Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Two options for Zelensky

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Diplomat Magazine
Diplomat Magazinehttp://www.diplomatmagazine.eu
DIPLOMAT MAGAZINE “For diplomats, by diplomats” Reaching out the world from the European Union First diplomatic publication based in The Netherlands. Founded by members of the diplomatic corps on June 19th, 2013. "Diplomat Magazine is inspiring diplomats, civil servants and academics to contribute to a free flow of ideas through an extremely rich diplomatic life, full of exclusive events and cultural exchanges, as well as by exposing profound ideas and political debates in our printed and online editions." Dr. Mayelinne De Lara, Publisher

By Sazzad Haider

A complete defeat of Russia in Ukraine war is a utopian dream in this high-tech century. However, Ukraine and its western allies can defeat Russian only in conventional war.

But, in the history, Moscow is always far away to reach and the history repeats itself.  The possible USA led NATO invasion of Moscow in 2022 needs to involve of unthinkable lives and resources. The daily overall cost of the invasion towards Moscow will be several hundred times higher than the daily cost of Ukraine war.

According to Newsweek report, SOFREP, a media outlet said the invasion requires approximately $900 million a day. However, Ukraine has lost up to $600 billion, with $92 billion of damage to its infrastructure, according to a study released by the Kyiv School of Economics on 6 May.

The monotonous and   prolonged war can exist for several years. Russian relentless bombardment in eastern Ukraine has settled into a rhythm which resembles World War One trench warfare. The war not will only impact on Russian lives and resources, but it will damage all kind of exiting economic system all over the world and pollute the soil, air, water, seas and oceans. The greenery earth could be disappeared for several centuries. The fate of winner and looser, Moscow and Washington will be same.  Millions dead-bodies of war victims could be buried or burned in the battle fields, but , end of war, millions impeded men, women and children will walk  on the streets of  Moscow, London, Paris, Washington or elsewhere.   

In long run, Ukraine and its Western allies have to do lot of ground work to win the war. First of all, they will prevent Putin from using nuclear weapons and destruct Russian abilities to switch on the nuclear weaponries. They shall deploy infantry three times higher than Russian infantry.  All out measure is needed to push back Putin and his nominated inheritor from Kremlin before reaching Moscow. In this objective the Westerner must pouring fuel into Russian internal conflict to decentralize Moscow’s power-centre and ruin the Russian economy. Then they find a western loyalist Tsar instead of Putin. New Tsar will be a peace campaigner and could step back from war. The Tsar could sign western architected peace agreement. The clauses of this agreement can be copied from the clause of Versailles treaty, was drafted at the Paris Peace Conference in the spring of 1919 and ended World War I.

Since the Russian invasion, every day and every hour Ukraine has lost its land, resources and blood. Influx of Ukrainian refugees have become higher and higher in different European countries. 

Every day Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has cried for more western weapons and for imposing extensive sanction on Russia.  Since the invasion, the USA led NATO allies has given him endless sophisticated arms and ammunitions, but reality is often disappointing as yet, he did not got any breakthrough to stop Russian offensive. Russia already occupied eastern Ukraine and continuing indiscriminate missile strikes on different Ukrainian cities including Kiev.   Russia has blocked Ukrainian grain to export. It seems that Ukraine is unable to win the war against Russia without USA led NATO’s full-fledged involvement.   

Former U.S. secretary of state Henry A. Kissinger said recently at a conference at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia to help end the invasion as a vast majority of Ukrainians are against the war.

He also urged the United States and the West to not seek an embarrassing defeat for Russia in Ukraine, warning it could worsen Europe’s long-term stability.

If USA led NOTO allies avoid direct war against Russian,

Volodymyr Zelensky has two options. First, He may continue the war against Russia with the support of arms-ammunitions from western allies. Another option is to move for peace negotiation instead of seeking western military aides. He will win a great achievement from peace table if Russia retreats from the eastern Ukraine. But the Russian point of view, this would be absurd concession. So, Volodymyr Zelensky may set his mind to grant full autonomy for Russian spoken population in eastern Ukraine.  Zelensky will be winner in this peace battle if he up to keep the Ukrainian sovereignty. 

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