benefits in areas such as trade, industry, and regional interests. This requires both give-and-take, ensuring that all parties stand to gain. The “Cooperation” aspect stresses the importance of regional collaboration as a foundation for broader cooperation on specific issues. Crucially, cooperation is the key to maintaining peace and facilitating competition without leading to total breakdowns in great power relations. Finally, “Existence” underscores the importance of maintaining sovereignty and independence by avoiding entangling alliances that could compromise a nation’s interests. It advocates for China to safeguard its national interests while maintaining its stature as a key player on the global stage.

The BCE theory should form the foundation of China’s approach to future great power relations. In this framework, China should present BCE as a conceptual model for international understanding, representing a geopolitical philosophy grounded in existential principles. This approach focuses on balance rather than confrontation, cooperation over isolation, and independence rather than aggression. In a world marked by ongoing tensions, China’s adoption of the BCE framework will enhance its international standing, making it a respected and recognized global force. The key to achieving this status lies in the world’s recognition of China’s legitimate place in global affairs and a willingness to engage in dialogue based on balance and cooperation.

Great power relations are inherently complex and delicate, especially for emerging powers like China. In seeking a prominent role on the global stage, it is essential for China to draw upon historical lessons, one of the most important being the need to avoid overextending. While strategic competitions are integral to great power relations, they do not necessitate all-out confrontation. Overexertion or seeking to decisively defeat rivals in a single blow is neither a sustainable nor appropriate approach in great power relations and is counterproductive to the BCE framework.

In its dealings with the global community, China will need to adopt a diplomatic language that resonates universally, clearly articulating its national position and aspirations. Only through this approach can China truly enter the realm of great power relations and assert itself as a pivotal player in shaping the global order.

Sanae Takaichi’s Ascent: Implications for Japan’s Domestic Politics and Regional Strategy

By Kung Chan, ANBOUND’s founder, and Zhou Chao, Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND. 

On October 4, 2025, Japan experienced a historic political milestone with the election of Sanae Takaichi as President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Now Japan’s first female Prime Minister, her rise marks a watershed moment in the country’s political history.

Takaichi has long been identified as a hardline conservative. Often compared to U.S. President Donald Trump, she has been dubbed “Japan’s Trump” for her unapologetically nationalist stance and populist overtones.

A close political ally of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi rose to prominence during his administration and was widely seen as a key figure within Japan’s conservative bloc. Following Abe’s assassination, she positioned herself as the ideological successor to his legacy, consolidating support across LDP factions. Her political agenda is firmly anchored in the far-right spectrum. She supports the continuation of “Abenomics,” advocating large-scale public spending and ultra-loose monetary policy. On constitutional reform, she seeks to revise Article 9 to formally recognize the Self-Defense Forces and insists on maintaining a patrilineal imperial succession, opposing the notion of a reigning empress. Her views on history and foreign policy are marked by revisionism, including denial of Japan’s wartime aggression, a staunchly pro-American orientation, vocal criticism of China, and a generally exclusionary stance toward immigration.

In the wake of her election, many observers anticipate that Takaichi will actively pursue the full implementation of her policy platform, effectively translating Abe’s ideological legacy into institutional form. While Takaichi’s leadership may introduce greater uncertainty into the Japan-China relationship, her policy choices will be shaped by significant structural constraints. A more meaningful shift may lie in Japan’s foreign policy trajectory toward an “Asian rebalancing”.

U.S.-Japan Relations: Strategic Priorities and Constraints

Managing relations with the United States will likely remain Takaichi’s foremost foreign policy priority. Japan’s strategic imperative is to safeguard its national security while expanding its economic and technological interests. This involves maintaining the security umbrella provided by the U.S.-Japan alliance, while seeking greater autonomy in diplomatic and economic affairs.

Takaichi is expected to pursue a stance that is firm yet strategically flexible. Rather than provoking open conflict with Washington, she may favor institutionalized, phased negotiations to manage differences on contentious issues such as defense cost-sharing, high-tech export controls, supply chain restructuring, and market access. Her likely approach would involve segmenting complex negotiations into smaller, manageable parts, leveraging public opinion and parliamentary dynamics to expand her room for maneuver.

