Access to Seeds Index shows seed industry making slow progress in key regions, including Africa
Thailand’s East-West Seed leads the way, followed by Syngenta and Bayer
Lack of crop diversity a major constraint; hybrid seed dominates while legumes largely ignored
Amsterdam, the Netherlands – Global seed companies are adapting their products to combat the impact of climate change and address nutrition needs. But limited access to quality seed in many emerging economies persists, with the global seed industry reaching just 10% of the world’s smallholder farmers, according to a study.
The Access to Seeds Index 2019 – Global Seed Companies, published by the Amsterdam-based Access to Seeds Foundation, evaluates the activities of the 13 leading global seed companies to shine a light on where the industry can do more to raise smallholder farmer productivity, improve nutrition and mitigate the effects of climate change through the development and dissemination of quality seed.
The research shows that sales by the 13 global seed companies only reached around 47 million of the world’s 500 million smallholder farmers in 2017, and most investment went to a small number of countries, mostly in South and Southeast Asia. In these regions, global companies invest heavily in local seed business activities: 12 of them in breeding and 12 in production. In contrast, such activites are rare in Western and Central Africa, with only two companies investing in local breeding and one in production.
“Although the industry is making advances in developing more nutritious and climate-resilient varieties, it’s clear that more needs to be done,” said Ido Verhagen, executive director of the Access to Seeds Index. “Material changes won’t be possible without reaching a greater percentage of smallholder farmers, who account for the lion’s share – 80% – of global food production.”
Shaping business models around the needs of smallholder farmers can be profitable, as shown by East-West Seed, a Thailand-based company that tops the index thanks to a strong performance across all areas assessed. It has a unique smallholder-centric approach and a customer base made up almost entirely of smallholders (98%). Switzerland’s Syngenta and Germany’s Bayer are virtually tied in second and third place.
Reaching more smallholder farmers and directing investment to other geographies are critical to tackle rising malnourishment.[1] The number of people suffering from hunger rose from 784 million in 2014 to nearly 821 million in 2017, in part because of a lack of access to nutritious food. However, only six of the 13 global seed companies state that nutritional value is a priority for their breeding programs. Although this is higher than the four companies identified in 2016, when the first Access to Seeds Index was published, progress is slow.
The importance of developing improved varieties of seed, offering better nutritional value and supporting crop diversity is echoed in a recent report by the EAT–Lancet Commission.[2] The global seed industry can do more to address this need for diversification by supplying a larger number of crops and varieties, including legumes and local crops, which are currently neglected.
The index also reveals a sharper focus on climate change. Of the 13 companies evaluated, 12 emphasize that increased yields and higher tolerance to climate and weather risks are essential when breeding. This is reflected in increased breeding for climate-resilient field crops and vegetable varieties since 2016.
By broadening their offering, including the provision of farmer training and other services such as weather-based crop insurance, seed companies have found new ways to help farmers adapt to changing climatic conditions. Eight companies are now integrating sustainability strategies at the corporate level, compared to three in 2016.
The Access to Seeds Index 2019 – Global Seed Companies is one of the first Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) benchmarks published by the World Benchmarking Alliance. The alliance was launched in September 2018 during the UN General Assembly in New York. The Access to Seeds Index was established with support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Government of the Netherlands. The global index is complemented by regional indexes that provide in-depth analysis of South and Southeast Asia, Eastern and Southern Africa, and Western and Central Africa.
“The private sector is essential for achieving food and nutrition security, one of the major challenges outlined by the SDGs. With the world’s population rising – and hunger with it – amid growing concerns around the environmental impact of crop production, the role of the global seed industry remains crucial if Zero Hunger (SDG 2) is to be achieved by 2030,” said Verhagen.
Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mr. Mark Rutte showing Dr. Dilruba Nastrin’s article in Diplomat Magazine to her husband the former Ambassador of Bangladesh to The Netherlands H.E. Sheik Mohammed Belal now Managing Director of the Common Funds for Commodities. Also in the picture the Ambassador of Korea, H.E. Mr. Yun Young Lee.
On August 4, 2020, two strong explosions at the Port of Beirut devastated central parts of the city. The blast resulted in more than 150 fatalities and 6000 injuries. Extensive infrastructural damage has left an estimated 300,000 people homeless and many health facilities, including hospitals, inoperable. Several humanitarian organizations have mobilized quickly to respond to the needs of those most affected.
This catastrophe comes on the heels of several multi-faceted crises facing the country, including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which had already put Lebanon’s health system, social services, and economy under severe strain. Today, more than 50% of the population is unemployed, a third of businesses have shuttered and many people are food insecure.
At the time of the outbreak, the country was managing civil unrest, major economic and financial crises, and hosting over a million refugees displaced by conflicts in the region. All of these crises have had a detrimental effect on Lebanon and have made access to food, education, health care, jobs and housing almost impossible.
We witnessed with amazement and bitterness the outcome of the vote that the Cyprus Parliament has reserved for CETA, the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement, which has failed the ratification process in your country.
While respecting the choices made by the majority of your deputies, and keeping intact the esteem and friendship that binds us to your country, we feel we must invite all of you to reflect more deeply on the reasons that led to this outcome, and on its consequences for all businesses, both Cypriot and European.
According to the data recovered by our Italian Think Tank Imprese del Sud, there are 40 companies currently trading with Canada in Cyprus: the value of Cypriot exports to Canada is 41 million euros and 12 million euros is the value of Cyprus imports from Canada. A very favorable trade balance for Cyprus, which without CETA could risk to jump.
