By Corneliu Pivariu, CEO INGEPO Consulting, MG (two stars general – ret.)
As a result of the referendum held on December 4th, 2016 on the constitutional reform, the then prime minister – Matteo Renzi – announced his resignation next day and as of December 7th that has become effective. The referendum showed quite a heavy defeat as almost 60% of the participants voted against the reforms while for the reforms voted a little more than 40%. The rate of participation was one of the highest in Italy’s history, 65,5% of the population. Matteo Renzi announcet that in case the reforms proposed by his government will not be backed by the population he shall resign, although the opinion polls published before the referendum stressed he would fail.
Political instability is nothing new for Italy as since the end of WWII 73 governments with 42 Prime Ministers have been replaced (some of them have been holding the portfolios 2-3 times) and 10 of them are still alive.
Following Renzi’s resignation the President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, nominated Paolo Gentiloni – Foreign Minister in the outgoing government, a member of the Democratic Party lead by Renzi, to form a new cabinet. He was invested following two parliamentarian session on December 13th and 14th by 169 yes votes and 99 votes against while the difference to 315 parliamentarians abstained from vote. Altough Gentiloni was hoping to have a more substantial backing, the support he enjoyed was limited to the number the Democratic Party had previously. The opposition parties represented mainly by the Northern League (anti-EU) and Five Stars Movement want early elections in 2017 hopefully their position would be strengthened and would win.
Renzi is still the president of the Democratic Party and if he keeps his position after the party’s congress which date is to be announced soon, he will try to trigger early elections in June, 2017 (otherwise normally to be held in the summer of 2018).
The political instabillity in Italy is a proof of the worries the society of the peninsula are witnessing as it is confronted with four major problems: young generation’s serious disappointment; the economic problems; the situation of sovereign debt; immigration.
The young Italians have many reasons to be disappointed: altough generally better trained than the previous generations, many of them have inferior jobs compared to their training or are unemployed, and live in the homes where they’ve been born. These disillusions had as a result leaving the country for many of them and the rejection of participating to the political life within the main parties. If the current Italian political leadership does not secure more material and social opportunities for the young generation, enticing thus a greater and a real political committment for them, then the consequences will be visible soon. It seems that part of the young generation is already moving towards the populist movement of the former comedian Beppe Grillo – Five Stars or other extremists movements.
Migration is another phenomenon Italy is especially confronted with as more than 173 ooo people crossed the Mediterranean for entering Italy in 2016, 20 000 more than in 2015. Although so far Italy was more of an entry point to Europe for the migrants, lately they are staying longer periods of time on the Italian territory and overpopulate the reception centers. Altough Renzi government apportioned the migrants all over the country in towns and communes, the communities began protesting against new arrivals and it is quite clear they cannot absorb new immigrants indefinitely. According to certain recent sociological researches 50% of the Italians believe that the European Union is obstructing Italy in what concerns the migration management and 79% considers that EU’s migration policy is bad for Italy.
However, Italy’s biggest problem is its sovereign debt. The Italian government has to reimburse more than 211 billion euro due in 2017. Italy’s public debt reached already more than 135% of GDP. Two tof the country’s biggest banks, Monte dei Paschi di Siena (the third) and UniCredit, should draw billions of Euro for covering their unperforming loans given that the European Central Bank rejected the extension of the deadline for recapitalization. Italy fully contributes to the EU’s condition of uncertainty and instability: it is high time that the problems be professionally approached and solved decisively and seriously.
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About the author:
Corneliu Pivariu, former first deputy for military intelligence (two stars general) in the Romanian MoD, retired 2003. Member of IISS – London, alumni of Harvard – Kennedy School Executive Education and others international organizations. Founder of INGEPO Consulting, and bimonthly Bulletin, Geostrategic Pulse”. Main areas of expertise – geopolitics, intelligence and security.