Key constraints will include the unpredictability of U.S. domestic politics, especially the potential return of Trump-style leadership, and Japanese domestic concerns about over-dependence or excessive alignment with U.S. interests. Indicators of this policy direction may include the frequency of economic issues in bilateral talks, the public framing of defense negotiations, and the scope of reciprocal access gained in high-tech sectors.

Defense Policy: Between Deterrence and Industrial Strategy

Japan’s recent efforts to modernize and expand its defense capabilities are likely to continue under Takaichi, driven by both security concerns and industrial policy goals. Her administration may pursue multi-year defense budget commitments to reduce political friction, integrate defense procurement with industrial subsidies to localize supply chains, and promote civil-military fusion to boost high-tech industries such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence.

Key priorities may include enhancing anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, improving maritime and aerial intelligence systems, and strengthening reserve mobilization. She may also move to ease restrictions on arms exports, enabling greater production scale and international collaboration.

Nevertheless, significant constraints remain. Constitutional limitations, Japan’s pacifist postwar identity, fiscal sustainability, and reliance on foreign suppliers all pose barriers. The trajectory of defense policy under her leadership will likely be gradual, marked by institutional safeguards. Observables include trends in the defense budget, domestic procurement ratios, and approved arms export cases.

Taiwan Policy: Symbolism Versus Strategic Restraint

Takaichi’s longstanding pro-Taiwan stance does not necessarily portend direct confrontation with Mainland China. A more pragmatic approach may involve deepening non-military support, such as trade, civil exchanges, technological cooperation, and intelligence-sharing, while maintaining strategic ambiguity on military matters. This would allow Japan to demonstrate solidarity without crossing red lines.

Constraints here are formidable: economic retaliation from China, domestic opposition to military entanglement, and the delicate balance of alliance commitments and regional stability. Indicators to monitor include changes in exchange policies, levels of parliamentary engagement, and the nature of Japan’s involvement in crisis scenarios.

Domestic Politics and Political Longevity

Takaichi’s political survival will hinge not solely on her ideological commitments but on her capacity to deliver economic results while balancing domestic and international agendas. If she can unify the LDP through pragmatic policies that generate tangible outcomes, such as job creation, regional development, and fiscal revitalization, her tenure may well outlast Japan’s recent trend of short-lived prime ministers.

Conversely, an excessively hardline stance on controversial issues, without economic payoff, could alienate voters and provoke internal party divisions. Her likely strategy will be to incrementally advance key policies while keeping options open for retreat on high-risk issues. Variables to watch include intra-party dynamics, voting cohesion in the Diet, approval ratings, and local election results.

Japan-China Relations: Contradictions and Calculated Engagement

Takaichi’s policy stance reflects a predictable dual logic: assertiveness when domestic or alliance politics require it, and pragmatism when economic interests are at stake. China would be wise not to dismiss her as merely another hardliner. Instead, it should seek institutionalized, interest-based engagement, focusing on dialogue, technological cooperation, and shared regional challenges like climate change and economic resilience.

Yet underlying tensions, particularly historical grievances and territorial disputes, will continue to cloud the relationship. Indicators of future direction include the frequency and tenor of high-level exchanges, continuity in joint economic projects, and alignment in multilateral forums.

Toward an “Asian Rebalancing”?

Japan may increasingly pursue a recalibrated foreign policy that reduces excessive reliance on any one power and enhances its regional autonomy. This “Asian Rebalancing” does not imply a rejection of the U.S. alliance, but rather a gradual shift toward diversified diplomatic and economic engagement across Asia.

Takaichi may view regional cooperation, as with ASEAN and even China, as a way to hedge against uncertainty and assert Japan’s independent role in regional architecture. Areas of potential engagement include infrastructure, energy, climate, and technology. The extent to which this rebalancing progresses will depend on U.S. expectations, domestic political flexibility, and the broader evolution of U.S.-China competition.