We would also like to highlight the paradox that has led some political forces not to ratify CETA after it was approved in Europe, based on fake news that unfortunately is also widespread in Italy, and which involves the protection of the agricultural products of our countries. We remind you that without this agreement even the prestigious Cypriot cheese “halloumi” will not be protected: without the obligations imposed by CETA, Canadians will be able to produce this cheese using the Cypriot symbols and flags in the packaging. And the same would happen for Italian and European products.
Another fundamental aspect to highlight is that CETA wasn’t just meant to agri-food sector, but for a wide range of interests: public procurement, protection of trademarks and patents, the liberal professions, just to give a few examples.
With this open letter, therefore, we are now calling on the Cypriot business and political forces that have understood the opportunities of CETA, but also the whole of Europe, to activate to save the trade agreement signed with Canada. This agreement, approved in 2017, has already produced great results in terms of exports for European countries, strengthening the interests of producers.
From our point of view, in order to save this treaty, if necessary, the possibility of excluding from the agreement the part relating to the agri-food sector, or at least the aspects of it considered most critical by opponents of CETA, could be considered.
Especially in a complicated period like this, where companies are “hungry for a revival”, we cannot afford to blow up such a deep and articulated free trade agreement because of the ostracism spread by one side of the economy. We are sorry for the many farmers who have understood the advantages of CETA, but if they are unable to influence their colleagues and the policy of prejudice, we might as well consider suspending the agreement in the agri-foodstuffs part and safeguarding all the opportunities created for manufacturing and numerous other sectors that boast excellence of Made in Italy to be valued in North America and throughout the world.
A greeting and a hug to all of you, in the hope of finding you at our side to continue to grow together and take advantage of the best opportunities that the world offers us.
About the author
Sergio Passariello – Ceo di Euromed International Trade e fondatore del Think Tank “Imprese del Sud”.
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Main picture: Sergio Passariello. “foto tratta dall’Agenzia stampa Adnkronos”
THE HAGUE, Netherlands – 8 July 2020 – The Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland has contributed a further £100,000 to a special Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) Trust Fund to support the project to upgrade the current OPCW Laboratory and Equipment Store. This project will result in the construction of a new facility, the OPCW Centre for Chemistry and Technology (“ChemTech Centre”).
The contribution was formalised during a ceremony between OPCW Director-General, H.E. Mr Fernando Arias, and the Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the OPCW, H.E. Ambassador Peter Wilson, which was held at OPCW Headquarters in The Hague.
Ambassador Wilson remarked: “I am delighted that the UK is supporting this flagship project of the OPCW for the second year running with a contribution to help fund the project management team. The team’s work is vital to ensuring that the new ChemTech Centre enhances the OPCW’s ability to rid the world of chemical weapons.”
The Director-General expressed: “I thank the Government of the United Kingdom for this second contribution to the new OPCW Centre for Chemistry and Technology that will further build the capabilities of our Member States to achieve a world free of chemical weapons. The continued commitment of OPCW Member States to this important project during these unprecedented times is especially meaningful.”
Director-General Arias appealed to all OPCW Member States in a position to make voluntary contributions to do so. He further emphasised the important role the new ChemTech Centre will play in strengthening the OPCW’s ability to address chemical weapon threats and enhance capacity building activities. He highlighted that “all contributions, regardless of size, are greatly appreciated”.
So far, forty Member States and the European Union have contributed or pledged to contribute financially to the ChemTech Centre project, and a considerable amount has been raised to date.
Le 9 juillet 2020, le Ministre des Affaires étrangères et de la Défense du Royaume de Belgique, S.E. Philippe Goffin, s’est rendu à la Cour pénale internationale (« CPI » ou « la Cour ») pour rencontrer le Président de la Cour, le juge Chile Eboe-Osuji et le Procureur Fatou Bensouda.
« La Belgique réitère son soutien indéfectible à la Cour pénale internationale », a déclaré le Ministre Philippe Goffin. « En tant qu’institution indépendante et impartiale, la Cour joue un rôle indispensable dans la lutte contre l’impunité. En période de mesures prises contre la Cour, nous souhaitons souligner notre ferme engagement à préserver l’intégrité et l’indépendance de la Cour et de ses représentants », a-t-il ajouté.
Le Président de la CPI, le juge Chile Eboe-Osuji a remercié le Ministre Goffin pour le soutien continu de la Belgique à la CPI. « La Cour apprécie profondément le soutien solide et de longue date de la Belgique resté indéfectible à la Cour pénale internationale, qui est un pilier essentiel de l’ordre international permanent visant à garantir la responsabilité pour les crimes les plus graves, à contribuer à leur prévention et à rendre justice aux victimes, »a dit le Président de la CPI juge Eboe-Osuji. « Cet appui est plus critique que jamais alors que la Cour est confrontée à des attaques sans précédent pour avoir exercé son mandat de justice, au nom des 123 États parties au Statut de Rome. »
Le Procureur de la CPI, Fatou Bensouda, a exprimé sa sincère appréciation pour le soutien solide et de principe de la Belgique au travail indépendant et au mandat de son Bureau, y compris dans le cadre de l’Assemblée des États parties et de ses déclarations devant le Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies. « Depuis sa ratification du Statut de Rome il y a plus de deux décennies, la Belgique a toujours soutenu la CPI en paroles et en actes, et nous sommes reconnaissants de cet engagement sincère en faveur de la justice pénale internationale », a déclaré le Procureur lors de la réunion.