Economic Focus: Abenomics Revisited

Finally, economic policy is expected to be Takaichi’s initial priority. Her first major move may be to devalue the yen, i.e., reviving the logic of Abenomics by making Japanese exports more competitive and stimulating a stock market rally. This approach, like Trump’s early economic moves, may prioritize visible, immediate impacts over complex geopolitical recalibration. It could generate short-term corporate gains and popular support, providing political capital for her broader agenda.

France’s Candidate to the ICJ: Ambassador François Alabrune on Law, Diplomacy, and the Pursuit of Justice

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The Ambassador of France to the Kingdom of the Netherlands, H.E. Mr. François Alabrune, recently spoke with Diplomat Magazine about his nomination as France’s candidate for the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In a thoughtful and engaging conversation, the seasoned diplomat reflected on the challenges facing international law, the ICJ’s evolving role, and his lifelong vocation of service to justice and diplomacy.

Ambassador Alabrune, whose distinguished career spans over three decades, is widely recognized for his legal expertise and commitment to the principles that underpin the international legal order. His candidacy for the ICJ, he explained, represents both a personal honour and a natural continuation of a career dedicated to the service of law and peace.

“I accepted the nomination as a candidate for the International Court of Justice both as an honour and as the outcome of a lifelong commitment to serving international law,” he said. “My vocation in this field took shape early in my career, having been trained by mentors with experience as judges at the ICJ, such as Gilbert Guillaume and Ronny Abraham.” “Throughout my legal and diplomatic career, I have witnessed how law contributes to peace. If elected, I would be honoured to place this experience at the service of the Court, with the aim of maintaining and strengthening its role. I will be eager to work to promote the values that underpin its legitimacy – in particular impartiality and the diversity of legal traditions – in the service of the international community.”

Reflecting on the relevance of the Court today, Ambassador Alabrune acknowledged that the international legal system is being tested by a rapidly changing global environment.

“International law is today facing challenges, in particular to its universality and the risk of a weakening of multilateralism,” he observed. “The issues brought before the Court are increasingly complex, intertwining legal, environmental, economic, and technological dimensions.”

Nevertheless, he remains confident in the ICJ’s role as a pillar of stability and legitimacy in international relations.

“Through the quality, coherence, and independence of its jurisprudence, the ICJ demonstrates that law remains the essential framework for relations between States,” he added. “By maintaining close dialogue with other international courts and UN bodies, the Court strengthens the coherence and credibility of the international legal order.”

Ambassador Alabrune’s long experience in The Hague has given him a unique vantage point on the delicate balance between law and diplomacy.

“For more than twenty years as a legal adviser and jurisconsult, I have applied international law in politically sensitive contexts,” he said. “Law is never exercised in the abstract—it must be interpreted with rigour, while taking into account the diplomatic realities that shape its implementation.” he said. “Serving as an ambassador in The Hague offers the privilege of daily dialogue with the actors of the International Court of Justice and many other actors within the multilateral system. This proximity has given me a practical understanding of how law and diplomacy interact: law sets the rules, while diplomacy creates the conditions for their elaboration and implementation.

France’s longstanding dedication to international law also finds continuity in his candidacy.

“France’s commitment to international law is reflected in its active participation in the negotiation and promotion of numerous treaties, as well as in proceedings before international courts,” he noted. “My candidacy reflects this commitment to the promotion and respect of international law, drawing on my experience, particularly as the Legal Adviser of France and later as Ambassador to the Netherlands.”

Looking toward the future, Ambassador Alabrune emphasized the moral imperative of upholding justice at a time of global uncertainty.

“In the current international context, marked by existential questions for Humanity, the need for justice is paramount,” he said. “Today, more than ever, it is essential to demonstrate determination and courage to uphold the rule of law. The growing engagement of the international community in the proceedings before the ICJ offers hope. The work of the Court deserves the support of us all.”

As France’s candidate to the International Court of Justice, Ambassador François Alabrune embodies a vision of international law rooted in principle, inclusion, and service to the common good—a vision that resonates deeply in The Hague, the city of peace and justice.

GAFG Essay Competition

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The 2025 Technology, Mind & Health Essay Competition is open to students and young thinkers to write about balancing technology and mental well-being. Submissions are due November 16, 2025, and should be sent to info@balkanyouthcooperation.com. The competition is organized by the Global Academy of Future Governance (GAFG) and the Balkan Youth Co-operation (BYC). 