« La CPI, en tant que pilier central d’un ordre international fondé sur des règles, doit disposer de l’espace nécessaire pour s’acquitter de son mandat crucial. Il y a une responsabilité partagée de veiller à ce que nous ne décevions pas les victimes de crimes d’atrocité qui considèrent la CPI comme un phare d’espoir où la justice est autrement restée silencieuse – un espoir que le calcul froid de la politique internationale ne les abandonne pas, ou pire, sape les valeurs partagées de l’humanité et son aspiration commune à la paix, à la stabilité et à l’étreinte protectrice du droit contre les crimes les plus graves du monde. » Le Procureur Bensouda a promis de poursuivre une coopération étroite avec le Royaume de Belgique au service du Statut de Rome.
La Belgique a signé le Statut de Rome – le traité fondateur de la Cour – le 10 septembre 1998 et a déposé son instrument de ratification du Statut le 28 juin 2000. Cette visite du Ministre Goffin à la CPI témoigne du soutien que la Belgique apporte à la Cour et des efforts communs déployés pour lutter contre l’impunité des responsables des crimes les plus graves qui touchent l’ensemble de la communauté internationale.
Premier Laschet and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis – Picture by NRW, Ralph Sondermann.
Monday, 3 August 2020, Athens, Hellenic Republic: North Rhine-Westphalia’s Premier Armin Laschet and the Minister for Children, Family, Refugees and Integration, Dr. Joachim Stamp, held political talks in Greece with, among others, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias.
The intensive bilateral exchange with the Greek government is a focal point of the Prime Minister’s several-day trip to Greece. In addition, Premier Laschet was there for a personal impression of the situation on the ground in the refugee camps on the Greek island of Lesbos.
After an exchange with the Deputy Minister for Migration, Giorgos Koumoutsakos, Premier Laschet met the Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis for a four-eye discussion at the Prime Minister’s Office. Both had last met in Berlin back on 9 March 2020 and agreed to continue the exchange. Both continued the bilateral talks during a subsequent discussion in a larger circle with the delegation and a joint luncheon at the invitation of the Prime Minister.
The topics of the exchange were bilateral relations, challenges posed by the Corona pandemic, energy system transformation in Greece and Germany, the refugee situation on the Greek islands, European migration policy, the protection of Europe’s external borders and possible support from North Rhine-Westphalia.
Afterwards, Premier Laschet and Minister Dr. Stamp met with Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias in the context of a further bilateral meeting.
H.E. Ms. Päivi Kaukoranta, Ambassador of Finland and the Permanent Representative of Finland to the OPCW.
THE HAGUE, Netherlands – 13 July 2020 – The Government of Finland has made two contributions totalling €200,000 to support a number of major projects and activities of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).
A contribution of approximately €100,000 will support the activities of the Trust Fund for Syria Missions at the OPCW. The Trust Fund for Syria Missions supports the Organisation’s missions and contingency operations related to the Syrian Arab Republic including the work of the Declaration Assessment Team (DAT), the Fact-Finding Mission (FFM), and the Investigation and Identification Team (IIT). Another contribution of €100,000 will be made to the OPCW Trust Fund to support the project to upgrade the current OPCW Laboratory and Equipment Store through the construction of a new Centre for Chemistry and Technology (“ChemTech Centre”).
The contribution was formalised during a ceremony between OPCW Director-General, H.E. Mr Fernando Arias, and the Permanent Representative of Finland, H.E. Ambassador Päivi Marjaana Kaukoranta, which was held at OPCW Headquarters in The Hague.
Ambassador Kaukoranta remarked: “Finland’s contribution to the OPCW Trust Fund for Syria Missions indicates our steadfast support for the professional work of the Technical Secretariat and the Investigation and Identification Team in particular. In order to achieve the aims of the Chemical Weapons Convention, it is essential to maintain and develop the capabilities of the OPCW and the national capacities of the States Parties. For that purpose, we are proud to also contribute to the new OPCW Centre for Chemistry and Technology.”
The Director-General expressed: “I thank the Government of Finland for these major contributions to the new OPCW ChemTech Centre and to the Trust Fund for Syria Missions. Both will further build the capabilities of our Member States to achieve a world free of chemical weapons.”
Director-General Arias appealed to all OPCW Member States in a position to make voluntary contributions to do so. He further emphasised the important role the new ChemTech Centre will play in strengthening the OPCW’s ability to address chemical weapon threats and enhance capacity building activities. He highlighted that “all contributions, regardless of size, are greatly appreciated”.
So far, forty-three Member States and the European Union have contributed or pledged to contribute financially to the ChemTech Centre project, and a considerable amount has been raised to date.
The Beirut explosion left hundreds of thousands in need of shelter and aid. Photo: IOM/Gerard Ossepian
Beirut – The International Organization for Migration (IOM) is mobilizing to respond to the urgent needs of large sections of Beirut’s population who remain homeless after Tuesday’s catastrophic explosion in Lebanon, a country already gravely affected by dual COVID-19 and economic crises.
“IOM expresses its full solidarity with the people of Beirut – among them many migrants and refugees – who are grappling with the devastation,” said IOM’s Director General António Vitorino.
“Our staff remained on the job supporting those needing help and showing tremendous strength in the face of adversity, even as they struggled to care for their loved ones and experienced damage to their own homes,” he continued.
On the evening of the blast, IOM team members ensured the departure of refugees scheduled for resettlement despite the chaotic situation. Between Tuesday and Wednesday evening, more than 50 refugees departed from Beirut’s airport with the assistance of IOM staff.
The effects of the explosion and destruction of the port have left hundreds of thousands of people in need of urgent medical supplies and primary healthcare, food, shelter, psychosocial support and water, hygiene and sanitation support.
IOM is now working alongside UN partners to conduct a rapid assessment to further understand the magnitude of the damage and the specific needs of the most vulnerable people – including Lebanese citizens, migrants and refugees.
While the impacts of the explosion on Lebanon’s estimated 400,000 labour migrants and approximately 1.5 million refugees are yet to be seen, those already living in precarious situations will certainly be at greater risk.
Prior to the explosion, the economic and COVID-19 crises had pushed many migrant workers into unemployment, poverty and homelessness.
“Before Tuesday’s tragedy, we were already extremely concerned about migrant workers who had lost their jobs and were left destitute on the street amid the pandemic.
Now more than ever we must guarantee the health, safety and security of Lebanon’s most vulnerable people. Incorporating the needs of migrants and refugees in broader emergency response plans is crucial as we begin to respond,” continued Vitorino.
In an initial assessment completed in July, IOM and partners found that 32 per cent of migrants reported experiencing threats of abuse, violence, exploitation and trafficking. A further 77 per cent reported having no source of income – many of whom have lost their jobs since the start of the economic crisis in October 2019 and COVID-19 lockdowns.
An estimated 10,000 migrants had also made requests to return to their countries of origin before the blast. IOM is committed to organizing voluntary returns for these people – particularly those most severely impacted by the explosion – amid COVID-19 related movement restrictions.
Resettlement operations from Lebanon had only recently restarted after a three-month temporary hold due to COVID-19. Another 375 are scheduled to depart from Lebanon this month; a total of 3,000 refugees are in the current pipeline for resettlement this year.
IOM continues to work together with partners to support the people of Lebanon, and the migrants and refugees hosted throughout the country, to meet their most immediate and longer-term needs.
For more information, please contact: Angela Wells, IOM Public Information Officer in Geneva, Email: awells@iom.int, Phone: +41 79 403 50365 or Alisar Bey of IOM Lebanon, Phone: +96170993304 or +96171784818, Email: balisar@iom.int
Published by IOM 8/7/2020 https://www.iom.int/news/iom-mobilizes-meet-needs-families-made-homeless-beirut-blast
Motto:“As we see the way of the world and as both we and you are aware of it, the law is concerned only with those ones who are equally powerful. As it is, the powerful ones are acting in accordance with what they can do while the weak ones are suffering for what is in store for them” – Thucydides, some 2,500 years ago
By Corneliu Pivariu.
A question that arises on each occasion when unexpected challenges confront a community, a country and now an entire planet. The world is in the midst of a deep existential crisis triggered imperceptibly when the bipolar world ceased to exist and the march of globalisation advanced, once that the political class has declined worldwide and it is no longer capable at finding the most appropriate solutions for the future evolution of mankind (at least in what it demonstrated since some time, and notably now).
Overall considerations
Confused by the thechnological and informational burst, most of the mankind neglected nature and its laws and, even more, man became their most distructive element while environmentalism is an insignificant factor, unable to essentially eliminate or diminish the wrongdoings man wrought to nature with irreparable consequences even for his own future. Man goes on behaving in ways that disregard the natural equilibriums and the intensifying imbalances of the human society contribute greatly to the – unfortunate I would say – evolution of the human society now and at least on a short and medium term.
What will the future look like? Just like we devise it or as an old Romanian saying goes “your sleep depends on the way you turn down your bed”. However, most of the world’s political class is willing to sleep in a bed turned down by others (be them other states or other transnational entities), as the political class has no meaningful solutions to the current situation, at least at this point.
The struggle for the world’s supremacy is unfolding in a quite new way since no viable solutions for new global geopolitical balances were found and the formulas that were tried proved to be unviable after the bipolar world vanished and the world became, for a short period, unipolar under the US leadership.
On this background and after the emergence of the pandemic caused by COVID-19 (the virus code-named SARS2-COV was anyway heralded at least since 2017) it has become clearer that, beside the state players represented by states, other powers with global geopolitical interests, too, operate, some of them much more powerful than numerous states, and which, due to the present international architecture, are not internationally represented and therefore they cannot act openly for promoting their specific interests.
In fact, their movements were visible already in the second half of the XXth century when the big oil corporations made their presence felt, then that of the armament industry corporations, and, during the last decades, the medical and pharmaceutical corporations (known generically as Big Pharma) as well as the corporations of the information field, the great social platforms, which won already important international positions although unrecognized by the current international architecture where the evolution of the human society is discussed, negotiated and, sometimes, decided.
While more time will elapse from the outburst of COVID-19 pandemic as well as from any other ample phenomenon, not only the opposing data are accumulating but also those data which are following and which are to outline in a not too far a future the reality about this pandemic. I will not insist on this subject but it’s more and more obvious that this global milestone will have important efects on the global geopolitical evolution directly impacting the economy (the gap between rich and poor will unfortunately widen, the concentration of capital will increase and the middle class will weaken).
Regretfully, in tandem with these political and economic aspects, an ampler campaign is under way for minimising the role of the educational process, for infringing man’s fundamental rights and freedoms, for denying the family’s role and importance, for increasing the frictions between social classes and cathegories to the promotion of hatred (from the old dispute between workers and intelectuals to that between young and old or between salarymen and pensioners, etc), denying the importance of human knowledge of the past and even the hatred for the dead. “Who could have ever imagined that the statues of Christopher Columbus, Cervantes or Voltaire would be destroyed or desecrated? In some areas of the globe, the current hatred covers the past as well (a past which nobody can change, be it good or bad!), today’s people hate the people of yore… who nevertheless created, invented, discovered, left enduring works. The contemporaries’ struggle with the statues is a token of intelecual poverty, of lack of culture, of definite infantilism, of loosing the clear judgement„[1].