President Gatti Santana Addresses the United Nations General Assembly

Arusha / The Hague, 22 October 2025 — The President of the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT), Judge Graciela Gatti Santana, presented the Mechanism’s thirteenth Annual Report to the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

At the outset, President Gatti Santana congratulated H.E. Ms. Annalena Baerbock of the Federal Republic of Germany on her election as President of the 80th session of the General Assembly. She noted that she shares the President’s vision that the United Nations must preserve its past achievements while adapting boldly to confront present and future challenges — a principle also guiding the Mechanism’s work.

The President emphasized that, with the consistent support of the General Assembly, the Mechanism and its predecessors — the International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and for Rwanda — have delivered justice, documented historical facts, and developed international legal standards and best practices. These, she said, form the foundation of today’s global accountability efforts. President Gatti Santana underlined that this legacy must be protected and that responsibly concluding the “justice cycle” remains vital. The Mechanism, she affirmed, is committed to being a partner in change — reducing costs, transferring or terminating functions no longer required, and upholding the principled application of international law.

She noted that the Mechanism continues to carry out a range of mandated tasks, including adjudicating residual judicial matters, supervising the enforcement of sentences, supporting national jurisdictions in prosecuting perpetrators of international crimes, monitoring referred cases, and managing the preservation and access to its archives and those of its predecessors. These residual functions, she stressed, are essential:

“Verdicts must not only be entered; sentences must be enforced. Reconciliation is advanced by comprehensive accountability. Protecting and ensuring access to judicially established facts is critical today due to growing and systemic revisionism and genocidal denial.”

President Gatti Santana also highlighted the Mechanism’s collaboration with other UN entities in assisting the Secretary-General with two reports requested by the Security Council under Resolution 2740 (2024), concerning the future of certain functions. She reiterated that it is for the Secretary-General to recommend, and the Council to decide, whether such functions should be transferred. Meanwhile, the Mechanism continues to align with the Council’s vision of a small, temporary institution — reducing staff and resources since 2020, adjusting its legal framework to avoid resource-intensive proceedings, and streamlining operations in the supervision of sentence enforcement.

The President underscored that the Mechanism’s efficient completion of its mandate depends on the cooperation of Member States. She pointed to the three persons still held in the United Nations Detention Unit in The Hague, as well as the five persons relocated to Niger in 2021 after acquittal or completion of their sentences — all of whom remain under the Mechanism’s care, generating significant financial costs.

In closing, President Gatti Santana reaffirmed the enduring message of the Mechanism and its predecessor tribunals:

“Possessing the power and resources to commit mass atrocities today does not insulate any individual from accountability tomorrow.”

She cautioned that the international community must not “falter in this last mile of the justice cycle and risk undoing all that has come before.” President Gatti Santana concluded by assuring the Assembly that the Mechanism stands ready to work with both the General Assembly and the Security Council to find innovative solutions to complete its mandate fairly, efficiently, and at an appropriate cost, and she expressed gratitude to Member States for their continued support.

Peace in Ukraine Through Washington and Moscow, via Budapest. Where Does Bucharest Stand?

“Peace is not decided where blood is shed, but where maps are redrawn.”


By Lieutenant General (ret) Corneliu Pivariu

For more than two and a half years, the war in Ukraine has become not only a human tragedy and a test of national resilience but also a battleground of great powers — a field where diplomacy intertwines with global economic and geopolitical interests. Throughout this period, there have been discreet attempts at dialogue between Washington and Moscow, as well as several European or regional initiatives seeking to outline the premises of a potential peace.

Increasingly, Budapest seems to emerge as a link between the two power centers. Hungary, maintaining an active channel of communication with Moscow while remaining a NATO and EU member state, is skillfully positioning itself as an informal yet pragmatic intermediary in a context where other European actors prefer firm rhetoric over direct dialogue.

General Context

Both the United States and Russia share, in the medium term, an interest in stabilizing the situation. Washington envisions a global strategic reconfiguration in which the Asia-Pacific pivot becomes a priority, requiring that efforts and resources allocated to Ukraine be rationalized. Moscow, on the other hand, seeks to consolidate its territorial gains and avoid internal exhaustion that could threaten the regime’s stability. Within this fragile balance, any credible intermediary—be it a state, organization, or leader—can play a role of varying importance.

Budapest – A Discreet Channel Between Washington and Moscow

Hungary has cultivated a unique position within the European Union: it maintains close economic and energy relations with Russia, yet participates fully in NATO structures and EU mechanisms. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been among the few European leaders to continue direct dialogue with the Kremlin while simultaneously keeping a pragmatic openness toward Washington, regardless of the administration in power.

Regarding the outcome of the negotiations that were supposed to begin shortly in Budapest[1], the most likely scenario is that they would mark a principled agreement and a formulation along the lines of: “the parties acknowledge the necessity of a negotiated solution and commit themselves to avoiding further escalation.” The front will remain relatively stable, and diplomacy could regain the initiative in place of military actions. More, however, will become clear after the Budapest round.

It is not by chance that some working diplomatic channels between East and West seem to discreetly pass through Budapest. Against the backdrop of an evident deadlock in multilateral negotiations, this seemingly peripheral capital is transforming into a balancing point for indirect Russo-American discussions about the architecture of Europe’s future order.

A Symbol of Security Guarantees: The Budapest Memorandum

Budapest also carries special historical significance. It was here, in 1994, that the Budapest Memorandum was signed — the document by which Ukraine renounced its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. The memorandum stipulated respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity—commitments gravely violated with the annexation of Crimea and later, with the 2022 invasion.

Budapest’s return to the forefront of peace discussions is thus not merely a geographical coincidence but also a symbolic reactivation of an international commitment that once seemed to guarantee regional stability—or perhaps, an irony of history itself.

The European Union – Between Declarative Solidarity and Strategic Fragmentation

The European Union as a whole is going through a period of strategic ambiguity. Although support for Ukraine remains a point of declarative consensus, there are significant differences among member states regarding the level of military involvement, the economic sustainability of aid, and perspectives on possible negotiations with Russia.

Hungary plays here a double, yet calculated, game: through its critical discourse toward Brussels, it consolidates its internal and regional position, but never leaves the European institutional framework. In reality, Budapest capitalizes on the EU’s internal contradictions to legitimize itself as a “realist voice” in a chorus of often idealistic messages.

Thus, the European Union—caught between its economic dependencies and its desire for strategic autonomy—fails to articulate a concrete peace proposal of its own (or perhaps chooses not to), leaving the initiative to others.

Washington and Moscow – Signs of a Cautious Recalibration

In both the American capital and the Kremlin, a more measured tone has become noticeable in recent months. In the United States, public opinion and Congress appear increasingly reluctant to support an open-ended military effort, while Russia seeks to achieve a “positional peace” that would legitimize its territorial gains.

Hence the renewed interest in indirect negotiation formats involving intermediary capitals. Budapest, but also Ankara and even Beijing, play subtle roles in this network of diplomatic messages and signals—where nothing is officially declared, yet everything is carefully calculated.

Bucharest – Spectator or Actor?

Romania, situated on the border of the conflict and holding major strategic interest in the stability of the Black Sea region, appears to remain more a cautious spectator than an engaged actor. Although a member of both NATO and the EU, Bucharest has not managed to build a distinct initiative or role in the European dialogue on Ukraine.

While Hungary, Turkey, and even Poland actively promote their own agendas, Romania’s absence from this diplomatic game risks becoming a constant. The lack of a coherent foreign policy strategy, compounded by internal decision-making fragmentation, limits the country’s ability to be perceived as a partner with initiative and regional vision.

In fact, the question in the subtitle is eminently rhetorical, as long as Romania’s political class remains captive to other interests and narrow perspectives.

Peace through Washington and Moscow, via Budapest, is not a metaphor but a diplomatic reality in the making.

Budapest has understood that in a world where great powers negotiate over the heads of regional actors, the one who succeeds in becoming an intermediary or catalyst gains influence—even without major military or economic power. Romania, by contrast, continues to remain within the comfortable zone of strategic conformity, without proposing its own solutions or dialogue platforms.