The enhanced tehnological development of the last decades, especially in the field of information in tandem with AI will not be, after the pandemic, as spectacular as it is estimated (nothing will be like before) but it will be induced in particular by the technological developments, 5G and 6G, Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the uncontrolled actions of the human factor on the environment followed by major cataclisms. Let us not forget that the evolution of social conscience is always slower than the progress of science and technology and history proves that at least until now, all new scientific discoveries were initially applied in the military field – a destructive one, aimed at achieving certain political and military goals and only after that adapted for the civilian field.
As professor Klaus Schwab said during an on-line confernece dedicated to preparing the 2021 WEF at Davos, we need a Great Reset of capitalism.
In fact it is about using the opportunities offered by COVID-19 pandemic for more ambitious global changes than those promoted by the EU through Green New Deal. Or, to say it more bluntly, by using the pretext of making the world more „equitable”[2] we speak about a new Cold War between China and the US in which all the other world’s states take part. A brief analysis underscores the following probable developments:
China
COVID-19 pandemic affects the global geopolitical evolutions which are in a close interdependence with the political interests of certain great state actors as well as with the important influences and interests the non-state actors with great economic power want to promote. China is in a position to obtain a unique role globally, she has the capacity of becoming the sole world superpower at a time when the US relinquished it and, probably, at least for a decade will not recover the world weight it had at the end of the XXth century. Nevertheless, the latter has a very great military power, technological advances (yet in the field of AI China seeks to reach the US level in 2025 and to become world leader in 2030) and political influence that China outweighs only partially. The US have still a great financial and economic power as long as the dollar will be a reference currency globally.
China might take the advantage granted by the political system of a sole world leadership and take the initiative of adopting certain measures for the evolution of the global geopolitical situation as the Western democracies and the US are extremely slow in the decision-making process.
On this background, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013 expanded and 138 states and 30 international organizations joined it so far. Even if the project will slow down for a period due to COVID-19, the pandemic created new opportunities for China and, within this framework, BRI might move the center of gravity of the international trade (and probably of the financial system) from the US to China.
Strengthening the positions achieved in Africa and especially in the Middle East may facilitate China’s attaining the role of sole super power. If China succedes in replacing “en doceur” Russia and Iran in Syria in the process of economic recovery, Beijing will gain an extremely favourable position not only for the Mediterranean basin but also for Europe.
It is clear that China seeks to become a dominant power globally but should take into account the mistakes of all previous „empires”, as the way it acted in Hong Kong is strongly criticized as it is the treatment of the Uyghur minority, projects and major investments in countries where repayment of due sums to Beijing are long delayed. It should take into account as well the specific problems it is confronted with domestically and which are the greatest danger for achieving and maintaining global supremacy.
I think Beijing is convinced since a long time that it has no everlasting friends or allies in its global plans, but provisional allies only for certain specific objectives when their interests are consistent. In all likelihood, the said provisional partners are convinced of all these except they will not dispose of China’s economic, financial, political and military leverages.
The USA
The domestic events triggered in the spring of 2020 in the US caused by the emotion that followed the tragic death of George Floyd and which was amplifyed by media brought to the forefront the Black Lives Mater movement (BLM), which emerged several years earlier and determined great social upheavals in the country. Apart from the fact that those events prove the existence of certain social and political problems as well as economic inequalities which were not appropriately addressed by the American political class during the last decades, we are certainly witnessing a political movement of the Democrats for diminishing Donald Trump’s chances of winning a new mandate in the November 2020 presidential elections.
COVID-19 pandemic overlaps the US domestic events and represents the most serious challenge for the world international order lead by the US, a role president Trump pulled out to a secondary position through his slogan “America first”.
A report of the Council on Foreingn Relations[3] stated that the United States should focus on improving domestic policy and economic competitiveness if it wants to play an active role on the international arena.
To that purpose, The US should capitalize on its relations with Canada and Mexico, to expand a much more active cooperation with its allies, to develop the partnership with Europe, to improve its relations with India, to invest in the international institutions seeking a track for resuming the relations with Russia and focussing less on the Middle East and more on Asia.
The unavoidable and expanding competition with China should be certainly placed at the center of the American foreign policy in its search for a new world order. What will be the decision or the answer of the American political class we will see after the November 2020 elections. Although the Democrats are presenting Joe Biden as a winner by far, I do not think Donald Trump is already defeated. Even if he wins, president Trump will be further confronted with a fierce domestic opposition which will hinder his actions abroad for resuming the role of the world’s leader in the competition with China.
The European Union (EU)
The EU project emerged 70 years ago in order to solve the intra-European problems, particularly for securing peace and reconciliation. The evolutions that followed turned the EU in an attractive model as the stability and prosperity it enjoyed was backed by the political and military alliance with the US and NATO’s umbrella.
Besides, the European Union is an absolute necessity since no European country, be it Germany, Great Britain or France can not at present, and much less in the future, deal with giants such as China, the US, India, Russia.
That was the logic of the willing assembly of the European states in a union. Except that once it took shape, the “intelligentsia” from Brussels lived in another, illusory, world, distanced from the geopolitical reality and seemed to focus on economy, finance and utopias. They forgot or disregarded Russia’s continuous and aggressive pressure, China’s new aggression and the forceful resuming of the Islamic conquest. Furthermore, during the last 12 years, the EU went through three major crises, the financial one, the euro crisis and then the migration from the Middle East and Africa with adverse consequences to which BREXIT should be added.