If peace in Ukraine is ultimately decided—one way or another—through Washington and Moscow, via Budapest, at least two legitimate questions remain for Romania: Where does Bucharest stand?; And how long will Bucharest remain merely an informed but uninvolved capital in the process that will shape the future of Eastern Europe?

Brașov, October 22, 2025

Selective Bibliography
Official Sources and Primary Documents

1. Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, signed in Budapest, 5 December 1994.
 – United Nations Treaty Collection, Depositary Notification C.N.911.1994.TREATIES-5.

2.U.S. Department of State. Press Statements and Briefings on Ukraine and Russia (2022–2025).

3. The Kremlin. Official Transcripts and Statements on the “Special Military Operation” and Peace Proposals (2022–2025).

4. European External Action Service (EEAS). EU Foreign Affairs Council 5. Conclusions on Ukraine and Security Architecture (2023–2025).

NATO. Vilnius and Washington Summit Communiqués (2023, 2024).

 Geopolitical Analyses and Think Tanks
6. Chatham House (London). “Security and Diplomacy in Post-Conflict Ukraine.” Research Paper, 2024.
7. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Negotiating with Moscow: Lessons from the Minsk and Astana Formats.” Policy Brief, 2023.
8. RAND Corporation. “Frozen Conflicts and Negotiated Settlements in Eastern Europe.” Santa Monica, 2023.
9. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “The Future of U.S.–Russia Relations: Limited Engagement under Pressure.” Washington D.C., 2024.
10. Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). “Hungary’s Strategic Hedging in the NATO–Russia Equation.” London, 2024.
11. European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). “Europe’s Divided Response to the Ukrainian War: Between Values and Realpolitik.” Brussels, 2023.
Theoretical Analyses and Reflections
12. Brzezinski, Zbigniew. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books, 1997.
13. Kissinger, Henry. World Order. New York: Penguin Press, 2014.
14. Mearsheimer, John J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton, 2021 (Updated Edition).
15. Walt, Stephen M. “Realism and Restraint in the Age of Multipolarity.” Foreign Affairs, 2023.
16. Severin, Adrian. Policentric Harmony: A New Model of Global Cooperation and Security. Bucharest, 2024.
17. Pivariu, Corneliu. Global Geopolitical Evolutions in the First Quarter of the 21st Century. Romania in This Context. Forecasts for 2050, Financial Intelligence, 2025
 Selected Analytical Articles and Media Sources
18. Financial Times. “Trump, Putin, and the New Architecture of Power: Why Budapest Matters.” October 2025.
19. Reuters. “Hungary to Ensure Putin Can Enter Country for Trump Meeting in Budapest.” October 2025.
20. France 24. “Zelensky Ready to Join Putin–Trump Summit if Invited.” October 2025.
21. Bloomberg. “EU Uneasy as Hungary Hosts Potential Trump–Putin Talks.” October 2025.
22. Diplomat Magazine (The Hague). “Regional Balances and the New European Security Format.” Issue 3/2025.

[1] According to a statement released by the White House on October 21, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced the postponement of the planned meeting in Budapest with Russian President Vladimir Putin to an unspecified later date. The statement noted that the decision was made “following ongoing diplomatic consultations and recent international developments.” (Source: White House Press Office, Statement by the President, October 21, 2025; Reuters, Associated Press, October 22, 2025.)

Four Centuries Forward: The Thai–Dutch Strategic Partnership

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By H.E. Mr. Asi Mamanee, Ambassador of Thailand to the Kingdom of the Netherlands

In 2024, Thailand and the Netherlands celebrated 420 years of diplomatic relations — one of the longest continuous partnerships between Europe and Asia. What began with 17th-century maritime trade has evolved into a multifaceted partnership spanning technology, agriculture, sustainable development, and innovation.

Today, the Netherlands remains Thailand’s largest investor from the European Union, while Thai companies increasingly use the Netherlands as their gateway to European markets. Bilateral trade between the two countries reached USD 7.4 billion (7,404.27 million) in 2024. These figures underscore the strong and growing economic interdependence between the two nations, built on practical cooperation and shared strategic interests that have deepened over time.