At the moment, the EU goes through the crisis caused by COVID-19, which – probably too optimistic- the Vice-President in charge of co-ordinating the external action and security policy, Joseph Borrell, considers it “as a great accelerator of history”[4]. Borrell pleads for a common foreign policy of the EU whereby investments sould be made not only politically but also financially. In fact, the European foreign policy is almost non-existent and Borell insists on a EU which pursues its own interests and values and avoids joining sides with one or another of the great players who intends to control the globalised world. It sounds great in theory but there is no practical sign that the EU-China meeting in the 2020 fall, which is to be held in Leipzig, will witness notable events to that purpose although the first bilateral agreement was approved recently[5] between the two sides.
The declaration of the President of the European Council, Ursula von der Leyen, made on that occasion seems more interesting to me: “The Covid-19 pandemic and certain major bilateral and multilateral challenges show that the EU-China Partnership is essential, whether it’s trade, climate, technology or defending multilateralism. Yet in order that our relationship develop further, it should be based even more on rules and reciprocity so that it ensures perfectly fair rules of the game”.
Democracy and the respect for human rights are at risk and the best example is age discrimination (ageism).
Although the European Commissioner for Equality – the Maltese Helena Dalli stressed in March 2020 that: “Equality and non-discrimination are human rights’ fundamental principles which govern our Union as well. No crisis allows us get estranged from these principles… There is no place for ageism in the EU…COVID-19 crisis revealed discriminating attitudes on elderly people…The European Commission is engaged in respecting all the people’s rights including those of the older Europeans all along the current crisis and that no one will be left behind… That includes the lucrative activity, social and mobility measures at the EU level”[6].
Unfortunately, not everywhere in the EU this statement was taken into account. In Romania, people over 65 were almost totally sequestered in their households during the state of emergency and were allowed 2 hours only and later 3 hours a day to go outside for supplies or other necessities. We mention here the statements of the Dutch Mark Rutte who proposes a euthanasia law for healthy 75s who feel their lives are complete[7].
Therefore we should pay great attention to which way COVID-19 accelerates the history! At this historic stage the EU is totally dependent of the Brussels thick bureaucracy and will not be able to respond properly to the great challenges it is confronted with.
Germany
“The problem of Germany is that it is too big for Europe but too small for the world”, said Henry Kissinger, while Russia, which is both European and Asian power without being dominant in either of the continents seeks to play a prevailing role worldwide.
Maybe this is one of the reasons for which in the course of history the two countries cooperated closely (see the secret “Reinsurance” Treaty concluded between Germany and Russia in 1887). Let us not believe that if Germany opposed recently Russia’s re-joining G7, the Russian-German cooperation goes through critical moments.
After WWII, Germany’s evolution has been marked by certain favourable moments such as The Marshall Plan, the reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall (which was strongly backed by the US on the background of a weakened Soviet Union even if France and Great Britain were reluctant), the EU’s expansion to the East and the creation of euro.
On this background and especially after Donald Trump became president, it was obvious that Germany adopted a strategic repositioning with regard to the US which is seen by the German foreign minister Heiko Mass as a repositioning of the entire Europe.
With reference to the way Berlin will reposition Germany with regard to Russia, China, Eastern Europe and the trans Atlantic relations the conclusions of professor Carlo Masala[8], after Chancellor Angela Merkel delivered a speech at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation on May 27th, 2020 are interesting. The first one is that Berlin does not want to adopt a tough line in its relations with China and stressed that the EU has a strategic interest in this nrelationship and that it will be a priority for the German government.
Secondly, for Germany its relationship with Russia takes precedence over the the relations with the Eastern Europe. And thirdly, there is a fracture in the trans-Atlantic relations even if Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that Europe’s most important partnership is with the United States. We notice that the relationship with the US was „degraded” from the “most important friend outside the EU” – as the political manifesto of the CDU of 2017 states – to that of „partner”. The actual status of the relations between Germany and the US has been illustrated recently by Washington’s decision of withdrawing 11,900 military from Germany (as a result of Berlin’s refusal to increase the military spending to 2% of GDP) who will be relocated partly in Italy and Belgium, others will be returned to the US (Poland offered to accomodate these trops but the US probably does not want to further sensitize Russia with such a decision).
While Russia and China have presidents who provide stability on a long term in their foreign policy, Chancellor Merkel is about to step down in August 2020. Her successor, no matter who will be, doesn’t seem to dispose of a comparable political stature to Merkel’s or to other competitors.
Russia
After the 25th June – 1st of July 2020 referendum when 78.56% of participants voted “Yes”, president Vladimir Putin made sure he may remain president until 2036. If until 2010 Moscow sought to be at least equal to Washington worldwide, circumstances have changed as the Kremlin is aware of the shifts occuring and will manifest at the international level.
A document of the well-known Valdai organisation stresses the global geopolitical dangers in 2020: the risk that the US and China severe the cooperation considering that the two countries represent 40% of the global GDP; resuming another type of Cold War which will fundamentally change the economic international relations; the decline of the economic integration; Artificial Intelligence (AI) will become a new line of geopolitical competition; rise of populist movements; citizens’ profound discontent as a result of their disapproval of the way the governments deal with the economic and social challenges and that led to protests worldwide and weakened the governments’ ability to adopt appropriate measures.
The challenges, cathegorized in four chapters are considered to be: Geopolitical/economic (the exacerbation of economic confrontations, the protectionism in trade and investment fields, the downturn of the great powers); environmental (global warming, the destruction of natural ecosystems, the water crisis); tehnological (cyber-attacks on infrastructure and financial institutions, losing private life); social (polarization of domestic policy, social stratification, loss of confidence in media outlets, the dominance of fake news).
Although Russia appears currently, at a first sight, at a certain advantage, it is confronted with two important problems: the demographic decline and the collapse of the oil price (as a renowned analyst said – and I quote roughly – at over 100 dollars the barrel Russia is a superpower and, under this level, it is an ordinary power).
In an analysis of the post-global order, Alexadr Dughin assessed that the leading elite existing in Russia who took shape during late Soviet times and in post-Soviet times do not meet at all the current chanllenges as they are the heirs of the bipolar and unipolar (globalist) order and of the thinking associated to it, as Russia is strongly connected to the globalist structure and the urgency on a short run is to establish a new and irreversible post-global world order.
India
The fifth world’s economy with more than one billion people, India is a world power in the making and a potential superpower. It benefits from an international influence on the rise and has in important say about global problems yet it is confronted with serious economic and social problems as a consequence of centuries of colonial exploitation.
India’s main strategic partners are the Russian Federation, Israel, Afghanistan, France. Certain analysts estimate that Israel will replace Russia in what concerns both the strategic partnership and armament deliveries.
Ever since achieving independence, India sought to be autonomous from foreign powers but China’s repeated incursions in the border area in the Himalayas forced it to seriously consider two options: alingment with China or search for a broader international coalition able to brake its neighbour’s geopolitical ambitions.
It is expected that in the future India’s preponderance on the international arena and its role in the new international order to be significantly on the rise.
Turkey
“Those who believe that we wiped out of our hearts the lands we withdrew with tears in the eyes one hundred years ago are wrong“, president Erdogan declared at mid-February, 2018, and that is probably the most evocative declaration which outlines the political vision of the current leader in Ankara for Turkey’s foreign and military policy for the coming years.Turkey’s foreign policy has yet to find the best solution between the anti-Western fluctuations and the neo-Ottoman dream of regional hegemony, on the one hand, and the need of good relations with the European Union, the US, China and even Iran, on the other.
Under Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey is determined to maximize its geopolitical position and role benefitting from the hesitations of the great international players. It is difficult to estimate to what extent it will achieve these plans, however it plays a more and more important role the the Middle East equation (Syria) and North Africa, including in the Mediterranean.
Romania in COVID-19 pandemic
Romania’s evolution in the first half of 2020 was marked, as it was the case with the other countries in the world, by COVID-19 pandemic with certain specific notes, some of them I would have not wanted to happen and which I will present in brief.
The Romanian political class proved again its weak capacity of properly managing the situation and no positive significant evolutions were recorded in comparison to the previous analysis[9], and the political actions were strongly influenced by the prospect of local elections (already postponed for 27 th of September, a uncertain date at the time of writing these lines) and parliamentary ones. Moreover, through their behavior toward the population, the political class proves that the 50 years of communist dictatorship continue to have strong influences.
The great majority of politicians consider themselves our masters (yet we are guilty as well when accepting this behavior) and act accordingly (during the alert status the president spoke several times on TV and his warning gestures were accompanied by directing his fingers to the audience), and the speeches of many dignitaries were full of cautionary words (a understatement for treats) and strengthened the feeling of distinction (they – the elected ones who are allowed everything; we, the mob, are to be subdued and not to think).
Incidentally, and this is probably an European record, during the first two months of the state of emergency, 120 million euro worth of fines were handed down and the compulsory actions are considered (at least this is what results from public declarations) a main modality of fighting the pandemic. It would seem thus that the population is very unruly and do not observe laws and rules but the truth is that the Romanians, in their great majority, as it is in the case in other European states, observe the legislation and the rules imposed by the authorities. The shortcomings of the education, which is a long process yet almost completely neglected during the last decades, are nevertheless taking their toll.
The danger represented by the pandemic is uninspiringly exagerated (SARS2-COV virus certainly exists and makes victims, no doubt about it) but the statistics present errors and are not convincing, while recognizing those errors comes late and that increases the lack of confidence and the lack of transparency contributes further to the lack of confidence. The authorities were late in recognizing that 94% of the deceased registered as deaths due to COVID-19 were suffering of at least another comorbidity. Forbiding the autopsies for establishing the causes of deaths[10], under the childish and untrue pretext of the danger of disseminating the virus was another reason for the lack of confidence.
As I said, age discrimination during the first period of the emergency state was obvious as Romania was the only European country where those over 65 years of age were allowed to come out of the households 2 hours only and later 3 hours only a day, in a time interval fixed by the authorities and that was a measure nobody apologized for afterwards.
Among the important personalities of the country it was only the president of the Romanian Academy, Ioan-Aurel Pop, who had a clear position of condemning this measure[11], a measure which should have rallied a much bigger number of people than it did. The discrimination goes on by the non-observance of the pensions law which provides for their increase as of the 1st of September, a law the president announced already the government cannot observe as a consequence of the economic situation created by the epidemic. Having in mind that in Romania pensions represents around 8% of the GDP (in the EU’s member states it represents 12%) and the pensions indexation with the inflation provided for by law have to be enacted every year in January, that has been enacted in 2019 in September only and no news of it in 2020 so far. “Nothing is more valuable than old men’s advice”, as the old Romanian saying goes, and that was often used with pride until some decades ago. It seems that they wish to replace it by the syntagm “Let he who has old people around him kill them”.
We register violations of the human rights and liberties with a frenzy worth a better cause in the new law No. 136/2020, “through which the physician recommends your lock-down, the physician decides your confinement, the physician recommends the prolongation of your confinement… you cannot leave the location where you have been forcefully locked-down… The physician replaced even the judiciary and might deprive you of freedom, no matter what you wish[12]”.