Connecting Two Nations

Strengthening the practical foundations of our partnership remains a top priority. Thailand and the Netherlands share a common vision to enhance connectivity and foster closer ties among our peoples, businesses, and institutions. In this spirit, we look forward to promoting greater mobility between our two nations, which will play a pivotal role in driving future exchanges — bringing government officials, entrepreneurs, researchers, and students ever closer together. Enhanced connectivity will serve as a powerful catalyst for innovation, collaboration, and enduring friendship between our two kingdoms.

During the recent Thailand–Netherlands Political Consultation held in The Hague in September 2025, both countries reaffirmed their commitment to advancing cooperation. As Thailand pursues its Ignite Thailand 2030 vision to become a regional innovation hub, the Netherlands offers complementary, world-class expertise in areas ranging from advanced manufacturing to sustainable agriculture.

Building on Proven Success

The strongest foundation of Thai–Dutch cooperation lies in areas where both countries have achieved concrete results. Dutch expertise in water management has contributed to Thai flood control systems and agricultural water efficiency. Similarly, Dutch innovations in precision agriculture, greenhouse technology, and sustainable food production address Thailand’s specific needs in agricultural productivity and climate adaptation. These collaborations demonstrate what works: clear objectives, technical expertise, and measurable outcomes.

Exploring New Frontiers

Thailand is actively working to deepen partnerships in frontier technology sectors, particularly advanced manufacturing and semiconductors. Building on its strong electronics manufacturing base, skilled workforce, and strategic location at the heart of ASEAN, Thailand stands ready to collaborate with Europe’s leading technology innovators to co-create resilient, sustainable, and future-oriented value chains.

The Netherlands hosts some of Europe’s most advanced capabilities in semiconductor equipment manufacturing, precision engineering, and photonics. Driven by the global supply chain crisis and the geopolitical push for regional resilience, Thailand aims to position itself as a reliable, strategic partner in secure regional production networks.

Collaboration is being explored in areas such as advanced semiconductor assembly, packaging and testing, photonics, and green energy technologies. The Knowledge-to-Knowledge (K2K) model — which prioritises research partnerships and talent exchange before large-scale industrial commitments — offers a pragmatic pathway for initial cooperation in these complex, high-tech fields.

Translating Policy into Action

The Royal Thai Embassy in The Hague has initiated several targeted programmes to translate high-level policy into practical cooperation:

  • Investment Showcase: In June 2025, the Embassy co-hosted a seminar on the Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) Economy in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), showcasing investment opportunities and inviting Dutch companies to partner in clean energy and circular innovation. In September 2025, the Embassy participated in the 5th Thai–Netherlands Business Forum, organised by Thailand’s Board of Investment, to highlight investment opportunities in Thailand.
  • Human Capital Development: In August 2025, the Embassy supported Thai engineering students to attend the Eindhoven Semicon Summer School, focusing on the critical development of human capital through hands-on training.
  • Technical Fact-Finding Mission: In September 2025, Dutch representatives visited Thailand’s semiconductor ecosystem. These reciprocal exchanges are vital for Dutch stakeholders to gain a deeper understanding of Thailand’s technical capabilities and to identify areas for future collaboration.

A Partnership of Mutual Interest

As Thailand and the Netherlands enter their fifth century of diplomatic relations, the partnership continues to thrive in line with shared strategic interests. Collaboration now spans a wide range of sectors, reflecting a joint understanding that sustainable partnerships rely on diversification. Success in long-established areas such as water management has built a foundation of trust and confidence — enabling both nations to explore bold new frontiers in future-defining, high-technology sectors.

The coming years will determine whether policy commitments translate into functioning partnerships. The 420-year history of Thai–Dutch relations offers a solid foundation, yet the partnership’s future relevance will depend on what both nations choose to build together today. As Thailand and the Netherlands embark on this next chapter, they do so with a blend of ambition and realism — guided by the same mutual respect, trust, and practical cooperation that have sustained their friendship for over four centuries.