During this time, deforestation goes on unhindered (three hectares an hour according to December 2019 data), in spite of the EU warnings, the number of unemployed comes close to 900,000 people, the economy registers losses on which the authorities do not offer a clear situarion and the foreign loans reached around 10 bil. Euro in the first half of 2020.
It seems that among state institutions the Constitutional Court and the Ombudsman only remained defenders of the human rights and freedoms in Romania.
The pandemic revealed another sad truth: the Romanian state is not able to secure employment for the existing workforce. In full state of emergency, thousands of Romanian traveled by chartered planes to Germany – which was in its turn affected by the pandemic – to harvest asparagus (what they were doing since many years), Austria made available a special train for bringing back the social caretakers from Romania. That way, the situation of tens of thousands of Romanians working in the farms and sloughterhouses in Germany, the Netherlands and Great Britain, the caretakers in Austria and Italy, the harvesters of strawberries in Spain were revealed to the general public. The Romanian government did not react on the subject; probably our politicians do not realize that they may reach the point of being treated at the Brussels headquarters the way the Romanian workers are treated abroad.
I conclude optimistically with the promises of president Klaus Iohannis made at the 29th of July press conference:“We had a meeting on the issue of the European funds. We discussed the ways Romania can turn to better use the European funds worth 80 billion euro. We determined the priority domains. We want Romania to prosper and that can be done only through huge investments. Our top priority is investing in the infrastructure. We have funds for highways and railroads, to modernize the energy infrastructure, for investing in education and health.”
Authorities offered us so far many promises and spoke always about the future: we’ll do, we’ll prepare, we are about to, in a short time. We will see what the future has in store for us, yet we should not adopt a passive attitude. A coagulation factor for moving things forward, to the better, must be created.
Educaton, economic development and democracy should be Romania’s three main action fields in the future and not petty political behavior with no vision.
Short conclusions
The COVID-19 pandemic seems to hasten the evolution towards multilateralism yet it will not be achieved in an idylic way but through a global competition for power, influence and resources where the resentments and historical frustrations feeding the desire to revenge cannot be neglected.
The observance of the human individual rights and freedoms, which were agreed upon and formalized in the UN Charter after WWII, remain entirely valid yet they are at risk and the mistakes of the past must not be repeated.
The states and the markets will witness new changes in the political and economic fields in a way which will be noticeable only in time and, for instance, many corporations relocate their production facilities from China. Inequalities will grow and new failed states will emerge.
It will be not difficult for China, under the current circumstances, to become the sole world superpower yet the problem is how long will it succeed in maintaining that position. Multilateralism will win in the end.
The shortcomings of the educational process globally will be obvious, yet AI will contribute to taking over many activities performed currently by people with important existential consequences (it is foreseen already for 2020 worldwide that the number of emploees will decline by 25 million as a result of the AI development).
The development of 5G and 6G communications and of IoT will have important effects on the evolution of not only the interhuman relations but also of the international ones. There is a danger that these developments be used for curtailing the human rights and for unacceptable intrusions in the private life.
I believe that opting between being and having is vital for the mankind’s evolution and future and this is why I retake here president Emil Constantinescu’s conclusion[13]: “Politics in the knowledge society and in the globalised world of the future should be constructed as a complex vision on the future, based on a new dialogue about the human values. The current global medical crisis, which brought to the forefront not our wealth but our life, dictates us brutally to opt between having or being. The creation of a new arbitration between power and knowlege is needed to reconfigure a framework in which each individual be able not only to be but also to become”.
Anyway, Thucydides wad right some 2,500 years ago, is right now and will be probably right on a long term future.
About the author:
Corneliu Pivariu. Photographer: Ionus Paraschiv.
Corneliu Pivariu Military Intelligence and International Relations Senior Expert
A highly decorated retired two-star general of the Romanian army, during two decades he has led one of the most influential magazines on geopolitics and international relations in Eastern Europe, the bilingual journal Geostrategic Pulse.
[1] Ioan-Aurel Pop, president of the Romanian Academy in an interview granted to Gazeta de Cluj magazine, 2020.
[2]The states and international organizations strived so much to make the world a better place so that now a new billionaire emerges every two days and the income of the richest 2,200 billionaires increased by 12% annually; 1% of the richest people of the planet own incomes equal to those of the poorest 3.8 billion people in the world.
[3]The End of the World Order and American Foreign Policy, Council Special Report no.86, May 2020
[4] Speech delivered at the Annual reunion of Germany’s ambassadors, 2020.
[5]Agreement between the EU and China on Geographical Indexes (IG), approved on July 20th afte almost 10 years of negotiations
[10] Decision of the National Center for Monitoring and Controlling the Communicable Diseases (CNSCBT): “Death of a pacient confirmed with COVID-19 can not be attributed to a preexisting disease (e.g. cancer, haematological conditions, etc) and COVID-19 should be reported as cause of death, no matter the pre-existing medical conditions that might be suspected of favouring the COVID-19 severe evolution. COVID-19 should be mentioned on the death certificate as cause of death for all deceased persons to whom COVID-19 caused or is supposed to have caused or contributed to death.”
[11] His article The Dangerous Old People was published on the Academy’s site and was taken over by several daylies.
[12]http://teopal.ro The Tragedy of the Romanian Citizen: You Are Sick, You Are Guilty!
[13]Emil Constantinescu, President of Romania, 1996-2000, President of the Berlin Academy of Cultural Diplomacy. The world medical crisis – a historical chance for a new global political project
